What I find strange is that Joe Low and Caleb Taylor seem like an excellent pairing, Harvie and Grimmer are improving as the games come and go...but we still struggle to keep a clean sheet. I know it's exciting but...
You see, I don't find that strange at all. I completely understand the swooning over Aaron Morley playing in that deep-lying role. He's great with his head up, looking to pick out a runner, but he's not anywhere near as good as Josh at screening the defence and snuffing out danger before it gets as far as the back line. So I think while we choose to play Aaron deep and Scowen in a souped-up Bloomfield role, we'll concede goals of the type we've been conceding (see Cobblers, Rovers). And that's probably a fair price to pay. And I'd guess that's probably true whichever centre-back pairing you choose.
Got to feel for Butcher and I hope we can keep him happy. He changed us last season when he joined. He was the part of the jigsaw that we were desperately missing. He went quietly about his work but was so effective. Never got the praise I feel he deserved. Now he is 4th choice behind a couple of loan players. I know how I'd feel if I was him but I really hope we can keep him happy. He was excellent vs Villa. Same applies to Bakinson.
Where do Leahy, Vokes and Hanlan stand now when they come back too?
I think Morley is arguably better on the ball than Scowen, which is pivotal when playing out from the back. Scowen can be box to box and do any job, and the 3rd player (more often than not Humphreys) gets a bit of a licence.
On the other hand, Scowen is brilliant at reading the game, anticipating danger and mopping it up. I agree with @our_frank that having him in front of the back four again would make us more solid in defence.
@thecatwwfc it is a long season and we are only just into October. There will be plenty of opportunity for everyone as the games pile up. We will soon be playing FAC, Johnstone’s Paint Trophy and League as the pitches get soggier and the day get shorter.
There will be quite a few established players who won’t get many games this season with the quality and depth of the squad. Three loanees , Taylor, Morley and Humphreys are Championship quality and will play lots of games.
The extraordinary thing about Josh Scowen is that, despite now having a more advanced role, he still seems to pop up almost as frequently as ever in our own box when we are under pressure. And, as @BlueBoy commented yesterday, he wins the ball in the air remarkably often for someone of his stature.
Didn’t we do well against that onslaught of corners late on in the game yesterday. Despite Low and Taylor only having played together a couple of times.
I just realized that through a quirk of scheduling (and Mansfield game getting postponed) we have only played 3 at home, and 5 away. That makes our start look all the better!
Watching Taylor at the weekend there were a few times he seemed to trip over himself as he ran backwards - those long legs of his will propel his career onwards but while he's still at the gangly phase he'll need to watch where he places them or he'll be targeted with through balls. As Ravizzoli doesn't love coming off his line to collect them I can see a few goals being conceded that way. Personally I'd still have Taf and Low as my first choice pairing, but Taylor has a heck of a lot of potential in him.
I'd not actually realised just how darn tall Taylor is until seeing him at the ground level of the Rovers terrace. Usually watch from the heights of the FA stand.
Surely Blooms will be on the Manager of the Month shortlist again for September? I think the Birmingham chap will win for somehow winning every game only spending 100 billion pounds, but Blooms should be top three.
I would be really interested to see if anyone has ever measured the "new manager bounce". Perhaps by taking the PPG over the course of a season and then comparing it to the first three games under the new boss.
They have. I don’t have the source of data but the analysis suggested it was a myth. Anecdotally I’m not sure I agree. Depends how long before the team reverts back to mean. You can create any sort of data you want if you shift the time series around in your favour
If we’re counting his spell as caretaker-manager, didn’t Gaz lose his first game 3-0 to Daggers? Or maybe 3-1? No new manager bounce then! I wonder if anybody has the time to see how the likes of Lambert, Gorman, Taylor and Sanchez done in their first games for the club. Maybe only certain clubs get the new manager bounce!
I’m pretty sure the first version of Soccernomics (Simon Kuper and Stefan Syzmanski) had a long bit about this. I think the conclusion was, as frequentstander said, it doesn’t exist. I think the only variable they found that had a significant effect was money spent! Been a while since I read it though so take that all with a pinch of salt.
I would have thought that most data would look at a ‘bounce’ following a new manager coming in to replace a newly sacked manager rather, than as is the case here, the manager is poached.
For a number of reasons there are likely to be a lot of differences between a manager coming in to replace one who has chose to leave (as MB did) and one who has been sacked (with presumably some recognition and likely guilt on the part of the players at the club who, rightly or wrongly, did contribute to that).
Yes, Two very different things, the so called bounce if it does exist in a limited way is probably due to players out of favour or those less than happy with a manager becoming re-energised and essentially trying something different from something that wasn't working.
Most managers who take over in better circumstances either aren't even in charge of their first game or heavily rely on coaching staff already in place or previously tried and tested methods, don't change a winning team mid season and don't fix what isn't broken.
Comments
What I find strange is that Joe Low and Caleb Taylor seem like an excellent pairing, Harvie and Grimmer are improving as the games come and go...but we still struggle to keep a clean sheet. I know it's exciting but...
I would hardly call it well earned @micra but I will try to enjoy it!
You see, I don't find that strange at all. I completely understand the swooning over Aaron Morley playing in that deep-lying role. He's great with his head up, looking to pick out a runner, but he's not anywhere near as good as Josh at screening the defence and snuffing out danger before it gets as far as the back line. So I think while we choose to play Aaron deep and Scowen in a souped-up Bloomfield role, we'll concede goals of the type we've been conceding (see Cobblers, Rovers). And that's probably a fair price to pay. And I'd guess that's probably true whichever centre-back pairing you choose.
