I have no idea, it’s so completely different from the current situation I couldn’t have anything more than a wild guess. Most likely some kind of informal consensus between legacy Labour and Tory parties, but possibly the Tory brand is so damaged they wouldn’t be a major player.
Makerfield, which is about as far from marginal as you can get. We are unfortunate enough to have had a non-local Labour candidate imposed against the will of the constituency party. The last MP but one (before my time here) described himself as the ‘Socialist MP for Makerfield’ - I suspect the next one will not.
And of note he was a Minister for the entirety of the period when Blair was PM. I doubt there will be any self-described socialist ministers this time around (other than Angela Rayner who he is stuck with.)
Looked him up. Honestly can’t say I remember his name.
My seat is Devon South West this time (boundary changes). Looks like it might be a marginal this time. First time in my life my vote might actually make a difference - indeed only at pretty recent local elections have I voted for winning candidates (a green and an independent).
I guess I was really asking whether the socialist or social democrat party would be more likely to do better but over complicated. Never mind - doesn’t really matter.
Well as I have been actively campaigning for the Liberal Democrat’s up here I will be voting Liberal Democratic. Current seat prediction is we will get 2.7% so another lost deposit…
(As an aside going back to roadside posters I have a garage full* of ‘Liberal Democrats Winning Here’ placards and love the irony of sticking a few up)
We are in a new constituency which has turned what was pre-2019 a safe Labour seat into a basically conservative leaning seat (we have a current Tory MP) so did consider tactical voting for Labour this time, but Electoralcalculus.co.uk has Labour on 45% ahead of Reform (eek) 25% so I think I’m safe. (And why break the habit of 45 years voting in every election and never having had my vote mean anything)
Aldershot comes under BBC Surrey and I'll be talking to the BBC Surrey/Sussex mid-morning show after 10.30am on Friday. The town has been always voted blue and has been seen as 'working class Tory' since Thatcher times. The Army vote is important, but not decisive and a chunk will lean towards Reform. But Rushmoor Borough Council was taken by Labour in May, and all the momentum in the General Election race seems with the Labour candidate this time round. It will be one of the surprises of the night in the South if the Conservatives manage to hang on.
By the way, for those planning to watch the results, Wycombe is expected to be one of the latest to declare with the result not expected until after 6am on Friday morning.
Hunt is very vulnerable - the boundary changes haven't helped him; he's facing the same push-back that all Tory candidates are facing; the Lib Dems have piled in with activists and cash and he's had to put in £100k of his own money to prop up his campaign. Lots of my colleagues live in the seat and some were surprised he was even standing this time. Bookies have the Lib Dem, Paul Follows, a well-known local council leader 6-4 on.
If my twitter feed is anything to go by The libdems don't really need to campaign at all. So many posts about tactical voting and which seats will stop the Tories from coming second if people vote for Takeshi's Castle.
Listening to the radio the other day talking about the US election and how the massive swing towards Trump purely on the basis of 'it's not Biden' will likely put The Donald in The Whitehouse. If we are honest our election is no different that Labour are going to win purely as they are not the Tories. Six weeks ago Starmer could have appeared on live TV and punched puppies and would still have a landslide purely as he is not the incumbent.
Be nice to have an election where this was different, might see more positive campaigning.
I did. What is also evident is that you can easily swap out the words for Home Office for HMRC for Environment for Social Security etc etc. Under funded, poorly managed, totally ineffective.
But do you believe Labour has done enough to turn some heads away from Reform when it comes to this issue? It's easy to convince people that the Tories aren't the answer? As there is no magic bullet I am not convinced Starmer has communicated this effectively.
Hi - yes. I'm an Associate Professor of Politics at the University of Surrey. I was at Reading for 10 years before that - but honed my communication skills writing for the WWFC match programme in the 1990s. Unless they bump me (quite likely!), I'll be on the BBC News channel this evening some time after 8pm.
While there are some similarities as you describe, there are a lot of huge differences which outweigh them IMO.
Most obviously being the outright racism of the American right, and strong evangelical Christian support for the Republican party, despite having a philandering, cheating, sex offender as their leader.
