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Election Prediction Contest

Quick game if anyone is interested.

predict number of seats for each of Lab, Con, Lib, Reform

scoring is difference either way multiplied by Labour 1 Con 3 Lib 6 Reform 10


electoral calculus currently have it Lab 470 Lib 71 Con 61 Reform 7

if actual is Lab 450 Con 100 Lib 68 Reform 11, their score would be 20+ 39*3 + 3*6+ 4*10=195



  • My prediction

    Lab 452

    Con 82

    Lib 73

    Reform 11

  • I'll go with:

    Lab 461

    Con 69

    LD 72

    Reform 13

  • edited July 3

    Labour 515

    Lib dem 95

    Indies 5

    SNP 15

    Plaid 3

    Sinn fein 9

    DUP 5

    Green 1

    Count Binface 1

    Speaker 1

    Tories 0

    Reform -1

  • Lab 410

    Con 115

    Lib 65

    Ref 2

  • edited July 3

    Lab 395

    Conservative 157

    Lib Dems 39

    Reform 15

    (I’ve lived through far too many of these to know what people say they’ll vote and how people actually vote is very different. And the narrative in our mainstream press will be ‘how badly Labour have done’ completely disregarding the size of the majority for them)

  • Lab 413

    Tories 140

    Lib Dems 66

    Reform 1

  • I haven’t a clue. Bothered? Not me.

    (Most of you will realise that someone else just grabbed my phone and posted that. I’d have said “Not I” of course.)

    But I decided to post it anyway.

  • 6 entrants so far.

  • Lab 474

    Tories 80

    Lib Dems 63

    Reform 3

  • Lab 422

    Con 154

    Lib 31

    Reform 2

  • Labour 435

    Tories 105

    Lib Dems 65

    Reform 6

  • Labour 428

    Conservative 118

    Liberal Democrats 53

    Reform 2

  • Lab 440

    Lib 75

    Con 80

    Reform 3

    Greens 2

    Indies 5

    Nationalist & NI 45

  • Lab 430

    Cons 115

    Lib Dem 59

    Reform 1

  • Closing time is 2159 tomorrow

  • Labour 460

    Cons 72

    Lib 61

    Ref 7

  • I've changed my mind.

    Lab 390

    Con 150

    Lib 65

    Ref 2

    The Libdems getting 30 times more MPs than Reform with the same number of votes ought to be a scandal but it won't be.

  • To be fair @Kim_il_Swan if the Libs get around 12% of the vote, they should get 12% of the seats - 78 or so.

    Much as I disagree with all that Reform stands for, I do agree that they should have representation roughly in proportion to their vote share. Perhaps PR will be one outcome of the Tory Civil War which hopefully fully kicks off at 10.01 this evening.

  • edited July 4

    Not really when the right wing of the conservative Reform... Have been one of the biggest forces against PR for years.

    I hope it comes in, but it's further evidence that they don't care about what's right, only what helps themselves.

  • The biggest forces against reform have been the labour and conservative parties.

  • The left side of the labour party, which is still a significant proportion of the membership if not the PLP are largely for it.

  • Time to change their minds, perhaps?

    Possibly not ! Time will tell.

  • Labour 415

    Torys 97

    Lib dem 74

    SNP 28

    Plaid 6

    Sinn fein 9

    DUP 5

    Green 5

    Speaker 1

    Reform 10

  • Can’t be bothered to do the overall math. Tories not to do as badly as predicted in these new fancy polls, they get 132.

    Labour still large majority. Lib Dems disappointed. Farage gets in

  • I have left it late, hope it is within time ....

    Labour 465

    Tories 68

    Lib Dem 68

    Greens to return more than Reform who only win 2

  • BBC announce that the polls say......

    Lab 410

    Con 131

    Lib 61

    Ref 13

  • The exit poll has me almost bang on with the Tories. I knew it would be far more than many polls suggested. For all of you saying you don’t know anyone who will vote Tory, the people you know, like the ones I know, contain a fair few who won’t admit it to you, for a variety of reasons. And for that matter, we’ll all know a few who have voted Reform and won’t have said it out loud to us. Maybe not to anyone.

    I was wrong about the Lib Dems though and Farage seems to have done well if the poll is reasonably accurate. It will be very interesting to see Reform’s vote share.

  • BBC has just said Steve Baker has a less than 1% chance of retaining his seat

  • And they have him in the studio. It’s rather cruel really.

  • Ha, ha, ha. I mean how terrible for Steve Baker

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