I commute into London. Admittedly it is a tad quieter on public transport (although there is still coughing and sneezing) and around the streets but shops are still trading, market stalls are still selling food, no-one is yet feasting on the raddled corpses of long dead dogs, fighting to the death over a mouldy piece of pitta bread found in the gutter, or throwing themselves from high buildings. If the @aloysius Apocalaypse is upon us, it's far more sedate than I was expecting.
Happened to talk to the owner of a fellow L1 club last night. As we speculated on the possibility of the league being suspended, they said that it would be financially disastrous. We didn't discuss in detail but, if that's the case for them, I doubt our position is likely to be much different.
Position of a lot of clubs @HCblue a Wigan supporter just told me no matchday revenue would be disastrous for them too...posted big losses last season apparently. I'm sure the Premier League will rush to the rescue of their poorer brethren...
If the scientific experts are right that the virus will peak at the end of May there is no way possible the season could be completed. Better to void this season and start properly next season.
If that happened do Bury get reinstated? The winners of the National League (assuming that gets completed) couldn't replace them in League 1.
I am sure all those fighting for promotion and relegation will accept voiding the season with the great spirit and sense of sacrifice for the common good for which football fans are rightly noted. Although if @aloysius is right there will be no professional sport in existence anyway!
Think @aloysius has been watching 70s series Survivors. The pandemic in that started in China too. 99% death rate. Probably a more reliable guide to reality than the Daily Mail but wouldn't take it too seriously.
@mooneyman said:
If the scientific experts are right that the virus will peak at the end of May there is no way possible the season could be completed. Better to void this season and start properly next season.
If that happened do Bury get reinstated? The winners of the National League (assuming that gets completed) couldn't replace them in League 1.
This is the thing people are overlooking.
That the next three weeks won't in anyway rid the problem. It's the weeks after that where it'll likely escalate.
There has to be a cut off for completing this season without ruining next year.
What's worse..not completing a season, or having some much shorter season next year?
Clubs would be just as upset at the lack of money in that example too.
I do think there will be a significant impact to the economy and wider society as a result of the virus, over and above the deaths directly caused. The financial health of football clubs has not been strong since at least 2008, and that is mirrored across a lot of other sectors too - the lack of cash coming in is going to see a lot of businesses fail. Things are about to change.
I'm completely with @Glenactico on this. Of course this season can't just be voided, and why would it be? Whenever football restarts, carry on from where we are (short term extensions to player contracts put in place where necessary) and then go from there.
This doesn't address any immediate financial consequences for lower league clubs of course, but that is a separate issue.
We will have plenty of time to discuss what to do next -well and it’s a horrible thought possibly those of us still here. For the next few months we just need to get through what will be a difficult time.
@YorkExile said:
I'm completely with @Glenactico on this. Of course this season can't just be voided, and why would it be? Whenever football restarts, carry on from where we are (short term extensions to player contracts put in place where necessary) and then go from there.
This doesn't address any immediate financial consequences for lower league clubs of course, but that is a separate issue.
You make a good point if this is only a short-ish sort of blip.
But what if it goes on for months and months?
You surely can't stubbornly try and re-capture this last 1/4 season there has to be a proper cut off time, where you just have to accept it's over and move on. The idea of renewing short term doesn't make much sense in that context.
Then what would happen if a big chunk of next season is eaten up by this? Fewer games means a lot less money for a lot of clubs.
@Doob said:
Unless you’re over 60 and/or have underlying health problems the only things to worry about are what to do on Saturday afternoons and where to buy loo paper or pasta.
Simply untrue. This is dangerous propaganda. Please think before posting this drivel.
@Chris said:
You'd have to be pretty stupid to still think like that at this point.
But this basically seems to be Government policy. Let as many ‘non-risk group’ people catch the virus and gain immunity to prevent it spreading later on. (Herd Immunity).
