@ReturnToSenda said:
For instance, McCleary, off the top of my head, has 6 goals from under 2 xG - but none of us will be surprised by that as we know he's an outrageous finisher.
@Quarterman said:
The reason xG is not loved is because the game is about goals. There is some value to it in certain circumstances, I.e., when the game is 0-0 and it exemplifies who may be on top but not a lot else. But even then it is not a great indicator as it doesnt take into account the team’s approach. For example, an away team may look to defend deep and soak up pressure for long periods and concede a lot of ‘poor quality’ chances that would add up. The counter attacks may be rare so xG is lower but that is the plan.
The old adage of goals change games is also important - how a game is played will always affected by the goals in it. Wycombe are actually a great example of why xG isn’t that valuable. When we lead a game, we are not particularly interested in extending that lead. We deliberately time waste and manage the game. We are not bothered about scoring more as, most as it’s not my preferred approach, whether you defend a lead or extend a lead the end product will be 3 points. For example, if an away team scores a world class goal on the first minute they then know a clean sheet will result in 3 points. The game plan would be to soak up pressure and even a team defending perfectly will give up some poor chances which add up. The home team would ‘win’ on xG despite it being a comfortable 3 points.
Stats are an interesting indicator especially over a long period of time and, for example, the way you present them is interesting and informative, but they are only part of the picture. Football is a complex game made up of so many team and individual elements and just cannot be condensed into a few numbers.
It is valuable as an indicator of creativity, though - and we have the third or fourth-best (I need to check) attack in the league by that metric. We're scoring plenty, too, so it adds up. But you have explained perfectly why it can be misleading when looked at for individual games.
@LeedsBlue said:
I guess the answer is, there’s a place for both ?
I agree with that - I was just curious as to how 'dangerous attacks' are defined as it seems quite subjective. You can't always quantify domination - and you're always going to get the best idea from watching the game at hand!
A 'Dangerous attack' is very strictly defined as 'a forward move that results in at least 2.5% of the oppositions fans weeing in their pants.'
@ReturnToSenda and to be fair you have explicitly stated (I read after writing my post) that you only really look at xG so in that sense it’s a better tool. Stats are interesting while looking a a whole picture and you do get the balance right hence your stuff is always an interesting read, but often some are far too focussed on it. Possession is a classic example that seems to be focussed on so strongly. Many teams (including us) are not interested in possession, but you’ll get fans saying ‘we lost but had 63% possession so we deserved more’ when the stat in that context is almost irrelevant.
I think using as a stat in individual games (like Sky, BT etc) and without context against other stats is what gets people’s backs up.
Possession is a great example of how even basic stats are misused. Same goes for shots on target - you can easily have five shots on target that are all routine saves for the 'keeper, whereas five off the inside of the post don't go down as on target but are closer to being goals.
Yes, how Thommo escaped a second yellow there was beyond me, but I was grateful. As for support even in the top six and only having rarely lost on here you have a regular 'this is dog****' as if we have never come back from a poor performance or from being behind in the 90. For me unlike past seasons when a single goal looked to have undone a battling performance, we never look out of it and have attacking players who are exciting to watch. Frustrating sometimes yes...but all of the home games I have seen and those on ifollow have been good games to watch. Every week.
@drcongo said:
I like the stats they do on US soccer coverage to try to make football like one of their weird sports. My favourite is “box penetrations”.
That's just 'entries into penalty area' phrased in an American way
@drcongo said:
I like the stats they do on US soccer coverage to try to make football like one of their weird sports. My favourite is “box penetrations”.
That's just 'entries into penalty area' phrased in an American way
I’m guessing he knows that but both seem like things we like more of in life.
Well we did kind of get an update on Nick Freeman yesterday. I recall reading that he is back on the treadmill and therefore it shouldn’t be long before he resumes light training? I’m hopeful we may get to see him as competition to McCarthy at RWB at some point during the second half of the season.
The possession stats one is interesting. I feel that, particularly since Leicester’s PL win, people are much more aware that it’s what you do with the ball that counts. So, in a way, time and greater exposure to the bald statistic have contributed to a more sophisticated use of it.
I’m not a fan of the plethora of statistics that are available these days. They just bore the hell out of me.
What I do like however is that they can provide someone like @ReturnToSenda lots of data to look at, analyse and occasionally produce excellent translations using the intelligence gathered to make me feel more informed.
So much as mentioning xG goes completely over my head I am glad that information is around these days for people with the time and inclination to look at it.