For the vocal politicos on America it's essentially a cold civil war scenario over there, and with the flagrant politicization of their justice system it's quite scary if Trump gets back in.
Would be quite funny if Biden used yesterdays ludicrous supreme court ruling to officially order a drone strike on Trump and the Supreme court justices before stepping down, seeing as that would now be immune from legal prosecution.
I disapprove of (some of) what (some of) you say (some of the time), but I will defend to the death your right to say it (in most circumstances). Voltaire for the 21st century.
With Labour about to take power and reform the planning process, the access road, second tier on the home end and the chairlift should be pushed through in months, funded by Mikhael’s Billions. Oh what a time to be alive!
(until Farage’s Jackbooted goons take power in ‘29 but what a glorious five years we’ll have before Rome burns)
One of the biggest challenges for whoever forms the next government is surely to assuage the concerns of the vocal substantial minority on the fringes whilst steering policies/actions back towards the centre ground, this is the only way to diminish the pulling power of the likes of Farage, Galloway etc.
It is a tough task as the constant danger is you get accused of flip-flopping, avoiding the tough questions etc. (sounds a bit like Starmer for most of this campaign)
I would never accuse anyone of talking bollocks just because I disagree with their opinions but I'm not keen on your habit of using dehumanising language about people you don't consider to have your own level of intellect or moral integrity.
Comments
I have no idea, it’s so completely different from the current situation I couldn’t have anything more than a wild guess. Most likely some kind of informal consensus between legacy Labour and Tory parties, but possibly the Tory brand is so damaged they wouldn’t be a major player.
Makerfield, which is about as far from marginal as you can get. We are unfortunate enough to have had a non-local Labour candidate imposed against the will of the constituency party. The last MP but one (before my time here) described himself as the ‘Socialist MP for Makerfield’ - I suspect the next one will not.
And of note he was a Minister for the entirety of the period when Blair was PM. I doubt there will be any self-described socialist ministers this time around (other than Angela Rayner who he is stuck with.)
Looked him up. Honestly can’t say I remember his name.
My seat is Devon South West this time (boundary changes). Looks like it might be a marginal this time. First time in my life my vote might actually make a difference - indeed only at pretty recent local elections have I voted for winning candidates (a green and an independent).
I guess I was really asking whether the socialist or social democrat party would be more likely to do better but over complicated. Never mind - doesn’t really matter.
Well as I have been actively campaigning for the Liberal Democrat’s up here I will be voting Liberal Democratic. Current seat prediction is we will get 2.7% so another lost deposit…
(As an aside going back to roadside posters I have a garage full* of ‘Liberal Democrats Winning Here’ placards and love the irony of sticking a few up)
We are in a new constituency which has turned what was pre-2019 a safe Labour seat into a basically conservative leaning seat (we have a current Tory MP) so did consider tactical voting for Labour this time, but Electoralcalculus.co.uk has Labour on 45% ahead of Reform (eek) 25% so I think I’m safe. (And why break the habit of 45 years voting in every election and never having had my vote mean anything)
Aldershot comes under BBC Surrey and I'll be talking to the BBC Surrey/Sussex mid-morning show after 10.30am on Friday. The town has been always voted blue and has been seen as 'working class Tory' since Thatcher times. The Army vote is important, but not decisive and a chunk will lean towards Reform. But Rushmoor Borough Council was taken by Labour in May, and all the momentum in the General Election race seems with the Labour candidate this time round. It will be one of the surprises of the night in the South if the Conservatives manage to hang on.
By the way, for those planning to watch the results, Wycombe is expected to be one of the latest to declare with the result not expected until after 6am on Friday morning.
MJS, that is interesting. I live in Southwest Surrey (Now Godalming and Ash) and am wondering if Jeremy Hunt might lose his seat.
How do you find out the expected result declaration times?
Hunt is very vulnerable - the boundary changes haven't helped him; he's facing the same push-back that all Tory candidates are facing; the Lib Dems have piled in with activists and cash and he's had to put in £100k of his own money to prop up his campaign. Lots of my colleagues live in the seat and some were surprised he was even standing this time. Bookies have the Lib Dem, Paul Follows, a well-known local council leader 6-4 on.
