Eight Games Left
With the first three emminently winnable against strugglers, we can hope (with the obvious Gasroom exceptions of course) to have a more than decent chance of making the play-offs, can't we? Given we had two very poor runs during the season, that would count as a successful season for me.
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I think we will get another 15 points, making 70 in total. That is based on 4 wins, 3 draws and one defeat. That would have made 7th spot last season. Orient finished 8th with 69 points.
I think the injury list will be key. Assuming Stewart is out for the season, it looks like Pierre will be out for a month, (pure guesswork based on it being the same injury so they will want to give it longer this time), Hayes I think has effectively had it for this season given his age, by the time he is back to match fitness the season will be decided, Kashket who knows but the recent rumours do not fill me with any hope. Bayo has been struggling towards the end of games recently & came off injured Saturday. The two remaining centre backs, Muller & WDH, to my memory, haven't kept a clean sheet? Almost sailing into a perfect storm, struggle to keep clean sheets and Weston & Saunders aside, the same attack force that couldn't score in a brothel the 2nd half of last season. It's a no from me, but I will still go and support the team regardless, as I have done during all the low times before, more in hope though!
what was the score as long ago as Saturday Ewan?
I'm not sure you can say it's the same attack force as the 2nd half of last season - Akinfenwa may have come off but he's recovered fast from injuries before. Southwell still has potential. PCH was injured this time last year and, as you say, there's also Weston and Saunders (and Freeman, remember him?!) There's also a more confident Wood.
I'm also not as worried as others with a Muller WDH backline - they've got complimentary skills. I think a key skill in League Two defending is simply not panicking - Muller, Jacobson and Harriman get good marks for that, and WDH adds a bit of power and height.
With Blackman in good form, Gape coming back, O'Nien injury free and Saunders showing more sharpness I'm optimistic about the last eight matches.
Muller seems to panic a little to me, or if he's not panicking just takes unnecessarily risky options.
I think we've got a decent shout of making the play-offs, but we probably won't. We've been badly hit by injuries.
I read Ewan's post and thought "mmmmm, my feelings exactly. Gotta be realistic."
Then I read Dev's comment and the realistically positive follow-up from aloysius. Can we do it? Yes we can.
It's doable for sure. If not, we have got a decent nucleus to build on for next season. Pierre, Thomo and Bean all likely to leave will free up some cash for wages.
Pluses Dayle had a couple of tasty strikes against the monkey and an assist so seems to be progressing nicely and WDH made the team of the week although honestly I think our season depends on Bayo staying match fit. Of course Max can adjust to the game as we play it here but it's totally up to him i remember Mark Rogers taking a couple of games to find his feet after playing in Canada but after that he developed into one of IMO best defenders we've had so it can be done
@aloysius , I was intrigued by your rating of WDH as having height and power, so checked his height (calm down @micra ).
I was gobsmacked to read it as 6ft 3 if that's accurate! He certainly doesn't seem an aerial dominator to me at all. And I wouldn't at all use the word power either.
Stewart and Pierre have power, WDH not at all. And for someone so tall, seems to have to do a lot of climbing on players to win it.
Maybe I just need more convincing, or maybe I still can't get the Maidenhead game out of my head where he looked absolutely dire against conference south fodder.
A play-off position is still a possibility, which I would love to see happen, but my current prediction is that we won't finish higher than ninth at best and will probably be about where we are now at the end of the season. Our poor goal difference almost gives an extra point to each of the teams around and above us.
The good news, however, is that my predictions usually turn out to be wrong.
It's all about momentum, and this little run of games against teams in dire form at the bottom really is critical.
We started well against Hartlepool, can we continue it?
Yes we can. But will we? We'll wait and see.
We'd be cowards not to give it a good go. (oops wrong thread)
Cowherds?
I've calmed down Malone - not least because Will is only 6'. Max is 6' 3"".
(Wikipedia is not to be trusted.)
