Tour de Season 21 / 22 - Attendance Prediction Competition
Here are the Competition Scores after Match 4 - Lincoln at Home on 21/8
It is average of your best predictions which counts and that is in the final column.
At the moment it is just an average of the best two predictions - it will increase by one extra counting prediction every two matches and by Christmas it should be the average of the best ten. It will then be the best ten attendance predictions which count until the end of the season when we will have an overall winner.
Anyone is still welcome to join in. I will put up a thread for the Sunderland away game soon today, perhaps the biggest challenge of the season.
At the moment the prediction you would need to improve is the 2nd best in the 2nd column. This can mean big changes - for example @davebevan in 27th place could take the lead with a prediction that was within 60 of the actual attendance at Sunderland.
Leaderboard - Season Long Attendance Prediction Competition
| Position | Forecaster | Best | 2nd Best | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @Commoner | 11 | 94 | 52.5 |
| 2 | @a40 | 90 | 99 | 94.5 |
| 3 | @floyd | 66 | 141 | 103.5 |
| 4 | @MindlessDrugHoover | 116 | 142 | 129 |
| 5 | @Will_i_ams | 35 | 253 | 144 |
| 6 | @mooneyman | 107 | 194 | 150.5 |
| 7 | @HCBlue | 132 | 172 | 152 |
| 8 | @our_frank | 70 | 240 | 155 |
| 9 | @username123 | 79 | 260 | 169.5 |
| 10 | @DevC | 107 | 263 | 185 |
| 11 | @eric_plant | 66 | 325 | 195.5 |
| 12 | @BSE | 27 | 372 | 199.5 |
| 13 | @peterparrotface | 19 | 401 | 210 |
| 14 | @YorkExile | 175 | 272 | 223.5 |
| 15 | @ValleyWanderer | 175 | 324 | 249.5 |
| 16 | @thedieharder | 217 | 294 | 255.5 |
| 17 | @DJWYC | 206 | 326 | 266 |
| 18 | @twizz | 229 | 326 | 277.5 |
| 19 | @ryan_w_kirby | 76 | 484 | 280 |
| 20 | @SmiroludyBlue | 218 | 375 | 296.5 |
| 21 | @NewburyWanderer | 271 | 323 | 297 |
| 22 | @robin | 158 | 441 | 299.5 |
| 23 | @wwfcblue | 16 | 584 | 300 |
| 24 | @PrinceofCrowell | 213 | 394 | 303.5 |
| 25 | @bookertease | 305 | 368 | 336.5 |
| 26 | @Manboobs | 249 | 438 | 343.5 |
| 27 | @davebevan | 39 | 660 | 349.5 |
| 28 | @JohnBoy | 221 | 525 | 373 |
| 29 | @bigred87 | 279 | 500 | 389.5 |
| 30 | @ForeverBlue | 243 | 567 | 405 |
| 31 | @Alexo | 373 | 449 | 411 |
| 32 | @BlueBoy | 351 | 500 | 425.5 |
| 33 | @Forest_Blue | 270 | 581 | 425.5 |
| 34 | @micra | 440 | 449 | 444.5 |
| 35 | @PJS | 347 | 547 | 447 |
| 36 | @wendoverman | 383 | 539 | 461 |
| 37 | @Errol_Sims | 459 | 617 | 538 |
| 38 | @railwaysteve | 489 | 607 | 548 |
| 39 | @perfidious_albion | 148 | 979 | 563.5 |
| 40 | @Shev | 527 | 684 | 605.5 |
Comments
To think I once won this competition! If I get relegated at least I'll be able to talk about the glory days and complain about the tinpot lower prediction leagues I am stuck in...
"Early days, Early days" @Shev - we have some of the finest forecasters we can find all over this competition and end of season drama is part of our history.
I dorn’t think Sooonderland ever won the Premier League so you have the edge there @Shev.
Leaderboard after the Sunderland away game
Early in the season so some substantial changes - the best two predictions are counting at the moment. @our_frank has moved into 2nd place, very close indeed to @Commoner who retains the lead.
