22 / 23 Season Attendance Prediction Competition
and it continues - apologies to @Will_i_ams because you appear twice:
and apologies to @floyd for appearing twice.
Oh dear. I didn't leave any space to introduce an introduction above the table. No worries I think it is mostly self explanatory.
The competition is basically the same as last season. At the end of the season the winner will be the person with the lowest score which will be the average of the best ten forecasts that they have made.
Scores this week are the average of the best four forecasts that each player has made for the seven games up to this point.
The 'Best' column has the amount by which your closest prediction so far missed the actual attendance and the PB Match has the game when this happened.
The '4th Best column' has your worst prediction which is good enough to be included in your average - in other words the score you need to better to improve your average. For the Port Vale game this is the 4th best prediction, but this will change every other game until it reaches 10th best.
The movement column will be populated with arrows or emojis from the Port Vale game onwards. You can help me decide in the poll. If it is to be emojis I reserved the right to indulge my sense of humour on occasions and so there might not be complete consistency between weeks.
The line coloured like water company discharge separates those who have made sufficient predictions to work out a best 4 average and those who are perhaps working towards that number. Each person's actual number of forecasts is shown in the last column.
After all that congratulations to @bookertease who leads the competition at moment. Good work because it has been a tough start to the season.
- What is the best sort of symbol in the 'movement' column of these tables16 votes
- Arrows - like last season50.00%
- Emojis - somewhat like this 😊 😕 😂 50.00%
Hi @railwaysteve - thanks for organising and running this again, it is fun albeit frustrating at times; if only the right number of people would turn up at each game in line with my forecast...
Some very impressive predicting from the Top 3.
I won this competition the first season but since then I evidently would not be able to guess the attendance of a game played behind closed doors...
Good morning @railwaysteve .
I use emojis quite a lot in texts and emails but it seems they are open to potentially embarrassing misinterpretation as @Malone pointed out to me recently. Indeed, I thought your third emoji represented tears of laughter but as you’ve got a smiling face for upward movement, I’m guessing I’ve got that wrong! 🙄
Ok - Next week I will try emojis - the voting was quite close.
Here is the Match 8 Update - Accrington at home.
Congratulations to new Leaderboard leader @a40 whose score of 159 was good enough to knock 30 or so off the best 4 average.
Lots of movement in this early table - great upward jumps in the top half by @Manboobs, @SmiroludyBlue, @Erroll_Sims and @wwfcblue, who makes it into the top half.
In the aspiring to the top half zone, there were decisive moves in that direction by @Wendoverman, @Shev, @Glenactico - who landed the ace prediction this week, and @YorkExile.
Good luck to all predicting for the Derby game. Best 5 predictions will count after this game so there might be changes even if Rooney comes back and everyone is thousands out.
Oh my giddy aunt, I’m sure this won’t last long!
Match 9 - Derby away - Update
Despite the scepticism of a previous post @a40 remains at the top of the Leaderboard. Congratulations are due.
For Derby County there is no black or white, only shades of grey.
Their crowd proved difficult to predict and we all overestimated. Very few were close enough to make a significant difference to scores and consequently the order in the top half of the table remains the same.
@Forest_Blue, perhaps because of a proper locally based understanding of the nature of Derby crowds was able to be close enough for his score to significantly affect an average and so climbs two places.
A special mention for @therabbittest who made a 4th prediction of the season and so appears in the table for the first time. @therabbittest is also the only possessor of 'Derby (away)' as a personal best prediction so far. The third column shows each persons closest prediction and the fourth column shows in which game that was made.
The 5th column at the moment shows your current 5th best prediction which will count for the first time after the Sheffield Wednesday game.
The 6th column has the Score - this week the average of your best 4 predictions.
The 7th column still does not have emojis, the modernisation is proving more complicated than I first thought to automate.
The 8th and final colum has the number of games predicted so far this season. I would encourage all to forecast the attendance for the Sheffield Wednesday game, especially those who have four or five predictions so far.
