@DevC said:
Could you briefly explain why you feel WPPG is less valid than PPG from a statistical theory point of view @username
I think it's because being at home or away is one of many variables that can affect a result, and it's arbitrary to select one and not others so better not to have any
I still don't understand that argument that away wins are weighted more heavily than home wins under it mind. As far as I can see they have equal weighting
I think I might put together a comparison of the effect of playing home / away against the effect of opposition strength, I'm sure the numbers will be stark and it might even be useful for the club to be able to demonstrate....
The bbc article linked above actually says that the EFL agreed an unweighted PPG system quite clearly. I’d read that article (which I assume was updated more recently) before I came here so was surprised to see all the bebatr about weighted PPG being agreed
Is it simply the points gained home divided by the number home games, same for away and that a formulae that extrapolates to having played all the games. This is one I have seen that Oxford propose as it sees them 3rd
OR
does it consider the home/away played PLUS the relative positions of those you have played? And if so what is the weighting for having played Coventry or Southend? Are Coventry 3 times more difficult than Southend or 4, or 2? Is it a linear weighting along the positions or some form of log scale? My attempt at a simplified version of such a model sees Fleetwood sneak into 3rd
I would suggest that a true WPPG should be based on the latter, but I have no idea on how to model all the possible parameters, nor how to get any agreement on it across the division(s) - in which case PPG might be less argumentative.
just read above and this seems to be an echo of @Username so apologies there - you beat me to it
@Wendoverman said:
Not that fussed about the process but let me know when we know where we finished.
An utter shambles, I'm with you @Wendoverman, I have hardly checked in to the gasroom this week as I knew the debate would be endless drivel & conjecture. Not anyones fault btw, given there is no football to debate, Just picked up the salient points, that the Posh chairman is a self serving arsewipe, gathering a mini army of revolutionists aka richer clubs. still not sure how OUFC fit into the "wealthy" category as they appear to be forever summonsed to court by HMRC for unpaid taxes. Gaz & the Couhigs are class & the EFL couldn't decide wether to go to the toilet or not. Is that about right?
If the EFL had any spherical, they would tell DA & his band of rebels to sit down, shut the F**k up and go with the flow.
By my reckoning (@username to confirm) we would be below Oxford if home/away weighting was used to PPG even if it was further refined by weighting top half, top third or top quarter results and remaining fixtures.
None of which matters, it would seem as EFL appears to have confirmed non weighted applies. This is very good news.
Next step is to get confirmed that three will go up.
Then we need to get play offs cancelled (if Peterborough were in our place I wouldn’t put it past them deliberately getting a couple of disposable squad players infected to force this). Ultimate shithousery?
If our league system dictated that you get more points for an away win than a home win, WPPG would clearly be the fairest method. But it doesn’t. It’s 3pts for a win, home or away so PPG is surely fairer? Delving into other issues like the relative strength of opposition opens up a minefield. One of the beauties of football is that the highest placed team in the division could lose to the team at the bottom. If we must decide final placings in an artificial way, it has to be PPG.
The "weighted" method is still essentially keeping 3 points for a win though isn't it?
It's just 2 separate calculations for home and away.
If it was actually assigning more points for home or away results it might be more of a strange method
It's more the way that if you're start dipping into sub filters, how far do you go.
The crux of the matter is that "fair" went out the window when the season could not finished in front of fans, with the proper flow of games. Even finishing the season BCD changes the balance of home and away with the same conditions (fans present).
I have no problem at all with Oxford arguing weighted PPG, or anyone arguing a case which suits them, as it is a natural bias. What I do have a problem with, is the gang of six holding their interests above all of the smaller clubs, and throwing their toys out of the pram, as if the virus was instigated with the sole purpose of inconveniencing them. If they don't belong in this "tinpot division", they should have settled it on the pitch long before now.
This promotion/relegation is an issue, but an issue far below the virus itself, or, on a football level, the existential threat facing many clubs. I don't blame any fans for being biased, or for being stuck with their owners, but while these particular men are in charge of these six particular clubs, I don't think other fans will forget, especially if this results in deeper financial holes that can be ill afforded, or a rush to finish a season without proper safety precautions.
At the extreme to illustrate the difference between ppg and wppg. A team has won all 21 of its home games but lost all 22 of its away games. It’s last home game can’t be played. What would be the expected points from the last game?
PPG would say 1.5 Pts (actually just below)
WPPG would say 3pts on basis that you’ve won every other home game.
Neither is right or wrong. Just a judgement call which method to use.
It is almost inconceivable that EFL would use different methods for two different divisions.
