Physician associates are cheaper than GPs aren’t they? Why else would they be used?
And I don’t think in general (on the doctor side) there is a distinct line between public and private healthcare professionals, they tend to be the same doctors doing both public and private work.
Interestingly, most places they were outnumbered about 10:1 by locals/counter protestors or, as here in Dover, failed to show up at all.
This after Tice & Fanage dog whistled across the media, claiming to speak for the majority yada-yada-yada - of course that is just pure hyperbole on their part as clearly shown by communities in Liverpool, Sunderland, Harlepool, Nottingham etc today.
We're still very early in what's set to be a vicious and ugly race - the pace will step up with the DNC in Chicago in 10 days' time, but won't really hit full speed until after Labor Day - September 2. You'll then have a two-month sprint to the election with at least one more Head-to-Head candidate Debate, a VP debate and wall to wall candidate events. Traditionally there's been an 'October Surprise' - think Comey - that will knock one or other candidate, and with Trump involved, there will be absolutely no holds barred in dragging this contest to the depths - and then probably deeper.
Harris has built strong momentum so far, and her pick of Walz as a running mate has added some real-world normality against the 'weird' ticket of Trump/Vance. But she's yet to be tested in debate or by the media - so don't get too complacent yet. I suspect she'll hold her own with Trump. What she may be more worried about is economic and foreign policy headwinds. US elections are won and lost on the economy: this week's stock market blip will have flashed warning signs to the Dem camp, and it's fertile ground for the party not in power to drop all kinds of accusations on the incumbents. Also, Israel/Gaza remains a thorn and one where Harris-the-candidate needs to put some distance between her position and that of Biden, while Harris-the-VP needs to be wholly supportive of the Biden Administration.
When Biden dropped out, Republicans will have hoped the Democrat campaign would descend into 1968-like chaos. Instead, there's more than the whiff of a 2008 vibe.
Still many twists and turns though before we reach November 5.
You may be right. it’s perfect timing for Trump to blame four years of democratic mismanagement without needing to offer a coherent policy of his own and claim a “radical left” ticket will hand America over to “woke” fanatics and immigrants who will empty American purses even further.
Get Walz out with Harris. He speaks well, seems charming and sad though it is, may appeal to voters Harris may struggle to reach.
The recent failed assassination attempt on a golf course, which of course Trump blames on the Democrats, seems to have had no impact on the polling, with Harris now in the lead in all 7 of the 'swing states'.
Meanwhile, the allegations of immigrants from Haiti eating people's pets are reaching farcical proportions.
Swings between fascinating and absolute Circus show.
Would expect Harris will go full Starmer now and not promise or announce anything. Her entire argument can purely be "I'm not clearly a deranged criminal psychopath" and I think (hope?) we might be at the point now when even gun toting fox news watchers start to think there might be something in that.
Who knows though, plenty of people would have known that last time they elected him.
Still feels at best 52-48 race at the moment. I am sure most rational people here want Harris to win but not at all certain she will. If a close outcome I fear could get very unpleasant. How on earth as the US come to this - when I was a kid we used to look up to them.
There is definitely a path for Harris to win, but at the moment Trump remains the slight favourite. The result is not, of course, decided on the popular vote but on winning in the Electoral College. This skews elections by giving a structural advantage to small states. Each state receives a number of electoral votes equal to the number of House of Representatives members from that state, plus two. These two additional votes effectively triple the voting power of the smallest states, while having only a minor effect on the voting power of large states. Most of those small states are traditionally conservative and vote Republican - they are in the bank for Trump even before a vote is cast.
Democrats tend to win big in urban/suburban states - New York and California for instance - which looks good in the popular vote stakes, but doesn't reset the electoral skew the Electoral College delivers. For Harris to win in November, she needs to win all the traditionally blue states - several of which Biden won only very narrowly in 2020 and take almost all of the 'purple' in-play states of the upper Midwest, South East and Sunbelt. All of these races are stuck in margin-of-error polling territory - and this favours Trump.
