Skip to content

23 / 24 Season Attendance Prediction Competition

24

Comments

  • edited December 2023

    After Leyton Orient Away:

    The last game of 2023 gave the Leaderboard a shake.

    Many congratulations to @Onlooker who returns to the top after a gap of 6 games. It is a narrow edge over @Will_i_ams, but these two are clear of the chasing field. At @Onlooker also has all ten of their best ten predictions within one hundred. @Will_i_ams has eight under one hundred.

    Congratulations to @Forest_Blue and @Wendoverman who move up to 4th and 5th respectively.

    It is very small margins between @Wendoverman in 5th to @Shev in 8th.

    Congratulations to @MindlessDrugHoover on reaching the top ten.

    Many congratulations to @Glenactico, Forecaster of the Week for this match and again the only person to claim the match as a personal best prediction so far.

    Congratulations also to @williwycombe and @perfidious_albion who also both moved up 5 or more places.

    It is now 'goal difference fractions' between @williwycombe in 21st and @PJS in 25th.

    Good luck and happy predicting to everyone for next year and the second half of the season. Please don't forget the Bristol Rovers game.


  • @railwaysteve thank you for all your efforts in running this. Happy New Year to you & yours.

  • After the Turn of the Year Game - Bristol Rovers at Home:

    I can't think of a much better way to start the year. Still can't stop thinking about it. Even told a Ocado delivery driver about it this morning.

    Many congratulations to @Onlooker - staying top of the Leaderboard - extending the lead at the top of the Leaderboard (to roughly two points) and nailing Bristol Rovers (h) as a new personal best prediction.

    Congratulations to @Will_i_ams and @Commoner for holding onto their places on a very turbulent day.

    Congratulations to @Forest_Blue in 4th for reaching a sub 100 score and for holding onto the place.

    Congratulations to @robin for reaching 5th and for nailing Bristol Rovers (h) as a new personal best.

    @robin, @ryan_w_kirkby2 and @Wendoverman form a very tight group just outside the magic under 100 average zone. In order to expand that group by means of the Burton game @robin needs to be within 167 of the actual attendance, @ryan_w_kirkby2 within 201 and @Wendoverman within exactly 200. @Shev is also within reach and needs to be within 98.

    Many congratulations to @Glenactico, nailing Bristol Rovers (h) and Forecaster of the Week for the second match in a row, up 7 places this time so from 24th to 12th in two games. Please can our football team do something similar.

    Congratulations to others who now have Bristol Rovers (h) up in lights - @PJS, @Mandown and @Blue_since_1990 .

    Congratulations also to @williwycombe who was another Forecaster to move up five or more places and is now safely in the top part of the table.

    There really were a lot of good predictions this week. I myself have a new 9th best prediction from the game and dropped four places in the table. I know there are others with similar stories.

    A Happy New Year to all and please watch out for the Burton game attendance thread. T


  • First a correction for part of the Bristol Rovers Leaderboard:

    Please accept my apoloties for this.

    A sharp eyed Gasroomer spotted a mistake in the entry for @our_frank - who had a prediction of 5390 for the game - 72 away from the actual attendance of 5318. I recorded the prediction but made an unusual mistake with the spreadsheet manipulation. It was only @our_frank's prediction that was affected. Although it changes the postions of @peterparrotface and @MFH_Blue it does not affect the scores of those two forecasters.

    @our_frank's entry shows a revised **Score** of 225.10, the 10th best score changes from 464 to 447 the number of predictions changes from 16 to 17.

    The Burton Away Game update is nearly ready but I thought I ought to get this out first.

  • After the Burton Away Game:

    Quite the exciting game to watch and some drama on here too -

    Many congratulations to @Onlooker for holding onto top spot.

    Many congratulations to @Will_i_ams for knocking back @Onlooker's lead, it is now 'goal difference' rather than '2 points'.

    Congratulations to @Forest_Blue, up to 3rd place and about 4 points of the leading two.

    The bunch just outside the 100 average mark have all stayed there.

    Congratulations to @wwfcblue, @DevC and @MindlessDrugHoover who have all moved up to form a very tight bunch at the 125 average mark - there is only a single person between @DevC and @MindlessDrugHoover and @wwfcblue gains a place in top ten.

