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Match day thread: Plymouth

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  • There is so much nonsense stats nowadays, expected goals being the worst culprit. It’s just an excuses ridden game nowadays, ‘oh we lost 3-0 but the expected goals result was 1.96 to 1.67 so it was a moral victory’. The only stat that matters is the final result.

    Maybe I’m too old school but goals should be hard to score. If you’re losing possession in your own third because you’re trying to play 10 precision passes before you reach the halfway line then more fool you.

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  • I love how much xG winds people up. It's really not an attack on your enjoyment of football.

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  • And goals are hard to score - that scarcity is what makes football so great.

  • @glasshalffull said:
    There is now an obsession with possession stats, encouraged by Opta and their counterparts. They give an unbalanced picture of the game, for instance Plymouth had 67% of possession and lost 3-0. It’s possession in your opponent’s half that is more important plus, of course, what you actually do with it.

    It's "what you actually do with it" applies to the stats as well of course, they can be very helpful when studied and set out properly like @ReturnToSenda often does in his various guises. Gaz and Dobbo obviously agree or we wouldn't wear those trackers. In fact Dobbo alluded to much of our supposed gamesmanship and style of play being down to carefully considering when to rest and recover and when to go full pelt.
    I agree though that some analysis is rushed and wrong and sensationalised for memes and Twitter but if you're keen on learning more then the data is our there and that's not a bad thing, and harms nobody.

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  • edited November 2021

    @StrongestTeam said:

    @glasshalffull said:
    There is now an obsession with possession stats, encouraged by Opta and their counterparts. They give an unbalanced picture of the game, for instance Plymouth had 67% of possession and lost 3-0. It’s possession in your opponent’s half that is more important plus, of course, what you actually do with it.

    It's "what you actually do with it" applies to the stats as well of course, they can be very helpful when studied and set out properly like @ReturnToSenda often does in his various guises. Gaz and Dobbo obviously agree or we wouldn't wear those trackers. In fact Dobbo alluded to much of our supposed gamesmanship and style of play being down to carefully considering when to rest and recover and when to go full pelt.
    I agree though that some analysis is rushed and wrong and sensationalised for memes and Twitter but if you're keen on learning more then the data is our there and that's not a bad thing, and harms nobody.

    Exactly! Context is key - and unfortunately there's far too much context-less use of data in football. A decent example of an often misused metric being used well from the City game last night:

  • edited November 2021

    I know I know nothing about the game, but I've seen us play some very good stuff this season...often very counter to what opposition fans (and some Gasroomers) claim to have witnessed...and surely the fact we're hanging about at the top despite the recent 'disastrous' run having only lost four games means we must be doing something right beyond conning every single referee and the goalie kicking it long.

  • @Right_in_the_Middle said:
    This short goal kick nonsense is just a massive time wasting ruse.

    Football stats have become an obsession and its a sport that doesn't lend itself to as many stats as it gets given. On Tuesday night Dan Scarr must have had 10 percent possession by himself without ever doing anything to create a goal.

    Actually thought Scarr's distribution from the back was pretty good. Was a bit concerned of the space we were giving him - a few times allowing him to take the ball well into our half unchallenged. Not really down to the centre back to be creating a goal.

  • @StrongestTeam said:

    It's "what you actually do with it" applies to the stats as well of course, they can be very helpful when studied and set out properly like @ReturnToSenda often does in his various guises. Gaz and Dobbo obviously agree or we wouldn't wear those trackers. In fact Dobbo alluded to much of our supposed gamesmanship and style of play being down to carefully considering when to rest and recover and when to go full pelt.
    I agree though that some analysis is rushed and wrong and sensationalised for memes and Twitter but if you're keen on learning more then the data is our there and that's not a bad thing, and harms nobody.

    What I said was that there’s an obsession with possession stats, as if that’s the only criteria for success. Of course other stats can be useful and I use them in my own job.

  • Leicester won the premier league with less than 50% possession didn't they?

  • I believe they did and the whole country loved them for it. How many goals did they score from long balls to Vardy?

  • @Right_in_the_Middle said:
    This short goal kick nonsense is just a massive time wasting ruse.

    Let them all crack on with it if you ask me. While managers and coaches are spending time with there defenders teaching how to pass it short from their 6 yard box, they aren’t teaching them how to defend direct balls or follow up on the 2nd balls.