@Gary said:
Well we did kind of get an update on Nick Freeman yesterday. I recall reading that he is back on the treadmill and therefore it shouldn’t be long before he resumes light training? I’m hopeful we may get to see him as competition to McCarthy at RWB at some point during the second half of the season.
That’s right @Gary. Nick was alongside @bluntphil on commentary yesterday and said that his rehab was progressing well, he’s jogging on the treadmill and expects to be back on the grass soon. @EwanHoosaami, who I believe is a qualified chiropractor/physiotherapist, may have a feel for how soon Nick is likely to be playing again. I thought he was excellent playing as a right side wingback.
Whilst I would love either of those titles @micra, soft tissue is more of my field @micra. In short though, from my experience, (not remembering exactly when the injury occurred), I doubt Nick will be permitted to play much before the end of January. There are many factors involved, not least the surgeons reputation, not wanting to risk an early return & similarly that of Cian. Cian in particular tends to be on the cautious side.
Thanks for that @EwanHoosaami. I knew you dealt with limbs in some manner!! I can’t remember when Nick incurred the injury either but I think at the time the feeling was that he might be out for the season so late January would be a bonus. Hope that isn’t giving away too much to our competitors!
Not heard of Cian but assume he is part of the club medical ‘team’. He may be the person whose name I’ve not seen in print so thought he was Sean or Shaun !
The name is of the chief club physio "Cian O'Doherty" . A chap who's knowledge appears to be really extensive and has a track record of getting players ready sooner than most. He never allows players back earlier than necessary regardless of any external pressures.
@LeedsBlue said:
It’s not that I don’t have the intellectual capacity to understand it... but thanks anyway
Sorry, I wasn't suggesting that! What is it that makes you call it nonsense, though?
Because it’s trying to put a statistical metric on an opinion.
There’s no better way of killing a conversation about a game than someone pulling out a spreadsheet.
“Well, ahhctually I think you’ll find he had a 0.023 chance of scoring from that point given the ball, position, size, amount of spin appliedC the day of the week and angle of the sun”
I mean, how good a goal was bayo’s considering it’s relative xG - said no one since he scored it on Saturday.
@LeedsBlue said:
It’s not that I don’t have the intellectual capacity to understand it... but thanks anyway
Sorry, I wasn't suggesting that! What is it that makes you call it nonsense, though?
Because it’s trying to put a statistical metric on an opinion.
It's really not.
It really is. Just go back to the video you posted and the opening few lines
“He should have had a hat trick”
“He’s got to do better there”
“He’s got to score”
“These are the things commentators and fans have been saying but how true are they? It’s been very hard to tell until the expected goals metric was created”
Literally 3 typical opinions and a statistical metric made up to capture them
xG has a place in the sport. For bookmakers, gamblers and football clubs to be able to access there performance. But for your average fan is chuffing boring.
@LeedsBlue said:
It’s not that I don’t have the intellectual capacity to understand it... but thanks anyway
Sorry, I wasn't suggesting that! What is it that makes you call it nonsense, though?
Because it’s trying to put a statistical metric on an opinion.
I mean, how good a goal was bayo’s considering it’s relative xG - said no one since he scored it on Saturday.
No, because literally no one who understands xG discusses it in those terms.
Literally no one outside of a spreadsheet and big data analysis world gives two hoots about it. And if they do there mates won’t thank them for bringing it up mid convo
Comments
It's how you use it. Matron.
It is valuable as an indicator of creativity, though - and we have the third or fourth-best (I need to check) attack in the league by that metric. We're scoring plenty, too, so it adds up. But you have explained perfectly why it can be misleading when looked at for individual games.
Also important to take the number of shots into account, which not enough people do.
A 'Dangerous attack' is very strictly defined as 'a forward move that results in at least 2.5% of the oppositions fans weeing in their pants.'
@ReturnToSenda and to be fair you have explicitly stated (I read after writing my post) that you only really look at xG so in that sense it’s a better tool. Stats are interesting while looking a a whole picture and you do get the balance right hence your stuff is always an interesting read, but often some are far too focussed on it. Possession is a classic example that seems to be focussed on so strongly. Many teams (including us) are not interested in possession, but you’ll get fans saying ‘we lost but had 63% possession so we deserved more’ when the stat in that context is almost irrelevant.
I think using as a stat in individual games (like Sky, BT etc) and without context against other stats is what gets people’s backs up.
....look at xG over a long period.....