US elections are often a matter of confidence - one candidate or ticket will do something that resonates so much it will either deliver or destroy their campaign (cf Palin in the VP debate in 2008, or Truman in the whistlestop tour of 1948). Trump 3.0 is a truly terrible candidate, but Harris has done nothing yet to deliver the consistent 5+ point margin over Trump that can be picked up in messaging, amplified by the media and supported by the PAC money needed to destroy confidence in the other candidate.
She'll need a big 'October surprise', and it doesn't look as if the courts will help her. An uptick in the economy and perhaps something decisive on Gaza or Ukraine could deliver for her - neither seem likely as I write.
I would agree with you in terms of outsiders thinking this is a me horse race. I have respectable friends in different states in the US and they think differently. Their lot is not a happy one (despite what Joe mumbles). So a vote for Harris is more of the same. A vote for Trump (even when holding your nose) is a vote for something different. I don’t know what I want but I don’t want THIS. Which might make the vote closer than we think.
Comments
Physician associates are cheaper than GPs aren’t they? Why else would they be used?
And I don’t think in general (on the doctor side) there is a distinct line between public and private healthcare professionals, they tend to be the same doctors doing both public and private work.
Why else would they be used?
They also help meeting diversity targets.
Great post. I've been trying to say something similar on here for a while.
Ainsworth for England
No enthusiasm for the King's Speech?
Overrated film, though the Aussie bloke was quite good.
Nick freeman
This takes me back to my late teens. Twenty odd years later I looked a lot like Sellers and could do most of the voices.
https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=GGBBmLj15JQ&si=fiuCSB9cMDkE_oFU
The speech (content and message at least) hasn’t changed much in the meantime.
Talking of Peter Sellers and politics, Being There is a great film and feels more and more prescient with each American election.
Fash march/ drinking session organised in High Wycombe tomorrow, worrying times
Good news for local coke dealers at least.
I just about remember the NF getting run out of town in the late70s/early 80s.
Being There is one of my all time favourite films. I just set it up for the kids to watch in the car on a long journey next week.
I remember seeing it as a child and it having a profound effect on me, but I haven’t seen it since.
I’ll try and track it down this weekend I think.
I'm All Right Jack might give them a more realistic Sellers-infused idea of how the world works.
Though Dr. Strangelove might be more appropriate the way things are going.
By the look of it Yaxley Lennon's stormtroopers numbered about 6 in town today.
Interestingly, most places they were outnumbered about 10:1 by locals/counter protestors or, as here in Dover, failed to show up at all.
This after Tice & Fanage dog whistled across the media, claiming to speak for the majority yada-yada-yada - of course that is just pure hyperbole on their part as clearly shown by communities in Liverpool, Sunderland, Harlepool, Nottingham etc today.
Some time ago, before Joe Biden dropped out, I had a bet on Kamala Harris to be the next US President at 10/1, while Trump was very short odds-on.
Following the latest polls, Harris is now odds-on favourite at 10/11, while the orange man-baby has drifted to 21/20.
I can cash out now for a decent profit, but will let it ride while he continues to self-destruct.
We're still very early in what's set to be a vicious and ugly race - the pace will step up with the DNC in Chicago in 10 days' time, but won't really hit full speed until after Labor Day - September 2. You'll then have a two-month sprint to the election with at least one more Head-to-Head candidate Debate, a VP debate and wall to wall candidate events. Traditionally there's been an 'October Surprise' - think Comey - that will knock one or other candidate, and with Trump involved, there will be absolutely no holds barred in dragging this contest to the depths - and then probably deeper.
Harris has built strong momentum so far, and her pick of Walz as a running mate has added some real-world normality against the 'weird' ticket of Trump/Vance. But she's yet to be tested in debate or by the media - so don't get too complacent yet. I suspect she'll hold her own with Trump. What she may be more worried about is economic and foreign policy headwinds. US elections are won and lost on the economy: this week's stock market blip will have flashed warning signs to the Dem camp, and it's fertile ground for the party not in power to drop all kinds of accusations on the incumbents. Also, Israel/Gaza remains a thorn and one where Harris-the-candidate needs to put some distance between her position and that of Biden, while Harris-the-VP needs to be wholly supportive of the Biden Administration.
