There is definitely a path for Harris to win, but at the moment Trump remains the slight favourite. The result is not, of course, decided on the popular vote but on winning in the Electoral College. This skews elections by giving a structural advantage to small states. Each state receives a number of electoral votes equal to the number of House of Representatives members from that state, plus two. These two additional votes effectively triple the voting power of the smallest states, while having only a minor effect on the voting power of large states. Most of those small states are traditionally conservative and vote Republican - they are in the bank for Trump even before a vote is cast.
Democrats tend to win big in urban/suburban states - New York and California for instance - which looks good in the popular vote stakes, but doesn't reset the electoral skew the Electoral College delivers. For Harris to win in November, she needs to win all the traditionally blue states - several of which Biden won only very narrowly in 2020 and take almost all of the 'purple' in-play states of the upper Midwest, South East and Sunbelt. All of these races are stuck in margin-of-error polling territory - and this favours Trump.
US elections are often a matter of confidence - one candidate or ticket will do something that resonates so much it will either deliver or destroy their campaign (cf Palin in the VP debate in 2008, or Truman in the whistlestop tour of 1948). Trump 3.0 is a truly terrible candidate, but Harris has done nothing yet to deliver the consistent 5+ point margin over Trump that can be picked up in messaging, amplified by the media and supported by the PAC money needed to destroy confidence in the other candidate.
She'll need a big 'October surprise', and it doesn't look as if the courts will help her. An uptick in the economy and perhaps something decisive on Gaza or Ukraine could deliver for her - neither seem likely as I write.
That’s certainly one interpretation of the Electoral College, but not a very accurate one. Without the electoral college presidential candidates would only have to campaign in Chicago, New York City and LA. The electoral college forces candidates to appeal to American voters wherever they live. If Democrats are annoyed it counts against them in rural areas, I suggest they come up with some policies that appeal to voters in rural areas.
I don’t think Harris wins the rust belt states she needs. I think Trump will carry North Carolina, and Nevada and Arizona are probably toss ups. But this is not the failure of the system, but of the candidate.
That’s certainly one interpretation of the Electoral College, but not a very accurate one. Without the electoral college presidential candidates would only have to campaign in Chicago, New York City and LA. The electoral college forces candidates to appeal to American voters wherever they live. If Democrats are annoyed it counts against them in rural areas, I suggest they come up with some policies that appeal to voters in rural areas.
I don’t think Harris wins the rust belt states she needs. I think Trump will carry North Carolina, and Nevada and Arizona are probably toss ups. But this is not the failure of the system, but of the candidate.
Those three cities represent 15m out of approx 162 million voters in the US. Just focusing there in a fptp system would win nothing. This is not down to policy but culture and structural advantage. An incredibly poor candidate such as Trump 3.0 can win despite having no new policies, an at best 'questionable' track record as president and 34 (and counting) felony convictions.
My view of the Electoral College system is based on researching in US presidential politics since 2008 and teaching this stuff since 2010 with fieldwork in Kansas, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia and DC, in 2008, 2011, 2016 and 2021. You might also like my books on Trump and Eisenhower (Trump 3.0 coming in 2026), but hey, what do I know?
Electoral college aside, for my part, I can sort of understand why people voted for the small-minded, uneducated, cowardly, babbling, failed deal-maker, lying, racist loon ('It's just campaigning...he won't be like that once he's president') the first time...but now they know he WILL be like that once he is in office and even right-wing hawks who worked for him and tried to make him focus/learn/ understand and got the sack for it think he's dangerous...I despair of people voting for a man who has whinged and whined for three years and has only personal revenge on the agenda.
Furthermore, the population of those three cities is closer to 50m than 15m! There are over 18 million people in metro LA alone.
Entire New York State , California and Illinois votes in 2020 represented 20% of total votes in US, Floyd. Obviously the three cities significantly less.
Electoral college aside, for my part, I can sort of understand why people voted for the small-minded, uneducated, cowardly, babbling, failed deal-maker, lying, racist loon ('It's just campaigning...he won't be like that once he's president') the first time...but now they know he WILL be like that once he is in office and even right-wing hawks who worked for him and tried to make him focus/learn/ understand and got the sack for it think he's dangerous...I despair of people voting for a man who has whinged and whined for three years and has only personal revenge on the agenda.
When John Bolton thinks someone is unhinged...
But he's promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of his inauguration as President. Your surely not suggesting he's lying!
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Cash out @bargepole!!!
And pay me when Wasps rear their ugly head up again near the top in the next year or two!
Trump will win or if not ‘win’. He will be the President in January 2025 no question.
That’s certainly one interpretation of the Electoral College, but not a very accurate one. Without the electoral college presidential candidates would only have to campaign in Chicago, New York City and LA. The electoral college forces candidates to appeal to American voters wherever they live. If Democrats are annoyed it counts against them in rural areas, I suggest they come up with some policies that appeal to voters in rural areas.
I don’t think Harris wins the rust belt states she needs. I think Trump will carry North Carolina, and Nevada and Arizona are probably toss ups. But this is not the failure of the system, but of the candidate.
It does seem odd though that in effectively a two horse race the candidate with the most votes might still lose. Tis what it is though.
Floyd, that's, frankly, b*llocks.
Those three cities represent 15m out of approx 162 million voters in the US. Just focusing there in a fptp system would win nothing. This is not down to policy but culture and structural advantage. An incredibly poor candidate such as Trump 3.0 can win despite having no new policies, an at best 'questionable' track record as president and 34 (and counting) felony convictions.
My view of the Electoral College system is based on researching in US presidential politics since 2008 and teaching this stuff since 2010 with fieldwork in Kansas, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia and DC, in 2008, 2011, 2016 and 2021. You might also like my books on Trump and Eisenhower (Trump 3.0 coming in 2026), but hey, what do I know?
I would suggest you have a right-leaning outlook (I'm an Eisenhower Republican!), so you might enjoy this Brookings perspective on the Electoral College and why its time has passed https://www.brookings.edu/articles/its-time-to-abolish-the-electoral-college/
I understand why the electoral college is so important because I’ve lived most of my adult life in rural America.
Furthermore, the population of those three cities is closer to 50m than 15m! There are over 18 million people in metro LA alone.
An apology.
I said on this thread that everyone would hate Starmer after six months. I was wrong. I should have said six weeks.
Electoral college aside, for my part, I can sort of understand why people voted for the small-minded, uneducated, cowardly, babbling, failed deal-maker, lying, racist loon ('It's just campaigning...he won't be like that once he's president') the first time...but now they know he WILL be like that once he is in office and even right-wing hawks who worked for him and tried to make him focus/learn/ understand and got the sack for it think he's dangerous...I despair of people voting for a man who has whinged and whined for three years and has only personal revenge on the agenda.
When John Bolton thinks someone is unhinged...
Entire New York State , California and Illinois votes in 2020 represented 20% of total votes in US, Floyd. Obviously the three cities significantly less.
More like one in three, just under 50m of just over 160m.
No you are confusing people (including kids) some of whom don’t vote with voters.
around 31m votes in those three states out of 155m total votes.
obviously the three cities don’t make up the whole states
The "sorry, but I actually wrote the book on that" comeback is the greatest comeback in the history of forums. You get a lot of them on Hacker News.
But he's promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of his inauguration as President. Your surely not suggesting he's lying!
Got to say the moniker free gear Kier is quite funny
That (tangentially) gives me an idea for the nickname of our new man on the left, ‘Keir’ Harvie.
Starmer has called for the 'return of the sausages in Gaza'
Not pork sausages, I'd guess.
works slightly better than 'Diane'.