It does seem strange to sort out league 1 and 2 separately, when they very obviously have to sync up relegation and promotion wise, plus the obvious nature of being under the same league system.
But then you can say that why should championship clubs get to play games out just because they have more money.
By the way worth noting that with PPG now looking the preferred method, Peterborough would not make the play offs if the regular season finishes early.
I've always thought Mark Palios comes across very well. A very level-headed response from a chairman with interests at the foot of the table who you could probably forgive for speaking out more strongly.
If it does go this way I will be more than happy if only 2 go up and we stay in League 1 next season.
For me it will mean that when we look back in years to come that we finished the 19/20 league season in (what was at the time) our highest ever league standing.
Regardless of how we got to that stage, for a club of our size and precarious financial position to finish 3rd in League 1 is a massive achievement and one well worth celebrating (as best and as tactfully as possibly in the circumstances).
We can’t be far from the 1 year anniversary of one of my most depressing days as a Wycombe supporter. The clip of GA after he had to release the likes of Darius and Tyson go. Someone on here mentioned he looked broken - and it honestly looked like that.
For 6 months or so it was a dream season (with a bit of a nightmare around Christmas). Finishing 3rd will, I think, allow us to better reflect that in years to come.
Promotion either as 3rd or by winning any play-offs would be nice but tempered so much by in all probability not going to see us play for much of the year. Only 2 up or losing in the play-offs (although I do hope not against Oxford) would be fine in the grand scheme of things.
I do realise I am somewhat jumping the gun a bit but I would be shocked if we do end up fulfilling our fixtures.
@DevC said:
By the way worth noting that with PPG now looking the preferred method, Peterborough would not make the play offs if the regular season finishes early.
@bookertease said:
If it does go this way I will be more than happy if only 2 go up and we stay in League 1 next season.
For me it will mean that when we look back in years to come that we finished the 19/20 league season in (what was at the time) our highest ever league standing.
Regardless of how we got to that stage, for a club of our size and precarious financial position to finish 3rd in League 1 is a massive achievement and one well worth celebrating (as best and as tactfully as possibly in the circumstances).
We can’t be far from the 1 year anniversary of one of my most depressing days as a Wycombe supporter. The clip of GA after he had to release the likes of Darius and Tyson go. Someone on here mentioned he looked broken - and it honestly looked like that.
For 6 months or so it was a dream season (with a bit of a nightmare around Christmas). Finishing 3rd will, I think, allow us to better reflect that in years to come.
Promotion either as 3rd or by winning any play-offs would be nice but tempered so much by in all probability not going to see us play for much of the year. Only 2 up or losing in the play-offs (although I do hope not against Oxford) would be fine in the grand scheme of things.
I do realise I am somewhat jumping the gun a bit but I would be shocked if we do end up fulfilling our fixtures.
Agree with a lot of that, and there's absolutely no chance of finishing the games.
But there seems to be a big likelihood of them at least attempting play off games.
Whether it's 1 leg, 2 legs, or what have we, 4 teams playing a max of 3 games each, seems reasonable.
Not the full season, not home/away, no crowds blah blah, but there has to be an outcome, and that's the nearest one there is to get the season finished on merit and not on the whims of the league and the big money teams
@Malone said:
Agree with a lot of that, and there's absolutely no chance of finishing the games.
We are going to play games at some point so why not just wait. If we never play again who finishes where is for the only time irrelevant.
I do get the impression that us being in the promotion mix and showing some class when asked, the bigger teams are really showing their full bully boy tactics. After the week we've had I'm more certsin than ever at least one team is going to go legal.
@Malone said:
Agree with a lot of that, and there's absolutely no chance of finishing the games.
We are going to play games at some point so why not just wait. If we never play again who finishes where is for the only time irrelevant.
I do get the impression that us being in the promotion mix and showing some class when asked, the bigger teams are really showing their full bully boy tactics. After the week we've had I'm more certsin than ever at least one team is going to go legal.
How long do you propose waiting for?
Until we can 100% play the rest of this season and any future season without a delay?
That doesn't work in the real world, as you have 1,400 players out of contract in 6 weeks, and the host of problems that brings. They have to move things on, and believe that things will go the right direction and that some sort of season will take place in the usual time frame for 2020/21
@Malone said:
Agree with a lot of that, and there's absolutely no chance of finishing the games.
We are going to play games at some point so why not just wait. If we never play again who finishes where is for the only time irrelevant.
I do get the impression that us being in the promotion mix and showing some class when asked, the bigger teams are really showing their full bully boy tactics. After the week we've had I'm more certsin than ever at least one team is going to go legal.
I favoured just waiting but it won't happen due to impatience and contracts expiring.
