@chairboyscentral said:
I'd rather not go up having conducted ourselves with dignity than go up through self-serving. If the League can't spot the motive behind the proposal of weighted PPG, they're even more out of touch than we thought.
What is the motive and who is proposing this method?
@Vincey said:
I’m not saying anything will be based on that but it’s certainly not going to help our case.
Are you embarrassed by our 'on the pitch' antics?
Absolutely not. We play to our strengths and win football matches.
Then why won't it help our cause? It's not the social media posting opposition supporters who are voting unless I've missed something?
So Oxford United are pushing this? Is that proven or just lockdown paranoia?
It's not proven, but it would hardly be a surprise.
Ah. So you've made an assumption and passed it of as fact. I really should be better at spotting those after the last few years of Government and media reportings. I follow now.
For me it's win win for Wycombe if the league doesn't sit and wait as I advise. If a new season starts after the results of maths deciding our fate we definately don't have to play Oxford.
So Oxford United are pushing this? Is that proven or just lockdown paranoia?
It's not proven, but it would hardly be a surprise.
This article does suggest that it is A League 1 club who has proposed this initially and on the reasonable assumption that the club most likely to benefit from it is the one to be pushing for it I don’t think it is unreasonable to conclude that it is Oxford. And if I was an Oxford fan I would be glad they were.
The more interesting thing is that it appears to be gaining support as it is generally (on the few articles I’ve seen so in no ways a properly researched generality) perceived as a ‘fairer’ method than simple PPG. And to be fair it probably is, although as others point out, once you bring in one variable where do you stop?
The more interesting thing is that it appears to be gaining support as it is generally (on the few articles I’ve seen so in no ways a properly researched generality) perceived as a ‘fairer’ method than simple PPG. And to be fair it probably is, although as others point out, once you bring in one variable where do you stop?
I do have a little confidence that the EFL will consult actual sports statisticians to get a professional opinion on "fairness", and I'm extremely confident that if they do, the "weighted ppg" system would be binned immediately.
I have to do a significant amount of statistical analysis in a non sporting context, and in my professional opinion it's ridiculous.
To check I wasn't being understandably biased (or ignorant) , I sent the idea to a non -chairboy friend who wrote his 1st class statistics masters thesis on statistical modelling and analysis of cricket and football results,and then went on to work in the industry. He said if they used that system it would be "crazy" from a mathematical POV
This article does suggest that it is A League 1 club who has proposed this initially and on the reasonable assumption that the club most likely to benefit from it is the one to be pushing for it I don’t think it is unreasonable to conclude that it is Oxford. And if I was an Oxford fan I would be glad they were.
The more interesting thing is that it appears to be gaining support as it is generally (on the few articles I’ve seen so in no ways a properly researched generality) perceived as a ‘fairer’ method than simple PPG. And to be fair it probably is, although as others point out, once you bring in one variable where do you stop?
@Chris said:
The appeal of the ‘weighted’ ppg isn’t that it’s fair, it’s that it keeps the top 3 (and bottom 3) as it stands.
But it doesn't represent "sporting merit" as well as an already established and simpler method.
It's a deliberately manufactured less valid more complex fudge to fit a certain result. That's not how you analyse data. You pick the method, and accept the results, not pick the result and find a method
I disagree that it’s a ‘fairer’ method. Our league, like the majority of major leagues throughout the world, operates on the basis of three points for a win, home or away. Why change that principle?
@Chris said:
The appeal of the ‘weighted’ ppg isn’t that it’s fair, it’s that it keeps the top 3 (and bottom 3) as it stands.
But it doesn't represent "sporting merit" as well as an already established and simpler method.
It's a deliberately manufactured less valid more complex fudge to fit a certain result. That's not how you analyse data. You pick the method, and accept the results, not pick the result and find a method
Hence why this situation would be one of the few I would fully back any legal action, as we would have been cynically shafted by a choice not made in the interest of health or the wider football community
The more interesting thing is that it appears to be gaining support as it is generally (on the few articles I’ve seen so in no ways a properly researched generality) perceived as a ‘fairer’ method than simple PPG. And to be fair it probably is, although as others point out, once you bring in one variable where do you stop?
I do have a little confidence that the EFL will consult actual sports statisticians to get a professional opinion on "fairness", and I'm extremely confident that if they do, the "weighted ppg" system would be binned immediately.
I have to do a significant amount of statistical analysis in a non sporting context, and in my professional opinion it's ridiculous.
