Have been following the discourse surrounding the League One promotion chase over the last few days and noticed how few are confident about their chances, especially those of a Wycombe Wanderers persuasion. I thought it'd be interesting to see if it's a similar feeling amongst Gasroomers.
Sounds like your Sunday afternoon is more exciting than mine. I'll catch you in the Vere next time I see you. Not sure intelligence is gonna win if we're involved. Bring the coke.
We need to win these next two matches but it has been the lower table teams we struggle to get more than a draw out of . The Wrexham match is then up and depending on how that goes it will probably go some way to answer the question .That said , Stockport are also very much in the mix and our game in hand over them is against Huddersfield! (I believe) . We can't go there and bottle it for the first 30 mins like we did yesterday . I have been trying to tell myself constantly that we will finish 2nd . Maintaining that belief was not helped with what happened yesterday . If we want to mix it with the big boys we can't start matches like a rabbit caught in the headlights . Also I fear what we are going to look like with Simons out for three matches . If it Leahy coming back into midfield then I worry . Kone needs to be a starter now . We are toothless without him.
I don't want to rile up the pedants with "must win" talk, so I'll instead just say how Tuesday is an "important opportunity to get a win".
Though Burton have only lost 1 in 10 so won't be easy. But we need to put them away, as Wrexham face Huddersfield away, and have a really difficult next 5.
You feel we need a significiant lead over Wrexham after the next 5, as their games ease up, and we still will have Huddersfield (most likely delayed from the current date), Reading, Bolton and Orient aways, and Charlton and Stockport at home, we've plenty of tough games in there.
Short answer is that I haven’t got a clue. I have been watching football long enough to know that there are many unexpected results at this stage of the season and the picture can change in a couple of games. Do I think that we deserve to finish second? Absolutely. We have been in the top two for most of the season and despite dropping points recently we are still in there. I see no reason for pessimism.
Our defence looks imperious, and all teams will struggle to score more than one against us. We've conceded just 4 goals in the last 8 games, all of which were from outside the box
We have the league's top scorer, who is often unplayable
Despite the general sense of doom and gloom on here, we haven't actually played badly recently. We've had some inopportune red cards (Blackpool, Cambridge, Birmingham) which have probably cost 4-5 points, and we've struggled to break down low blocks (which every team does) at AP. We've also been without the aforementioned top scorer. But in many cases we've also been quite unfortunate too, facing inspired goalkeepers or lacking that bounce of the ball needed
The squad is the deepest I've ever seen, and can deal well with injuries. As evidence by our Danish problem, Rav on the bench despite having a very good season, Reach's excellent performance in place of Harvey yesterday, and Udoh's creditable performances with Kone out injured
The squad still has loads of character and spirit, as evidenced by the likes of Mansfield away and the impressive second half with 10 men yesterday. Experienced players like McCleary, Scowen and Bradley will ensure that drive remains
The form of our promotion rivals (Wrexham, Huddersfield, Stockport) has been patchy at best, just like ours. And our closest rivals (Wrexham) arguably have an even tougher run in, with 8/13 games away
I genuinely think its 60:40 that we get promoted automatically, and probably 1:3 if we end up in the playoffs (they're a lottery). So I give us a 70% chance of promotion right now
I could probably go through points 1-6 with reasons why I don't believe we'll finish second however I'll just respond to the last point with the current form of those teams in the promotion race. Extrapolated the table would finish as follows:
1 Birmingham City 110
2 Stockport County 86
3 Wycombe Wanderers 83
4 Wrexham 83
5 Charlton Athletic 83
6 Bolton Wanderers 81
7 Huddersfield Town 78
8 Reading 78
9 Barnsley 72
10 Leyton Orient 71
We do of course play Stockport County at Adams Park on the final day of the season.
Current form has no bearing on the remaining games. The pressures of aiming for promotion/playoffs or trying to avoid relegation leads to unexpected results.
Obviously I don’t think we’ll finish second this season.
But I have been pleasantly surprised on 10 occasions this season and delightedly surprised on 18 other occasions so I wouldn’t be adverse to be shocked if we did.
After the fight the team showed in yesterday's second half, I actually think we will do it. If Fred could start playing like he did in October/November it would make it a lot easier.
Tomorrow night will be another important chapter in the race for promotion. Birmingham visit Bolton, Charlton face Barnsley and Huddersfield are at home to Wrexham.
My concern for the run in is that although defensively we look really solid , offensively we look , apart from a fit Kone, pretty inept recently. We need to find our goal scoring boots soon otherwise I believe we end up in the playoffs.
Although I'd add that I don't feel any of the attacking plays are in really, really good form. Udoh has done Ok lately. Kone has had a brief spell out. GMac had done alright without really firing. Fred actually made some recent breaks on Sat but has otherwise been underwhelming. Sads still injured. Early in the season all our attackers seemed to have a run of really good form. We'll need a couple of them to find that form again in the season close and at the moment it's unclear whether that's likely to happen or not.