As soon as each clubs season is ruled to be over , with no restart nailed down you'll have players released.
Good point about it going legal, may be a good time to be owned by lawyers.
@Malone said:
Agree with a lot of that, and there's absolutely no chance of finishing the games.
We are going to play games at some point so why not just wait. If we never play again who finishes where is for the only time irrelevant.
I do get the impression that us being in the promotion mix and showing some class when asked, the bigger teams are really showing their full bully boy tactics. After the week we've had I'm more certsin than ever at least one team is going to go legal.
How long do you propose waiting for?
Until we can 100% play the rest of this season and any future season without a delay?
That doesn't work in the real world, as you have 1,400 players out of contract in 6 weeks, and the host of problems that brings. They have to move things on, and believe that things will go the right direction and that some sort of season will take place in the usual time frame for 2020/21
You're spot on with the second paragraph though.
This player contract thing has got to be easier to sort out than deciding on an artificial ending to the season. A short term contract for some. A rule on any new player registrations.
The clubs are more equal on this than any end game. Why aren't they spending any energy on it?
Comments
I think it's because being at home or away is one of many variables that can affect a result, and it's arbitrary to select one and not others so better not to have any
I still don't understand that argument that away wins are weighted more heavily than home wins under it mind. As far as I can see they have equal weighting
True Mr Middle but better chance if 3rd than 6th.
Easy option not to relegate Stevenage and maybe pragmatic too. Looks far from certain for example that Macclesfield will make next season
I think I might put together a comparison of the effect of playing home / away against the effect of opposition strength, I'm sure the numbers will be stark and it might even be useful for the club to be able to demonstrate....
@Username Definitely send it to the club
https://www.efl.com/news/2020/may/efl-statement-latest-update/
I've just signed myself up for an exciting Friday night of Excel haven't I
No mention of weighted PPG here
Unweighted seems the latest
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1261311234697302016
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1261312040053997569
The bbc article linked above actually says that the EFL agreed an unweighted PPG system quite clearly. I’d read that article (which I assume was updated more recently) before I came here so was surprised to see all the bebatr about weighted PPG being agreed
What is WPPG?
Is it simply the points gained home divided by the number home games, same for away and that a formulae that extrapolates to having played all the games. This is one I have seen that Oxford propose as it sees them 3rd
OR
does it consider the home/away played PLUS the relative positions of those you have played? And if so what is the weighting for having played Coventry or Southend? Are Coventry 3 times more difficult than Southend or 4, or 2? Is it a linear weighting along the positions or some form of log scale? My attempt at a simplified version of such a model sees Fleetwood sneak into 3rd
I would suggest that a true WPPG should be based on the latter, but I have no idea on how to model all the possible parameters, nor how to get any agreement on it across the division(s) - in which case PPG might be less argumentative.
just read above and this seems to be an echo of @Username so apologies there - you beat me to it
Not that fussed about the process but let me know when we know where we finished.
Come back in 3 weeks time @Wendoverman. We might have a date for the date that they decide to decide a date to decide
Testing would cost £140,000 a club apparently, but I assume play-off TV money would be enough to offset that?
An utter shambles, I'm with you @Wendoverman, I have hardly checked in to the gasroom this week as I knew the debate would be endless drivel & conjecture. Not anyones fault btw, given there is no football to debate, Just picked up the salient points, that the Posh chairman is a self serving arsewipe, gathering a mini army of revolutionists aka richer clubs. still not sure how OUFC fit into the "wealthy" category as they appear to be forever summonsed to court by HMRC for unpaid taxes. Gaz & the Couhigs are class & the EFL couldn't decide wether to go to the toilet or not. Is that about right?
If the EFL had any spherical, they would tell DA & his band of rebels to sit down, shut the F**k up and go with the flow.
By my reckoning (@username to confirm) we would be below Oxford if home/away weighting was used to PPG even if it was further refined by weighting top half, top third or top quarter results and remaining fixtures.
None of which matters, it would seem as EFL appears to have confirmed non weighted applies. This is very good news.
Next step is to get confirmed that three will go up.
Then we need to get play offs cancelled (if Peterborough were in our place I wouldn’t put it past them deliberately getting a couple of disposable squad players infected to force this). Ultimate shithousery?
If our league system dictated that you get more points for an away win than a home win, WPPG would clearly be the fairest method. But it doesn’t. It’s 3pts for a win, home or away so PPG is surely fairer? Delving into other issues like the relative strength of opposition opens up a minefield. One of the beauties of football is that the highest placed team in the division could lose to the team at the bottom. If we must decide final placings in an artificial way, it has to be PPG.
Why they don’t just play out the remaining games on FIFA 20 is beyond me.