To check I wasn't being understandably biased (or ignorant) , I sent the idea to a non -chairboy friend who wrote his 1st class statistics masters thesis on statistical modelling and analysis of cricket and football results,and then went on to work in the industry. He said if they used that system it would be "crazy" from a mathematical POV
Could have sworn a chap did the exact same on the fb group the other day
The more interesting thing is that it appears to be gaining support as it is generally (on the few articles I’ve seen so in no ways a properly researched generality) perceived as a ‘fairer’ method than simple PPG. And to be fair it probably is, although as others point out, once you bring in one variable where do you stop?
I do have a little confidence that the EFL will consult actual sports statisticians to get a professional opinion on "fairness", and I'm extremely confident that if they do, the "weighted ppg" system would be binned immediately.
I have to do a significant amount of statistical analysis in a non sporting context, and in my professional opinion it's ridiculous.
To check I wasn't being understandably biased (or ignorant) , I sent the idea to a non -chairboy friend who wrote his 1st class statistics masters thesis on statistical modelling and analysis of cricket and football results,and then went on to work in the industry. He said if they used that system it would be "crazy" from a mathematical POV
Could have sworn a chap did the exact same on the fb group the other day
I think there's a fair few who have worked it out before too
Much harder to maintain anonymity if your point relies on personal experience!
The more interesting thing is that it appears to be gaining support as it is generally (on the few articles I’ve seen so in no ways a properly researched generality) perceived as a ‘fairer’ method than simple PPG. And to be fair it probably is, although as others point out, once you bring in one variable where do you stop?
I do have a little confidence that the EFL will consult actual sports statisticians to get a professional opinion on "fairness", and I'm extremely confident that if they do, the "weighted ppg" system would be binned immediately.
I have to do a significant amount of statistical analysis in a non sporting context, and in my professional opinion it's ridiculous.
To check I wasn't being understandably biased (or ignorant) , I sent the idea to a non -chairboy friend who wrote his 1st class statistics masters thesis on statistical modelling and analysis of cricket and football results,and then went on to work in the industry. He said if they used that system it would be "crazy" from a mathematical POV
Could have sworn a chap did the exact same on the fb group the other day
I think there's a fair few who have worked it out before too
Much harder to maintain anonymity if your point relies on personal experience!
Haha fair play. You're always one of the more reasoned chaps on there, so fair play.
The more interesting thing is that it appears to be gaining support as it is generally (on the few articles I’ve seen so in no ways a properly researched generality) perceived as a ‘fairer’ method than simple PPG. And to be fair it probably is, although as others point out, once you bring in one variable where do you stop?
I do have a little confidence that the EFL will consult actual sports statisticians to get a professional opinion on "fairness", and I'm extremely confident that if they do, the "weighted ppg" system would be binned immediately.
I have to do a significant amount of statistical analysis in a non sporting context, and in my professional opinion it's ridiculous.
To check I wasn't being understandably biased (or ignorant) , I sent the idea to a non -chairboy friend who wrote his 1st class statistics masters thesis on statistical modelling and analysis of cricket and football results,and then went on to work in the industry. He said if they used that system it would be "crazy" from a mathematical POV
Could have sworn a chap did the exact same on the fb group the other day
I think there's a fair few who have worked it out before too
Much harder to maintain anonymity if your point relies on personal experience!
Haha fair play. You're always one of the more reasoned chaps on there, so fair play.
@Malone said:
Really hope this "weighted" PPG turns out to be another totally off idea the media have jumped on.
The media are feeding off scraps as well, they need to still try and sell papers/ ads/ subscriptions without any sport to report on. I've seen some things which have been downright lies printed about the process having heard from people who were involved in the meetings where things were supposedly decided - and then lo and behold, they never happened.
@Malone said:
Really hope this "weighted" PPG turns out to be another totally off idea the media have jumped on.
The media are feeding off scraps as well, they need to still try and sell papers/ ads/ subscriptions without any sport to report on. I've seen some things which have been downright lies printed about the process having heard from people who were involved in the meetings where things were supposedly decided - and then lo and behold, they never happened.
Just the worry the likes of Henry Winter are getting on it now.
I still think there's a big issue that it'd bump up from 8th to 3rd one way, while the other way keeps the top 3 nice and cosy.
We all know we're a game in hand from being 3rd ourselves, but casuals won't see it that way.
@Malone said:
Really hope this "weighted" PPG turns out to be another totally off idea the media have jumped on.
The media are feeding off scraps as well, they need to still try and sell papers/ ads/ subscriptions without any sport to report on. I've seen some things which have been downright lies printed about the process having heard from people who were involved in the meetings where things were supposedly decided - and then lo and behold, they never happened.
