Apologies everyone, BBC3CR have been suffering huge technical issues this afternoon. Hopefully all is ok for second half. Frustrating but not much I can do here.
"Systems" to beat the bookies rarely work Phil.
Over the last four completed years there have been 2208 matches of which 51 have finished 4-1 (roughly equally distributed home and away) -given you would need to back both home and away teams - that is 4416 bets to win 51 times - 1 time in 87. Occasionally you can get 100-1 on this score but typically around 40 for the better team 80 for the weaker team. Over time you will lose heavily.
I agree @DevC, you rarely see a poor bookie. However, I was not advocating this as a money spinning system.
My initial reaction to reading the article was, 'blimey, you wouldn't get very far doing that with Wycombe Wanderers!' A view formed by the binary nature of our beloved Chairboys results in recent times.
So, to see if my gut reaction was correct, I thought I'd check it out and blow and behold, WW have exactly the same number as 4-1 wins as Exeter since April 2008! The young chap in question reckons he is £600 better off for his efforts. A mere discussion point on a quiet day on planet football.
six is about average I think. 8 seasons say 55 games a season assuming you include cup games - 6 out of 440 , one in 73. Six against in same period I believe, plus Luton this season - 7 in all.
I hate to be a sceptic about stories in newspapers because as we all know every word written must be true, but over 450 games or so, he will have spent £4500. If he has had six wins and has made £600, he is claiming £5100 in returns. Two we know were 33-1 and 100-1, leaving the other four to have to average 92-1.
I like the story @bluntphil . Thanks for sharing. I know of one Wycombe fan trying a 4-2 win bet every game. It actually suprises how many times we've scored 4 goals in the past 5 years when my gut feeling would have been we aren't a time likely to do it at all.
@Right_in_the_Middle I too was pleasantly surprised by the amount of times WW have scored that many too, I think that's why I posted it in the first place.
Well lets see! Last season there were 14 league games out of 46 games that ended 1-0 - so 92 bets - requiring average odds of 11-2 to break even. Typical game looks like it averages 15-2, so if they were the average odds, I reckon you may have made £130 betting £20 per game. Nice but not overwhelming. Suspect if you had ony started after Jan 1st, it would have been better still.
Bet on either team to score 4 or more, you would have lost every time.
I bet on Pierre to score every week. have done for Three seasons first Goal Scorer. I put £2 using William Hill. His odds have never been less than 25/1 Often 33/1 or 40/1. While its only a bit of fun in the 2014/15 season this came good 4 times! Only once last season and nothing so far this. So if I say (as I cant actually remember) I got back £300 then I am up as he played just over 100 games in his Wycombe Career.
I used to make a bet when they had the bookies in the Woodlands. Always random and always high odds. Never really kept track on whether I won overall but to be honest how do you cost up the element of fun? Any ideas @DevC ?
Reassuring to hear "fun" and "right in the middle" in the same sentence. How you choose to get your kicks is up to you, as long as it doesn't adversely affect others.
I like a bet. I try to win, but mostly its to add interest in whatever event I am watching. For me, I like to think the bet through rather than it be random, to give myself the illusion if I win that I have outsmarted the "system". I am aware that over time, I will more than likely be down.
I reckon that is the Wycombe clip i have watched the most and it fills me with perverse joy every time i see it. Probably for the same reason as you, that Scotty is protesting his innocence (WTF??), JC is shrugging his shoulders (just another day at the office), Terry Evans is puzzled that its even a foul, the Donnie players are not bothered apart from one with a quick hug and best of all the co-comentator is trying to give mitigating circumstances saying the other guy was also in the wrong. Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant.
28.05.94 A day I will never forget. Played a tennis match that morning away at Bull Lane Tennis Club, Gerrards Cross. Snapped my anterior cruciate ligament during the match & had to concede. I should have gone direct to Wexham Park Hospital, but refused, no way was I missing Wemberly final! Literally hopped on the train @GX, packed with WWFC support, which was useful as there were so many on the train it stopped me from falling over. Hopped on one leg from the station to the stadium. Agony all match, mixed with ecstasy at witnessing a wonder goal from Jesus and the play off win. Then had to stay in the stadium for 45 minutes after the final whistle to avoid the crush. Very heady days indeed.
Wasn't that the second time in a week Jason had been sent off? If I remember correctly he was booed off by a few sections in the crowd. Followed I believe by a week away to 'reflect'. Didn't he then return with a great goal from a free kick against Coventry. Watching it back does make you thin wtf! Has football gone soft?
Comments
back...hurrah
Apologies everyone, BBC3CR have been suffering huge technical issues this afternoon. Hopefully all is ok for second half. Frustrating but not much I can do here.
Betting on your team to win 4-1 every week?! An interesting story this....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/37691110
If a Wycombe Wanderers fan had done this since April 2008, it would have also come in six times
AFC Wimbledon 1 - 4 Wycombe Wanderers 10/11/08
Wycombe Wanderers 4 - 1 Burton Albion 22/2/11
Bury 1 - 4 Wycombe Wanderers 17/3/12
Northampton 1 - 4 Wycombe Wanderers 21/12/13
Wycombe Wanderers 4 - 1 Southend 13/12/14
Cheltenham 1 - 4 Wycombe Wanderers 22/11/14
"Systems" to beat the bookies rarely work Phil.
Over the last four completed years there have been 2208 matches of which 51 have finished 4-1 (roughly equally distributed home and away) -given you would need to back both home and away teams - that is 4416 bets to win 51 times - 1 time in 87. Occasionally you can get 100-1 on this score but typically around 40 for the better team 80 for the weaker team. Over time you will lose heavily.
