Required points for promotion.
Here are the last three season's points tally needed for League One promotion.
Wycombe currently sits on 58 with 18 games to go, a possible 54 points to play for.
1st Place Automatic Promotion (Minimum points required in brackets)
97 (93), 101 (99), 92 (91)
2nd Place Automatic Promotion (Minimum points required in brackets)
92 (88), 98 (97), 90 (90)
6th Place Playoff (Minimum points required in brackets)
76 (75), 77 (77), 83 - Chairboys (81)
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Comments
10 more wins should do it, provided we get 2 or 3 draws from the remaining games
Wrexham have 4 away games on the trot in Feb (and their away form is not good).
Whereas we play Cambridge, Crawley and Bristol Rovers back to back.
Going to be a telling month.
It's in our hands, let's not forget clubs in or near the relegation zone are fighting for there lives and games can be just as hard as going to Birmingham.
It’s Leyton Orient that concern me they’ve won 8 of their last 10 games and drawn the other two. They’re quietly climbing the table and took the last playoff spot last night on 44 points, with a game in hand over us.
What have been the points for these positions since COVID? Surely we just need to aim for the average of those?
Fortunately we don’t play them for a few months.
We'll have won the league by Orient away (if Birmingham get a huge points deduction)
2023/2024
1) Portsmouth - 97
2) Derby - 92
6) Barnsley - 76
2022/2023
1) Plymouth - 101
2) Ipswich - 98
6) Peterborough - 77
2021/2022
1) Wigan - 92
2) Rotherham - 90
6) Wycombe - 83
2020/2021
1) Hull - 89
2) Peterborough - 87
6) Oxford - 74
So averages from those 4 seasons
1) 95 points (It's 94.75 so I've rounded up)
2) 92 points (91.75 so rounded up)
6) 78 points (77.5 rounded up)
I don't think as many will be needed for automatic promotion this season. Wrexham or Huddersfield would need to pull out some crazy form to hit 90 points, and both appear to be faltering. Bear in mind that Wrexham have played 16 at home and 12 away so far. Huddersfield have played 15 at home and 12 away themselves
Some strange skewing of home versus away for those 2. Assume they had at least 1 away each postponed or something?
Wrexham especially must feel yesterday was a huge blow. Superb record of 13 wins 2 draws from 15 homes, midtable Stevenage. To lose must have felt a real shocker.
One post on their forum was writing off top 2 already! Just 6 points off with 18 to go. Madness.
Perception is a big thing.
For us, we're only too aware that we have the top 4 to play still, haven't won a league game at home for months where it hasn't been a late winner and don't have a manager!
We're certainly not counting our chickens just yet.
Well structured and thank you. It would be interesting to add how the teams who finished in third position finished up. The whole thing makes me excited and nervous in one breath. 👍👍
Alternatively, we're by far the league's top scorers, we've scored in 18 consecutive away league games, we haven't lost a game by more than a goal since March last year, and we haven't lost to any team below 8th in the table. They are promising stats!
The way we're so far clear as top scorers when goals have been a bit of a struggle recently at home shows how incredible the output has been.
But game by game we go, whilst knowing we're in an absolutely fantastic position with some really massive games March on.
We can all relax. It's the Chinese Spring Festival and I've seen the future.....
Interestingly we have the same number of points after 28 games that Wolves had the season that they broke the record for the most points in League One (103)
45 points from 18 games to end the season would be quite something!
The six point gap is only important if we can hang onto it. Every game is vital now for everyone...even Birmingham could slip up. Nice to be worried about losing automatic promotion rather than relegation though!
Birmingham have still got to play us. Next time they slip up, if we take advantage, it could be a very important victory come the end of the season. Does anybody know when they play their 2 games in hand?
Surely not….. must wins (gasp)
As we all know with football, there will be twists and turns that will happen over this season. I see there being 3 major incidents that will make or break the season.
1) What happens between now and the end of the transfer window. All 3 teams (Birmingham, us & Wrexham) might be wanting to strengthen / have better depth in their squads ready for the next push & also how long our manager search will go on for.
2) How quickly those squads settle and "bed in". We could buy amazing players but if it takes a while for them to work together, results are going to struggle. Also how much of a distraction is the FA Cup for us and Birmingham?
3) The last 5 games. I think it's clear that the top 3 (potentially the top 5) might start pulling away and it's how the last few games go. Will teams be trying to manage their workload for the playoffs & extra fixtures
I think everyone will drop points or have a "wobble", the thing that will define a season is how long that period goes on for. It's exciting & nervous at the same time but that's what we live for...... right??
I would recommend Jack Grimmer’s interview on the website. He correctly points out that there are bound to be setbacks between now and the end of the season, the important thing is that we stick together and keep believing.
Agree with this. I still think it has been a very strong L1 top to bottom this season - I personally think the deepest ever - and this "anyone can beat anyone" element, rather than being top heavy, should mean a lower total needed.
I have this (silly little) dream where Wrexham fade away, Huddersfield don't make a serious dent in the 10 point gap and by mid April we're worrying about catching Birmingham rather than staying in second.
We are currently 14 points above 7th place with a vastly superior GD which means whoever occupies that position would have to win at least 5 games MORE than us just to draw level, ie if we win 5 they would have to win 10-an enormous task with 19 games to play. It would take an unprecedented collapse not to make the playoffs.
The Gasroom says no to unprecedented collapses.
I think Man City form, prior to their recent revival, might have just about qualified as unprecedented collapse.
(I had to edit that as I hadn't realised they had won so many games lately).
Though it is hard to see them winning it now, I suspect Man City will claw their way into second...a disastrous season.
Hopefully we've had our "bad" spell, the home game spell where we could barely see a win through.
And all plain sailing to the champioli land.
What do you mean it won't run that smoothly!
Based on the last few days results and the expectation that some of these teams might be upwardly mobile by April, our last 5 could be really tricky:
Stevenage (h)
Bolton (a)
Charlton (h)
Orient (a)
Stockport (h)
The two games before that are Gaz's Shrewsbury and Reading away.
Some of those 5 could drop off but they are all doing pretty well at the minute.