Indeed @StrongestTeam . I doubt there will be much national action until it becomes absolutely impossible to ignore. Hopefully we will be in the play-off places when they decide to suspend the league! I like the idea that retired NHS people (who are now probably in the danger group) would all come flooding back to help treat people though. As many of them left due to incompetent management and cuts which made their jobs difficult and dangerous, I doubt they'll all be coming back to help out said Trusts and risk their own health as a bonus!
@StrongestTeam said:
Of course your views on the government's approach to healthcare over the last decade or so will shade your opinion on how able we are likely to be at coping with this, the most senior politician spouting a load of rubbish and having to walk it back and apologize won't help regardless of its regularity and seeming popularity here and in the states.
I can't see all sport going unless or until all theatre, all shopping, schooling and other things do as well. Surprising really that most shops and public places still seem to be using touchscreens and don't have the hand sanitizer stuff out, maybe it's all been horded.
It's a pure lotto if we're honest. You could just as likely pick it up chatting to a neighbour, than being amongst 50,000 people all linking arms at some sweaty concert.
However, playing the percentages would surely suggest you try and minimise the chances, which are surely higher the more people that congregate in one setting.
@Lloyd2084 said:
Well that certainly backfired. My carefully chosen words have unleashed a wave of cognitive dissonance!
Just because you were born in the future, doesn't mean you have to go all wordy
It was a tribute to our esteemed contributor @HCblue for invoking the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Or was it Freddie Kruger? The mind plays tricks.
Never been esteemed before. Feels funny.
Like others, I’ve no complaint to make about our response to the situation so far. As I said before, it seems to be predicated on the wish to control rather than eliminate the spread of the disease so as to manage demand n medical resources. I dare say that, were the mortality rate massively higher, the model would be massively different, with economic considerations given much lower weight.
For those that are unsure, Messrs Dunning and Kruger produced a psychology paper setting out the correlation between a person’s competence or state of knowledge in one area and their likelihood of over- or under-estimating same. It found that the lower the competence or understanding, the greater the likelihood of falsely assuming expertise.
I’m struggling with the response tbh. There are 4 of us here very sick and awaiting a callback for tests, but it’s been a bureaucratic nightmare with differing advice at every turn and one part of the system overruling another. We had advice from 111 to Google the testing centre and to self present, but the links had all disappeared and there were no links or relevant sites apart from newspapers and foreign sites. I explained this on the phone, they insisted that this was the instruction from Public Health England yet none of the handlers could find the links anymore either. The remaining option was to wait for a call for testing and here we are nearly 48 hours on.
3 times we’ve been instructed to visit hospital or GP and despite protestations only one visit took protection, which they promptly removed after it was established we hadn’t been in the affected areas ourselves. It’s like they’re pretending community spread is slow and limited to the people they can remember interacting with.
I’ve never felt anything like this and I wouldn’t want anyone not in rude health to pick it up.
It would be farcical if it wasn’t so damn serious. I thought long and hard about posting this on a public forum but it is how it is and I thought it might help bring some sobriety to some of those making light of things and maybe help limit exposure to the more vulnerable.
I know of others, unrelated to our cases in the same boat.
We have a window to do something to slow the spread. That window is now.
@Lloyd2084 said:
I’m struggling with the response tbh. There are 4 of us here very sick and awaiting a callback for tests, but it’s been a bureaucratic nightmare with differing advice at every turn and one part of the system overruling another. We had advice from 111 to Google the testing centre and to self present, but the links had all disappeared and there were no links or relevant sites apart from newspapers and foreign sites. I explained this on the phone, they insisted that this was the instruction from Public Health England yet none of the handlers could find the links anymore either. The remaining option was to wait for a call for testing and here we are nearly 48 hours on.
3 times we’ve been instructed to visit hospital or GP and despite protestations only one visit took protection, which they promptly removed after it was established we hadn’t been in the affected areas ourselves. It’s like they’re pretending community spread is slow and limited to the people they can remember interacting with.
I’ve never felt anything like this and I wouldn’t want anyone not in rude health to pick it up.
