24 / 25 Season Attendance Prediction Competition
I have been working on a couple of tweaks and the competition doesn't really make much sense until after the first few games so we will start with how it stood after 4 games - Blackpool Away:
After the Blackpool Away Game:
First of all many congratulations to @DevC who took the early lead when the table showed the best two predictions of the first four games. His "Score" column shows an average of just 17 for his best two predictions for the four games up to this point - at Wrexham, home to Birmingham, home to Rotherham and at Blackpool,
Congratulations to @wwfcblue, @DJWYC14 and @93Chairboy whose best two predictions so far averaged to less than 50. Mentions for @NewburyWanderer, @ryan_w_kirkby2 and @Commoner whose early averages are less than one hundred - my own personal target is to finish the season with a best ten average of less than one hundred.
Congratulations to @robin who currently has the single best prediction of the season so far with a score of 8 for the Wrexham game. The Best column shows everyone's closest prediction so far and the PB Match column shows which Match that was in, as it did last season.
There is an innovation in the Score to Beat column - the darker the green colour the bigger number is that has to be beaten by the next prediction to improve the score in the light and dard blue score column.
The Movement column is blank because this is the first table of the Season.
The Top pos column will show the highest position reached by each forecaster [credit for the idea to @DevC]. At the moment is the same as the Position column, but I guess that will change.
The Forecasts column just shows the number of games played / forecasts made.
The Northampton Match data is already in the spreadsheet and hopefully that update will be published before the Villa game.
Anyone who spots an error or typo please let me know - I had typos in a couple of the Gasroom names. The earlier I know the easier it is to put right.
The "Score" for the 5th game will be the average of each person's best two predictions. That will change to average of best three with the 6th game, and average of the best four at the 8th game and so on until the 20th game when it will be the average of each forecasters best ten prediction and then it will stay as best ten predictions until the end of the season - just the same as last year.
Happy Predicting.
Comments
After Game 5 - Northampton (a):
Many congratulations to @DevC who retains the top spot.
Congratulations to @wwfcblue, @DJWYC14 and @93Chairboy who retain 2nd, 3rd and 4th spots respectively.
Lots of us were close this game and so there is a lot of movement in the table.....
Congratulations to @ryan_w_kirkby2 and @Commoner who take 5th and 6th spots respectively.
Many congratulations to @mooneyman in 7th who does now have the closest prediction of the season so far - missing by just 5.
@mooneyman; @robin; @perfidious_albion;@Will_i_ams and @Mandown all moved up the table by 5 or more places - congratulations to them. All of these fine forecasters, except @Will_i_ams now have Northampton (a) as their best prediction, as do @ryan_w_kirkby2, @Commoner; @a40; @mwite and @williwycombe. Congratulations all round.
Early days but forecasters are in fine fettle already.
The Cambridge game will change the score from being the average of each person's best two predictions to their best 3 predictions, so expect more changes. Current 3rd best scores now appear in the partially green column.
After the Cambridge Home Game - Match 6:
Lots of movement in the table this week - a few close predictions and quite a few fairly close predictions - plus each person's third best prediction counting for the first time this season.
So many congratulations to @DevC for retaining top of the table spot, and what looks to me like roughly a two point lead.
A shout out to @mooneyman who slips one place but retains the kudos of the closest predictions so far this season.
Congratulations to @DJWYC14 who moves from third up to second and to @robin who moves up 5 places to take third. Congratulations in @Shev who was the only other forecaster to move up five or more places this match.
Congratulations to @micra, @thecatwwfc and @Shev who now all have Cambridge (h) as a personal best prediction.
Special message for @our_frank - only two predictions so far this year meant your score dropped out of the spreadsheet. Any prediction for the Bristol Rovers game will put it back again. The thread for that should be up soon.
Special message for @username123 - the 1844 in dark green is what is pulling down your score. If you get within 900 of the Bristol Rovers attendance it will knock at least 300 off your score. The dark green in this case indicates a 'dark horse' with lots of scope to leap up the table.
Happy predicting to all.
After the Bristol Rovers Away Game - Match 7:
Many congratulations to @DevC who maintains a sizeable lead at the top of the table.
Many congratulations to @Commoner, who moves up from 6th to 2nd with a personal best prediction for the best game. Here is an interesting early season effect - as the Barnsley game will the the 8th of the season the score will be based, everyone's 4th best prediction will count after that game. @Commoner has a better current best 4th prrediction by almost exactly the correct amount to make a dead heat possible between the leading two.
Congratulations to @mooneyman for moving up to 5th place and for retaining the closest prediction so far for another week. Another strangeness that does occur more frequently early season is that @DJWYC14 in 3rd, @robin in 4th and @mooneyman in 5th are extremely close, each gap is only a single predicted person.
Congratulations to @bookertease; @MFH_Blue and @Glenactico who all moved up 5 or more places. For @Glenactico it was eleven places.
As welll as to @Commoner, congratulations to @Glenactico; @micra; @thecatwwfc; @silverfox: @our_frank: @Twizz and @Erroll_Sims who all have a newly minted personal best prediction badge for a memorial game away to Bristol Rovers.