After the Sheffield Wednesday - 'why do we play in front of 20,000 every week' game.
@a40 continues to lead the Leaderboard - 3 games in a row and another difficult to predict fixture against Plymouth at home coming up - is the peak unassailable? Again congratulations to @a40.
The top four remain unchanged despite the "Score" changing from average of 4 best to average of 5 best. @Twizz was the big mover of the week after recording the best prediction for the Sheffield Weds game [out by 177] and an own 4th best prediction so far.
The big upwards leap by @PJS was because of a very reasonable 5th best score for this stage of the season.
@Will_i_ams was a substantial mover in the bottom half of the Leaderboard with the 3rd best forecast for the game at Hillsborough and @Commoner made a decisive move away from the relegation zone the 2nd best prediction of the day.
A message for @thedieharder, @EJN and @therabbittest: a prediction within a hundred for the Plymouth game would lift your "score" by something in the approximate 350 - 500 range - think of it as a free hit.
Happy predicting all. I have yet to have solved the emoji problem, apologies for huckstering them.
Didn’t submit this week as in a different time zone and screwed up, still went up the chart, back in the top ten. Result 😀
After the Plymouth home game.
@a40 remains at the top of the current Leaderboard - and again many congratulations are due - especially as remarkably within the chasing group @bookertease, @Manboobs and @NewburyWanderer all recorded double digit scores and @Twizz also recorded a 'scoring' score. Congratulations to all those mentioned.
Further down the table @Commoner made a giant leap upwards with a score of just '2' this week. Other big movers were @YorkExile [up to 23rd], @ForeverBlue [up to 21st], @DJWYC14 [up to 20th], @BSE [into the top ten at 9th] and myself [up to 6th]. My own position is sure to be temporary, I think it is the highest I have ever appeared on the Leaderboard.
The 'Score to beat to improve' column gives everyone's 6th best prediction. This currently is not included in the "Score" which this week is an average of everyone's best five predictions so far, but it will be after the Oxford away game - so it is the one you need to outdo with forecasts for the game at the unfinished ground.
Happy predicting to all. I am still working on how to present emojis in the table.
@railwaysteve am I I'm it? Entered last few weeks. Realise I'm behind but just checking.
@thecatwwfc - Yes, you are still well in. Your 'best two' game average is a respectable 364 and your 'best three' game average is 944.33 - there have been very few close predictions over the last two games. At the moment 6 predictions is the number to appear on the main leaderboard, it will rise to 7 after the franchise game.
Leaderboard after the satisfying Oxford Game
Just now managing to do the catch up after a holiday with limited internet.
There were no close predictions for the Oxford game - it did look like they counted all the people that walked through the ghost stand in the Danny Hylton car park. The table would have been unchanged but for the number of predictions counting for the 'score' changing from 5 to 6.
Game 20 is when everyone's 10th best prediction to date counts for the first ten and the 'score' remains your best 10 predictions until the end of the season. It's a bit like acquiring a stable government. Until that time the number of predictions counting goes up by one every other game.
So those with a good pre-existing 6th best score moved up the table and those without did sink a little:
Congratulations to @a40 who stays firmly at the top of the table and to @bookertease who remains not so far behind. Congratulations to @NewburyWanderer who makes it to the top three.
All welcome to predict for the franchise game - I realise that some won't predict because in a better world the fixture would not exist, although I guess if they hadn't been a franchise but a proper club they might well be around the League One mark moving up by now, rather than the unloved disrespected entity that they are. Sucks to be them.
Peterborough game Leaderboard to follow .....
Leaderboard after the satisfying Peterborough Game
I have only just posted the Oxford game Leaderboard. Apologies. Anyone who has an unexpected position there is an explanation on that post.
