Election Prediction Contest
in Not Football
Quick game if anyone is interested.
predict number of seats for each of Lab, Con, Lib, Reform
scoring is difference either way multiplied by Labour 1 Con 3 Lib 6 Reform 10
example
electoral calculus currently have it Lab 470 Lib 71 Con 61 Reform 7
if actual is Lab 450 Con 100 Lib 68 Reform 11, their score would be 20+ 39*3 + 3*6+ 4*10=195
0
Comments
My prediction
Lab 452
Con 82
Lib 73
Reform 11
I'll go with:
Lab 461
Con 69
LD 72
Reform 13
Labour 515
Lib dem 95
Indies 5
SNP 15
Plaid 3
Sinn fein 9
DUP 5
Green 1
Count Binface 1
Speaker 1
Tories 0
Reform -1
Lab 410
Con 115
Lib 65
Ref 2
Lab 395
Conservative 157
Lib Dems 39
Reform 15
(I’ve lived through far too many of these to know what people say they’ll vote and how people actually vote is very different. And the narrative in our mainstream press will be ‘how badly Labour have done’ completely disregarding the size of the majority for them)
Lab 413
Tories 140
Lib Dems 66
Reform 1
I haven’t a clue. Bothered? Not me.
(Most of you will realise that someone else just grabbed my phone and posted that. I’d have said “Not I” of course.)
But I decided to post it anyway.
6 entrants so far.
Lab 474
Tories 80
Lib Dems 63
Reform 3
Lab 422
Con 154
Lib 31
Reform 2
Labour 435
Tories 105
Lib Dems 65
Reform 6
Labour 428
Conservative 118
Liberal Democrats 53
Reform 2
Lab 440
Lib 75
Con 80
Reform 3
Greens 2
Indies 5
Nationalist & NI 45
Lab 430
Cons 115
Lib Dem 59
Reform 1
Closing time is 2159 tomorrow
Labour 460
Cons 72
Lib 61
Ref 7
I've changed my mind.
Lab 390
Con 150
Lib 65
Ref 2
The Libdems getting 30 times more MPs than Reform with the same number of votes ought to be a scandal but it won't be.
To be fair @Kim_il_Swan if the Libs get around 12% of the vote, they should get 12% of the seats - 78 or so.
Much as I disagree with all that Reform stands for, I do agree that they should have representation roughly in proportion to their vote share. Perhaps PR will be one outcome of the Tory Civil War which hopefully fully kicks off at 10.01 this evening.
Not really when the right wing of the conservative party...ie Reform... Have been one of the biggest forces against PR for years.
I hope it comes in, but it's further evidence that they don't care about what's right, only what helps themselves.
The biggest forces against reform have been the labour and conservative parties.
The left side of the labour party, which is still a significant proportion of the membership if not the PLP are largely for it.
Time to change their minds, perhaps?
Possibly not ! Time will tell.
Labour 415
Torys 97
Lib dem 74
SNP 28
Plaid 6
Sinn fein 9
DUP 5
Green 5
Speaker 1
Reform 10
Can’t be bothered to do the overall math. Tories not to do as badly as predicted in these new fancy polls, they get 132.
Labour still large majority. Lib Dems disappointed. Farage gets in
I have left it late, hope it is within time ....
Labour 465
Tories 68
Lib Dem 68
Greens to return more than Reform who only win 2
BBC announce that the polls say......
Lab 410
Con 131
Lib 61
Ref 13
The exit poll has me almost bang on with the Tories. I knew it would be far more than many polls suggested. For all of you saying you don’t know anyone who will vote Tory, the people you know, like the ones I know, contain a fair few who won’t admit it to you, for a variety of reasons. And for that matter, we’ll all know a few who have voted Reform and won’t have said it out loud to us. Maybe not to anyone.
I was wrong about the Lib Dems though and Farage seems to have done well if the poll is reasonably accurate. It will be very interesting to see Reform’s vote share.
BBC has just said Steve Baker has a less than 1% chance of retaining his seat
And they have him in the studio. It’s rather cruel really.
Ha, ha, ha. I mean how terrible for Steve Baker