The third best prediction will count after the Ipswich game if indeed that is our next league game. I will attempt to convert the movement column to fancy arrows by the time of the next match.
Leaderboard after the Oxford away game
There were close predictions in this game (as well as some nearly goals), and the competition score has changed to being the average of the best three predictions so there has been a shake up with positions in the table.
@a40 is the new leader after landing a prediction within 68 for the Oxford game. @floyd, who gained a 65 for this game, joins him at the top of the table with the only other sub one hundred average.
Last week's leader @Commoner slips to 5th, but currently retains the single best prediction - 11 away for the game at Cheltenham.
Presentation of the figures - 3rd best is included because that is the personal figure anyone must improve to move up the table with their Charlton game prediction.
The double up arrows mean a movement up the table of more than 5 places @Twizz, @ForeverBlue and @SmiroludyBlue all achieved this with close predictions for the Oxford game.
At the other end of the table @davebevan and @PrinceOfCrowell both have two qualifying predictions so can regain a score with any prediction for the next game. It seems sensible to drop people off the score sheet if they fail to register a score for three consecutive game.
Next game - Charlton thread should be up tonight. Best three predictions will continue to count for this game.
@railwaysteve my head hurts just trying to get round the amount of time and energy both yourself and @DevC put into running these competitions.
It's great fun and immensely satisfying when you have a good week like I have. Sadly it's very much guess work - on my part at least - so next week I could be 1000+ out and ruin my good form.
Leaderboard after the Charlton Home Game
@our_frank moves to the top with a cracking score of 82 for the Charlton game, the second forecaster to have three sub one hundred predicitions. @Will_i_ams and @floyd are also sub one hundred for the average of their best three.
The 'double' up arrows are for those who have jumped 5 or more places.
Next Game The franchise away game thread will be up probably tomorrow. It will be our 8th league game of the season and the score for the game will become the average of the each persons best four predictions.
Leaderboard after the franchise away game
After some close predictions for Saturday and everyone's 4th best prediction counting for the first time there are several changes. Indeed the top three completely swap places.
Congratulations to @Will_i_ams who is the new leader with a very creditable average of 65.5 for the closest 4 predictions. @40 is the only forecast to have 4 double digit or less predictions.
The big movers of the week were @thedieharder and @PJS who both had solid predictions for the franchise away game.
Admin
I have added a column for number of predictions made - everyone will need 5 by the tenth game - Morecambe at home on Saturday - to stay in the competition. I will change the leaderboard to only show those players at that time. @HCblue wouldl need to predict both the next two games and @perfidious_albion at least one of the two. Nobody else is in danger of dropping out. I look likely to reach the bottom of the table.
Next game
Shrewsbury away on Tuesday night. The 4th best prediction is the one you need to beat to improve your score.
Thanks for the heads up, @railwaysteve. May I please go 4,320 at Shrewsbury?
So I assume my revised figure for the Charlton game, posted on Wednesday 15 September, was ruled out. Apologies, @railwaysteve, for not having looked back at the rules.
@HCblue - I have put this on the game thread and the game spreadsheet for you.
Here we go - my phone will connect to the Roya Shrewsbury free wifi and do everything it normally does, but my chromebook will not. However the phone does have a data signal and can do the hotspot thing so now everything is normal.
Leaderboard after the Shrewsbury away game
The top three remain the same - the good score achieved by @eric_plant for the Shrewsbury gives a 4th person a sub 100 score and a position just outside the top three.
@wwfcblue, @YorkExile, @DJWYC14, @Shev and @HCblue all make substantial moves up the leaderboard.
.
Good luck to all with the Morecambe game predictions. This table does include the 5th best prediction for the first time, because that prediction will be added into your average with the Morecambe game unless that game produces a better prediction for you.
@HCblue and @perfidious_albion don't have a fifth prediction yet so any Morecambe predicition will be it.
@TheAndyGrahamFanClub please keep predicting, if you do you will eventually end up with a score.
First the correction for the table from the Shrewsbury game, due to missing the score of 10 for @thedieharder and giving the 10 instead of 47 to @Alexo.