Meanwhile, several of the papers have done estimated declaration times - I'm going with the Indie: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-general-election-results-timing-b2571952.html
We'll soon find out if the libdem strategy to treat this election like an audition for Takeshi's Castle is a work of genius or not.
Apart from these few things, the Tories haven’t done too badly…
https://youtu.be/cKAeO-5saqQ?si=qHMgH_2QBc00yCw4
Jonathan Pie on 14 years of Conservative Rule
If my twitter feed is anything to go by The libdems don't really need to campaign at all. So many posts about tactical voting and which seats will stop the Tories from coming second if people vote for Takeshi's Castle.
It's brutal isn't it - but aptly sums up the mood of so many.
The poll is up https://gasroom.org/discussion/8953/gasroom-general-election-poll/p1?new=1
I'll see if Sky / BBC etc want to feed it onto their trackers.
I'll be voting Green, I'm only in the Mid-Bucks area by a couple of hundred yards. Not inspired by any of the big parties.
Best leader I have seen in terms of likeability is the Plaid Cymru chap, Rhun ap Iowerth.
Listening to the radio the other day talking about the US election and how the massive swing towards Trump purely on the basis of 'it's not Biden' will likely put The Donald in The Whitehouse. If we are honest our election is no different that Labour are going to win purely as they are not the Tories. Six weeks ago Starmer could have appeared on live TV and punched puppies and would still have a landslide purely as he is not the incumbent.
Be nice to have an election where this was different, might see more positive campaigning.
@MJS May I ask what you do / why you're on various radio shows?
@TheAndyGrahamFanClub This is worth a watch: https://x.com/JonathanPieNews/status/1798648340110065669
I did. What is also evident is that you can easily swap out the words for Home Office for HMRC for Environment for Social Security etc etc. Under funded, poorly managed, totally ineffective.
But do you believe Labour has done enough to turn some heads away from Reform when it comes to this issue? It's easy to convince people that the Tories aren't the answer? As there is no magic bullet I am not convinced Starmer has communicated this effectively.
Hi - yes. I'm an Associate Professor of Politics at the University of Surrey. I was at Reading for 10 years before that - but honed my communication skills writing for the WWFC match programme in the 1990s. Unless they bump me (quite likely!), I'll be on the BBC News channel this evening some time after 8pm.
Can you get me Matt Goodwin's autograph?
I. So. Can't.
You definitely aren't the weakest link
While there are some similarities as you describe, there are a lot of huge differences which outweigh them IMO.
Most obviously being the outright racism of the American right, and strong evangelical Christian support for the Republican party, despite having a philandering, cheating, sex offender as their leader.
For the vocal politicos on America it's essentially a cold civil war scenario over there, and with the flagrant politicization of their justice system it's quite scary if Trump gets back in.
Would be quite funny if Biden used yesterdays ludicrous supreme court ruling to officially order a drone strike on Trump and the Supreme court justices before stepping down, seeing as that would now be immune from legal prosecution.
Fantastic, please do tell me off if I talk bollocks in this thread!
Are we all allowed to do this?
in all threads?
going to be busy….
I disapprove of (some of) what (some of) you say (some of the time), but I will defend to the death your right to say it (in most circumstances). Voltaire for the 21st century.
Form an orderly queue!
With Labour about to take power and reform the planning process, the access road, second tier on the home end and the chairlift should be pushed through in months, funded by Mikhael’s Billions. Oh what a time to be alive!
(until Farage’s Jackbooted goons take power in ‘29 but what a glorious five years we’ll have before Rome burns)
Mr Putin has arrived in Astana this morning. Will he pop in to see Mikhail?
One of the biggest challenges for whoever forms the next government is surely to assuage the concerns of the vocal substantial minority on the fringes whilst steering policies/actions back towards the centre ground, this is the only way to diminish the pulling power of the likes of Farage, Galloway etc.
It is a tough task as the constant danger is you get accused of flip-flopping, avoiding the tough questions etc. (sounds a bit like Starmer for most of this campaign)
I would never accuse anyone of talking bollocks just because I disagree with their opinions but I'm not keen on your habit of using dehumanising language about people you don't consider to have your own level of intellect or moral integrity.