It would be farcical if it wasn’t so damn serious. I thought long and hard about posting this on a public forum but it is how it is and I thought it might help bring some sobriety to some of those making light of things and maybe help limit exposure to the more vulnerable.
I know of others, unrelated to our cases in the same boat.
We have a window to do something to slow the spread. That window is now.
Regardless of what happens to games , a very distant importance to what you describe, I'm glad you posted this and didn't keep the info to yourself , and I would urge you to keep on at the powers that be and be prepared to message your mp and the press if you don't get a better response, none of us here are experts, I can only wish you well, whatever wider decisions are made we'll all have to abide by.
For all you Labour lovers out there.... the shadow health secretary was on the news this morning... and even he said “ the government are doing the right thing”
It’s still being peer reviewed but this stood out:
The study suggests it was crucial to move fast with the interventions China used to contain the outbreak. If testing, isolation and travel bans were brought in one, two or three weeks later than they were, the number of cases could have rocketed three, seven and 18-fold respectively.
@hcblue I don’t know anything about epidemiology, but when the editor of the Lancet tweets something so categorical it makes me pay attention. No idea what his evidence is, but I think it’s pretty likely it exists.
Also: “What is less clear from this analysis is what should happen next,” he said. In one scenario the scientists look at, lifting travel restrictions risks a second wave of infections unless contact rates are kept low. “Can that be done, and for how much longer? When can normal life resume?”
It seems there are many competing considerations. If I understood the NHS spokesman on Radio 4 this afternoon, the risk of going too early with more extreme restrictions, apart from the social and economic cost, is that, as suggested above, one merely delays the onset of a significant second wave of infections. Lots of difficult moving parts.
@Chris said: @hcblue I don’t know anything about epidemiology, but when the editor of the Lancet tweets something so categorical it makes me pay attention. No idea what his evidence is, but I think it’s pretty likely it exists.
If what I've read about him in the short time since reading your post holds weight, he doesn't seem to be shy of making an argument that is not necessarily firmly founded scientifically. I don't say he is mistaken in his view, even if I don't care for the way it is expressed (which exemplifies the downside of the short-form of Twitter) but I am not sure he is right simply because he holds the position he does, any more than I am sure those medics expressing more confidence in the government approach are right.
In 2008, Horton was appointed to a research and analytical management panel as a Senior Associate of The Nuffield Trust, a major independent health policy institution.[14] In 2016, he was appointed by United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to an expert group advising the High-Level Commission on Health Employment and Economic Growth, which was co-chaired by presidents François Hollande of France and Jacob Zuma of South Africa.[15] In 2017, he served on the World Health Organization/Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights High-Level Working Group on the Health and Human Rights of Women, Children and Adolescents, chaired by Tarja Halonen and Hina Jilani.[16]
The people of this country have had enough of experts.
In 2008, Horton was appointed to a research and analytical management panel as a Senior Associate of The Nuffield Trust, a major independent health policy institution.[14] In 2016, he was appointed by United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to an expert group advising the High-Level Commission on Health Employment and Economic Growth, which was co-chaired by presidents François Hollande of France and Jacob Zuma of South Africa.[15] In 2017, he served on the World Health Organization/Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights High-Level Working Group on the Health and Human Rights of Women, Children and Adolescents, chaired by Tarja Halonen and Hina Jilani.[16]
The people of this country have had enough of experts.
I didn't say he was a charlatan! But he's also not the only "expert" in the country nor, as far as I can see, known to be an expert in epedemiology.
Life is about balancing risk and reward. Every time we get in our cars, we risk our lives. We still do it though. For a handful every day that risk proves a risk too far.
Go to a football match this weekend and there is a tiny tiny chance you will be next to a person carrying the virus. Not noticeably a bigger chance though than the guy you sat next to on the train going to work or the guy you met with at work or the guy who used your supermarket trolley before you on the way home.
Its possible that in a few weeks time we might need to limit all those activities when the risk hits its peak. We might agree to do that for a bit but we can only afford/stand to do so for so long.