  • The possession stat is the least interesting one in the set, of little value. It usually shows one team passing back and forth in their own half, more than the other team.

  • Strictly speaking, it's not even possession

    I'd always assumed they timed how long each team was in possession and worked it out that way, but it's actually done on the total number of passes

    eg 1,000 total passes in a game - you make 300 of them you are deemed to have had 30% possession

    As you say, playing loads if one-twos between centre halves in quick succession would boost this figure but to no great benefit to the side involved

  • xZZZZZs. The predicted number of seconds before stifling a yawn when someone starts banging on about xG.

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  • @arnos_grove said:
    xZZZZZs. The predicted number of seconds before stifling a yawn when someone starts banging on about xG.

    Wait until you hear about expected assists

  • I'd be interested in xP.

    Expected Partridges.

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  • Looking at the current Premier League stats, Arsenal a so called proponent of the "beautiful game" only have 46% possession for the season.

  • @arnos_grove said:
    I'd be interested in xP.

    Expected Partridges.

    Alan?

  • Hello hello

    As promised, a considered view....sorry it is almost as late and JJ's tackle on Camara but first and foremost, having watched ( often through my fingers towards the end) on iFollow, no doubt that the better team on the night won.

    Tactically you set us problems that no other team has done so far.....basically neutering the wing backs and allowing Scarr to play the Pirlo role....something that wasn't ( and to be fair still isn't) on his footballing CV.

    Indeed the BBC I believe at one point were going to give him his own possession stat.

    Lowe had obviously produced his own gameplay but the use of Mayor over Broom made us in my view too predictable. Mayor has not really got that twenty yard screamer in his locker. He creates uncertainty in defences but when you effectively let the opposition get to the last third and then invite them to find a way though it probably explains the plethora of shots and the paucity of saves Stockdale was asked to make....basically none.

    At the other end until Vokes scored it looked like a stalemate, but it was a very good turn and strike. Some are arguing that Cooper should/could have saved it, but he didn't and if you don't buy a ticket you don't win the raffle/

    Using Vokes to pull onto the wing backs for headers is a very useful tactic and effectively won the third goal....he is always going to beat Connor Grant in the air. I thought Hanlon was a handful, and I really liked Mehmeti ( well not liked, as he scored twice but certainly envied).

    So I think it was closer than the scoreline suggests...Hardie in the first half and Grant in the second could easily have given us the lead or the equaliser ) in fact I think Stockdale got the faintest of gloves on Hardies effort although I think it was going wide whatever).

    So good win. Deserved win.

    As soon as we were one down I detected the ( and I expect you to just decry me as a bitter Argyle fan but hear me out) introduction of the slowing of the game....just the one pretend head injury where the stricken full backs teammates were so concerned they all went for a drink on the halfway line keeper included, but to be honest I think now it is so engrained in the psyche at Home Park that its a good tactic...the crowd were more fixated on the on field shenanigans they perceived than in getting behind the team. It has become a bit of a pantomime and I think it only helps one team...

    It isn't anything we don't see from other teams, albeit less this season because it is normally us seeing the game out rather than chasing it. I can recall in the Sturrock days the substituted player would always be the one furthest away from the dugout no matter what position they played....

    I don't enjoy seeing players claiming head injuries when they know there wasn't one and if there was a head injury protocol like Rugby where the player has to go and be assessed off the field and a concussion sub brought on I think they would reduce dramatically.

    Rotational fouls on Mayor and then provoking him when he got his own soft booking. Won't be the first or the last to do it. He was our best player on the night, but we look more laboured when everything goes through him.

    Hardie was also less effective with no space to run into and Jephcott is a six yard box striker, not a number ten. Garrick would have been a better option and his form was good so deserved longer than he got.

    I too noted the response to Galloways injury ( dislocated kneecap so bad but not what it could have been) and as I wasn't at the Lynch game so I do understand the feeling that engendered. All I can say is that from my understanding the initial booing was a reaction to other players milking injuries to waste time, including one effectively dragging himself onto the pitch to stop the game after going off the pitch and then goading the fans....but it is not something I have ever seen Argyle fans do in any other case of injury. That doesn't excuse it but there was context which I think is sometimes overlooked.