The closest predictions for the Peterborough game were more than 200 away, so there was no dramatic movement at the very top of the table. Good ground was gained by @BSE - up from 15th into the top ten with a prediction which was out by 502 - it delivered a sizeable improvement on the least good of the counting predictions. [I hope that makes sense]
@Alexo moved considerably closer to those at the top of the table with the best score for the game which was 214. @LDF with a game score of 215 made a giant leap in the lower half of the table and @DJWYC14 moved much closer to the top half of the table with a prediction that was out by 581.
It is early days - 7th best predictions will count after the franchise away game, which looks as though it will produce at least some close games scores as the predictions so far have such a wide range.
Happy predicting .....
Leaderboard after franchise away game:
As might be expected @Glenactico takes a big leap up the table after recording the closest prediction for the attendance at the Deserted Unpopular Music Place with a score for the game of 23.
The size of everybody's jumps up and down the table was affected by this being the first occasion on which everyone's 7th best prediction has counted for the overall score in the table.
Congratulations certainly to @a40 who retains the spot at the top of the table, and has done since the Fleetwood match - so for half the season so far.
@BSE climbs into 3rd place with a sub 100 prediction [out by 55] for the franchise game and a personal best of the season so far.
@PJS moves into the top ten with the other sub 100 prediction [out by 80] - also a personal best.
@Erroll_Sims and @Forest_Blue also make substantial moves up the table.
It is early in the season and we have had a number of difficult to predict games, games where we have all been wrong in the same direction, big crowds at Derby and Wednesday and games (Oxford and franchise) where there has been some scepticism about the official numbers - very possibly due to season ticket holders staying away for some reason! The next few games offer better opportunities to win close or even correct forecasts of the crowd and the Leaderboard may well look different in two weeks time.
Good foresight to all with predictions for the Cambridge home game - best seven predictions will count in this competition afterwards. May our team succeed.
Leaderboard after the Cambridge Home Game
Many congratulations to @a40 who not only retains the top position for the 8th successive week but also manages the 3rd closest prediction for this game and opens up a wider gap to the rest of the field and closes in on a sub 100 average for the best predictions. It is now only just about possible for @a40 to be caught in one game and it needs someone else in the top four to land a near perfect prediction and @a40 to miss by more than 289.
The score to beat column shows each person's 8th best score because that will count for the first time after game 16 - the Morecambe Match.
Congratulations to @DJWYC14 on a move from 21st to 12th in the table - a combination of a good score of 175 for the Cambridge game and it replacing a 7th best score of 1015 in the best of seven average.
Congratulations also to Forecaster of the Week @Commoner who with a big leap closes in on the top half of the table.
A reminder for sometime forecasters at @LDF and @Wendoverman that a prediction for the Morecambe game is needed to stay included within the main Leaderboard. @thecatwwfc is currently on six predictions and so just two outside that table.
The Morecambe game should be another easier match to land a close forecast with maybe the added complication of having to allow for fireworks and a family fun day promotion.
@railwaysteve , mate I have the scars on my back trying to ensure formula errors don't kick in when running these competitions. I think you may have some errors here. You cant mathematically have for example XXX.50 as the average of best seven predictions. May be worth checking it out.
Thanks for running this. Its a really enjoyable if infuriating competition, which seems even harder than normal this season.
@DevC is correct. Thanks to @DevC . The change from 'best 6 average' to 'best 7 average' happened for the majority but not everbody across the whole spreadsheet. I'll fix it. Expect a post in an hour's time.
Revised tables for the Cambridge game - everyone now has a 'best 7 average' as their score. Tables with the 'best 8 averages' will follow.
Leaderboard after the Morecambe Game at home
We have a new person at the top! Many congratulations to @DevC. @a40 had been leading for 8 matches and drops back to 2nd.
The changes this match are all due to everyone's 8th best prediction now being counted in each person's score after the 16th game. @Wendoverman and @LDF no longer appear in the main table as they have only made 7 forecasts so far.
