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"Tour de Season" - Predictions Table

edited November 2018 in Football

I have been long promising this......

The idea is to combine the attendance prediction threads we have been creating each week into a season long event on this thread.

I hope the rules will be clear - Your closest ten attendance predictions count at the end of the season. It looks like there will be 49 chances to predict - 46 league names + Northampton and Norwich in the League Cup and the 1st round of the FA Cup this year. That is unless we reach the playoffs.

The best 10 predictions count and I have used the average of those best ten, so the smaller this average is the better you have been at predicting and the higher up the table you will be.

In any game if you make a closer prediction than your 10th best your average will improve and you may leap or inch up the table.

The presentation of this could improve - but here are the standings to date:

Position Name Average of Best 10 predictions 10th best
1 Shev 95.9 293
2 bookertease 111.3 210
3 Manboobs 118 243
4 OxfordBlue 159.2 558
5 onlooker 163.8 397
6 moooneyman 165.8 342
7 DevC 183.7 332
8 micra 196.3 299
9 railwaysteve 196.6 315
10 twizz 202.3 403
11 robin 217.1 372
12 NorsQuarters 225.6 422
13 DJWYC 235.2 496
14 Aok84 248.5 491
15 ForeverBlue 249.9 408
16 wendoverman 286.3 539
17 Thicketblue 298.4 670
18 YorkExile 298.9 557
19 BlueBoy 320.4 570
20 Glenatico 353.4 621
21 floyd 380.1 680
22 braywanderer 434.8 1444
23 ValleyWanderer 451.6 1843
24 Cecil 493.1 752
25 Ned_Ludd 733.5 2302

The final column gives how close you need to be to the actual attendance to improve your 'best ten' score.

The numbers will be small for the Accrington game so it is well worth giving that game a go. As an example if @braywanderer is within single digits of the correct attendance at Accrington - his average figure will go down by more than 140 and he will jump 5 places.

There are 27 games still to predict so that it is anyone's game - someone who has yet to make a prediction could end up top of the table.

I will later give an indication of how many more predictions a person has to make, to have ten. @ReadingMarginalista has made 9 already and @Wig_and_Pen has made 8.

All predictions must be made on the relevant match thread - else I will lose track.

Β«1

Comments

  • Thanks for this, @railwaysteve, I suspect a lot of work there.
    Actually although gate will be one of the smaller, I found Accy tough to guess. Could be credibly around 1000 or over 2000.

  • happy with 12th, just like the Wanderers

  • And just like that, I feel pressure.

  • Stay sound with the pressure @Shev - I think you are the equivalent of two and s half points clear.

    I hope it will stay fun. Every game brings a fresh challenge. Let's hope our Gareth and the lads work their magic at Accrington and we can look forward to a bumper home support for the visit of Barnsley on the 8th.

  • Cheers @railwaysteve - the time you spend putting this together is really appreciated!

  • Hear hear to that @Shev.

  • After the Accrington Away (a20) game here is updated table:

    Position Name Position change Average 10th Best
    1 Shev 0 77.5 177
    2 OxfordBlue 2 107.3 209
    3 Manboobs 0 109.8 198
    4 bookertease -2 111.3 210
    5 onlooker 0 128.8 287
    6 DevC 1 162.6 322
    7 moooneyman -1 165.8 342
    8 twizz 2 177 335
    9 micra -1 195.4 292
    10 railwaysteve -1 196.6 315
    11 NorsQuarters 1 203.1 384
    12 robin -1 206.5 341
    13 Aok84 1 216.7 438
    14 DJWYC -1 221.1 394
    15 ForeverBlue 0 239.5 401
    16 Thicketblue 1 249.9 629
    17 YorkExile 1 257.4 503
    18 wendoverman -2 261.4 502
    19 BlueBoy 0 278.7 559
    20 braywanderer 2 291.8 625
    21 ValleyWanderer 2 292.8 573
    22 floyd -1 317.2 612
    23 Glenatico -3 353.4 621
    24 Cecil 0 418.1 737
    25 Ned_Ludd 0 527 1815

    Just like the real table - some changes.