We also don't really know what Dodds will be like in this situation. Seems to have had a positive impact on defensive shape already, but is he the kind of guy that can get the team fired up for the big games? I expect Wrexham will come at us with a direct, niggly, physical approach in ten days time. We'll need to match them in that department, which requires a bit of fight and determination to go alongside the skill, strategy and shape.
Comments
Have been following the discourse surrounding the League One promotion chase over the last few days and noticed how few are confident about their chances, especially those of a Wycombe Wanderers persuasion. I thought it'd be interesting to see if it's a similar feeling amongst Gasroomers.
No, I don't believe we'll finish second. Do you?
Sounds like your Sunday afternoon is more exciting than mine. I'll catch you in the Vere next time I see you. Not sure intelligence is gonna win if we're involved. Bring the coke.
I think he's finished the coke this afternoon.
We need to win these next two matches but it has been the lower table teams we struggle to get more than a draw out of . The Wrexham match is then up and depending on how that goes it will probably go some way to answer the question .That said , Stockport are also very much in the mix and our game in hand over them is against Huddersfield! (I believe) . We can't go there and bottle it for the first 30 mins like we did yesterday . I have been trying to tell myself constantly that we will finish 2nd . Maintaining that belief was not helped with what happened yesterday . If we want to mix it with the big boys we can't start matches like a rabbit caught in the headlights . Also I fear what we are going to look like with Simons out for three matches . If it Leahy coming back into midfield then I worry . Kone needs to be a starter now . We are toothless without him.
I don't want to rile up the pedants with "must win" talk, so I'll instead just say how Tuesday is an "important opportunity to get a win".
Though Burton have only lost 1 in 10 so won't be easy. But we need to put them away, as Wrexham face Huddersfield away, and have a really difficult next 5.
You feel we need a significiant lead over Wrexham after the next 5, as their games ease up, and we still will have Huddersfield (most likely delayed from the current date), Reading, Bolton and Orient aways, and Charlton and Stockport at home, we've plenty of tough games in there.
Short answer is that I haven’t got a clue. I have been watching football long enough to know that there are many unexpected results at this stage of the season and the picture can change in a couple of games. Do I think that we deserve to finish second? Absolutely. We have been in the top two for most of the season and despite dropping points recently we are still in there. I see no reason for pessimism.
I think yes, for various reasons:
I genuinely think its 60:40 that we get promoted automatically, and probably 1:3 if we end up in the playoffs (they're a lottery). So I give us a 70% chance of promotion right now
Excellent post, no excessive optimism or pessimism just a well thought out mixture of facts and realism.
Hopefully the players are reading this, as who couldn't feel confident with all these factors.
Kone surely starts on Tuesday and we're back to full strength again.
I could probably go through points 1-6 with reasons why I don't believe we'll finish second however I'll just respond to the last point with the current form of those teams in the promotion race. Extrapolated the table would finish as follows:
1 Birmingham City 110
2 Stockport County 86
3 Wycombe Wanderers 83
4 Wrexham 83
5 Charlton Athletic 83
6 Bolton Wanderers 81
7 Huddersfield Town 78
8 Reading 78
9 Barnsley 72
10 Leyton Orient 71
We do of course play Stockport County at Adams Park on the final day of the season.
Current form has no bearing on the remaining games. The pressures of aiming for promotion/playoffs or trying to avoid relegation leads to unexpected results.
Of course we will.
That form table probably would have had Huddersfield top 2 after they beat us.
Or Orient before they just lost 3 in a row.
Will be interesting to revisit this at the end of the season to see if even one points total was accurate
Aye, will be very interesting.
I'm over 12 years old I don't drink coke lad.
Attention seeking at its worst
It won't. Its's embarrassing GCSE analysis
Do we have a bet @glasshalfempty ?
No way will Charlton get the same points as us.
Obviously I don’t think we’ll finish second this season.
But I have been pleasantly surprised on 10 occasions this season and delightedly surprised on 18 other occasions so I wouldn’t be adverse to be shocked if we did.
(But we won’t)
After the fight the team showed in yesterday's second half, I actually think we will do it. If Fred could start playing like he did in October/November it would make it a lot easier.
Tomorrow night will be another important chapter in the race for promotion. Birmingham visit Bolton, Charlton face Barnsley and Huddersfield are at home to Wrexham.
My concern for the run in is that although defensively we look really solid , offensively we look , apart from a fit Kone, pretty inept recently. We need to find our goal scoring boots soon otherwise I believe we end up in the playoffs.
I think that's a pretty solid assessment.
Although I'd add that I don't feel any of the attacking plays are in really, really good form. Udoh has done Ok lately. Kone has had a brief spell out. GMac had done alright without really firing. Fred actually made some recent breaks on Sat but has otherwise been underwhelming. Sads still injured. Early in the season all our attackers seemed to have a run of really good form. We'll need a couple of them to find that form again in the season close and at the moment it's unclear whether that's likely to happen or not.
We also don't really know what Dodds will be like in this situation. Seems to have had a positive impact on defensive shape already, but is he the kind of guy that can get the team fired up for the big games? I expect Wrexham will come at us with a direct, niggly, physical approach in ten days time. We'll need to match them in that department, which requires a bit of fight and determination to go alongside the skill, strategy and shape.