The competition stablises a bit in 4 matches time when the number of counting predictions becomes ten and remains at ten for the rest of the season.
@DevC has be remarkably consistent - all of his best 8 predictions so far are in the range 108 to 267.
It is now close at the top. In football terms, @DevC is a point clear of @a40, who is turn clear of a bunch of four who are all separated by goal difference. Anyone in the top six can reach the top of the table with a close prediction of the Port Vale home game.
The same applies lower down - for example if @Glenactico @Glenactico were to repeat the feat of just being one away from the attendance at the Accrington game 8th place is within reach.
Leaderboard after Home to Port Vale
The M40 was flooded and shut up shop on Tuesday afternoon but @A40 did the business. Forecaster of the Week with a nigh perfect score of two and a return to the top of the table. Many congratulations.
The top ten stayed as the top ten, with some interchanging of positions.
The Port Vale game was good for several people - as well as @a40: it was the closest prediction of the season so far for @PJS, @Erroll_Sims, @ValleyWanderer, @ryan_w_kirkby2 and @thecatwwfc.
After making an 8th prediction @thecatwwfc joins the table in 31st position
All quiet now until Forest Green away.
Thanks @railwaysteve & well done @a40
My predictions have mirrored the team of late and been a bit off, so I needed a good result. I owe it to the Port Vale fans who turned out in good numbers for a November Tuesday night. On reflection it’s easy to see why the home crowd has dropped off a bit though, four home matches in quick succession, some mediocre performances and a turn in the weather.
Lets hope for an upturn soon. As always, thanks for crunching the numbers @railwaysteve
After Match 18 - Forest Green Away:
Just reading the comment from @a40 on this thread after the Port Vale game and we did get and upturn in form at the Forest Green game and a very respectable Wycombe away crowd.
Indeed @a40 has also delivered by continuing excellent predicting form - Forecaster of the Week for the second match in a row and opening up a substantial lead at the top of the table. It looks like a 3 point lead now, although mathmatically I think I can just about catch up with some sort of bizarre goal difference type thing on Saturday. Many congratultions to @a40 for maintaining and extending a lead and for possessing a best 9 games score of close to one hundred at this stage of the season.
Congratulations to me also for being reasonable close, regular readers of this thread might remember that I have struggled hard to have a sub 100 average at the end of every season so far and not managed it yet.
Movement in the table this last week had two drivers - the inclusion of 9th best predictions for the first time and an apparently suprisingly small home crowd at the Fully Charged New Lawn. Nobody gained FGR (a) as their personal best prediction. Nobody moved 5 or more places up the table, the closest was @SmiroludyBlue who climbed four places.
9th best scores continue to be the 'worst' predicition that counts' for everyone after the next game at Cheltenham. After that it will be a best ten predictions average for the rest of the season and the competition gains a bit more stability.
For those just outside the main table - @therabbittest has 8 predictions, @Wendoverman and @LDF have 7 each, @peterparrotface and @EJN both have 5 each.
Cheltenham away looks to be one of the easier games to gain a close score - but I thought that about FGR away.
Good luck and happy forecasting to all.
After Match 19 - Cheltenham Town Away:
Many congratulations to @a40 who stays at the top despite not registering a result within the personal top nine for the Cheltenham game. Those who had somewhat close predictions for the game closed in a little. Personally I am on a very lucky run which is very unlikely to last.
The top ten remained largely unchanged - mentions for @NewburyWanderer, who changed places with @DevC with a close prediction this week and for @SmiroludyBlue, who joined the top ten for the first time this season. Lower down the table, big moves upwards for @DJWYC14 and @Commoner with solid predictions for the total crowd at Cheltenham.
I try not to be one to put the boot in, but towards the foot of table @micra is in real danger of being caught quite soon because @thecatwwfc has now landed on his feet and form shows a readiness to pounce. @micra - you are welcome to tell me to put a sock in it.