    @OxfordBlue moves up two places to 2nd with a close prediction.
    A lot of people improved their average, notably @Cecil and @braywanderer. I didn't - but I was compensated by ending up being Wycombe in 10th.

  • Good fun this. Thanks for putting it all together.

  • May the best gasroomer win, @OxfordBlue!

  • If @tewkesburychairboy enters the fray again there is a clear and present danger to both @Shev and @OxfordBlue i- one prediction which was one away from the actual crowd.

    Barnsley thread up soon with a small prize for the closest for that game.

  • edited December 2018

    The new season long prediction table after the much enjoyed home game against Barnsley.

    The position rests on the average of the best 10 predictions shown in the Average column

    Position Name Position change Average Improvement in Average Current 10th Best
    1 Shev 0 70.3 7.2 113
    2 Manboobs 1 92.4 17.4 188
    3 OxfordBlue -1 107.3 0 209
    4 bookertease 0 111.3 0 210
    5 onlooker 0 124.5 4.3 277
    6 moooneyman 1 131.6 34.2 335
    7 twizz 1 151 26 298
    8 DevC -2 162.6 0 322
    9 railwaysteve 1 183.9 12.7 297
    10 NorsQuarters 1 185.4 17.7 382
    11 micra -2 188.7 6.7 290
    12 Thicketblue 4 190.5 59.4 437
    13 DJWYC 1 196.2 24.9 389
    14 Aok84 -1 196.6 20.1 400
    15 robin -3 206.5 0 341
    16 ForeverBlue -1 211.7 27.8 384
    17 wendoverman 1 220.9 40.5 372
    18 BlueBoy 1 234.1 44.6 466
    19 braywanderer 1 240.3 51.5 543
    20 ValleyWanderer 1 248.4 44.4 512
    21 YorkExile -4 257.4 0 503
    22 Glenatico 1 291.3 62.1 605
    23 floyd -1 317.2 0 612
    24 Cecil 0 359.5 58.6 735
    25 Ned_Ludd 0 527 0 1815

    @Manboobs moves up into 2nd with his very close prediction and @mooneyman moves solidly into the playoff places with his absolute accuracy.
    @Thicketblue should be congratulated on how his accurate prediction has moved him up the table.
    Congratulations to @Glenactico whose spot on predicition knocks 20% off his average figure.

    The final column with the each persons 10th best prediction gives an idea of the mximum movement up the table as your average score can improve by up to a tenth of that figure.
    This means at the moment @Shev is the equivalent of about 4 points clear.

    There are others not far away from having made 10 predictions who will appear in the table soon.

    The Gillingham thread up soon - happy predicting for happy wanderers.

  • A week when we were caught out by the weather.

    Most of us didn't beat our tenth best prediction - with some very honourable exceptions. @DJWYC14 moves up 4 places into 9th - which obviously is well poised for a move into the playoffs later in the season.

    Here is the new table:

    Position Name Position change Average Improvement in Average Current 10th Best
    1 Shev 0 70.3 0 113
    2 Manboobs 0 92.4 0 188
    3 OxfordBlue 0 107.3 0 209
    4 bookertease 0 111.3 0 210
    5 onlooker 0 124.5 0 277
    6 moooneyman 0 129.3 2.3 312
    7 twizz 0 151 0 298
    8 DevC 0 162.6 0 322
    9 DJWYC 4 173.6 22.6 374
    10 railwaysteve -1 183.9 0 297
    11 NorsQuarters -1 185.4 0 382
    12 micra -1 188.7 0 290
    13 Thicketblue -1 190.5 0 437
    14 Aok84 0 196.6 0 400
    15 robin 0 206.5 0 341
    16 ForeverBlue 0 211.7 0 384
    17 wendoverman 0 220.9 0 372
    18 BlueBoy 0 234.1 0 466
    19 braywanderer 0 240.3 0 543
    20 ValleyWanderer 0 248.4 0 512
    21 YorkExile 0 257.4 0 503
    22 Glenatico 0 291.3 0 605
    23 floyd 0 298.2 19 593
    24 Cecil 0 314.5 45 653
    25 Ned_Ludd 0 416 111 880

    All are welcome to predict for the Wimbledon game.

