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22 / 23 Season Attendance Prediction Competition



  • Catch up time for me - apologies to all - Four missing games on this thread - Charlton (a) - franchise (h) - Ipswich (a) and FGR (h). All data is transferred to the Master Data sheet for all four and it remains to take and edit the screenshots and write the posts. There should be more than one today and all four should be soon.

  • After the Charlton Away Game:

    @wwfcblue was correct, way back then, @BSE due congratulations for being the only one to register a prediction that counted. That prediction means that he pips @Erroll_Sims to 13th position by a single person over their ten best predictions over the 38 games so far.

    At this stage '3 points' separating 3rd to 14th!

  • edited April 2023

    This is a Catch up post, I have only just now posted the Charlton (a) game update so if you have just opened this post and want to experience the full drama of how the season is unfolding you might want to scroll back one to that post or my one before it for a partial explanation.

    After the franchise Home Game:

    This game congratulations to @Glenactico who registered a scoring prediction and consoldated 3rd place, also moving with striking distance of @a40 in 2nd.

    Congratulations to @robin who was the only forecaster to move 5 or more places, reaching 10th place.

    Congratulations to @Alexo, now in 21st place, who made a personal best prediction of the season.

    Congratulations also to @ryan_w_kirkby2 (now 27th), @DJWYC14 (now 9th) and @NewburyWanderer (now 7th) all of whom registered scores which moved them up the table.

    At this stage just '3 points' separate 4th from 15th. Closer maybe even than League One.

  • This again is a catch up post, the third today. Anyone wanting to experience the drama in chronological order needs to scroll back up to my post for the Charlton game or the one above it if you like reading partial explanations.

    After the Ipswich Game: [With the large sell-out home crowd]

    Many congratulations to @a40 who regains the top spot which I pinched after Game 27 - the Oxford home game. There is a 'goal difference' gap between the top two. @a40 also took Forecaster of the Week title as the closest forecaster for this game.

    Congratulations also to @PJS who climbs into 3rd place.

    Congratulations to @thecatwwfc, who missed the first ten games, has climbed to 20th and is within reach of the top ten within one game.

    Congratulations to @peterparrotface who recorded a new personal best prediction.

    The Forest Green Game update still to come. Look out for predicting on the Morecambe away threads.

  • Thanks @railwaysteve . Where does this put me on PPG?

    Asking for a friend.

  • @thecatwwfc - could you tell your friend that just counting the games played against P'boro (PPG) is beyond the spreadsheet at this time of night.

    [ I would just like at this point to mention that we have taken 6 points off them this season.]

    However an easy mod to the spreadsheet worked that you be in 8th place if you discount everyone else's first nine games. You would be "3 points with a slightly worse goal difference" behind the leader who would still be @a40 .

  • Haha amazing, I didn't expect you to work it out but thank you!!

  • edited April 2023

    Belated - with apologies. I hope the tension has not been too much for anybody, especially because after a long spell of few 'scoring' scores, I reckon the last few games have produced a much greater share of scores that will count

    After the Forest Green Game:

    For this game @SmiroludyBlue was Forecaster of the Week with a score of 38 - there were six others with scores under a hundred. Details for those all seven close forecasters will follow -

    However first many congratulations to @a40 who extends the lead at the top and records the first sub 50 top best 10 average for this season. Otherwise the top three remain static.

    Congratulations to @SmiroludyBlue, the top forecast of the week gains fourth place, only 'goal difference' behind 3rd.

    @ForeverBlue scored 50 for the match and moved up three places to 11th, with a bigger 10th best discard than all the players above, 5th place is reachable in a single game.

    @Shev scored 51 for the match and moved up two places to 8th, gaining a sub 100 average for the first time this season and also within reach of 5th in a single game.

    @wwfcblue scored 58 this match, gained a single place in the tightly packed area of the table, just outside the one hundred average zone.

    @DJWYC14 scored 81 for the match and gained two spots, a sub one hundred average and 8th place. It is one of the strange captivating anomalies of this game that @DJWYC14 in 7th, @bookertease in 6th and @Glenactico in 5th are all three within reach of 2nd if predictions went perfectly for them, but because @SmiroludyBlue in 4th would discard a better 10th best prediction so the perfect result would not be enough to reach 2nd in a single match.