Tenth best predictions will count for the first ten after the Portsmouth game and it will be each person's best ten predictions which count for their score throughout the rest of the season. At this point the competition gains a bit more stablity.
Happy predictiing to all.
Much cuter this way round....
All I want for Christmas!
I’n trying to put my finger on the reason for my abject performances this season. I think the Wembley experience knocked the stuffing out of me and an unprecedented loss of enthusiasm on my part for all things Wycombe Wanderers has been reinforced by the dismal recent displays on the pitch. It really does feel like groundhog days.
My inability to recognise what Sam Vokes brings to the party is well known of course but it must be frustrating to the rest of the team to see him on the ball so little and posing virtually no threat to opposition defenders. Someone recently suggested the radical idea of passing the ball to him on the deck. That would be interesting but the limited evidence of his ability to quickly control and react with the ball at his feet in scoring positions (witness the second half at Wembley and a League game earlier this season) does not encourage optimism.
This state of mind has, for me, killed the incentive to research attendance histories, weather forecasts and other data that, in previous seasons, has enabled me to make reasonably sensible predictions.
I don’t like being bottom so perhaps I’ll try to rekindle some of the lost enthusiasm!!
After Match 20 Portsmouth game:
Finally this post has come to pass. That was a very good week for us collectively, and in particular @BSE. @robin, @ForeverBlue and @micra, who all recorded their best predictions of the season so far. In addtion the match result wasn't bad!
Please note that @micra is true to his word, having said that he wants to avoid the bottom spot, he is now three of the bottom slot. I am going to try not to jinx @thecatwwfc who didn't start the competition until Match 10 and continues to close the gap.
Because lots of us were close there were no big jumps up the table. @Erroll_Sims rejoined the top ten, @BSE and @robin move up into 4th and 5th within reach of @NewburyWanderer in third and the top two swap places.
The game stabilises a bit from this point onwards because it is the average of the best ten predictions that count for each person until the end of the season. If your prediction in any one week is closer to the actual attendance than your '10th Best Prediction' which appears highlighted as a 5th column, then your score, highlighted in gold, will improve.
For those that want to know the maths, if there is an improvement the score improves by a tenth of the difference between your score for the week and your previous tenth best score. That does mean that a maximum possible improvement is a tenth of your 10th best prediction score.
My own target for every year so far has been to reach a best ten average - Score - of less than one hundred. Just maybe, this season, I will manage it for the first time.
The post for the Lincoln game should follow soon!
After Match 20 - Lincoln away game:
I had to check and recheck this one, and it turns that a quite unusual circumstance did actually occur - @Alexo dropped a single place in the table despite having a personal best prediction of the season for the Lincoln game. Congratuations are due to @Alexo for the top prediction and also for having a series of other good scores which could produce that anomoly. The forecaster who has nipped by on the inside was @Erroll_Sims by virtue of also scoring well with the Lincoln game and discarding a worse previous 10th best prediction. Also contributing to the strange situation in the 'just outside the play off zone' were @Twizz and @SmiroludyBlue who both also recorded good scores for the Lincoln game and discarded high previous 10th best scores so managed to retain top ten places which otherwise @Alexo could have reached. The outcome is that those four forecasters in particular are very close together in the table.
Congratulations are also due to @micra, Forecaster of the Week for the Lincoln game and also recording his own personal best forecast of the season so far. Go again @micra.
The other really close zone in the table is positions 18th to 24th where a **score** of 10 seperates seven people - in football terms that is about equivalent to being separated on goal difference.
Mild congratulations are due to myself for staying top of the table despite producing the worst prediction of the lot for the Lincoln game. @a40 remains very close in 2nd place. There is perhaps a '4 point' gap to @NewburyWanderer in third and a tight chasing group another two points further back.
Happy predicting - the Ipswich game thread up soon.
Thanks for the kind words @railwaysteve.
I’ve got something to live up to now. Tricky one this weekend.