Playoffs?
Clearly a lot of gloom and doom with the current run of results but our fixtures until the end of season do give us some hope of reaching the playoffs. Last season Doncaster reached the playoffs with 73 points with Sunderland above them on 85. So realistically it’s likely to be somewhere in between. We have 50 points and have 7 at home and 8 away left. If we could maintain our Adams Park form and win a few away , we could still be in the hunt for the playoffs and then it’s anybody’s to go through.
Not sure we have enough in our team to go up automatically but let’s not give up hope of playoffs. Finishing 6th is the target.Now is not the time to lose the faith.
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In theory, you should need six points fewer this season, but I think we'll finish about 10th unless we buck up immediately - nothing we're doing is pointing towards a play-off finish. Obviously I hope I'm very wrong!
The next 4 games will tell us a lot I think. 9 pointsfrom those and it's game on
That would leave us needing 16 points from 11 games to reach 75 points for the season.
That seems eminently achievable to me, and who knows we might not actually need 75 points to get in the play offs (could also be more)
@chairboyscentral - good call, forgot about Bury. Even more reason to be optimistic. Clearly current form predicts mid table but even a small upturn in form, especially with Grimmer and Fred coming back hopefully soon, could achieve the impossible. Trying to stay positive with so much negativity about. At the start of the season we would not in our wildest dreams think we would be having this debate.
Sixth place side at the moment is averaging 1.74 points per game - equivalent to 76.5 points over 44 games. Obviously that number could go up a bit or down a bit between now and end of season but with quality of teams at that level (Rotherham, posh, Ipswich Coventry, Portsmouth, Sunderland, Oxford) perhaps if anything more likely to increase than fall.
Given our GD to get to 77 points we need 1.8 points per game compared to our season average so far of 1.72 - i.e. we need to do better in the final third of the season than we have so far.
getting to the playoffs will be extremely difficult but a massive achievement. Frankly a top ten finish would exceed any reasonable expectations at start of season. The management and players will give their all to make it happen. If it does that would be wonderful, if not so be it - they will have done their best. not sure we can ask anymore.
Of all the recent results the MK one was the most disappointing for me...and hopefully for the team and we will get some points in the next two home games. Very few teams in this league have been consistent which is why we are still where we are and I still work on the theory that games in hand are only an advantage if you win them all.
Very much so. We allowed ourself the poor run of games, on the basis that they were all top teams we have no right to compete with.
But a crap MK right at the bottom, not so much. Although some would still say big ground/bigger budget etc.
But it's time to try and escape this "Little Wycombe, delighted to be in league 1" business.
Classic @DevC . A pure joy. Looking forward to the Couhig's lobbying the league for 1.8 points per win.
Over the first third of the season we averaged 2 points per match, so 1.8 per match over the final third of the season is certainly achievable.
Bottom table teams often latterly hit promotion form to avoid the drop!
Does anyone happen to know if the l1 playoff semi final dates are know yet? I know the date for the final is confirmed but can’t find details for the semi finals...
I want to go uo.now if only to hear the sound of every other league one team's fans' jaws dropping en masse!
Obviously I want to 'up' not uoooo which is the disappointed cry of someone sitting behind @username at an away match. ??
They won't confirm them until the time, but I guess they'll be the week after the final day as usual.
I think it'd more likely be the sound of grinding and gnashing of teeth.
They don't allow shithousery in the Championship.
If we win 5, draw 5 and lose 5 of our remaining fixtures we would get 70 points.
For Sunderland to overtake us, they'd need 7 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats - which given their last 11 games they've won 5, drawn 4 and lost 2 it doesn't seem implausible.
They've got to play Ipswich (H), Oxford (A), Cov (A), Posh (H) and Rotherham (A) in those 16 games as well.
I'm feeling quite positive we will make the play-off's by the skin of our teeth!
Having seen how Ipswich didn't win for 2months, and how we've lost a tonneload quite packed together, and neither of us have dropped very far out of the mixer, I still have hopes of the playoffs.
It's a huge "if" on us keeping the home form together though.
If I had to bet on the champions, I'd go Peterborough. They have incredible attacking options, and are putting in absolutely animal form recently. All without Maddison!
Peterborough, Rotherham, Ipswich, Oxford, Portsmouth...and hopefully us as the top 6.
I fear Sunderland will usurp us.
Critical run of 3 home games out of 4 coming up.
After then we're utterly smothered in away games which could be telling, unless we re-discover the magic of other seasons.
We can drag them down to our level. They won't have to watch it every week.
Current betting to finish in top six
Rotherham 1-8
Coventry 3-10
Pompey 1-3
Ipswich 3-5
Oxford 4-6
Sunderland 4-6
Peterboro 7-10
Wycombe 6-5
Doncaster 3-1
fleetwood 3-1
we have a chance. which is an amazing achievement. personally i would have peterboro a bit better than that and ipswich maybe a little lower.
Heck, I missed Coventry, who you can't imagine will miss out.
We're going to need some magic here!
Indeed all we can do is keep scraping points and hope a couple of the others struggle. Starting with the game at MK.
Oh...
@Wendoverman said:
Yep, we can write off all these losses to "Big" teams, but we should win against the toilet, like MK.
(coughs).
It's all Grimmer's fault. We were golden until he got injured.
Forget the bookies odds, they are more or less meaningless.
I think the play offs are a very real possibility. We have a run of 4 games coming up that give us a real chance to get a good number of points on the board
Gas (h)
Fleetwood (h)
Bolton (a)
Tranmere (h)
Admittedly if our return from those games is not good then it's probably not going to happen, but if we come out of this little run with 9+ points then I think we're in pretty good shape
Look at those home games - every comparable league game we have played this season we have won
Just looked at all of our remaining fixtures and I think there is a real chance that we could arrive at the last game of the season - Accrington (a) - needing a win to secure a play off spot
Would you accept that now if offered?
Without a moments hesitation Eric.
On paper our last 5 games look winnable but over the years Southend, Gillingham, Wimbledon, Lincoln and Accrington all feel like "bogey" teams in the league...I haven't checked any stats to back this up!
On a more positive note, win three of those and three of our next 4 then we should have secured the play-offs!
By April Southend will either still have a slim chance of survival or will be already down and playing for pride...either way a dangerous creature for those struggling for the play-offs!
I think I agree, although I am by nature a bit of a dreamer. I'm finding myself looking at every one of those remaining fixtures and making a case for us winning.
Things may look slightly different in 3 weeks time, granted