Interesting debate on Channel 4 earlier where it was suggested that the ‘enthusiasm’ the government had for letting mass gathering sports events to continue was effectively to allow as many people to get the virus as possible.
The rest of the world appears to think we are mad but I have total faith that our esteemed Prime Minister knows exactly what he’s doing.
On the subject of football I think we can forget about this season. It will have to be written off. No relegation or promotion but I think normalised league tables to sort out bonuses etc. The real question will be whether money will be provided from the Premier League (unlikely to be willingly but maybe by tax threats) to support the loss of income that clubs like us will suffer.
This debate will obviously apply to virtually every leisure and entertainment business. I’m not quite buying into @aloysius’s bleak vision but when we do come out of this the landscape will look very different.
Part of me feels that the new generation will then use this opportunity to reshape the world to a better, kinder, more sustainable place.
You do know that by “total faith” I mean “none at all?”
Although a dark corner of my mind actually thinks that he does indeed know what he’s doing and that this involves reducing the financial cost of an ageing population.
What Johnson seems to be doing is following the medical advice even when politically safer not to.
I am not his greatest fan but that is exactly what I would want him to.
@DevC said:
What Johnson seems to be doing is following the medical advice even when politically safer not to.
I am not his greatest fan but that is exactly what I would want him to.
The medical advice that the rest of the world and the WHO disagree with?
I have no idea whether the medical experts advice is right. Nor has Johnson. Nor have the medical experts tbh.
But as they are experts they have a better chance of being right and hence minimising (but not eliminating) the number of deaths than those completely ignorant in this respect like me and I presume you.
I listened carefully to their explanation of what they were thinking. To a layman it seemed quite compelling.
@DevC said:
What Johnson seems to be doing is following the medical advice even when politically safer not to.
I am not his greatest fan but that is exactly what I would want him to.
What Johnson is doing is making it clear that in the balance between protecting economic activity as much as possible and risking killing a few thousand older people, the UK has decided to err on the side of protecting economic activity.
Comments
I commute into London. Admittedly it is a tad quieter on public transport (although there is still coughing and sneezing) and around the streets but shops are still trading, market stalls are still selling food, no-one is yet feasting on the raddled corpses of long dead dogs, fighting to the death over a mouldy piece of pitta bread found in the gutter, or throwing themselves from high buildings. If the @aloysius Apocalaypse is upon us, it's far more sedate than I was expecting.
Happened to talk to the owner of a fellow L1 club last night. As we speculated on the possibility of the league being suspended, they said that it would be financially disastrous. We didn't discuss in detail but, if that's the case for them, I doubt our position is likely to be much different.
Position of a lot of clubs @HCblue a Wigan supporter just told me no matchday revenue would be disastrous for them too...posted big losses last season apparently. I'm sure the Premier League will rush to the rescue of their poorer brethren...
If the scientific experts are right that the virus will peak at the end of May there is no way possible the season could be completed. Better to void this season and start properly next season.
If that happened do Bury get reinstated? The winners of the National League (assuming that gets completed) couldn't replace them in League 1.
No more than Villa or Bournemouth would if standings are taken.
I am sure all those fighting for promotion and relegation will accept voiding the season with the great spirit and sense of sacrifice for the common good for which football fans are rightly noted.
Although if @aloysius is right there will be no professional sport in existence anyway!
Think @aloysius has been watching 70s series Survivors. The pandemic in that started in China too. 99% death rate. Probably a more reliable guide to reality than the Daily Mail but wouldn't take it too seriously.
This is the thing people are overlooking.
That the next three weeks won't in anyway rid the problem. It's the weeks after that where it'll likely escalate.
There has to be a cut off for completing this season without ruining next year.
What's worse..not completing a season, or having some much shorter season next year?
Clubs would be just as upset at the lack of money in that example too.
I fear the season will ultimately be declared void and many clubs will go to the wall.