In consequence @thedieharder jumps quite a few places and @Alexo drops fractionally.
Apologies again to both for the mistake and credit to @username123, firstly for spotting the mistake and secondly for pointing it out in a careful way. [Shout out for the Gasroom culture!]
All other scores have been scrutinised and I am confident that they are ok and the table for the Morecambe game should be able to follow soon.
Revised table for Shrewsbury game
The Morecambe Game Thriller
Again some close predictions on Saturday as well as a closely fought game on the actual pitch, and in addition with everyone's 5th best prediction counting for the first time there is turmoil at the top of the table.
@our_frank is now back at the top - congratulations for excellent predicting. Sharing the distinction of a sub one hundred score for the average of the best five predcitions are @a40 and @eric_plant. Nobody now has all their scoring predictions as double digit ones.
Big leaps up the table were made @DJWYC, @bookertease and @JohnBoy - all of whom were close with the Morecambe game.
Admin
The final column shows the number of predictions made - everyone will need 6 by the twelth game to continue to register a score in the competition, that's the Doncaster away game on Sat 16th October
@davebevan and @PrinceOfCrowell have dropped off the leaderboard, that is the admin step I will take for those who do not post a prediction for 5 games. If anyone wants to rejoin, post a prediction and you will rejoin the leaderboard - with or without a current score as appropriate
@TheAndyGrahamFanClub and @LDF - just keep making predictions and you will enter the table with a score, almost certainly above myself.
@perfidious_albion needs a single prediction to register a score
Next game
Gillingham at home on Saturday - that prediction thread is already live. The 5th best prediction is the one you need to beat to improve your score.
Leaderboard after the Morecambe home thriller
thanks, @railwaysteve I fear my luck won't hold much longer.
Very good of you to do this - all the more so under the current circumstances. How did the @bluntphil commentary work for you?
I love @bluntphil's commentary - I had a heart trace on throughout the game - so the effect of his commentary will be scientifically measureable.
The Gillingham Home Game Recordbreaker
Closer predictions still this Saturday with all the top ten gaining sub one hundred scores. Fine margins at the top and we now have 6 scores at less than one hundred with four of them close together in the high 90s.
Congratulations to @eric_plant who takes back the lead from @our_frank with a predicition of 5058 for the Gillingham game, with a personal best score of 66. @username123 and @DJWYC14 were the others in the leading bunch to land notable scores this month.
Congratualtions also to @Forest_Blue who also lands a personal best and consequently jumps up the table.
Admin
The final column shows the number of predictions made - everyone will need 6 by the next game Doncaster away on Sat 16th October. Your 6th best predicition now shows in the table as that is the one that you need to beat next game to improve your overall score.
@TheAndyGrahamFanClub and @LDF - if you carry on making predictions and you will enter the table with a score, almost certainly above myself.
@perfidious_albion now needs two predictions to register a score.
Next games
Doncaster away on Saturday and Rotherham away on the following Tues - seeing as they are geographically close as well as close on the calender, I was considering having both games on the same thread or open at the same time. So I am canvasing views on that.
Doncaster Away - Yorkshire Adventure (Part 1)
We are definately improving at this with this week the average only out by 67 and 12 predictions within a hundred of the actual attendance. The sixth best prediction counts for the first time as this was the 12th game. These two factors have given the table a bit of a shake. Interesting the top ten remain the same, but no one except @bookertease in 10th keeps their original place.
Congratulations to @our_frank who takes back the lead from @eric_plant reversing the change last week. @username123 now heads the chasing bunch.
@our_frank has what would be a substantial lead were this the end of the season, but as there are the 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th best scores still to be added in, changes can be expected. That said only @username123, @eric_plant and @DJWYC14 can catch @our_frank with the Tuesday night game.
Congratualtions also to @ryan_w_kirkby who lands a personal best and is the biggest mover of the week.
All of the following improved their personal best this week:
@SmiroludyBlue (41)
@BlueBoy (17)
@Manboobs (11)
@ryan_w_kirby (30)
@NewburyWanderer (10)
@Alexo (35)
@bigred87 (30)
@railwaysteve (216!)