Life is about balancing risk and reward. Every time we get in our cars, we risk our lives. We still do it though. For a handful every day that risk proves a risk too far.
Go to a football match this weekend and there is a tiny tiny chance you will be next to a person carrying the virus. Not noticeably a bigger chance though than the guy you sat next to on the train going to work or the guy you met with at work or the guy who used your supermarket trolley before you on the way home.
Its possible that in a few weeks time we might need to limit all those activities when the risk hits its peak. We might agree to do that for a bit but we can only afford/stand to do so for so long.
For now seems best to me to carry on as normal.
Well neither you nor I is best-placed to make that judgement but one trusts that the people advising the government are so and have done so correctly.
That is entirely expected tbh, given what is currently going on in Italy where measures like this weren't taken soon enough. I personally wouldn't be surprised if all professional football is suspended, given that in some matches behind closed doors in Europe, large crowds of fans have gathered outside the ground, which is rather counter productive for efforts to stop a pandemic.
@HolmerBlue said:
For all you Labour lovers out there.... the shadow health secretary was on the news this morning... and even he said “ the government are doing the right thing”
For most of us this isn't a partisan issue. Try harder.
Comments
Indeed @StrongestTeam . I doubt there will be much national action until it becomes absolutely impossible to ignore. Hopefully we will be in the play-off places when they decide to suspend the league!
I like the idea that retired NHS people (who are now probably in the danger group) would all come flooding back to help treat people though. As many of them left due to incompetent management and cuts which made their jobs difficult and dangerous, I doubt they'll all be coming back to help out said Trusts and risk their own health as a bonus!
It's a pure lotto if we're honest. You could just as likely pick it up chatting to a neighbour, than being amongst 50,000 people all linking arms at some sweaty concert.
However, playing the percentages would surely suggest you try and minimise the chances, which are surely higher the more people that congregate in one setting.
Never been esteemed before. Feels funny.
Like others, I’ve no complaint to make about our response to the situation so far. As I said before, it seems to be predicated on the wish to control rather than eliminate the spread of the disease so as to manage demand n medical resources. I dare say that, were the mortality rate massively higher, the model would be massively different, with economic considerations given much lower weight.
For those that are unsure, Messrs Dunning and Kruger produced a psychology paper setting out the correlation between a person’s competence or state of knowledge in one area and their likelihood of over- or under-estimating same. It found that the lower the competence or understanding, the greater the likelihood of falsely assuming expertise.
cf. any football crowd.
I’m struggling with the response tbh. There are 4 of us here very sick and awaiting a callback for tests, but it’s been a bureaucratic nightmare with differing advice at every turn and one part of the system overruling another. We had advice from 111 to Google the testing centre and to self present, but the links had all disappeared and there were no links or relevant sites apart from newspapers and foreign sites. I explained this on the phone, they insisted that this was the instruction from Public Health England yet none of the handlers could find the links anymore either. The remaining option was to wait for a call for testing and here we are nearly 48 hours on.
3 times we’ve been instructed to visit hospital or GP and despite protestations only one visit took protection, which they promptly removed after it was established we hadn’t been in the affected areas ourselves. It’s like they’re pretending community spread is slow and limited to the people they can remember interacting with.
I’ve never felt anything like this and I wouldn’t want anyone not in rude health to pick it up.
It would be farcical if it wasn’t so damn serious. I thought long and hard about posting this on a public forum but it is how it is and I thought it might help bring some sobriety to some of those making light of things and maybe help limit exposure to the more vulnerable.
I know of others, unrelated to our cases in the same boat.
We have a window to do something to slow the spread. That window is now.
Regardless of what happens to games , a very distant importance to what you describe, I'm glad you posted this and didn't keep the info to yourself , and I would urge you to keep on at the powers that be and be prepared to message your mp and the press if you don't get a better response, none of us here are experts, I can only wish you well, whatever wider decisions are made we'll all have to abide by.