    I thought @DevC had a good idea with a mini-league and I should be able to show how those who have predicted 3 or more games are doing - plus if I find time I will go back over the figures and give Blue Average a position in the table and we can all be collectively proud or otherwise.

  • A suprisingly large crowd meant that there was no change in positions on the leaderboard,
    A mention for @Ned_Ludd who continues to improve his average and tenth best score.

    The new table:

    Position Name Position change Average Improvement in Average Current 10th Best
    1 Shev 0 70.3 0 113
    2 Manboobs 0 92.4 0 188
    3 OxfordBlue 0 107.3 0 209
    4 bookertease 0 111.3 0 210
    5 onlooker 0 124.5 0 277
    6 moooneyman 0 129.3 0 312
    7 twizz 0 151 0 298
    8 DevC 0 162.6 0 322
    9 DJWYC 0 173.6 0 374
    10 railwaysteve 0 183.9 0 297
    11 NorsQuarters 0 185.4 0 382
    12 micra 0 188.7 0 290
    13 Thicketblue 0 190.5 0 437
    14 Aok84 0 196.6 0 400
    15 robin 0 206.5 0 341
    16 ForeverBlue 0 211.7 0 384
    17 wendoverman 0 220.9 0 372
    18 BlueBoy 0 234.1 0 466
    19 braywanderer 0 240.3 0 543
    20 ValleyWanderer 0 248.4 0 512
    21 YorkExile 0 257.4 0 503
    22 Glenatico 0 291.3 0 605
    23 floyd 0 298.2 0 593
    24 Cecil 0 314.5 0 653
    25 Ned_Ludd 0 407.1 8.9 791

    Boxing day prediction thread up soon, my guess is that there will be a lot of those 10th best predictions which can be improved upon if there is time for people to fit in a prediction in the festive period.

  • Can I just place on record that I am happy for us all to continue to be massively wrong like we have been the last two weeks.

  • edited December 2018

    @Shev has his wish partially granted and he is still the equivalent of 4 points clear. Nobody except @DevC was closer than 100, so not much movement at the top of the table - @DevC moves into the playoff places and @bookertease moves very close to @OxfordBlue in 3rd place.

    @ForeverBlue and @ValleyWanderer make significant moves up the table with winning forecasts. @micra also moves in the right direction and @Ned_Ludd must be mentioned for his successive improvements in his average, and the largest gain this week - 25th but now within touching distance of the rest of the field.

    Happy predicting.

    Position Name Position change Average Improvement in Average Current 10th Best
    1 Shev 0 70.3 0 113
    2 Manboobs 0 92.4 0 188
    3 OxfordBlue 0 107.3 0 209
    4 bookertease 0 107.7 3.6 206
    5 onlooker 0 124.5 0 277
    6 moooneyman 0 129.3 0 312
    7 DevC 1 135.5 27.1 292
    8 twizz -1 149.1 1.9 279
    9 DJWYC 0 173.6 0 374
    10 micra 2 177.6 11.1 275
    11 NorsQuarters 0 181.8 3.6 358
    12 railwaysteve -2 183.9 0 297
    13 ForeverBlue 3 190 21.7 312
    14 Thicketblue -1 190.5 0 437
    15 Aok84 -1 196.6 0 400
    16 robin -1 199.5 7 321
    17 ValleyWanderer 3 216.6 31.8 401
    18 wendoverman -1 220.9 0 372
    19 YorkExile 2 224 33.4 420
    20 BlueBoy -2 234 0.1 465
    21 braywanderer -2 240.3 0 543
    22 Glenatico 0 291.3 0 605
    23 floyd 0 298.2 0 593
    24 Cecil 0 314.5 0 653
    25 Ned_Ludd 0 356.2 50.9 712
  • Time on my hands this afternoon ......

    I have just worked out the average score for the best ten of our the averages of our forecasts for the season so far. It is 153.9: so Blue Average is just behind @Twizz in 9th place. The tenth best collective score is 284. Blue Average will appear in the table post Scunthorpe game.

    We were best collectively for three home games:
    Luton at home - 29
    Barnsley at home - 63
    Posh at home - 103

    For that glorious day at Sunderland we were only out by 113.

