Difficult to say when we have players who are saleable assets and others like Anis, Ali etc who could make us considerable sums if they move clubs. Also, it’s not just about the debt, that is ignoring the money spent on improving the first team squad, launching the development squad, improving facilities at the stadium etc. Present football form excepted, we are a better club now than we were four years ago.
Really great post Oxford Blue. What I would say is financially we have no idea whether he will leave us in a worse position than before.
What we do know is that we would likely have gone into administration OR been sold to Bergkamp group if he hadn't have loaned £500k and then put in another £1M from memory
I understood we have "lost" about £3M-£3.5M per season for last three seasons. Around £8M of that was covered by the TV money from the Championship. Rob claims to have put about £4.5M in and we had debts of about £1.5M (including the 500K) I think.
If you add that all up, and there are no loans outstanding, then we are about to start running out of money this season.
2019-20 - deficit 1.5M - covered by Couhigs
2020-21 - deficit £3.5M - covered by Championship TV deal of about £8M and increased revenue
2021-22 - deficit £3.5M - covered by Championship TV Deal £4.5M leftover down to £1M
2022-23 - deficit £3M - £1M left over TV Money plus from Mehmeti sale and Ainsworth comp and probably £1M from Couhigs.
2023-24 - deficit £1.8M - if budget is reduced by 40% as has been claimed. £900k Lomtadze and £900k Couhigs.
This is where I'm sat with it all.
I think they've run out of money that they are willing to inject.
The key question as ever is not the total amount of debt but the total amount of any debt owed to third parties. Even then any material such debt will be known to buyer and he will have factored that in to the price he will be paying for Couhigs shares. This debt only becomes an issue if the buyer lacks funds to pay this debt off or if the buyer ends up being the Trust.
Debt owed to the Couhigs is quasi share equity and the two parties will have negotiated the best (probably most tax efficient) way of dividing proceeds on sale between debt less write off and share value.
While I agree with your points @aloysius, I think that the Wanderers Worldwide model fell flat on it's face. While we have a small Spanish/Mexican following and they come over every season, they have done very little to get the American audience interested in us.
I'd like to see where people (without VPN) are logging in from to watch the games online. I know Ryan Reynolds and Wrexham happened at the same time as our purchase but they have shown how to drive the American market to be interested in English Football. (I know that they are a household name compared to RC)
We really don't know much firm information about the finances and that does concern and annoy me as the trust should have a better idea as minority shareholders having signed up to a new deal recently. No doubt commercial sensitivity will be banded about and may pe partly the case.
The very fact that they're speaking to people about investment, some of the numbers being banded about, the lack of obvious return on investment so far or any start on major projects does support that idea that the Couhigs have exhausted how much they are prepared to spend or at least realise they can't do it their way alone.
People used to talk about buying football clubs if you win the lottery, you need a nation states finances to make an impact these days. A conscious decision was taken though to move from trying to break even to trying to improve the overall position by investment and borrowing, how well that has worked can't really judged until we know wether we'll be paying it off for decades.
I might be wrong here but wasn't there somebody from Wycombe who was interested in buying the club around the same time that the Couhigs came into view?
It was a former Wycombe player who built up a very successful IT(?) company and sold it for several million pounds, Being ancient, I can only remember his first name (Andy) although it will come to me of course as soon as I finish writing. He had a couple of former teammates with him including Kenny Wilson, a skilful winger. At the time I thought the Couhig’s bid sounded more promising. Who knows whether Andy and colleagues would have done a better job. Much as I liked Andy and his mates as people, I rather doubt it.
I saw a news link online only yesterday about Bergkamp and how he is still looking for a league one club to take over, he still wants to do it apparently. He was open and honest to say they were a very long way down the line to it happening, but the club then chose someone else, Couhigs. One of his things was to get the Academy up and running again. Sounds like quite a few ex players were going to join in and help, but he was going to be the main man.
Excellent thoughts from @OxfordBlue. My concern with the Couhigs from the start was the plan to do something no one else has ever managed at a lower league club. in 10-15 years we'll remember them for saving us from oblivion in 2019, and that's worth a great deal.
I have read that Rob shows sincerity and honesty. I can’t disagree with that but he has also, sadly, demonstrated arrogance and naivety in equal measure.
That was Andy Harman. I'll admit that I was underwhelmed by his pitch, though from what i can remember the main idea was not that we'd build an academy, but rather his associate would build one. He would get the lions share of income from from sales of graduates and we would have first dibs as the football club affiliated with it. The whole spectre of suspected third-party ownership would rear its head again after the whole Steve Hayes/Matt Phillips furore.
As part of the process to final rid ourselves of Sharky, it was agreed that he would receive a certain amount (all?) of any resale amount for Matt Phillips to pay off some/all of the debt to him.
A certain west county club, that got relegated from the EFL, tried to have this interpreted as third party ownership and to get us kicked out and themselves reinstated in the EFL.
Since the EFL had signed off on the deal when we kicked out Sharky they got no joy.
Comments
Is the debt really the same? I genuinely don't know.
Didn't the Couhig's wipe about 3M when they came in?
I'm not questioning Rob's integrity or sincerity, and I agree without him coming in, the club would likely be far worse off or perhaps even defunct.
Difficult to say when we have players who are saleable assets and others like Anis, Ali etc who could make us considerable sums if they move clubs. Also, it’s not just about the debt, that is ignoring the money spent on improving the first team squad, launching the development squad, improving facilities at the stadium etc. Present football form excepted, we are a better club now than we were four years ago.
Really great post Oxford Blue. What I would say is financially we have no idea whether he will leave us in a worse position than before.