Just the worry the likes of Henry Winter are getting on it now.
I still think there's a big issue that it'd bump up from 8th to 3rd one way, while the other way keeps the top 3 nice and cosy.
We all know we're a game in hand from being 3rd ourselves, but casuals won't see it that way.
Fingers crossed they aren't that pathetic to value potential bad PR from the uninformed over their own " sporting merit " rule
I know a couple of Oxford mathematicians, a quote from a stats tutor from their own university would be gold right now....
@Malone said:
We all know we're a game in hand from being 3rd ourselves, but casuals won't see it that way.
Why should what casuals think make any difference? It's not even that anyone gets full value for that game under any points per game argument.
No supporter needs to justify why their team benefited when no supporter has any influence over what is decided.
I am getting more worried by the day. Both by the horrible decisions our Governnent are going to make and the media need for a rush to a decision for sport and football specifically.
@Malone said:
We all know we're a game in hand from being 3rd ourselves, but casuals won't see it that way.
Why should what casuals think make any difference? It's not even that anyone gets full value for that game under any points per game argument.
No supporter needs to justify why their team benefited when no supporter has any influence over what is decided.
I am getting more worried by the day. Both by the horrible decisions our Governnent are going to make and the media need for a rush to a decision for sport and football specifically.
You frequently ask what the rush is.
What would you actually be waiting for exactly? A vaccine?
Put it all on hold for a year?
The rush is for the survival of clubs. I expect there'll be a huge number of players released and not many bought in as soon as the season is cancelled
@Malone said:
We all know we're a game in hand from being 3rd ourselves, but casuals won't see it that way.
Why should what casuals think make any difference? It's not even that anyone gets full value for that game under any points per game argument.
No supporter needs to justify why their team benefited when no supporter has any influence over what is decided.
I am getting more worried by the day. Both by the horrible decisions our Governnent are going to make and the media need for a rush to a decision for sport and football specifically.
You frequently ask what the rush is.
What would you actually be waiting for exactly? A vaccine?
Put it all on hold for a year?
I am happy to wait a year if that is when it is finally safe. I hope it comes sooner but I am now genuinely worried by a rush to try to reopen.
I love theatre, live music, restaurants and sport. Football is not alone in financial worries but is probably unique is that most of theirs is self inflicted. All businesses are struggling but I want to be alive with friends and family to enjoy it.
Cancelling this season does nothing to bring games back any sooner. It does nothing to stop clubs folding. It doesn't really work without fans in the grounds.
Cancelling a football season doesn't suddenly make it all better
@Right_in_the_Middle just out of curiosity, what's changed your mind? When we both discussed this a week or so ago, you were very keen to prioritise reopening the economy.
@aloysius said: @Right_in_the_Middle just out of curiosity, what's changed your mind? When we both discussed this a week or so ago, you were very keen to prioritise reopening the economy.
It's always going to come down to a tipping point of people dying from the virus and people dying from the effects of the lockdown. I do want things to reopen but I think the last two weeks have shown to me our Government are even more stupid than you could possibly think is possible. I was giving them the benefit of the doubt over decisions no one could know the consequences of. I allowed Johnson some leeway due to his illness.
I am now more scared than ever for my health and safety. The Government is on a dangerous path.
The Government are clearly culpable relying on the advice of the likes of randy Professor Ferguson! His predictions have proved wildly inaccurate over the last 20 years but Boris still appointed him.
Comments
So Oxford United are pushing this? Is that proven or just lockdown paranoia?
Then why won't it help our cause? It's not the social media posting opposition supporters who are voting unless I've missed something?
To be fair, 10 teams have a superior goal difference to us and 11 teams have scored more goals than us.
It's not proven, but it would hardly be a surprise.
Ah. So you've made an assumption and passed it of as fact. I really should be better at spotting those after the last few years of Government and media reportings. I follow now.
For me it's win win for Wycombe if the league doesn't sit and wait as I advise. If a new season starts after the results of maths deciding our fate we definately don't have to play Oxford.
This article does suggest that it is A League 1 club who has proposed this initially and on the reasonable assumption that the club most likely to benefit from it is the one to be pushing for it I don’t think it is unreasonable to conclude that it is Oxford. And if I was an Oxford fan I would be glad they were.
The more interesting thing is that it appears to be gaining support as it is generally (on the few articles I’ve seen so in no ways a properly researched generality) perceived as a ‘fairer’ method than simple PPG. And to be fair it probably is, although as others point out, once you bring in one variable where do you stop?