    We were collectively at our worst for Plymouth away - out by 1913 - when far more Plymouth fans turned up for the Tuesday night game than the club deserved - "You're only here for the Wycombe" and for Luton away in the Cup - out by 1659 - when Luton fans let themselves down by not turning up.

    All other games we were collectively within one thousand of the actual attendance.

    Happy predicting.

  • Making up ground 0.1 at a time...

  • Ok:
    So the football result was disappointing and maybe undeserved listening to the commentary, it was a good day for those who predicted the attendance.

    As promised Blue Average enters the table - at 6th - encouraging that five of us are better than we are collectively at forecasting the attendance and Blue Average now has a recorded score for every game I have run a prediction thread.

    Most of us improved our average - some more than others.

    At the top @Shev continues to be close to the target and also @Manboobs continues to slowly close him down - I think the gap is now the equivalent of 3.01 points.

    In the middle several forecasters move down a position due to the appearance of Blue Average.

    Congratulations to @Ned_Ludd who stays in 25th position moves off the bottom - I couldn't find a prediction from @floyd.

    There is a story to the appearance of @ReadingMarginalista - I had missed 3 of his most recent predictions when he had predicted on matchday but before the deadline of an hour before kick off. He enters the table for the first time, with fewer predictions than many of us and good scope to improve.
    I had missed two other predictions for a similar reason - one by @Thicketblue (Sunderland game) and one by @floyd (Wimbledon at home), these have also been added in.

    Take what enjoyment you can from this table - and file today's football result somewhere when you can.

    Up the Blues.

    Position Name Position change Average Improvement in Average Current 10th Best
    1 Shev 0 64.6 5.7 109
    2 Manboobs 0 81.3 11.1 161
    3 OxfordBlue 0 107.3 0 209
    4 bookertease 0 107.7 0 206
    5 onlooker 0 116.8 7.7 244
    6 Blue Average new entry 122 New entry 220
    7 moooneyman -1 124.8 4.5 267
    8 DevC -1 130.5 5 242
    9 twizz -1 137.3 11.8 226
    10 DJWYC -1 145.1 28.5 355
    11 NorsQuarters 0 147.1 34.7 346
    12 Thicketblue 2 149.6 40.9 235
    13 micra -3 164 13.6 243
    14 railwaysteve -2 170.6 13.3 240
    15 Aok84 0 172.2 24.4 302
    16 robin 0 175.9 23.6 304
    17 ForeverBlue -4 181.2 8.8 304
    18 wendoverman 0 192.6 28.3 348
    19 BlueBoy 1 203.4 30.6 425
    20 ValleyWanderer -3 216.6 0 401
    21 YorkExile -2 224 0 420
    22 braywanderer -1 240.3 0 543
    23 Glenatico -1 251.9 39.4 479
    24 Cecil 0 279 35.5 500
    25 Ned_Ludd 0 293.7 62.5 705
    26 floyd -3 298.2 0 593
    27 ReadingMarginalista new entry 371.1 new entry 980
  • Thanks @railwaysteve - this competition is so brilliant as there can be no resting on laurels. In theory, someone could have nine great predictions and one awful one holding them back, and then nail the correct crowd for the last game and win it all.

  • The updated table after the home game against Coventry:

    None of the top 4 improved their average, and @Shev is still the equivalent of 3.1 points clear of @Manboobs in 2nd.
    However, the impressive closest forecast of the day by @robin moved him up 4 places, he is one of a number who moves within striking distance of Blue Average, which entity did not see an improvement in its top ten scores.

    @mooneyman moves up two places and is now in reach of the top three.
    @ReadingMarginalista had the biggest improvement in average of the week and moves off the bottom of the table.

    Doncaster thread up soon, probably Friday. Happy predicting.