I would just like to note that my new personal best is so bad that it is more that all the other new personal bests added together.
Admin
The final column shows the number of predictions made - everyone will need 7 by the next home game against Crewe on Sat 16th October.
It is your 6th best predicition that shows in the table as that is the one that you need to beat next game to improve your overall score.
@TheAndyGrahamFanClub and @LDF - if you carry on making predictions and you will enter the table with a score, almost certainly above myself.
@perfidious_albion now needs three predictions to register a score.
Anyone who doesn't make a prediction for five consecutive games won't appear on the leaderboard. I retain the info and if anyone returns to forecasting they will return to the leaderboard.
Next games
Rotherham away on Tues - the thread is already live.
Crewe home on Sat - the thread will possibily go live before Tues if I get a date for my heart op.
Rotherham Away - Yorkshire Adventure (Part 2)
The quality of the forecasting continues to improve week on week.
Congratulations to @our_frank who retains the lead, but is now being closely followed by @DJWYC14 who had a tremendous week this week, with a prediction just two away from the actual attendance.
@DJWYC14, @HCblue, @DevC, @ValleyWanderer and @NewburyWanderer all improved their personal bests this game.
The big upward movers were @HCblue, @BlueBoy, @ryan_w_kirkby and @JohnBoy.
Admin
The final column shows the number of predictions made - everyone will need 7 by the next home game against Crewe on Sat 16th October.
It is now your 7th best predicition that shows in the table as that is the one that you need to beat next game to improve your overall score.
There is a new column in the table - headed PB Match - this is the game in which everyone made their best prediction so far. I was surprised how varied it was. There is definitely a preponderance of recent games
@TheAndyGrahamFanClub and @LDF - if you carry on making predictions and you will enter the table with a score, almost certainly above myself.
Anyone who doesn't make a prediction for five consecutive games won't appear on the leaderboard. I retain the info and if anyone returns to forecasting they will return to the leaderboard.
Next games
Crewe home on Sat - the thread is live
Fleetwood away on Sat 30th - thread to go live this weekend
Ipswich at home on Tues 2nd Nov - thread to go live this weekend
It is moderately possible I will have my heart op sometime around the Fleetwood / Ipswich games in which case there may be a delay to publishing the outcomes. I know I am staying as an inpatient at Papworth until after the op now,
Crewe at Home - Match 14
Tight forecasting and tight on the pitch - Happy outcomes all round
Congratulations to @our_frank who leads the competition after the 3rd game in a row. The chasing group of four have now bunched up closely behind. This might remind you of another slightly more significant table but you can argue amongst yourselves about who should be steady and resolute Wycombe and who should be high energy and fretful Sunderland.
There were 12 personal best this week. Congratuations again to all those.
Admin
I have reorganised the table again this week, to leave out the previous position column. I am hoping that the upward and downward arrows do the job. If anyone would like to see it back - please shout.
Also I have put those who have predicted less than the required number of games in a separate table.
The required number is currently seven games. Once we get to twenty games the required number will be ten and it will stay at ten games until the competition ends at the end of the season.
The winner of competition, as for the last two years, will be the person with the lowest average of their best ten predictions at the end of the season. It doesn't matter how many predictions you make so long as their are at least ten, although the more you have the better you more you increase you chance of having ten good ones.
The occasionals and new entrants in the second table join the table above as soon as they reach enough predictions. At the moment there is no particular order. If there are further predictions next week I will order based on a two game average.
Next games
Fleetwood away on Sat 30th - thread to go live this weekend
Ipswich at home on Tues 2nd Nov - thread to go live this weekend
No attendance prediction thread for the cup game at Hartlepool
It is possible I will have my heart op sometime around the Fleetwood / Ipswich games in which case there may be a delay to publishing the outcomes. I know I am staying as an inpatient at Papworth until after the op now. The doctors and nurses tell me that the waiting times are increasing even for people who are inpatients waiting for surgery.
Lots of movers this week, @Erroll_Sims only needs a sub 200 and he’s around the Top 5.