    @Erroll_Sims scored 95 this match and gained 14th place from 16th place in what was and remains the tightest part of the table.

    The final forecast scoring less than one hundred was by @a40 - theprediction was out by 97 and extended the lead at the top of the table, to be say a couple of points rather than goal difference.

    Congratulations to @thecatwwfc who was the only forecaster in the top half of the table to move up by 5 or more places and who with just 29 predictions has reached 15th place and is now within reach of 6th.

    Congratulations also to @micra, also up 5 places in the table and to @thedieharder who had the biggest gain in overall score this match.

    I know there are more exciting to follow ....

    Thanks for your patience.

  • Belated again, again with apologies but catching up is happening .....

    After the Morecambe Away Game:

    This was Morecambe Annual Community Game with extra added home crowd, so most of us underestimated.

    Forecaster of the Week, @Commoner, aced it.

    Second closest forecaster of the week, @wwfcblue, recorded a new 10th best score, and decreased the 'Score' by 0.5.

    @micra who was 3rd closest for the game also recorded a new 10th best score! @micra's discarded improved his overall 'score' by 4.5 and consequently moved up two places.

    There were no other changes.

  • edited April 2023

    After the Cambridge United Away Game:

    Just a week ago - seems like an age.

    This prediction match was an @micra triumph - Forecaster of the Week, with the fairly rare distinction of a single digit winning score - only the 7th this season - so many congratulation indeed to @micra for hitting us all for six.. Five places up - from 20th to 15th and a new personal best score with the six. As the table stands @micra has the largest 10th best score in the top half of the table and is personally 'within 3 points' of 3rd place. To think that there was talk of relegation around Christmas time!

    Many congratulations also to @YorkExile who also recorded a new personal best score.

    Many congratulations also to @SmiroludyBlue who with a score that just topped 100 took 3rd place by just a whisker from @PJS .

    Apart from @micra and @YorkExile there were eight others who recorded scores of less than one hundred - congratulations all round to them -

    @Shev (21), up from 9th to 6th.

    @BSE (37), up from 17th to 13th - doesn't exactly gain a sub 100 average but definitely becomes a member of this years One Hundred Club, with a current best 10 game average of exactly 100.

    @thecatwwfc (54) also joins the One Hundred Club this week and climbs to 11th place - some achievement on just 31 predictions.

    ย @ForeverBlue (55) also joins the One Hundred Club and moves from 11th to 9th.

    @Manboobs (83), up from 25th to 21st

    ย @Will_i_ams (94)ย becomes a new member of the Two Hundred Club and moves up a place.

    ย @Alexoย (94), up from 26th to 23rd, in a part of the table where lots registered good predictions.

    ย @DJWYC14ย whose (98) kept 8th place in another crowded part of the table.

    There are others who made predictions in the Cambridge game which counted in their Score on here - both @Twizz and @Manboobs are examples as well as @SmiroludyBlue. It might a challenge next season to design the spreadsheets to automatically show when that happens.

    Happy predicting to all. Look out for the Cheltenham thread ....

  • Crikey. A late burst. Thanks, @railwaysteve for the kind words.

    And hope youโ€™re keeping ok.

  • edited April 2023

    This brings everything up to date. If anyone hasn't looked for a while I did the Morecambe game update Tuesday and the Cambridge game update yesterday (Weds).

    After the Lincoln Home Game:

    At the top of the table it is not quite a Manchester City situation yet. Great credit to @a40 who maintains what looks to me like a two point lead. Others who can reach the top over the next two games are @DJWYC14 @NewburyWanderer, who is now in 3rd position and say 5 points away and @PJS - say 6 points and a goal difference swing away.

    Forecaster of the Week @DJWYC14 deserves the plaudits and many congratulations due from this match, climbing the table from 8th to 3rd with a new personal best score of 16. Just goes to show how tightly packed that area of the table is at the moment.

    There were three other Forecasters with sub one hundred scores - @perfidious_albion (58) who was the other dramatic mover anolther tightly packed area of the table, the 120 to 140 score range, by moving up from 25th to 19th. @mooneyman (61) moves into that same crowded 'centre of the terrace on a good day' area that has best ten averages in the 120 to 140 range. @NewburyWanderer (63 for the match) regains a top ten place).