    Congratulations again to our Forecaster of the Week, whose single digit score resulted in the only leap of five or more places - up from 27th to 21st and predictably a new personal best score.

    There were lot of good scores in the lower part of the table. Congratulations to @perfidious_albion, @mooneyman and @MFH_Blue who all also recorded new personal best scores. @MFH_Blue recorded a personal best but didn't move up the Leaderboard because the entire group above scored well too. I know that my own score of 67 for the match was my 2nd best so far and still resulted in a move down the table.

    20th to 30th are now only separted by the rough equivalent of 3 points.

    Good predicting to all for the Lincoln home game.

  • We go again

  • edited January 8

    Will be very tough for anyone to catch the Top 2 even with 21 games to go.

  • thanks for taking the time, @railwaysteve. It's important in the relegation dogfight.

  • Yes, I probably need a 170 check out from here right now

  • After the regrettable Lincoln at home game:

    Many congratulations to @Onlooker for staying cool at the top. Congratulations to @Will_i_ams and @Forest_Blue for maintaining 2nd and 3rd places respectively.

    Many congratulations to Forecaster of the Week @Shev who moves up 4 places into 4th place, recorded a new personal best for this season and gained a sub 100 average for the season.

    Congratulations to @DevC who moves up into the top ten. @DevC and @Shev were the only forecasters in the current top ten on this Leaderboard to register a score within their best ten.

    Congratulations to @NewburyWanderer who had the third closest forecast of the match [score 15] and registered a personal best.

    Congratulations also to @LDF who had the second closest forecast of the match [score 10] and his own personal 2nd best prediction and moves off the foot of the table.



  • After the very regrettable Wigan away game:

    Again many congratulations to @Onlooker and @Will_i_ams for holding onto the top two spots without scoring. Many congratulations to @Shev who has narrowed the gap and with an ideal next match result could split the leading pair.

    Congratulations to @DevC who now has a sub - 100 average and a move three places up the table. Everyone down to @wwfcblue can achieve that milestone in a single game which goes to show how tight is the middle part of the table. For example @MindlessDrugHoover, @Wendoverman and @a40 are only separated by a total of just five people after 27 games.

    Congratulations to @MindlessDrugHoover who makes a reappearance in the top ten of the table.

    Congratulations to @our_frank who made the biggest move up the table this match, up from 28th to 23rd.

    Finally congratulations to @Alexo who has regained the spot in 35th - one off the bottom.

    Nobody has Wigan Away as their personal best performance - it is good to share something with the players.


    Fleetwood outcomes are on their way, hopefully today.

  • After the Fleetwood Home Game:

    Many congratulations to @Will_i_ams who regained the spot at the top of the table. I have looked back to see that @Onlooker and @Will_i_ams have occupied the top two spots in every table this season except two, both towards the beginning. At the moment @Shev in 3rd is just out of reach of the pair of them in a single game.

    @Will_i_ams reached two other milestones, ten best scores all under one hundred and a sub fifty best ten average.

    Congratulations to @Commoner who has taken back 4th place from @Forest_Blue, albeit by a fine margin.

    Many congratulations to Forecaster of the Week @a40 who recorded a personal best prediction for this game and moved up 5 places in the table to decisively join the top ten.

    Congratulations to @NewburyWanderer who has also joined the top ten with a leap of 5 places.

    Many congratulations to @our_frank who also made a 5 place leap, this one into the top part of the table. This was the second such leap in a row and I remember that just four games ago @our_frank was talking in terms of a relegation scrap.

    Many congratulations also to @Erroll_Sims who made a seven place leap this game, through a quite tightly contested part of the Leaderboard.

    I want to note that @DevC and @robin are separated by the very finest of margins - just one predicted person over the whole of their best ten games.

    Finally, to put right an omission on the Match Attendance Forecast thread - welcome to @Blueword who will need nine more predictions to make it onto this table. On the Match attendance Forecast Thread the total crowd forecast was somewhat too pessimistic to make it onto the top twenty table, but @Blueword does appear in 20th position in the top twenty table for forecasting the size of the Cod Army.

    Happy predicting to all.


  • Must set an alert on my phone tomorrow 😀 Superb work @Will_i_ams and thanks again @railwaysteve for running this and for supplying the excellent post mortems

  • After the 'Faith Restoring' Cheltenham Away Game:

    First of all congratulations to @LDF for again leaving the foot of the table.

    Many congratulations to @Will_i_ams for retaining the top spot on our Leaderboard.

    On a week when our goals were mostly on the real pitch and there were not many who scored on here - congratulations to @Onlooker, @Shev, @Commoner, @Forest_Blue and @a40 who retained 2nd to 6th places in that sequence.

    Congratulations also to @DevC who does also retain his spot - in 7th place.

    Many congratulations to Forecaster of the Week @DJWYC14 who closest prediction of the week [26] means up from 13th to a joint 7th with @DevC, the first tie on this Leaderboard. It was also a new personal best prediction for the season so far for @DJWYC14.

    It is also the very tightest portion of the Leaderboard that has ever happened as @robin in 9th is just a single predictied person point behind.

    As a quick aside I have given some thought into what I will do if there is a tie at the top of the table at the end of the season. The virtual trophy will obviously have to be shared, but when I present the Leaderboard I would put the person the the best 'best prediction' higher - so in this particular circumstance an individual piece of brilliance will count more than consistency - seems to fit best with football.

    Many congratulations to @BSE who landed the only other sub 100 score of the Cheltenham game [36] and also a new personal best - a prediction which meant a climb from 33rd to 27th. Much to my amazement this created a second tie on the same Leaderboard - for 27th place with @SmiroludyBlue.

    I want to express a hope that unusual and surprising things happening continues into the Peterborough game and beyond.

    For those of us who are concerned with how quickly we can move up the table there are the equivalent of two points gaps between @Wendoverman in 13th and @bookertease in 14th and also 'two points' between @Mandown in 18th and @PJS in 19th.

    Great swathes of the table are very tight - 40 predicted person points - (goal difference) covering @bookertease, @Glenactico, @wwfcblue, @Glenactico, @our_frank and @Mandown and just over 100 person predicted points (about one point at this stage of the season) covering from @PJS in 19th to @perfidious_albion in 25th.

    Finally a mention for @Blueword who has predicted for the second time in a row which is not unprecidented but is unusual for someone making a first prediction mid season. Cheltenham away [194] is now @Blueword's personal best prediction so far, and indeed the best prediction this season of anyone who has only predicted once or twice.

    Please look out for the Peterborough home prediction thread and happy forecasting.

  • After the 'Faith Enhancing' Peterborough Home Game:

    First many congratulations indeed and name up in lights for @Alexo who was Forecaster of the Week and recorded the first spot on prediction of the season. This very impressive feat has not resulted yet in a movement up the table - @LDF who was in 35th place also scored well. Peterborough United at home is a personal best now for @Alexo which cannot be bettered.

    Then many congratulations to @Will_i_ams for keeping hold of the top spot and congratulations to @Onlooker for maintaining second place. There is just a shade under '3 points' between the pair of you.

    Congratulations to @Commoner who takes 3rd place with a score of [37] for the Peterborough game. @Commoner is just a shade over '3 points' away from the leading pair.

    @a40 [100] and @NewburyWanderer [11] both had good scores in the Peterborough game and are well embedded in the chasing group. At this juncture '3 points' spans the whole distance between @Commoner in 3rd and @DevC in 8th with @robin in 9th very close behind. @NewburyWanderer also now has Peterborough (home) as a personal best prediction.

    a@Mandown [score P'boro game = 80] deserves congratulations as the only forecaster to move up the table by 5 or more places from this match, with a rise from 18th to 11th. @Mandown now leads the group who can reach a sub 100 score in a single game rather than being at the tail end of it.

    In the lower part of the table, there were a number of counting scores and there is now a tremendously large group with a score of 136 followed by a variety of decimal fractions. Indeed there is yet another tie in the middle now in 24th place on 136.4 between @BSE and @Erroll_Sims.

    There is not much more than 'one point' separately @SmiroludyBlue in 27th from @PJS in 19th so you could say that the entire group currently with a score of 136.xx - namely @perfidious_albion, @BSE, @Erroll_Sims, @thecatwwfc and @SmiroludyBlue are all only 5 or 6 points off the 'play off places'.

    Congratulations to @SmiroludyBlue and myself for joining Forecaster of the Week @Alexo and @NewburyWanderer in recording new personal best predictions.

    Congratulations to @LDF who continues his climb away from the foot of the table.

    Two things I checked out because they seemed counterintuitive - @Alexo not leaving the foot of the table despite a perfect prediction and @SmiroludyBlue not moving up the table despite a personal best prediction. Both checked out as true - partially at least because of good predictions by people around them on the Leaderboard.

    I hope to post the catch up for the Bolton game tomorrow (Friday).

  • After the Bolton Game:

    The big crowd meant few predictions that were close, so congratulations to the entire top ten for retaining their positions.

    Only three people actually moved positions although there were others with scoring predictions -

    Many congratulations to @wwfcblue - Forecaster of the Week - who with a match score of 78 managed to leap six places to just outside the top ten and only just missing out on a sub 100 overall score. I am sure it will come.

    Congratulations to @our_frank [166] - up two places.

    Congratulations to @LDF [238] who is now rapidly advancing on the top half of the table. Please can Wycombe be as @LDF as they can.

    Finally commiserations to @Alexo whose tidy score [221] - almost within 1% - was not quite enough to shift position.

    Please all don't forget to predict for the Oxford game - better still - go if you can - or persaude someone loud to go.

  • Thanks @railwaysteve. I so wish I had forgotten to predict the Oxford game. All that progress squandered.

  • After the Oxford Game:

    5000+ home support, good atmosphere, football that was alternatively fun to watch and occasionally nerve wracking - there was a lack of goals and the best of our action was up the other endbut still not bad for a game that isn't a derby.

    If you take the Peterborough home crowd as the baseline the Oxford game gave us a 27% increase in home support.

    On here, we mostly underestimated, so the changes in the Leaderboard are few but dramatic. Nobody was close enough to record a new personal best. In other words everyone has been better at predicting at least one other game.

    Many congratulations to @Will_i_ams for continuing to hold onto top spot and congratulations to @Onlooker for staying 2nd.

    Many congratulations to @NewburyWanderer whose Forecast of the Week [score 52] delivers 3rd place from 6th, despite a scoring prediction [98] by @Commoner who is now in the 4th slot. @NewburyWanderer is within reach of top spot in a single game and @Commoner is now within reach of 2nd.

    The drama further down the table was acheived by @wwfcblue [115] and @Glenactico [78]. Congratulations to both of them for joining the sub-100 club with 14 games to go. Congratulations also to @Glenactico for the biggest upwards leap of the match and to @wwfcblue for reaching the top ten.

    The lower part of the table remains unchanged with the tie continuing to exist in 24th place between @BSE and @Erroll_Sims and the group of 5 - @perfidious_albion to @SmiroludyBlue still only separated by a total of 7 predicted persons all with a score of 136.xx

    Happy predicting and good luck with the Stevenage game.

    All the very best to all who travel to Bradford before then - both team and supporters.


  • After the Stevenage Away Game:

    Not much fun on the pitch but a fair bit of fun on here - especially at the top and bottom of the table.

    Many congratulations to @Will_i_ams for holding onto top spot.

    Many congratulations also to @Onlooker - the Forecaster of the Week who scored 40 - and closed the gap between 1st and 2nd. Last week that gap was around 2 points, now it is down to a point.

    Many congratulations also to @NewburyWanderer, who with a new personal 9th best score of 100 shaved a fair bit off the lead of the top two and is around another point further back and with bigger discards in hand. It is the first time since the Blackpool away game - Game 7 that we have had two forecasters within reach of the leader. So drama at the top despite nobody in the top six changing places. @Commoner does remain within reach of 3rd in a single match.

    Congratulations to @wwfcblue who moves from 10th to 7th, co-incidentally with a new personal 7th best score of 115.

    Congratulations to @ryan_w_kirkby2 who new 10th best score of 191 was enough to move 14th to 12th and also into the sub-100 club.

    Congratulations to @Twizz who had the second best prediction of the match this week, personally a new 4th best and so an appearance in the top part of the table.

    Congratulations to @Alexo who had a very respectable score of 120 for the match and leaves behind the bottom spot on the Leaderboard.

    Good luck and happy predicting to all for the Cheltenham game. That thread should now be up.

  • After the Cheltenham Home game:

    Many congratulations to Forecaster of the Week @thecatwwfc who jumps nine places! All the way from the 136 cluster into the top half of the table. The only person to have Cheltenham (h) as a personal best prediction.

    Congratulations to @Wendoverman whose personal 10th best prediction is enough to move up 4 places to 12th and to a sub 100 best ten average.

    Congratulations @micra who also has a new 10th best prediction and it is enough to retake 30th position.

    There is one further strange occurrence - @williwycombe with a score of 266 for the Cheltenham home game equalled his previous 10th best prediction for the Fleetwood home game.

    Finally some consolation for the rest of us who were different degrees of miles out - nobody dropped more than one place on the Leaerboard.


    Good luck to all and better judgement to most of us for the Barnsley match.

  • Sorry to give you more work Steve (and ignore if you wish) but is this season the record number of sub100 averages?

  • @DevC - it wasn't too difficult so I have an answer:

    22 /23 Season there were 14 Forecasters sub 100 after Match 46 Portsmouth (a) [@BSE had exactly 100.00]

    21/22 Season there were 33 Forecasters sub 100 after Match 46 Burton (a) - and we went on to the playoffs

    20/ 21 Season was mostly behind closed doors

    19 /20 Season there were 10 Forecasters sub 100 after Match 34 - and at that point we had 1.71 ppg.

    18 /19 Season there were 23 Forecasters sub 100 at the end of the season

    We will be pushed to beat the 21 / 22 Season but it shaping up pretty well with a lot of Forecasters in the zone with scores just outside the 100 mark.

  • After the Barnsley home game:

    The top nine positions all remain unchanged.

    Congratulations are due to @Will_i_ams for maintaining the narrow lead at the top and to @NewburyWanderer [Score this week 100], who narrowed the gap again to the top two - so that now it is say just a point between the top three. It is close enough between second and third that if @Onlooker and @NewburyWanderer are equally close to the Reading game attendance then @NewburyWanderer will take second place simply because of a higher current tenth best score to discard.

    Congratulations to @DJWYC14 [120] for returning to the top ten by swopping 10th and 11th places with @robin. @DevC in 9th tops a very tight 85.xx / 86.xx zone - goal difference in play there.

    Many congratulations to @MindlessDrugHoover [9!] - Forecaster of the Week who joins the sub 100 club and is now also part of the 85.xx / 86.xx group led by @DevC. @MindlessDrugHoover's very credible score of nine for the match was the only one of ours to record a new personal best. That group is around is around 6 - 8 points behind the leading bunch - (that is to say two or three single digit scores would land them in or around the lead

    Many congratulations to @BSE [Score this week 76] who now tops the lower part of the table, after the biggest upwards leap of the week. @BSE who also tops the 119.xx zone, joining @Twizz in 21st and in Joint 22nd @Manboobs [Score of 70] and @perfidious_albion [131]. This 119.xx group are the closest group of four in the whole table only seperated by four predicted people althogether. Good luck to them while as they are teed up to join the sub 100 group.

    The 136.xx group has dispersed to an extent but does now contain a new current dead heat - @micra's score of 132 for the game gives him the exact same overall score as @SmiroludyBlue.


    Good luck to all predicting the Reading game.

  • After the Reading Away Game:

    Congratulations to the whole top part of the table for maintaining position. Many congratulations to @Will_i_ams who keeps top spot.

    Many congratulations to @Erroll_Sims - whose Forecast of the Week [Score of 39] took him all the way from the 136.xx group and 27th place up to 20th place and a overall score of 117.6. It was nearly enough to reach all the way to the top part of the table - @Erroll_Sims would have needed to be within 2 of the acutal attendance for that.

    There was another forecast which registered a scoring score - a mention for @Wendoverman who was closest with the home and away crowds for the Reading Away and still missed the total crowd by 162 - which was in fact a new personal 10th best score, replacing a score of 170 for the recent Cheltenham home game. A small but significant improvement in 'goal difference' which wasn't enough to move him up the table.

    Good to have a tidy prediction from @username123 - who only predicts from time to time - and whose score of 298 was fourth best of all those made for this match and second best of the five predictions so far this season.

    Good luck and happy predicting to all for the Wigan at home game.

  • edited March 17

    After the Wigan Home Game:

    Lots of change here - quite a few had close forecasts.

    Firstly many congratulations to @NewburyWanderer - @Will_i_ams has been 9 weeks at the top of the Leaderboard, since the Fleetwood (h) game and as we come into the home stretch @NewburyWanderer has taken a narrow lead. Congratulations also due for reaching a sub fifty overall score and all ten 'Best Ten Scores' at 100 or less.

    Congratulations to @Onlooker who narrowly retained 2nd spot, despite being overtaken by @NewburyWanderer. @Will_i_ams remains in close contact in third place.

    Congratulations to @Shev - now within 3 points of 3rd place, and 4 points of the top two.

    Many congratulations to @ryan_w_kirkby2 - Forecaster of the Week and the biggest mover of the week, not just because of the long drive for the match but also climbing from 14th to 9th. I make that just 6 points now off the lead.

    Three forecasters have a new personal best after this match - @ryan_w_kirkby2, @BSE and @mwite. @BSE and @Mandown both deserve congratulations for joining the sub 100 average club.

    Northanpton game update to follow shortly.

  • After the Northampton Game:

    A second series of changes within four days in real time and probably about 40 minutes on here!

    Many congratulations to @NewburyWanderer for retaining the lead.

    Many congratulations to @Will_i_ams for tightening the contest yet again and taking second place. Top three all within a point!

    Congratulations to @ryan_w_kirkby2 up from 9th to 5th this game, following the jump from 14th at the previous match.

    The top ten remain the top ten remain the same top ten, but almost everyone is in a different position.

    Congratulations to @DevC leads the bunch of those who now have Northampton Town (h) as a personal best prediction for the season. Congratulations on that account to @bookertease, myself, @SmiroludyBlue, @mooneyman and @MFH_Blue. Five of us! That is pretty good for this stage of the season.

    Congratulations to @micra who showed made the big leap up from 29th to 21st.

    Congratulations to @bookertease and @Manboobs who made it into the sub 100 club. There are about ten others, lead by @micra who are within one good game of achieving this and @Alexo, to take an example is just two excellent games away from the same feat.

    Next game not for a while - I'll put the Portsmouth away on Good Friday game thread up soon, but probably not predict on my own behalf for a while.


  • Thanks @railwaysteve you do a great job for us.

  • Oh lordy I've had a bad week, good job it's all for fun.

    (Throws his tea at the TV and kicks the cat)

  • After the Good Friday Portsmouth at Home Game:

    Most of us underestimated the home support at this game ...

    Very many congratulations to @Onlooker who regained top spot with the second closest prediction of the day [7] a personal best for the season.

    The top three are all still very close, a point or maybe a couple of points between them. It is easy for the order to change again in a single game.

    Very many congratulations also to Forecaster of the Week @MindlessDrugHoover who was the only other person to record a new personal best this match with a score of just [4], climbing six places from 14th to 8th.

    Congratulations to @Twizz who was the third closest this match [94] - kicking the cat last week was perhaps good practice. Result: new personal fifth best predictionof the season and up five places!

    Both @micra and @mooneyman recorded scores that reduced their averages but not enough to change their positions on the Leaderboard. Co-inicidentally both now have new 10th best predictions. @micra is closing in on a sub-100 average - any prediction in the last few games which misses by 239 or less and he is there.

    Still working on the Easter Monday match updates .....

  • We have 2 cats, I kicked them both. Turns out it was a good move as I'm only 70 away from the Blackpool crowd I believe!

    Thx again for running this @railwaysteve.

Sign In or Register to comment.