I do think there will be a significant impact to the economy and wider society as a result of the virus, over and above the deaths directly caused. The financial health of football clubs has not been strong since at least 2008, and that is mirrored across a lot of other sectors too - the lack of cash coming in is going to see a lot of businesses fail. Things are about to change.
Not completing this season is obviously worse.
I'm completely with @Glenactico on this. Of course this season can't just be voided, and why would it be? Whenever football restarts, carry on from where we are (short term extensions to player contracts put in place where necessary) and then go from there.
This doesn't address any immediate financial consequences for lower league clubs of course, but that is a separate issue.
I agree if it's at all possible to complete the league with the same squads, but it's not.
We will have plenty of time to discuss what to do next -well and it’s a horrible thought possibly those of us still here. For the next few months we just need to get through what will be a difficult time.
You make a good point if this is only a short-ish sort of blip.
But what if it goes on for months and months?
You surely can't stubbornly try and re-capture this last 1/4 season there has to be a proper cut off time, where you just have to accept it's over and move on. The idea of renewing short term doesn't make much sense in that context.
Then what would happen if a big chunk of next season is eaten up by this? Fewer games means a lot less money for a lot of clubs.
Simply untrue. This is dangerous propaganda. Please think before posting this drivel.
You'd have to be pretty stupid to still think like that at this point.
I'd hope that was @doob simply following the classic gasroom approach of attempting dry humour. But maybe getting it a little too dry.
But this basically seems to be Government policy. Let as many ‘non-risk group’ people catch the virus and gain immunity to prevent it spreading later on. (Herd Immunity).
Interesting debate on Channel 4 earlier where it was suggested that the ‘enthusiasm’ the government had for letting mass gathering sports events to continue was effectively to allow as many people to get the virus as possible.
The rest of the world appears to think we are mad but I have total faith that our esteemed Prime Minister knows exactly what he’s doing.
On the subject of football I think we can forget about this season. It will have to be written off. No relegation or promotion but I think normalised league tables to sort out bonuses etc. The real question will be whether money will be provided from the Premier League (unlikely to be willingly but maybe by tax threats) to support the loss of income that clubs like us will suffer.
This debate will obviously apply to virtually every leisure and entertainment business. I’m not quite buying into @aloysius’s bleak vision but when we do come out of this the landscape will look very different.
Part of me feels that the new generation will then use this opportunity to reshape the world to a better, kinder, more sustainable place.
You do know who the prime minister is don't you?
You do know that by “total faith” I mean “none at all?”
Although a dark corner of my mind actually thinks that he does indeed know what he’s doing and that this involves reducing the financial cost of an ageing population.
What Johnson seems to be doing is following the medical advice even when politically safer not to.
I am not his greatest fan but that is exactly what I would want him to.
Why are you so sure that Boris's scientific advisors are correct Dev when their advice conflicts with many other countries experts.
The medical advice that the rest of the world and the WHO disagree with?
It's not at all clear what the right approach is right now and ours seems at the very least defensible.
I have no idea whether the medical experts advice is right. Nor has Johnson. Nor have the medical experts tbh.
But as they are experts they have a better chance of being right and hence minimising (but not eliminating) the number of deaths than those completely ignorant in this respect like me and I presume you.
I listened carefully to their explanation of what they were thinking. To a layman it seemed quite compelling.
Johnson could have taken the step to postpone all sport, but didn't.
The clubs seem to have had to force the issue by making all their player infection / isoplations public a mere few hours later.
Unless it was pure coincidence the stories all came out a few hours after Johnson's non decision.
What Johnson is doing is making it clear that in the balance between protecting economic activity as much as possible and risking killing a few thousand older people, the UK has decided to err on the side of protecting economic activity.
He could have but the medical advice was not to. Easier politically to bow to the herd, more likely better for us all to follow the advice.
I understand the leagues have cancelled not for public safety but for integrity of league reasons as some clubs were struggling to put out teams.
That simply isn’t true Brownie.
I am no fan at all of Johnson but he is in my view doing the right thing following the advice of his MEDICAL experts.