You could be right @our_frank and to be fair, the winning and the drawing is quite exciting!
Good points. I think I would still prefer Josh at the 4 and Morley as more of an 8 type player, but it's a bit of a win-win right now.
Got to feel for Butcher and I hope we can keep him happy. He changed us last season when he joined. He was the part of the jigsaw that we were desperately missing. He went quietly about his work but was so effective. Never got the praise I feel he deserved. Now he is 4th choice behind a couple of loan players. I know how I'd feel if I was him but I really hope we can keep him happy. He was excellent vs Villa. Same applies to Bakinson.
Where do Leahy, Vokes and Hanlan stand now when they come back too?
I think Morley is arguably better on the ball than Scowen, which is pivotal when playing out from the back. Scowen can be box to box and do any job, and the 3rd player (more often than not Humphreys) gets a bit of a licence.
On the other hand, Scowen is brilliant at reading the game, anticipating danger and mopping it up. I agree with @our_frank that having him in front of the back four again would make us more solid in defence.
The answer is... we need two Scowens.
@thecatwwfc it is a long season and we are only just into October. There will be plenty of opportunity for everyone as the games pile up. We will soon be playing FAC, Johnstone’s Paint Trophy and League as the pitches get soggier and the day get shorter.
There will be quite a few established players who won’t get many games this season with the quality and depth of the squad. Three loanees , Taylor, Morley and Humphreys are Championship quality and will play lots of games.
The extraordinary thing about Josh Scowen is that, despite now having a more advanced role, he still seems to pop up almost as frequently as ever in our own box when we are under pressure. And, as @BlueBoy commented yesterday, he wins the ball in the air remarkably often for someone of his stature.
Didn’t we do well against that onslaught of corners late on in the game yesterday. Despite Low and Taylor only having played together a couple of times.
I just realized that through a quirk of scheduling (and Mansfield game getting postponed) we have only played 3 at home, and 5 away. That makes our start look all the better!
Having had to miss the Cambridge and Villa games - admittedly through my own holiday schedule - I feel like the season hasn't really started yet!
I'm the same !
Can't wait for Saturday, I was last able to watch a game in person on 24th August! Which feels like it was still pre-season.
Watching Taylor at the weekend there were a few times he seemed to trip over himself as he ran backwards - those long legs of his will propel his career onwards but while he's still at the gangly phase he'll need to watch where he places them or he'll be targeted with through balls. As Ravizzoli doesn't love coming off his line to collect them I can see a few goals being conceded that way. Personally I'd still have Taf and Low as my first choice pairing, but Taylor has a heck of a lot of potential in him.
I'd not actually realised just how darn tall Taylor is until seeing him at the ground level of the Rovers terrace. Usually watch from the heights of the FA stand.
Surely Blooms will be on the Manager of the Month shortlist again for September? I think the Birmingham chap will win for somehow winning every game only spending 100 billion pounds, but Blooms should be top three.
Here's hoping Crawley don't get a dose of "new manager bounce" on Saturday
I was just discussing this with a friend - I am hoping it does not apply as much because their manager was poached rather than sacked.
Not sure why but reminds me of their old manager Mr Evans, rumour has it he bounced near Wimbledon's stadium last week causing a load of damage.
I would be really interested to see if anyone has ever measured the "new manager bounce". Perhaps by taking the PPG over the course of a season and then comparing it to the first three games under the new boss.
...if only Rob Elliott had just been given a Manager of Month Award it would have been automatically cancelled out.
(Probably)
They have. I don’t have the source of data but the analysis suggested it was a myth. Anecdotally I’m not sure I agree. Depends how long before the team reverts back to mean. You can create any sort of data you want if you shift the time series around in your favour
Mike Williamson won his first game as Carlisle boss and lost the next two. Not sure what that proves.
Good point - and another variable is scheduling. A new boss could be lucky enough to be at home to a fellow struggler, or away to the league leaders.
If we’re counting his spell as caretaker-manager, didn’t Gaz lose his first game 3-0 to Daggers? Or maybe 3-1? No new manager bounce then! I wonder if anybody has the time to see how the likes of Lambert, Gorman, Taylor and Sanchez done in their first games for the club. Maybe only certain clubs get the new manager bounce!
I’m pretty sure the first version of Soccernomics (Simon Kuper and Stefan Syzmanski) had a long bit about this. I think the conclusion was, as frequentstander said, it doesn’t exist. I think the only variable they found that had a significant effect was money spent! Been a while since I read it though so take that all with a pinch of salt.
I would have thought that most data would look at a ‘bounce’ following a new manager coming in to replace a newly sacked manager rather, than as is the case here, the manager is poached.
For a number of reasons there are likely to be a lot of differences between a manager coming in to replace one who has chose to leave (as MB did) and one who has been sacked (with presumably some recognition and likely guilt on the part of the players at the club who, rightly or wrongly, did contribute to that).
Yes, Two very different things, the so called bounce if it does exist in a limited way is probably due to players out of favour or those less than happy with a manager becoming re-energised and essentially trying something different from something that wasn't working.
Most managers who take over in better circumstances either aren't even in charge of their first game or heavily rely on coaching staff already in place or previously tried and tested methods, don't change a winning team mid season and don't fix what isn't broken.