    Others who 'scored' include @robin who recieves congratulations for joining the One Hundred Club, @ryan_w_kirkby2, who I don't think will mind me saying now maintains contact at the fringes of the 'centre of the terrace group' despite moving down the table and @DevC who also slips slightly down the table but is now firmly in the middle of that group.

    Don't forget to predict for the Cheltenham game, lots still to play for!

  • After the Cheltenham Home Game:

    Many congratulations due to two people.

    To @NewburyWanderer, Forecaster of the Week and a score of just two, meant a leap from 10th to 4th place and a new personal best forecast for the season, joining an elite club of those with very close forecast.

    Equally many congratulations to @a40 who was second closest of the week with a score of 18, who extended the lead at the top of the table and can no longer be caught in a single game. I did my best.

    So many congratulations indeed to @a40 - Champion Forecaster of the Season - with a game to spare. There will be full details after the final details, but if you do still need a challenge @Shev won the 2018 / 19 season crowd prediction game with a best ten average of 34.2. To beat that you need to be closer than 56 to total crowd at the Portsmouth game....

    Back to the Cheltenham game - @Erroll_Sims was 3rd closest (186) and improved overall score by 0.9, not quite enough to move up the table from 18th.

    Both @MindlessDrugHoover (189) and @Will_i_ams (188) with the 5th and 4th best predictions this match did move a single place up the table.

    Happy predicting to all for the Portsmouth game.

  • Congratulations @a40 and also @railwaysteve for a strong 2nd placed showing and putting this whole thing together.

    I am suddenly nervous that I have a record that is under fire! But what do they say? Records are there to be broken, so all the best, @a40!

  • After the Portsmouth Away Game - End of the Season Final Standings:

    Changes this match:

    Many congratulations to @wwfcblue, Forecaster of the Week, who gained 3 places to reach 14th in the final table and joined the group with a sub 100 overall score. Only @thecatwwfc managed that elite achievement with fewer games predicted.

    @robin also managed a scoring score, but not quite enough to change the overall table.

    These were the only changes.

    End of the Season:

    Many congratulations indeed to @a40 - Forecaster of the Season - (well, on this thread anyway). Also the player with the most forecasts closer than 100, achieving that on 11 occasions, amazingly missing the attendance by 97 for the games against Forest Green both home and away.

    24th place was retired for the season, in rememberance of @ValleyWanderer, missed by many.

    Congratulations to @DJWYC14 - sixth halfway through the season after the Bristol Rovers home game, dropped out of the top ten and then climbed steadily back to 3rd. Congratulations to all those who managed a sub 100 average - I know how difficult this is because I only managed it for the first time this year.

    For @NewburyWanderer a consistency award - 3rd at halfway and 4th at the end of the season.

    A mention for @SmiroludyBlue in 5th place, who had the best '10th best prediction' outside the top two, another different marker for consistency.

    Congratulations to @PJS for the only spot on prediction of this season, being the first to predict that the original Burton away game would be called off.

    Congratulations to @Glenactico who was only one person away from the actual attendance for the home game against Accrington.

    All of the above, plus the rest of those in the top ten places, namely @Shev, @bookertease and @ForeverBlue were all 'within 3 points' of 3rd place at the end of the season as indeed was @thecatwwfc in 12th. This shows how close was competition this season.

    Close scrutiny of the table will also reveal it was so close that @thecatwwfc in 12th and @Commoner in 11th had identical best ten averages after the 46 games - 87.10. Their final places were allocated on the basis of best 'best prediction' which @Commoner took with a 'missing by just two' for the home game against the Argyle.

    @BSE deserves a mention for achieving a score of exactly 100 over the 46 games.

    Much credit to @DevC, @twizz and @robin, myself, (although I nearly didn't manage it once) and @a40 for predicting all 46 games, and thanks to @robin for helping by posting actual attendances on the thread in a timely manner on occasions.

