Play Offs - As Things Stand
So at half time Sheff Wed 3-1 up at Milton Keynes. Leaving a possibility of match 46 coming round and Milton Keynes knowing they are definitely finishing 3rd and resting players for play offs (I would in same position!). That game is away at Plymouth so for me, leapfrogging Plymouth is really important for us on Monday. Lots of twists and turns left of course but wow how unbelievably tight is this league right now!?
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Yep, that's the very real knock on of MK losing tonight. Still hope they can get back into this one.
But there's every chance we'll have to beat Wednesday.
I think we have to beat Wednesday now and we possibly need to win all three of the final games,
Not sure Plymouth are going to win many points out of their last three points so not sure we need to beat Wednesday. This is going to the last game.
And I suspect there are even scenarios where we win all three and still don’t make the playoffs. As I tell my kids, we are ‘on the outside looking in’ at the moment. The teams around us either have more points, better goal difference or games in hand on us. Making the playoffs is not solely in our hands any more since we dropped points at Gillingham. I think we need to catch Plymouth or get properly ahead of Sunderland going into the final day so that a win at Burton will see us in playoffs.
I would not like to be relying on results elsewhere going our way on the final day of the season. This isn’t a bottom of league 2 Bristol Rovers we are battling with for a place, this is Wednesday and Sunderland for heaven’s sake. But let’s be honest, Gaz loves a backs to the wall fight and he and Dobbo are brilliant in these scenarios.
Can I just say I f’n hate The Franchise, the one game they had to win and they f**k it up. Thank you very much.
Sheffield Wednesday are on a roll at the moment…the only way I can see us getting anything from this game is to nullify Bannan. He is a superb player and the heartbeat of the team. Perhaps try and man mark him out of the game, Gape following him everywhere like a lapdog and Scowen freed up for his usual marauding role. I’d take it going down to the last game with a win at Burton to secure a play off place.
I think we'd all take needing a win v Burton to make the play offs.
It'll be quite a surreal game for Bayo as the clock ticks down, knowing it could well be his last game, but there being the chance something changes to unlock another couple of games at least
Best case scenario, if we were to win our next two games, is that we could clinch a playoff spot on the Tuesday prior to the final set of fixtures. Wednesday and Sunderland don’t play their game in hand until then.
For that to happen, a lot of results need to go in our favour (not least our own) so it’s incredibly unlikely that it won’t go down to the last game even if we do our part and get 6 points against Wimbledon and Wednesday.
If (yes, another if) Sunderland beat Plymouth tomorrow then winning all our games would guaranteed a top 6 finish. If (one more for luck) Plymouth win then that still might not be enough, with the potential to miss out on goal difference.
All the maths has been done in my head on a Sunday morning but I think I’m right.
It’s a cliche but let’s just focus on our job. We may not be able to confirm a playoff spot over the next two games but we can certainly lose it.
Sheffield Wednesday haven’t been keeping clean sheets lately, where as we have. They have 1 clean sheet in their last 6 games (a 0-0 with Gills) and haven’t won to nil since they demolished Cambridge 7 games ago.
Wycombe, on the other hand, have been solid at the back defensively since the mid-season blip.
Let’s hope we can come away from Plough Lane with 3 points tomorrow and make the match on Saturday a six pointer (not literally, Alan Swann).
I understand your caution but think you’re being rather pessimistic. We aren’t ‘on the outside looking in’ we’re in a play off place. We’re just 2 points behind Plymouth who are 4th, and on the same points as Wednesday and Sunderland with a similar GD (better than Sunderland, 2 goals behind Wednesday although both, as you say, have a game in hand on us). I think we can overtake Plymouth which is why it was so important to beat them on Friday.
Plymouth are definitely the ones to catch to secure a spot.
Last 3 games all against promotion rivals, there’s a chance they might not get another win.
There's also a chance they win all three ?
A crazy league.
What a time to be alive
I have a strong feeling that Plymouth are going to be the team to miss out. Their remaining games are easily the hardest on paper and their for, isn’t great
There's a certain type of nerves that settle on you at this time of the season. I wouldn't swap it for anything.
Does anyone else keep checking the table, just to see if somehow we've gained an extra point?
Yes! I must have checked it a hundred times this weekend. I’m adding up, working out who needs to beat who etc. This is the most exciting L1 season in a long time.
Same here on the table checking. Am I right in thinking that, mathematically, only Wigan are guaranteed not to be at least in the playoffs? Virtually, anyway, if not literally.
My optimism is that this is just the sort of scenario that Gaz thrives in…on to Monday!
Gaz has called Monday a must-win
Good call.
I love Ainsworth
The sun has come out over here and everyone is loopy. It's the most wonderful time, of the year
The table checking thing... I do it because I randomly think of a ‘what if’ sequence of results, but there are still too many teams involved to keep their individual table stats in my head at the same time. My most recent one was trying to work out a sequence of results that would have 4, 5, or even 6 teams all on the same points after 46 games.
All I know is that bookmakers were wrong to have us 9/2 to be top six last summer..and are still underestimating us at 8/11 now
The only thing we can do is take 9 points out of 9 in our remaining games. If we don’t make the playoffs with 85 points we’ll be the unluckiest team in League 1 history.
I think you are spot on with your earlier analysis. Hard to see Plymouth surviving with their fixtures.
Though I hope and pray we get to the play-offs and triumph...but if not, given our recent history, being a League One team challenging for the top every season ain't a bad thing in my opinion.
My thoughts exactly