Hoping you’re doing well @railwaysteve ?
Yep. Just had a look at that. I reckon @Erroll_Sims on top form with a single digit score could go top. I do quite enjoy the possibilities of this competition - sometime I might even get off the foot of the table.
I'm doing fine, thanks. Various bits of me keeping being tested but with no real concerns. Basically just waiting on a slot for a the heart valve op.
My form is worse than Man Utd, dropping like a stone ...
And I hit a stag deer with my car today, on the road between Marlow and Harleyford. Completely rearranged the look of the front end ...
Really need to get my forecasting mojo working then
That’s shaken things up @Erroll_Sims
Leaderboard after the Fleetwood Away Game
Top credit to @our_frank who continues at the top of the table and closely followed by @eric_plant and @username123 . Everybody's 8th best prediction comes into the Scoring Average after the Ipswich game - which is our 16th of the season.
Congratulations to all those who had their best prediction of the season so far in the Fleetwood game. A mention for @mooneyman and @shev big movers upwards in the middle of the table. The figures show that a single figure close prediction will drop an average by around 30 for those in that part of the table, so those players are probably a couple of good wins away from being in close contention.
At the bottom of the table I did achieve my own best of the season so far and drop my average by around 60. Don't expect me to make any further progress though because for the Ipswich game I thought they would only bring just over a thousand.
None of the occasional players predicted for Saturday so I have left out that table on this occasion.
If anyone has what they think is an anomalous movement or change in score - I believe I left it a game later than scheduled to add in the 7th best score. It is in there now and the 8th will count for the next leaderboard. Four games time and it will be the average of the best ten predictions which count which is then how it remains for the rest of the season.
Good luck to all with the Ipswich home prediction.
Thanks, @railwaysteve. Just an FYI, I think the final 2 columns are incorrect.
Thanks, @BlueBoy, I will look at that this morning.
Thanks again, @BlueBoy I found the mistake in the final column
Leaderboard after the Ipswich Home Game
We have a new leader at the top of the board - many congratulations to @eric_plant who returns to the top for the first time since the Gillingham home game. It stays very close within the top five places and I pay tribute to the professionalism that goes into making predictions at the top of the table.
@Commoner, @ForeverBlue and @peterparrotface all made strides up the table and @peterparrotface gets a special mention on here for being the earliest to predict an approaching 7000 crowd for the Ipswich game.
Also credit to @Wendoverman - only person to have an Ipswich home prediction as a personal best - great persistance and a score which keeps in touch with the bunch above.
Scoring Explanation (for the interested)
For the next game - whether it is Portsmouth or not - each persons best 8 predictions will be averaged to give an overall score.
Each current 8th best score shows in the 5th column, beating that in the next game means your overall score will improve. If you don't then your score remains the same. The 9th best predictions come into play after the following game means most scores will alter then.
To give an example of how that works - just suppose @Commoner who is currently in 8th place, records a prediction which is out from the actual attendance by just 11.
That 11 will replace his current 8th best of 291 in his score - which is 'the average of the best 8 predictions'.
@Commoner's score would reduce by 291 minus 11 all divided by 8 - (291-11)/8 = 25. @Commoner would then have a score of 83.71 - 25.00 = 58.71 and would move up from eighth to third place - so long as nobody else in between improved on their 8th best score.
The larger your 8th best score, the better your chance is of beating it and the more your overall score can reduce if you do.
@eric_plant, the current leader, has the lowest 8th best score and so has high standards to meet in order to improve the score.
Admin (for the interested)
@BlueBoy pointed out an error in the 'Number of Forecasts' column. This was due to an omission during a spreadsheet reconfiguration. Some of the entries were incorrect in this column last week and I believe all are now correct this week.
If you see a mistake or what you think is a mistake please point it out. I do some sense checks before posting but I certainly don't check everything. I would rather stuff was correct than not, and I am learning the capabilities and weaknesses of using Google Sheets as a spreadsheet as I go.
Occasionals and One Off Predictors
A couple recorded this game, welcome again to @Glenactico, so I have put in a representation of those predictions: