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23 / 24 Season Attendance Prediction Competition

The competition is basically the same as last season. At the end of the season the winner will be the person with the lowest score which will be the average of the best ten forecasts that they have made.

The lower your score the better - it means you have been closer to the actual attendances.

Scores this week are the average of the best two forecasts that each player has made for the four games up to this point.

The 'Best' column has the amount by which your closest prediction so far missed the actual attendance and the PB Match has the game when this happened.

The 'Second Best' column has the amount by which your second best prediction so far missed the actual attendance. This column will always contain the score which you number to improve in the next match to improve your overall score. It will change progressively over the next twenty games, after that point it will remain the 10th best.

This is one week when everyone can easily check the spreadsheet is working correctly - the total of best and second best divided by two should be your score!

The presentation will change a little as the games progress (better headings and colour!), but the basic format will stay the same.

After the Burton home game:

Many congratulations to @Onlooker - both counting predictions within 100 - fine work!

Those with only a single prediction are @floyd, @our_frank, @Bulman22 and @williwycombe - they will appear on the next Leaderboard with a prediction for the Bristol Rovers game.

The highest placed forecaster with just the two predictions so far is @A_Worboys.

Happy predicting to all for the Bristol Rovers game. As always all welcome to give it a go.


  • Great work @railwaysteve as always. Many thanks really enjoy this competition!

  • After the Bristol Rovers Game:

    There were lots of good scores on the first of our recent away wins on a Saturday. In particular by @micra who recorded the largest leap up the table in my memory.

    Congratulations to @Will_i_ams - top of an early Leaderboard is no mean feat, as is a sub fifty average score.

    Our away game prediction appears to be vastly better than our home game forecasts, with 27 of individuals best prediction being for an away game.

    I will leave those at the top to glory in their position until at least tomorrow, when I will be able to post the update from the crowd figures at Northampton. (I can't help thinking about how the majority of those there must have felt as they left the game.)

    Competition machanics:

    After Game 6 the Leaderboard will include 3 predicitions in the average which makes up the "Score" column for each player. In other words either your number in the 3rd best column or your score for the Northampton game, whichever is lower, will be included into the your 'best 3 average'.

    If you only have 2 predictions so far, then it will be Northampton game score.

    Only two forecasters have only a single prediction - @Bulman22 and @floyd

  • After the Northampton Game:

    Many congratulations to @Onlooker who is fulfilling the promise of last season's late form and regains the top of the table early this season.

    @Will_i_ams and @Shev stay in touch. @thecatwwfc and @Wendoverman join the leading handful.

    Two factors drive the changes this game. On the sixth game the number of games used to calculate the scoring average changed from two to three. That is the biggest effect - on the predictions from the Northampton game alone the only change in the top ten would have been @bookertease joining that elite group due to his good score in that game. Congratulations to all those who now have the Northampton game as a personal best prediction - @bookertease, @DevC, @MindlessDrugHoover, @our_frank and @LDF - all of whom did move up the table, mostly with major leaps.

    There is a mention for early consistency for @Glenactico in 6th - all three scores that make up the average of 143 are in the range 100 to 200 - which is not true of anybody else.

    At this stage anything can change quickly. With regard to this two Gasroomers deserve a special mention.

    @mwite is currently 9th with a comparatively hefty 3rd best prediction score of 369 [in the Exeter game]. A spot on prediction for the home game against Blackpool will mean replacing that 369 in the 3 game average by zero, which would reduce the 3 game average and so the running Score by a fortutious 123. @mwite has a current score of 187 - 123 less would be 64 and very possibly a place at or near the top of the table.

    @micra has dropped to 17th this week, due to another hefty 3rd best score of 514 [Orient home]. If. for the Blackpool game, he were to equal his current best game score of 6 [Bristol Rovers away] his would be reduced by 169ish to give him a sub 50 score and a likely place at the top or near the top of the Leaderboard.

    There are two ties in the Leaderboard this week. At 10th place @bookertease and myself have the same score and 15th place is shared by @Alexo and @robin.

    Game Mechanics:

    The average of the best three predicitions will still constitute your score after the Blackpool so the next set of changes may not be so dramatic.

    @williwycombe has two predictions and will re-enter the main Leaderboard with a prediction for the Blackpool game.

    @floyd [I trust all is ok] and @username123 [Likewise I hope all is ok] have one prediction each and could re-enter the Leaderboard with predictions for the next three games.

    Happy predicting.

  • After the fine Blackpool Game:

    This week is a really good illustration of the fun to be had at the beginning of the season. Forecaster of the Weel @Commoner is up from 28th to 8th with an uncommonly huge leap. Blackpool (h) now a personal best. @NewburyWanderer who shares Blackpool (h) as a personal best has made the leap from 27th to 14th. It is moves like this which give us all hope.

    @Shev joins the select bunch, which now has five, with sub 100 averages. There is a challenge there because at the moment all five stand to lose that status at the Charlton game, when everyone's 4th best score will count.

    @DevC and @DJWYC14 were the other two to make major impressions in the table. Although @Manboobs made modest progress. Careful students of the vagaries of this competition will note that this is some small reward for being very close to the actual home gate against Blackpool. If he had been as close with the members of the Citrus Community a much greater impression would have resulted.

    A gentle reminder to @our_frank and @username123 that they need to make a prediction for Charlton away in order not to slip down into the misty area below.

    Game Mechanics:

    4th best scores will count after the 8th set of predictions for the crowd at the Charlton away game. The lowest 4th score at the moment belongs to @Wendoverman in 5th place. If all predictions miss by miles then it will be very close for the lead at the top of the table.

    Margins will be fine for sure. At the moment the group between @mwite in 10th [Score 187] and @NewburyWanderer in 14th [Score 189] are only separated by a difference of a total of 6 actual attendees predicted over the 3 counting games so far. That whole group includes myself (as well as @bookertease and @A_Worboys ) and therefore I feel somewhat obliged to share the slightly privileged information that @railwaybeth and I already have our tickets for Charlton - our first match of the season.

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