    Position Name Position change Average Improvement in Average Current 10th Best
    1 Shev 0 64.6 0 109
    2 Manboobs 0 81.3 0 161
    3 OxfordBlue 0 107.3 0 209
    4 bookertease 0 107.7 0 206
    5 moooneyman 2 115.8 9 257
    6 onlooker -1 116.8 0 244
    7 Blue Average -1 122 0 220
    8 DJWYC 2 126.7 18.4 313
    9 DevC -1 130.5 0 242
    10 twizz -1 137.3 0 226
    11 Thicketblue 1 139.4 10.2 228
    12 robin 4 146.1 29.8 304
    13 NorsQuarters -2 147.1 0 346
    14 micra -1 158 6 229
    15 railwaysteve -1 170.6 0 240
    16 Aok84 -1 172.2 0 302
    17 wendoverman 1 177.3 15.3 290
    18 ForeverBlue -1 181.2 0 304
    19 ValleyWanderer 1 196.5 20.1 374
    20 BlueBoy -1 203.4 0 425
    21 Glenatico 2 221.5 30.4 428
    22 YorkExile -1 224 0 420
    23 braywanderer -1 240.3 0 543
    24 Cecil 0 246.6 32.4 479
    25 Ned_Ludd 0 250.6 43.1 445
    26 ReadingMarginalista 1 288.2 82.9 788
    27 floyd -1 298.2 0 593
  • Don’t forget @Shev sees the games over breakfast!πŸ˜‰

  • @micra - I have been losing my appetite these past few games!

  • I know what you mean. First Christmas/New Year that I’ve not put on half a stone!

  • Wish I could say that, I think I've been comfort eating!

  • I’m with @micra. That explains it. Thought I was ill

  • My surge up the table is gathering pace!

  • edited January 13

    Here is the 'Tour de Season' table after the famous comeback victory at home to Doncaster..

    NewPosition Name Position change Average Improvement in Average Current 10th Best
    1 Shev 0 64.6 0 109
    2 Manboobs 0 69.4 11.9 129
    3 OxfordBlue 0 87.5 19.8 198
    4 Blue Average 3 103.8 18.2 200
    5 onlooker 1 104.8 12 203
    6 bookertease -2 107.7 0 206
    7 DJWYC 1 108.9 17.8 191
    8 moooneyman -3 115.8 0 257
    9 DevC 0 124.2 6.3 219
    10 twizz 0 137.3 0 226
    11 NorsQuarters 2 137.8 9.3 253
    12 Thicketblue -1 139.4 0 228
    13 micra 1 139.8 18.2 226
    14 robin -2 146.1 0 304
    15 Aok84 1 146.2 26 243
    16 railwaysteve -1 158.4 12.2 237
    17 ForeverBlue 1 165.6 15.6 241
    18 ValleyWanderer 1 175.9 20.6 300
    19 wendoverman -2 177.3 0 290
    20 BlueBoy 0 180.3 23.1 374
    21 Glenatico 0 183.6 37.9 413
    22 YorkExile 0 224 0 420
    23 Cecil 1 225.2 21.4 415
    24 Ned_Ludd 1 230.7 19.9 432
    25 braywanderer -2 240.3 0 543
    26 ReadingMarginalista 0 256 32.2 515
    27 floyd 0 298.2 0 593
    28 Wisdom_of_Harry new entry 646.2 New entry 2257

    Firstly congratulations to @Wisdom_Of_Harry for joining the table. Commiserations that you join at the tail. Do not be disheartened, you have several close forecasts already and your tenth best score is the one you need to beat to improve your average. For you any forecast closer than 100 will improve your average by more than 200.

    It is now tight at the top, hot shot and leader @Shev was only 239 out with his prediction for the Doncaster game, for most of us that means an improvement, but not for him. @Manboobs and @OxfordBlue were among the closest forecasters and have closed the gap. Both could possibly overtake @Shev at the top after the next game. No pressure.

    @Onlooker is now up to fifth and was unfortunate that we collectively, in the person of Blue Average had such a good week - Blue Average's score for the game was only bettered by @OxfordBlue and Blue Average now in fourth. I am now contemplating the prospect that Blue Average could finish top of the table.

    @micra stays as Wycombe, in a position to be respected, moving up one place with the team.

    Many of us improved our averages - my modest 'Ainsworth' ambition is to have mine for my best ten predictions less than 100 by the end of the season. Respect to all those who improved averages and especially those who moved up the table.

    Onto the Borstal Rovers game - I will put the thread up soon - please enjoy your football and your forecasting.

Β«1
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