When Biden dropped out, Republicans will have hoped the Democrat campaign would descend into 1968-like chaos. Instead, there's more than the whiff of a 2008 vibe.
Still many twists and turns though before we reach November 5.
I’d be tempted to cash out. Looking at the direction of travel of the US economy I have the (horrible) feeling Trump will win reasonably comfortably .
You may be right. it’s perfect timing for Trump to blame four years of democratic mismanagement without needing to offer a coherent policy of his own and claim a “radical left” ticket will hand America over to “woke” fanatics and immigrants who will empty American purses even further.
Get Walz out with Harris. He speaks well, seems charming and sad though it is, may appeal to voters Harris may struggle to reach.
Bumping up this thread, and I still haven't cashed out my bet. According to 538, Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight, Harris is rated at 61% likely to win, with Trump at 39%.
The recent failed assassination attempt on a golf course, which of course Trump blames on the Democrats, seems to have had no impact on the polling, with Harris now in the lead in all 7 of the 'swing states'.
Meanwhile, the allegations of immigrants from Haiti eating people's pets are reaching farcical proportions.
It is deeply depressing that the distinctly unimpressive Harris is the best choice. Trump 2020 was a mature statesman compared to this incarnation.
I do love visiting the US, but with a population of 350 million are these two really the best they can come up with?
Swings between fascinating and absolute Circus show.
Would expect Harris will go full Starmer now and not promise or announce anything. Her entire argument can purely be "I'm not clearly a deranged criminal psychopath" and I think (hope?) we might be at the point now when even gun toting fox news watchers start to think there might be something in that.
Who knows though, plenty of people would have known that last time they elected him.
Still feels at best 52-48 race at the moment. I am sure most rational people here want Harris to win but not at all certain she will. If a close outcome I fear could get very unpleasant. How on earth as the US come to this - when I was a kid we used to look up to them.
Dropping in (against my better judgement) to say that at the moment, I don’t see a path for Harris to win.
There is definitely a path for Harris to win, but at the moment Trump remains the slight favourite. The result is not, of course, decided on the popular vote but on winning in the Electoral College. This skews elections by giving a structural advantage to small states. Each state receives a number of electoral votes equal to the number of House of Representatives members from that state, plus two. These two additional votes effectively triple the voting power of the smallest states, while having only a minor effect on the voting power of large states. Most of those small states are traditionally conservative and vote Republican - they are in the bank for Trump even before a vote is cast.
Democrats tend to win big in urban/suburban states - New York and California for instance - which looks good in the popular vote stakes, but doesn't reset the electoral skew the Electoral College delivers. For Harris to win in November, she needs to win all the traditionally blue states - several of which Biden won only very narrowly in 2020 and take almost all of the 'purple' in-play states of the upper Midwest, South East and Sunbelt. All of these races are stuck in margin-of-error polling territory - and this favours Trump.
US elections are often a matter of confidence - one candidate or ticket will do something that resonates so much it will either deliver or destroy their campaign (cf Palin in the VP debate in 2008, or Truman in the whistlestop tour of 1948). Trump 3.0 is a truly terrible candidate, but Harris has done nothing yet to deliver the consistent 5+ point margin over Trump that can be picked up in messaging, amplified by the media and supported by the PAC money needed to destroy confidence in the other candidate.
She'll need a big 'October surprise', and it doesn't look as if the courts will help her. An uptick in the economy and perhaps something decisive on Gaza or Ukraine could deliver for her - neither seem likely as I write.
I would agree with you in terms of outsiders thinking this is a me horse race. I have respectable friends in different states in the US and they think differently. Their lot is not a happy one (despite what Joe mumbles). So a vote for Harris is more of the same. A vote for Trump (even when holding your nose) is a vote for something different. I don’t know what I want but I don’t want THIS. Which might make the vote closer than we think.
Terrible state.
Well, we've got more than sixty million here and I can't say that our options have been much to shout about either!
Anyone notice any "change" yet?!