Not like you to drain the fun out of anything
I agree @DevC, you rarely see a poor bookie. However, I was not advocating this as a money spinning system.
My initial reaction to reading the article was, 'blimey, you wouldn't get very far doing that with Wycombe Wanderers!' A view formed by the binary nature of our beloved Chairboys results in recent times.
So, to see if my gut reaction was correct, I thought I'd check it out and blow and behold, WW have exactly the same number as 4-1 wins as Exeter since April 2008! The young chap in question reckons he is £600 better off for his efforts. A mere discussion point on a quiet day on planet football.
six is about average I think. 8 seasons say 55 games a season assuming you include cup games - 6 out of 440 , one in 73. Six against in same period I believe, plus Luton this season - 7 in all.
I hate to be a sceptic about stories in newspapers because as we all know every word written must be true, but over 450 games or so, he will have spent £4500. If he has had six wins and has made £600, he is claiming £5100 in returns. Two we know were 33-1 and 100-1, leaving the other four to have to average 92-1.
I think he has his sums wrong.
I like the story @bluntphil . Thanks for sharing. I know of one Wycombe fan trying a 4-2 win bet every game. It actually suprises how many times we've scored 4 goals in the past 5 years when my gut feeling would have been we aren't a time likely to do it at all.
I'm almost tempted to try it out myself.
I suspect backing Wycombe 1-0 either way in the lsstvtwelve months would have shown a profit but no doubt Dev will be able to verify!
@Right_in_the_Middle I too was pleasantly surprised by the amount of times WW have scored that many too, I think that's why I posted it in the first place.
I was never any good at maths.
Well lets see! Last season there were 14 league games out of 46 games that ended 1-0 - so 92 bets - requiring average odds of 11-2 to break even. Typical game looks like it averages 15-2, so if they were the average odds, I reckon you may have made £130 betting £20 per game. Nice but not overwhelming. Suspect if you had ony started after Jan 1st, it would have been better still.
Bet on either team to score 4 or more, you would have lost every time.
Aint hindsight a wonderful thing.
In response to Phil and Righty, remember the season before last WWFC were second top scorers in the division.
Rather interesting that 4 of the 6 were away
Since the start of the 14/15 season 15 of the 28 Lg2 4-1 results have been in favour of the away team.
I bet on Pierre to score every week. have done for Three seasons first Goal Scorer. I put £2 using William Hill. His odds have never been less than 25/1 Often 33/1 or 40/1. While its only a bit of fun in the 2014/15 season this came good 4 times! Only once last season and nothing so far this. So if I say (as I cant actually remember) I got back £300 then I am up as he played just over 100 games in his Wycombe Career.
I used to make a bet when they had the bookies in the Woodlands. Always random and always high odds. Never really kept track on whether I won overall but to be honest how do you cost up the element of fun? Any ideas @DevC ?
Reassuring to hear "fun" and "right in the middle" in the same sentence. How you choose to get your kicks is up to you, as long as it doesn't adversely affect others.
I like a bet. I try to win, but mostly its to add interest in whatever event I am watching. For me, I like to think the bet through rather than it be random, to give myself the illusion if I win that I have outsmarted the "system". I am aware that over time, I will more than likely be down.
I thought we were leaving the personal abuse to one side?
You started it with this thinly veiled dig didn't you...?
I believe that's known as a Lucky Pierre.
Well Pierre made me £50 for my usual £2 bet. It was 25/1 First goalscorer today.
Latest blog post is up... 'The fine margins of League Two'
https://philcatchpole.com/2017/02/27/the-fine-margins-of-league-two/
Fine margins? @bluntphil Too right. A win up North tonight to start a run and we'll
be back in the mix.
Game on. Full match commentary will be on @BBC3CR 98FM, 630/1161MW, 103.8FM & #Chairboys Player ⚽️
BLOG: A write up of last week's EFL Fans Forum which took place at Sky Sports HQ
https://philcatchpole.com/2017/03/27/efl-fans-forum/ …
I wrote an article for ShortList on THAT tackle from WW v Doncaster Rovers in 1993...
http://www.shortlist.com/entertainment/sport/martin-o-neill-wycombe-foul-jason-cousins-two-footed-keith-scott?utm_content=buffer4b0c0&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
I reckon that is the Wycombe clip i have watched the most and it fills me with perverse joy every time i see it. Probably for the same reason as you, that Scotty is protesting his innocence (WTF??), JC is shrugging his shoulders (just another day at the office), Terry Evans is puzzled that its even a foul, the Donnie players are not bothered apart from one with a quick hug and best of all the co-comentator is trying to give mitigating circumstances saying the other guy was also in the wrong. Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant.
28.05.94 A day I will never forget. Played a tennis match that morning away at Bull Lane Tennis Club, Gerrards Cross. Snapped my anterior cruciate ligament during the match & had to concede. I should have gone direct to Wexham Park Hospital, but refused, no way was I missing Wemberly final! Literally hopped on the train @GX, packed with WWFC support, which was useful as there were so many on the train it stopped me from falling over. Hopped on one leg from the station to the stadium. Agony all match, mixed with ecstasy at witnessing a wonder goal from Jesus and the play off win. Then had to stay in the stadium for 45 minutes after the final whistle to avoid the crush. Very heady days indeed.
Wasn't that the second time in a week Jason had been sent off? If I remember correctly he was booed off by a few sections in the crowd. Followed I believe by a week away to 'reflect'. Didn't he then return with a great goal from a free kick against Coventry. Watching it back does make you thin wtf! Has football gone soft?
Shouldn't laugh but can't believe it wasn't even a straight red. Nice article from Mr Blunt too