The State of Play...
14 games to go...
A slow Monday morning has led me towards soccerstats.com and some number crunching.
According to the "run in analysis" the H/A PPG of the teams we have left to play this season is higher than anyone else in the top 6, and the 4th highest in the league. This suggests that on paper, we have the hardest run-in of the lot. I think this comes as no surprise to anyone here.
Where it gets interesting though...
If we were to repeat the same results across our next 14 games that we achieved against the same teams earlier in the season (8 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses) we would finish on 90 points.
If Wrexham were to repeat the same results over their next 14 games that they achieved the last time around (8W, 5D, 1L) they would finish on (you guessed it) 90 points.
How's your nerve?
Comments
In fact, we'd finish on exactly the same record as Wrexham:
P 46, W26, D12, L8.
Leaning towards the play-offs. Can’t see any sign that we’ll be replicating our scintillating early season form. Although our rivals aren’t exactly pulling up trees either.
There seems to be an air of confusion around the club at the moment, which doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence.
I think where we are after the Wrexham game will be key. If we can get a few wins over the next few weeks feel like that momentum could see us through for the run in.
On paper at the minute we’ve got a tough end of season, and I’m especially wary looking at the final 4 game we have.
However, by the time we get to the Bolton, Charlton, Orient, Stockport games, depending on how things go for them the next couple of months, there is a chance any of those teams might not have a lot to play for (either already in or out of the playoffs etc).
I think the classic, taking one game at a time applies here!
I know we’re not playing the exciting football , as we were at the beginning of the season but defensively we look very solid , conceding few goals. This gives me a degree of confidence that we can still fight for automatic promotion. I know we have some tough games in the run in but I believe we’re better when teams play on the front foot as opposed to recent home games, when they’ve played very deep , compact and challenged us to break them down. We’ve struggled to do that. Keep the faith.
I think something needs to click in an attacking sense to make it over the auto line- as mentioned, defensively we look good and that might help in the nervous playoffs but getting back to free scoring I think is required now. I guess McCkeary, Fred, Udoh, Bez, etc might need to hit a purple patch or perhaps Lowry, Berry or Sadlier to come in and thrive?
The fact we have to play the teams around us gives us complete control over our destiny. This gives me hope. Let’s start with 3 points on Saturday to close the gap at the top.
Definitely, probably stretch that to the Rotherham away straight after.
I like that air of confusion, was out on a jog before and I was thinking about Wycombe, Birmingham away on Saturday and so on.
If you'd of said to anyone on here we'd be 2nd behind Birmingham after 32 games with 64 points, 3 ahead of the team in 3rd and 7 points ahead of 4th with a game in hand we'd all be over the moon.
Yet somehow it doesn't feel like that, for me anyway, I still haven't ordered tickets for Saturday yet and it was one of the first games I looked for when the fixtures come out. I've got to make a decision later in the week, go the match or take my girls team.
I couldn't get the game Saturday but watched it and It wasn't great. Reading the match day thread was even more depressing.
Reading matchday threads when we don't win is always depressing.
I was at the game on Saturday, and quite enjoyed it, apart from the lack of clinical finishing, which should have resulted in at least one goal.
But our defence now looks rock solid, and we are a difficult team to score against. Whichever front 3 are selected for the Birmingham game really need to be on it, and if they are we stand a real chance of grabbing all three points, which would be a massive statement.