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Not a jackpot' draw

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  • I think that's a typo. It should read "engaging with a solitary local club."

  • Did anyone else notice that AV have a home league game scheduled for Tuesday Jan 12th? They won't be too keen on playing the Cup game on Sunday, especially if it's just for the benefit of the BBC's afternoon program (i.e. not on live).

  • Hopefully Villa won't have any say over it. In any case, I can't see Villa putting many first teamers out as Premier survival and the drastic financial effect of relegation will be their priority.

  • May be wrong but I dont think the sunday afternoon eight game thing extends beyond round 2.

    There is a full premier league programme on the tues and weds. Somehow I think that some of the FA cup televised games will involve premier league teams.

  • Would it matter if AV didn't play first teamers. It surprises me to admit that I don't know or maybe actually can't remember the name of one single Aston Villa player or even who their manager is! I think it has a bit to do with the fact that the Premier League or even the Champions league doesn't interest me one little bit. Didn't upgrade to BT sport just to watch mostly Champions League games...watching foreign players on an English platform isn't my cup of tea. I would always rather watch a League 2 or conference game on the telly before a Premier League game.

  • Well yes it matters as presumably we have a slightly better chance of getting a result if playing the second string than the first. Realistically of course 9 times out of 10 even a premier league reserve team will beat a league 2 team. lets hope this is the tenth game.

  • @DevC said:
    There is a full premier league programme on the tues and weds. Somehow I think that some of the FA cup televised games will involve premier league teams.

    The 'significant' teams are scheduled for the Wednesday. The only exception is ManU, on the Tuesday and live on Sky. You may be right about the BBC programming not going beyond round 2 tho

  • @MBS Indeed; aside from Agbonlahor, who seems to have been around for ages, I would have to look up who else plays for Aston Villa at the moment.

    I unintentionally happened across the team sheet for Man U.'s starting line-up last night and was struck by the fact that I had no clue who more than half of the players listed were! That made me realise just how much my interest in football is focussed on League Two and below, where my knowledge of who plays for who, who's beaten who, etc. are greater. My son watches the MOTD repeat on Sunday mornings and I do see some of that, but few of the current premier players stick in the mind. When they do, it has more to do with other factors - Swansea's Gomis because of his prowling lion goal celebrations, for example - then their actual playing ability.

  • I don't think I would be able to tell if Villa played a first team against us from the names on the team sheet.
    Loving the statistics on our success chances. Would be interested to see more of those stats. What is the criteria for what is a first team and what is a second one? MOre than half the team. Any links?

  • Micah Richards and Gabby Agbonlahor are the only players I can name off the top of my head.

  • @Uncle_T I am lead to believe by my son, that the Gomis goal celebration is a Panther not a lion. Pedantry I know, apologies.

  • You would probably recognise Brad Guzan, Joleon Lescott, Scott Sinclair amongst others. Not the most glamourus Premier team these days but good players still.

    Good old Right trying to have a dig again. Ok statistics for the last five FA cup seasons of prem v league 2 - prem w8 d2 l1. Last three league cup prem w11 d4 l2. So not quite 9 times out of 10 but pretty close. But then again as you well know it was a figure of speech.

    Si tacisses,philosophus mansisses. (always knew school latin would come in useful one day).

  • In fact William Hill make Villa 4/6 to beat us at AP. So that's only 6 times out of ten.

  • Bit tricky to equate betting odds to statistics, especially when it's odds on. E.g. If Wycombe are 10/1 I'd equate that to mean if they played 10 times Wycombe would win just one. By the same logic, if Villa are 4/6 that would mean if they played the game 4 times, Villa would win 6 of them!

  • not quite, you need to add the numbers together. If a team is 10/1 then the expectation is that if the game were to be played 11 times then that team would win once

    And so 4/6 means that a team is expected to win 6 out of 10 times

  • Still not quite right. Bookmakers price to expect to make a profit of 10 to 20 per cent. So if it is priced at 10 to 1, expect it to win about 1 time in 13.

    If you bet £1 each time on 13 races, bookie will take in £13 in stake money, pay out £11 on the one winner, thus making a £2 profit.

  • LX1LX1
    edited December 2015

    Not just quite wrong @DevC but well wide of the mark! Any bookmaker that attempts to apply a 10 to 20 % margin on that price wouldn't last long. Plucking numbers from thin air again? I hope you have a good accountant.

  • I was looking at it from the point of view of the punter. If a team is priced 4/1 and you think they'd win more then 1 in 5 then it's a good price

  • Bookies prices are not indicative of what they believe will happen. They have to mitigate against potential losses. If someone puts a massive bet on Villa, that will move the price. They don't instantly become more likely to win

  • Sorry lx you are wrong. Standard markup is 10per cent often more.

    It's an easy calculation. Simply take all odds for the event. On each add the two numbers together (so if 10/1, you get 11) and then divide the second number by that total (1/11)
    Add the total for each possible outcome. The bit over 1 is the profit margin.

    So the odds for the Wycombe-villa game are AV 4/6, draw 5-2 wyc 16-5.
    AV 4+6=10, 6/10 = 0.6
    Draw 2+5=7 2/7 = 0.29
    WYC 5+16=21 5/21 = 0.24

    Total (0.6+0.29+0.24) = 1.13.
    profit margin 13%

    You can do the same for any match or hose race or any other event. retty much guarentee that the outcome from any bookie will be between 10 and 15% , sometimes 20%.

  • hoses dont race, horses do!

  • I think the two of you are talking about two different things on bookies profits but it's interesting listening in.

  • Dev, I don't think your calculations work for EVERY event. An example is a boxing match on saturday between Felix Verdejo and Jesenilson Santos where at Corals, Vedejo is 1/100 - Santos is 16/1 and the draw is 33/1. My maths isn't up to your high standards, but it would seem to me the profit is over 20%?

  • Thats the maths. Very one sided events like this get a bit skewed and think you have your calculations wrong as well. The maths on this one is
    Ved 100+1 = 101 100/101 = .99
    San 1+16 =17 1/17 = 0.06
    Draw 1+33 = 34 1/34 = 0.03
    Total 1.08
    profit 8%

  • LX1LX1
    edited December 2015

    No it is you who are wrong DevC. Take a look at this weekends Premier League matches and show me a bookmaker that is betting to over 110%.

    Back to the original point about the chances of Villa winning. Assuming Hills have spread their margin equally across all three selections, they consider the 'true' probability to be 55.66% (4.33% margin). Even less than 6 times out of ten and nowhere near your 9 times out of ten.

  • Well we were talking about the cup. Currently we and other games are priced at around 13% profit. Checking a couple of horse races - at 1449 Bet365 had a profit on the 2.50 at NCL at around 12% and the 3.00 pm at Warwick at around 21%. The SP for the 1410 at taunton (the only one I've checked) was 18%. I guess the unremarkable conclusion is that different markets have different profit margins.

    The history of the last five years of FA cup and three of league cup (the periods for which WIKI helpfully publishes the level each club was at the time) shows that the premiership team has won the match 68% of the time and the tie 86% of the time.

    Make of all that whatever you will. It was only supposed to be a figure of speech illustrating that any premier team will be expected to beat any league 2 team!

  • Hills are betting to 113% as they have gone out first with no mature market having formed yet. They reduce their margin once this happens.

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