For all you Labour lovers out there.... the shadow health secretary was on the news this morning... and even he said “ the government are doing the right thing”
I’m getting really fucking concerned now. We’re down to our last 2 rolls of bog paper in a household of 4 adults. I can’t find any stock anywhere.
Who are the cunts buying it all?
Need a bit more than a tweet to be persuaded of this argument, especially given its emotive expression.
Try this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/research-finds-huge-impact-of-interventions-on-spread-of-covid-19?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
It’s still being peer reviewed but this stood out:
The study suggests it was crucial to move fast with the interventions China used to contain the outbreak. If testing, isolation and travel bans were brought in one, two or three weeks later than they were, the number of cases could have rocketed three, seven and 18-fold respectively.
@hcblue I don’t know anything about epidemiology, but when the editor of the Lancet tweets something so categorical it makes me pay attention. No idea what his evidence is, but I think it’s pretty likely it exists.
Also: “What is less clear from this analysis is what should happen next,” he said. In one scenario the scientists look at, lifting travel restrictions risks a second wave of infections unless contact rates are kept low. “Can that be done, and for how much longer? When can normal life resume?”
It seems there are many competing considerations. If I understood the NHS spokesman on Radio 4 this afternoon, the risk of going too early with more extreme restrictions, apart from the social and economic cost, is that, as suggested above, one merely delays the onset of a significant second wave of infections. Lots of difficult moving parts.
If what I've read about him in the short time since reading your post holds weight, he doesn't seem to be shy of making an argument that is not necessarily firmly founded scientifically. I don't say he is mistaken in his view, even if I don't care for the way it is expressed (which exemplifies the downside of the short-form of Twitter) but I am not sure he is right simply because he holds the position he does, any more than I am sure those medics expressing more confidence in the government approach are right.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Horton_(editor)
From wiki:
In 2008, Horton was appointed to a research and analytical management panel as a Senior Associate of The Nuffield Trust, a major independent health policy institution.[14] In 2016, he was appointed by United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to an expert group advising the High-Level Commission on Health Employment and Economic Growth, which was co-chaired by presidents François Hollande of France and Jacob Zuma of South Africa.[15] In 2017, he served on the World Health Organization/Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights High-Level Working Group on the Health and Human Rights of Women, Children and Adolescents, chaired by Tarja Halonen and Hina Jilani.[16]
The people of this country have had enough of experts.
I couldn’t possibly say what is right or wrong, but it is important to know that expert opinion is divided.
I didn't say he was a charlatan! But he's also not the only "expert" in the country nor, as far as I can see, known to be an expert in epedemiology.
Yup. I guess that's probably because there are competing interests to be considered. It's not just the medical side that is being factored in, is it?
Quite correctly - public policy isn’t a medical decision.
I'd like to think it's a considerable part of it here!
It’s partly medical partly political.
Life is about balancing risk and reward. Every time we get in our cars, we risk our lives. We still do it though. For a handful every day that risk proves a risk too far.
Go to a football match this weekend and there is a tiny tiny chance you will be next to a person carrying the virus. Not noticeably a bigger chance though than the guy you sat next to on the train going to work or the guy you met with at work or the guy who used your supermarket trolley before you on the way home.
Its possible that in a few weeks time we might need to limit all those activities when the risk hits its peak. We might agree to do that for a bit but we can only afford/stand to do so for so long.
For now seems best to me to carry on as normal.
Well neither you nor I is best-placed to make that judgement but one trusts that the people advising the government are so and have done so correctly.
Indeed.
Sounds like it's rapidly escalating!
See what comes out from this cobra meeting today!
That is entirely expected tbh, given what is currently going on in Italy where measures like this weren't taken soon enough. I personally wouldn't be surprised if all professional football is suspended, given that in some matches behind closed doors in Europe, large crowds of fans have gathered outside the ground, which is rather counter productive for efforts to stop a pandemic.
If they temporarily scrap the 3pm blackout and put games on ifollow etc they would have to ban it being shown in pubs etc.
And ban people from hanging about grounds
You'd bound to get people loitering on the hill opposite our ground for example.
For most of us this isn't a partisan issue. Try harder.