What we do know is that we would likely have gone into administration OR been sold to Bergkamp group if he hadn't have loaned £500k and then put in another £1M from memory
I understood we have "lost" about £3M-£3.5M per season for last three seasons. Around £8M of that was covered by the TV money from the Championship. Rob claims to have put about £4.5M in and we had debts of about £1.5M (including the 500K) I think.
If you add that all up, and there are no loans outstanding, then we are about to start running out of money this season.
2019-20 - deficit 1.5M - covered by Couhigs
2020-21 - deficit £3.5M - covered by Championship TV deal of about £8M and increased revenue
2021-22 - deficit £3.5M - covered by Championship TV Deal £4.5M leftover down to £1M
2022-23 - deficit £3M - £1M left over TV Money plus from Mehmeti sale and Ainsworth comp and probably £1M from Couhigs.
2023-24 - deficit £1.8M - if budget is reduced by 40% as has been claimed. £900k Lomtadze and £900k Couhigs.
This is where I'm sat with it all.
I think they've run out of money that they are willing to inject.
Are you able to add anything to the rumours of an imminent deal being struck with the man from Kazakhstan?
Another poster mentions that you were in earshot of a conversation mentioning a possible trust vote on Tuesday..
The key question as ever is not the total amount of debt but the total amount of any debt owed to third parties. Even then any material such debt will be known to buyer and he will have factored that in to the price he will be paying for Couhigs shares. This debt only becomes an issue if the buyer lacks funds to pay this debt off or if the buyer ends up being the Trust.
Debt owed to the Couhigs is quasi share equity and the two parties will have negotiated the best (probably most tax efficient) way of dividing proceeds on sale between debt less write off and share value.
While I agree with your points @aloysius, I think that the Wanderers Worldwide model fell flat on it's face. While we have a small Spanish/Mexican following and they come over every season, they have done very little to get the American audience interested in us.
I'd like to see where people (without VPN) are logging in from to watch the games online. I know Ryan Reynolds and Wrexham happened at the same time as our purchase but they have shown how to drive the American market to be interested in English Football. (I know that they are a household name compared to RC)
We really don't know much firm information about the finances and that does concern and annoy me as the trust should have a better idea as minority shareholders having signed up to a new deal recently. No doubt commercial sensitivity will be banded about and may pe partly the case.
The very fact that they're speaking to people about investment, some of the numbers being banded about, the lack of obvious return on investment so far or any start on major projects does support that idea that the Couhigs have exhausted how much they are prepared to spend or at least realise they can't do it their way alone.
People used to talk about buying football clubs if you win the lottery, you need a nation states finances to make an impact these days. A conscious decision was taken though to move from trying to break even to trying to improve the overall position by investment and borrowing, how well that has worked can't really judged until we know wether we'll be paying it off for decades.
I might be wrong here but wasn't there somebody from Wycombe who was interested in buying the club around the same time that the Couhigs came into view?
“Dollar” Bill Luby, as I think Eric Plant wonderfully coined him, was the other American.
there was an ex player too, name escapes me…
Andy Harman
It was a former Wycombe player who built up a very successful IT(?) company and sold it for several million pounds, Being ancient, I can only remember his first name (Andy) although it will come to me of course as soon as I finish writing. He had a couple of former teammates with him including Kenny Wilson, a skilful winger. At the time I thought the Couhig’s bid sounded more promising. Who knows whether Andy and colleagues would have done a better job. Much as I liked Andy and his mates as people, I rather doubt it.
Wasn't he paired up with some bloke called Jim?
Thanks everyone! He appears to be a forgotten person in all of this but perhaps we wouldn't be in this state if he would've taken over?
Yeah, there was Bill and Jim, Bergkamp and co, Harman and the Couhigs
We'll never know if Bill and Jim were the football equivalent of Bill and Ted
Has Hugh Jackman been to see us yet?
I saw a news link online only yesterday about Bergkamp and how he is still looking for a league one club to take over, he still wants to do it apparently. He was open and honest to say they were a very long way down the line to it happening, but the club then chose someone else, Couhigs. One of his things was to get the Academy up and running again. Sounds like quite a few ex players were going to join in and help, but he was going to be the main man.
Sorry, every time someone mentions Dennis Bergkamp it's obligatory to post this https://youtu.be/IicmCu47pMo?feature=shared
Or Bill and Ben with the Flowerpot Men!
Strange he isn't looking for a club in the Netherlands?
Excellent thoughts from @OxfordBlue. My concern with the Couhigs from the start was the plan to do something no one else has ever managed at a lower league club. in 10-15 years we'll remember them for saving us from oblivion in 2019, and that's worth a great deal.
I have read that Rob shows sincerity and honesty. I can’t disagree with that but he has also, sadly, demonstrated arrogance and naivety in equal measure.
I'd go as far as contempt for fans (see also: his brother)
The only thing that unites most Wycombe fans is contempt for most Wycombe fans.
The moment when the realisation dawns on you that Chris Vinnicombe was right all along.
That was Andy Harman. I'll admit that I was underwhelmed by his pitch, though from what i can remember the main idea was not that we'd build an academy, but rather his associate would build one. He would get the lions share of income from from sales of graduates and we would have first dibs as the football club affiliated with it. The whole spectre of suspected third-party ownership would rear its head again after the whole Steve Hayes/Matt Phillips furore.
I really owe that man an apology!
What was the Steve Hayes/Matt Phillips issue?
Hadn't heard of that one.
As part of the process to final rid ourselves of Sharky, it was agreed that he would receive a certain amount (all?) of any resale amount for Matt Phillips to pay off some/all of the debt to him.
A certain west county club, that got relegated from the EFL, tried to have this interpreted as third party ownership and to get us kicked out and themselves reinstated in the EFL.
Since the EFL had signed off on the deal when we kicked out Sharky they got no joy.