    So there you have it. You played well, we didn't and I think we will play worse and win elsewhere.

    And I did get the text from JJ's dad.....and that was very late as well :)

    Enjoy your season, and keep those phones charged just in case.

    COYG

    Peter

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  • Peter
    Your views are very welcome but I think it is worth picking up on a couple of points.
    The disgraceful abuse that young Alex Lynch received as he was stretchered off never to play again happened in the 15th minute of the first half. There is simply no justification or excusing it. The actions of your supporters that day let your club down.
    In respect of Jason McCarthy head injury, well I had a pretty good view of it from the (home section) main stand and it certainly looked to me like he got a significant bang to the back of the head to me. Fair challenge from the Argyle forward but contact nonetheless. In terms of other player reaction, there was literally no difference to the first half injury to Galloway - in both cases both sets of players went to their benches leaving the physios to treat the injured party.
    Adams was a [email protected]&t - a view I think most Argyle supporters came round to if somewhat belatedly. But the manager now seems a decent guy and the club generally represents the city well. It’s about time this ridiculous persecution complex too many of your supporters seem to hold was put to bed. On Tuesday we were probably the better team and deserved to win. Had Argyle scored first perhaps they would have won instead. That’s football. Objectively were you hard done by in any way- no not remotely.

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  • I don't want them to put their persecution complex to bed; it's hilarious!

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  • @pafcprogs
    Peter, well done for the analysis and giving it the 48 hour (two over nights) test. No idea what you were saying about your players (just blokes in green shirts getting in the way) but interesting observations on our lads. Thanks for taking time to visit our forum, don’t worry be happy for the rest of the season.

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  • @Quarterman said:
    Personally (and I realise I’m probably in the minority) but I find tiki taka type football so boring to watch. Spain particularly are like watching paint dry. Teams passing back and forth across the back at the half way line I find infuriating. And this shirt goal kick dad that’s come into the game is ridiculous at our level. The players are just not good enough to make it effective at our level, there is no shame in that, so why teams continue to try it is beyond me.

    I wouldn’t want to watch Man City every week

  • Thanks for comments @pafcprogs useful to get an opposition view pre and post the game. As for time-wasting, like taking a throw-in a mile from where the ball went out, a lino not really doing anything about anything and all the wrestling in the box with some fouls given and others not...it's something every game throws up it seems to me...except everyone always thinks the other side are better (worse?) at it...

  • edited November 2021

    Tiki-taka doesn't really exist anymore - that was a very specific, quite extreme style - but I couldn't disagree more on City being boring to watch. Each to their own, though! (Fwiw, I find Liverpool the best to watch in the PL - can't beat a good bit of gegenpressing!)

  • Having spent a fair bit of time wallowing gloriously in PASOTI after the match, I made a point of looking at the full match replay to see whether Jason did indeed get a whack on the head. It's obvious that he did, and I can only conclude that the Plymouth fans didn't think so because it was an (entirely accidental) elbow rather than a clash of heads.

    The thing that I found laughable was that the primary evidence for the prosecution seemed to be that he'd made a full recovery before he came back on and had the temerity to do a couple of star jumps on the touchline before returning to the pitch. The player who goes down with a head injury and then starts to play on before he's fully recovered isn't "not a cheat". He's an idiot.

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  • @peterparrotface said:

    You must have got into epic rows with your fellow Scousers when Roy Hodgson was in charge

    There’s loads of Scousers on here now, proper ones with accents as well. Most Wycombe fans are now from the north I would say, if you include the 25 odd from Nottingham on here.

    We all came South for the work sir, when the mills closed down…

  • Over 13000 at Home Park, but the most noise they made all night was when we were taking throw ins, and when their team really needed them, they were silent.

  • @floyd said:
    Over 13000 at Home Park, but the most noise they made all night was when we were taking throw ins, and when their team really needed them, they were silent.

    More like Away Park amirite

  • They are claiming 14 minutes of stoppages at one point...as if their player being down for 6 or 7 minutes was not included. And this idea that every single ref books their player for a 'powder puff' challenge after letting numerous ones 'go' for us. I know we are in a post-truth era, but it I expect as someone else said that if we won 7-0 it would be down to long-balls, time-wasting and a poor ref giving us everything.

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