It's the natural pessimist in me that was the driving force behind my viewpoint. Of course I would love it if we put the required run together to reach the "Holy Grail" of the play offs. I really don't see where the goals are going to come from. The Beast I believe, we have absolutely flogged to within an inch of his playing time for too many games. I can only see him gathering injuries if we keep playing him. I like what I see of Southwell but can he score enough at this level? Thompson has already demonstrated that he can't, so we will have to ask for goal contributions from midfield. Playing only 3 is not going to fill me with the confidence that can happen. Set pieces would be the next source, have we scored many from those so far? Not to my admittedly faltering memory, though Muller looks like he has potential to nick the odd one. GA may surprise us and bring Kashket back out of the blue and if he &/or Southwell can do Bayos' legwork there is hope!
@micra I'm sure WDH is taller than Muller.
@Chris I'd agree, having seen them play together. Quite close to clones.
I think WDH is taller as well though maybe he's just gangly, as @Malone suggests! I bet you he spends the summer in the gym and comes back twice the size, young players have a habit of bulking up fast over the summer here. As I've said previously, he's currently my fourth choice centre back but he doesn't worry me as much as Luke Oliver / Duberry / even Jombati when in that position.
8th on goal difference. Denied a win on the final day by the woodwork. I have the same confidence in this scenario that led me to put a tenner in automatic promotion on the day Saunders signed. My optimism is as fickle as April weather.
@HCblue The best way to tell them apart is the accent.
I too think we've a reasonable chance of making the play-offs.
Carlisle are falling like a stone and I think one of the teams not in the top 7 will go past them. I'd give us as much chance as anyone else given we don't exactly have the toughest run-in I've ever seen.
As stated above it's going to be a real fingers crossed job in terms of injuries but I'm sure other clubs are struggling too at this time of the season.
It's been a good season and it's great to still have something to play for. Who knows something truly memorable might still happen.
personally, I think to have third and fourth choice centre backs as promising as WDH and MM is something we should take heart from even if neither is the finished article yet (hence why their third and fourth choice at a League 2 club).
@Chris Somehow, I expect Muller to speak the better english.
@HCblue Max has a bit of a ze war is over accent so Will shades it on that measure. I would also be a small buyer of Will's height at 6ft on the spreads.
clichéd but 8 cup finals to play -tough but we could do it..
as mentioned above other team will have a loss of form, injuries and suspensions to contend with..
@Morris_Ital I have to disagree with you on this point.
"it's totally up to him i remember Mark Rogers taking a couple of games to find his feet after playing in Canada but after that he developed into one of IMO best defenders we've had so it can be done"
Rogers was an honest, committed player, but there's an awful long list of better defenders that have represented the Wanderers.
Of the eight matches remaining, only two are "six pointers" where Wycombe can directly affect their respective league position with a team that is in contention for a play-off spot: Cambridge and Mansfield.
If these matches are won it will still take at least two of the teams currently above Wycombe to drop four points more than Wycombe, and concede a lot more goals, over the last eight matches for Wycombe to scrape into seventh. On current form, only Carlisle look as though they may do that, but I expect it will only take one win to help them recover their form from earlier in the season.
Eight maybe nine teams scrapping over four places. Given league position, squad depth and injuries we are not favourites (bookies odds of 7-2 seems about fair) but have a chance.
Regardless of where we end up, another interesting season (in cup and league) in excess of fair expectations. Long may it continue.
@Uncle_T wow - I thought I was a pessimist! If we were to get 71 or 72 points it would be really unlucky for us not to make the play-offs. That does basically mean 5 wins and 2 draws out of the last 8 which is asking a lot (and given our injury list I don't think remotely achievable), but if we did I'd be a little disappointed not to be in the mix.
65 points is my prediction, which is probably not what I was hoping for at the end of January but I'd have bitten your hand off for at the end of October.
Whatever, this season has given us some great memories and the odd good game and relegation worries have been non-existent this calendar year, so for a club in our position I think we can reflect on it as a pretty good season.
More importantly, with the exception of the anticipated loss of Pierre, the squad we look like having at the start of August already looks as if it will have plenty of quality in there to build on and upwards
I was trying not to, but i can't contain my "realism" on how we'll do.
We tend to miss out on what we should be achieving, bungling the autos the other year, then bungling the play off final, and then bungling even getting into the play offs the year after.
So ahem, missing out on the play offs for me.
As for next year, we all like to be positive, but Blackman, Pierre and maybe Stewart gone, Saunders, Hayes and even Kashket injury reduced, erm, i'd not be too confident!