Sorry this was the link
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.leeds-live.co.uk/sport/leeds-united/leeds-united-championship-table-standings-18221292.amp
Also in reply to @Vincey
I do have a little confidence that the EFL will consult actual sports statisticians to get a professional opinion on "fairness", and I'm extremely confident that if they do, the "weighted ppg" system would be binned immediately.
I have to do a significant amount of statistical analysis in a non sporting context, and in my professional opinion it's ridiculous.
To check I wasn't being understandably biased (or ignorant) , I sent the idea to a non -chairboy friend who wrote his 1st class statistics masters thesis on statistical modelling and analysis of cricket and football results,and then went on to work in the industry. He said if they used that system it would be "crazy" from a mathematical POV
The appeal of the ‘weighted’ ppg isn’t that it’s fair, it’s that it keeps the top 3 (and bottom 3) as it stands.
But it doesn't represent "sporting merit" as well as an already established and simpler method.
It's a deliberately manufactured less valid more complex fudge to fit a certain result. That's not how you analyse data. You pick the method, and accept the results, not pick the result and find a method
I disagree that it’s a ‘fairer’ method. Our league, like the majority of major leagues throughout the world, operates on the basis of three points for a win, home or away. Why change that principle?
Hence why this situation would be one of the few I would fully back any legal action, as we would have been cynically shafted by a choice not made in the interest of health or the wider football community
Apologies, I might have misinterpreted the point you were making. All these mathematical equations are getting confusing.
Could have sworn a chap did the exact same on the fb group the other day
I think there's a fair few who have worked it out before too
Much harder to maintain anonymity if your point relies on personal experience!
Haha fair play. You're always one of the more reasoned chaps on there, so fair play.
Really hope this "weighted" PPG turns out to be another totally off idea the media have jumped on.
It just seems baffling to start stripping it down a level and then not apply what is the next obvious step of difficulty of opponent
Oxford fans would say we were in "Freefall", ignoring our decent last 8 record, being 3 points off 2nd, and having some lower teams to play late on.
The Peterborough chairman reaction is the most interesting one. Expect to see him swiftly back down when it all gets real though.
The media are feeding off scraps as well, they need to still try and sell papers/ ads/ subscriptions without any sport to report on. I've seen some things which have been downright lies printed about the process having heard from people who were involved in the meetings where things were supposedly decided - and then lo and behold, they never happened.
Just the worry the likes of Henry Winter are getting on it now.
I still think there's a big issue that it'd bump up from 8th to 3rd one way, while the other way keeps the top 3 nice and cosy.
We all know we're a game in hand from being 3rd ourselves, but casuals won't see it that way.
Fingers crossed they aren't that pathetic to value potential bad PR from the uninformed over their own " sporting merit " rule
I know a couple of Oxford mathematicians, a quote from a stats tutor from their own university would be gold right now....
Supposed to be a pic show what games, Home and Away, each League 1 team has left to play, don't know why it's not loading the image from my PC
Why should what casuals think make any difference? It's not even that anyone gets full value for that game under any points per game argument.
No supporter needs to justify why their team benefited when no supporter has any influence over what is decided.
I am getting more worried by the day. Both by the horrible decisions our Governnent are going to make and the media need for a rush to a decision for sport and football specifically.
You frequently ask what the rush is.
What would you actually be waiting for exactly? A vaccine?
Put it all on hold for a year?
The rush is for the survival of clubs. I expect there'll be a huge number of players released and not many bought in as soon as the season is cancelled
I am happy to wait a year if that is when it is finally safe. I hope it comes sooner but I am now genuinely worried by a rush to try to reopen.
I love theatre, live music, restaurants and sport. Football is not alone in financial worries but is probably unique is that most of theirs is self inflicted. All businesses are struggling but I want to be alive with friends and family to enjoy it.
Cancelling this season does nothing to bring games back any sooner. It does nothing to stop clubs folding. It doesn't really work without fans in the grounds.
Cancelling a football season doesn't suddenly make it all better
@Right_in_the_Middle just out of curiosity, what's changed your mind? When we both discussed this a week or so ago, you were very keen to prioritise reopening the economy.
It's always going to come down to a tipping point of people dying from the virus and people dying from the effects of the lockdown. I do want things to reopen but I think the last two weeks have shown to me our Government are even more stupid than you could possibly think is possible. I was giving them the benefit of the doubt over decisions no one could know the consequences of. I allowed Johnson some leeway due to his illness.
I am now more scared than ever for my health and safety. The Government is on a dangerous path.
The Government are clearly culpable relying on the advice of the likes of randy Professor Ferguson! His predictions have proved wildly inaccurate over the last 20 years but Boris still appointed him.