Yeah, the broadcasters generally do a bad job with it
Possession is a great example of how even basic stats are misused. Same goes for shots on target - you can easily have five shots on target that are all routine saves for the 'keeper, whereas five off the inside of the post don't go down as on target but are closer to being goals.
Yes, how Thommo escaped a second yellow there was beyond me, but I was grateful. As for support even in the top six and only having rarely lost on here you have a regular 'this is dog****' as if we have never come back from a poor performance or from being behind in the 90. For me unlike past seasons when a single goal looked to have undone a battling performance, we never look out of it and have attacking players who are exciting to watch. Frustrating sometimes yes...but all of the home games I have seen and those on ifollow have been good games to watch. Every week.
Harris was underrated
I like the stats they do on US soccer coverage to try to make football like one of their weird sports. My favourite is “box penetrations”.
That's just 'entries into penalty area' phrased in an American way
I’m guessing he knows that but both seem like things we like more of in life.
@peterparrotface What have you got in mind? MacArthur Park?
Any updates on the injuries/illnesses regarding Scowen, Stewart and Wheeler? I know I am not supposed to ask or expect any detail but what the heck ?
Well we did kind of get an update on Nick Freeman yesterday. I recall reading that he is back on the treadmill and therefore it shouldn’t be long before he resumes light training? I’m hopeful we may get to see him as competition to McCarthy at RWB at some point during the second half of the season.
Supposedly Tafazolli wasn't ill as reported and had actually had a niggle
You’d have thought anyone with an ounce of Wycombe knowledge would stay clear of using illness as a fake reason for a player being missing.
The possession stats one is interesting. I feel that, particularly since Leicester’s PL win, people are much more aware that it’s what you do with the ball that counts. So, in a way, time and greater exposure to the bald statistic have contributed to a more sophisticated use of it.
I’m not a fan of the plethora of statistics that are available these days. They just bore the hell out of me.
What I do like however is that they can provide someone like @ReturnToSenda lots of data to look at, analyse and occasionally produce excellent translations using the intelligence gathered to make me feel more informed.
So much as mentioning xG goes completely over my head I am glad that information is around these days for people with the time and inclination to look at it.
That’s right @Gary. Nick was alongside @bluntphil on commentary yesterday and said that his rehab was progressing well, he’s jogging on the treadmill and expects to be back on the grass soon. @EwanHoosaami, who I believe is a qualified chiropractor/physiotherapist, may have a feel for how soon Nick is likely to be playing again. I thought he was excellent playing as a right side wingback.
Whilst I would love either of those titles @micra, soft tissue is more of my field @micra. In short though, from my experience, (not remembering exactly when the injury occurred), I doubt Nick will be permitted to play much before the end of January. There are many factors involved, not least the surgeons reputation, not wanting to risk an early return & similarly that of Cian. Cian in particular tends to be on the cautious side.
Thanks for that @EwanHoosaami. I knew you dealt with limbs in some manner!! I can’t remember when Nick incurred the injury either but I think at the time the feeling was that he might be out for the season so late January would be a bonus. Hope that isn’t giving away too much to our competitors!
Not heard of Cian but assume he is part of the club medical ‘team’. He may be the person whose name I’ve not seen in print so thought he was Sean or Shaun !
The name is of the chief club physio "Cian O'Doherty" . A chap who's knowledge appears to be really extensive and has a track record of getting players ready sooner than most. He never allows players back earlier than necessary regardless of any external pressures.
Because it’s trying to put a statistical metric on an opinion.
There’s no better way of killing a conversation about a game than someone pulling out a spreadsheet.
“Well, ahhctually I think you’ll find he had a 0.023 chance of scoring from that point given the ball, position, size, amount of spin appliedC the day of the week and angle of the sun”
I mean, how good a goal was bayo’s considering it’s relative xG - said no one since he scored it on Saturday.
It's really not.
No, because literally no one who understands xG discusses it in those terms.
I'm just impressed that he finished without even penetrating the box.
It really is. Just go back to the video you posted and the opening few lines
“He should have had a hat trick”
“He’s got to do better there”
“He’s got to score”
“These are the things commentators and fans have been saying but how true are they? It’s been very hard to tell until the expected goals metric was created”
Literally 3 typical opinions and a statistical metric made up to capture them
xG has a place in the sport. For bookmakers, gamblers and football clubs to be able to access there performance. But for your average fan is chuffing boring.
Literally no one outside of a spreadsheet and big data analysis world gives two hoots about it. And if they do there mates won’t thank them for bringing it up mid convo