    Credit to eveyone who predicted ten games. There are creditable predictions throughout the whole table. Note that @Forest_Blue and @Erroll_Sims were within eight for the Port Vale home game, @mooneyman was within twenty one for the Barnsley away game. The Burton away game and the two games against Ipswich provided scores in the thirties for @ryan_w_kirkby2, @peterparrotface, @Will_i_ams, @thedieharder and @perfidious_albion

    To round off the season a mention for those who have predicted less than ten times. This table is in no particular order, the alphabet plays a part as does the game first predicted.

    I intend to run the competition next season and produce an all time Hall of Fame in the meantime.

    Take care all.

  • Thanks for your efforts in running this entertaining but infuriating competition @railwaysteve . Congratulations to @a40 on an impressive win and to Steve on pushing him so close.

    As for my effort - pathetic seems to be the operative word. 10 people averaged better than my best score. But fear not, I will be busy over the summer training up an infinite number of monkeys โ€ฆโ€ฆ

  • Do I get any credit for being in mid table mediocrity for crowd prediction as well as scores?

    I thought not ....

    An excellent end of season summary @railwaysteve, our thanks to you and @railwaybeth for running the competition on during what must have been a trying season.

    I really must put a reminder in my diary now to start some pre-season training so as to do better next season. Maybe I'll try predicting how many spaces will be available in Aldi's car park when I arrive? As it can't hold much more than 100 there's a good chance I'll get some low scores in ๐Ÿค”.

  • A huge thank you to @railwaysteve for running this magnificent competition and with great predicting of your own, keeping the competition alive until the penultimate game. Itโ€™s certainly been enjoyable. I did think for a while you were going to disappear into the distance so Iโ€™m absolutely chuffed to have won.

    To celebrate I have made a small donation to @DevCโ€˜s worthy charity to recognise the time and effort you put in to make it all work.

    I look forward to defending the title next season.


  • Thanks @railwaysteve & @railwaybeth for running this, its been fun if infuriating at times.

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  • Many thanks @railwaysteve for running another fascinating competitions and thank you @railwaybeth for your contribution too.

  • Big thanks to @railwaysteve for running the comp again this year. Congratulations to @a40 for an amazing winning score.

  • Thanks as always @railwaysteve - a tremendous competition! And hats off to @a40 on the win!

  • Thanks @railwaysteve & @railwaybeth

    Shame to miss out out the play offs by such a thin margin. Although I accept the result, AI Swann had a few words to say regarding @PJS beating me to 6th based on an abandoned fixture prediction.

    Attendance Prediction Competition Scandal: PJS Beats Glenactico on Technicality

    By Al Swann | May 9, 2023

    Attendance prediction competitions have been rocked by a scandal that saw PJS claim victory over Glenactico on a technicality.

    The controversy began when it emerged that PJS had predicted a game at Burton would be abandoned, which resulted in them being awarded more points than Glenactico. The decision has sparked outrage among fans of attendance prediction, who have accused PJS of winning on a technicality.

    "What's even more outrageous is the fact that PJS has claimed victory on a technicality," said one fan. "It's a classic case of winning the battle but losing the war."

    The scandal has left Glenactico feeling robbed of their rightful victory. While they may have placed seventh in the competition, many feel that they were the true winners. Fans are now calling on the organizers to take a closer look at the rules and regulations to ensure that something like this never happens again.

    The controversy is just the latest in a string of incidents that have plagued attendance prediction competitions. Many now fear that technicalities and scandals will become the norm, and that the competition will lose its credibility as a result.

    As attendance prediction competitions continue to grow in popularity, it's important that organizers take steps to ensure that they are fair and transparent. Only then can fans be sure that the competition is being run in the right spirit.


    Chat GPT reveals flaws in its capabilities once again - AI Swann is far more coherent than the real version.

  • On behalf of the organisers:

    This is very good. Top class information is already to hand and a full explanation and apology will be given at the appropriate time. Meanwhile suffice it to say that I am very pleased that it was the already discredited Al Swan who was chosen to break the story.

  • Very belated 'Thank You' to @railwaysteve - for running this competition again this year and well done on your 2nd place.

    Delighted with my Top 5 place (makes up for my 'needs improvement' in the score prediction comp!).

    Lastly big congratulations to @a40 for your win by quite a margin!

    Looking forward to next season's competition.

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