The "weighted" method is still essentially keeping 3 points for a win though isn't it?
It's just 2 separate calculations for home and away.
If it was actually assigning more points for home or away results it might be more of a strange method
It's more the way that if you're start dipping into sub filters, how far do you go.
The crux of the matter is that "fair" went out the window when the season could not finished in front of fans, with the proper flow of games. Even finishing the season BCD changes the balance of home and away with the same conditions (fans present).
I have no problem at all with Oxford arguing weighted PPG, or anyone arguing a case which suits them, as it is a natural bias. What I do have a problem with, is the gang of six holding their interests above all of the smaller clubs, and throwing their toys out of the pram, as if the virus was instigated with the sole purpose of inconveniencing them. If they don't belong in this "tinpot division", they should have settled it on the pitch long before now.
This promotion/relegation is an issue, but an issue far below the virus itself, or, on a football level, the existential threat facing many clubs. I don't blame any fans for being biased, or for being stuck with their owners, but while these particular men are in charge of these six particular clubs, I don't think other fans will forget, especially if this results in deeper financial holes that can be ill afforded, or a rush to finish a season without proper safety precautions.
At the extreme to illustrate the difference between ppg and wppg. A team has won all 21 of its home games but lost all 22 of its away games. It’s last home game can’t be played. What would be the expected points from the last game?
PPG would say 1.5 Pts (actually just below)
WPPG would say 3pts on basis that you’ve won every other home game.
Neither is right or wrong. Just a judgement call which method to use.
It is almost inconceivable that EFL would use different methods for two different divisions.
It does seem strange to sort out league 1 and 2 separately, when they very obviously have to sync up relegation and promotion wise, plus the obvious nature of being under the same league system.
But then you can say that why should championship clubs get to play games out just because they have more money.
And then same argument up a league.
By the way worth noting that with PPG now looking the preferred method, Peterborough would not make the play offs if the regular season finishes early.
I've always thought Mark Palios comes across very well. A very level-headed response from a chairman with interests at the foot of the table who you could probably forgive for speaking out more strongly.
If it does go this way I will be more than happy if only 2 go up and we stay in League 1 next season.
For me it will mean that when we look back in years to come that we finished the 19/20 league season in (what was at the time) our highest ever league standing.
Regardless of how we got to that stage, for a club of our size and precarious financial position to finish 3rd in League 1 is a massive achievement and one well worth celebrating (as best and as tactfully as possibly in the circumstances).
We can’t be far from the 1 year anniversary of one of my most depressing days as a Wycombe supporter. The clip of GA after he had to release the likes of Darius and Tyson go. Someone on here mentioned he looked broken - and it honestly looked like that.
For 6 months or so it was a dream season (with a bit of a nightmare around Christmas). Finishing 3rd will, I think, allow us to better reflect that in years to come.
Promotion either as 3rd or by winning any play-offs would be nice but tempered so much by in all probability not going to see us play for much of the year. Only 2 up or losing in the play-offs (although I do hope not against Oxford) would be fine in the grand scheme of things.
I do realise I am somewhat jumping the gun a bit but I would be shocked if we do end up fulfilling our fixtures.
I love karma...
Agree with a lot of that, and there's absolutely no chance of finishing the games.
But there seems to be a big likelihood of them at least attempting play off games.
Whether it's 1 leg, 2 legs, or what have we, 4 teams playing a max of 3 games each, seems reasonable.
Not the full season, not home/away, no crowds blah blah, but there has to be an outcome, and that's the nearest one there is to get the season finished on merit and not on the whims of the league and the big money teams
We are going to play games at some point so why not just wait. If we never play again who finishes where is for the only time irrelevant.
I do get the impression that us being in the promotion mix and showing some class when asked, the bigger teams are really showing their full bully boy tactics. After the week we've had I'm more certsin than ever at least one team is going to go legal.
How long do you propose waiting for?
Until we can 100% play the rest of this season and any future season without a delay?
That doesn't work in the real world, as you have 1,400 players out of contract in 6 weeks, and the host of problems that brings. They have to move things on, and believe that things will go the right direction and that some sort of season will take place in the usual time frame for 2020/21
You're spot on with the second paragraph though.
I favoured just waiting but it won't happen due to impatience and contracts expiring.
As soon as each clubs season is ruled to be over , with no restart nailed down you'll have players released.
Good point about it going legal, may be a good time to be owned by lawyers.
This player contract thing has got to be easier to sort out than deciding on an artificial ending to the season. A short term contract for some. A rule on any new player registrations.
The clubs are more equal on this than any end game. Why aren't they spending any energy on it?