Good luck to all with predicting the Barnsley away game for Tuesday night - either that or your current 4th best prediction will be added into the average for the next score on this thread, whichever is the closer
After the Barnsley Away Game - Match 8:
Apologies that this was not completed before the Crawley home game actually happened.
Now many congratulations to @Commoner who just takes the top spot from @DevC. All but five of us had scores of over 200 for this game. I had the 15th best prediction for this match and I had a score of over 500. Therefore for most of us the changes in the table were due to adding in an already existing 4th best score. This is what caused the change in the top two.
However congratulations are due to @bookertease and to Forecaster of the Week, @Forest_Blue - who had between them the two closest predictions of the week, both gained new personal best predictions and they climbed up 3rd and 4th places respectively. Both climbed 5 or more places up the table. @Forest_Blue now has the 2nd closest prediction of the season so far.
At this point the top four are really only seperated by goal difference. Roughly a point behind in 5th and 6th @93Chairboy and @mooneyman are themselves only seperated by a single predicted person, the closest margin possible without being tied.
Congratulations are due to @Shev whose score was just over 200 for this game and consequently he achieved a rise up the table of 5 places.
Congratulations also to @silverfox who achieved a new personal best with this match and moved up from 32nd to 28th.
Mentions for @Manboobs, @Glenactico, @PJS and @SmiroludyBlue who all had predictions in the top ten for the game, and moved up the table even though in the latter two cases their scores actually had small increases.
The outcomes from the Crawley game will be up as soon as possible, very likely tomorrow - it's @railwaybeth's birthday today!
Each person's score will still be made up of their best four predictions for that game. Early in the season and there were quite a few close scores so the table will continue to be volatile.
@username123 your entry is left in the table as you only need a single prediction to regain a score.
Thank you @railwaysteve
Happy Birthday @railwaybeth !
Indeed, Happy Birthday @railwaybeth
After the Crawley Home Game - Match 9:
Many congratulations to @Commoner for retaining top spot and to @DevC and @bookertease for retaining 2nd and 3rd places respectively.
Congratulations to @93Chairboy - up from 5th to 4th. Congratulations to @robin, furtherest mover of the week - up from 14th to 5th - due to a sub 100 score for the Crawley game and a big 4th best score to discard - 539 for the Rotherham home game. Only trouble it is that it is back now as the 5th best score and will count for the Peterborough game unless it can be tidied away again! Nobody else moved up more than 5 places.
However everyone in the top ten for the Crawley game - @Mandown; @mwite; @thecatwwfc (Joint Forecasters of the Week) and @93Chairboy; @williwycombe; @Onlooker; @SmiroludyBlue; @MindlessDrugHoover; @robin and @PJS who all had scores for that game roundabout a hundred or less - all moved up at least one place.
@mooneyman who was 11th in the Crawley game table with 139, did lose the one place, deserves a measure of congratulations for beating what was his 4th best game score - 154 for the Cambridge home game - and therefore improving his overall average. That quite tidy score of 154 now remains as a 5th best score and will work for him after the Peterborough game when 5th best scores count, unless of course it gets tidied away again. Congratulations again to @mooneyman who does have the closest prediction so far this season - just five away for the Northampton home gaem.
Congratulations to @James; @mwite; @Mandown; @SmiroludyBlue; @Onlooker; @williwycombe; @Twizz and myself who all now have Crawley (h) as a new personal best prediction for the season.
It has taken a little time to do the post for this week - there was a minor fault with the formula for producing each person's top position so far. I have checked the lot and revised the method and they should now be all correct and stay correct.
Good luck to all with the Peterborough game prediction. We will all be competing with "AI" in the form of ChatGPT - credit to @manchesterchairboy . My money is on the Gasroom!
Message for @username123 - I have kept your name in the main table as you have three predictions - you would need to predict the two or three of the next four games to have a score.
Message for @Will_i_ams - with 4 predictions, a forecast for the Peterborough game will retain a score.
Message for @James - good to see you predict again for the Crawley game, especially with a close prediction. I hope you carry on predicting, either occasionally or consistently.
After the excellent home game against Peterborough - Match 10:
It is a while ago now but people might remember that nobody was within one hundred for this game. However there was much more movement than I expected mainly due to the 5th best predictions counting for the first time this season.
The most noteworthy change was that the forecaster with the closest 5th best prediction reached the top of the table - many congratulations to @93Chairboy. Some consistent predicting has paid off. The four forecaster with the closest predictions for the Peterborough game all moved up the table - they were @ryan_w_kirkby2, @perfidious_albion, @LDF and @NewburyWanderer.
The top of the table is tight - I reckon that 2nd to 8th are all within reach of the top within a single game - you could say @ryan_w_kirkby2 in 8th is just 3 points adrift of the top.
Nobody has Peterborough (h) has a new personal best prediction and nobody moved up the table by five or more places.
At the foot of the tablen@Will_i_ams, @James and @username123 bring up the foot of the table because they are missing a couple of predictions or so to complete the five necessary currently for a score.
Some tables still to post, I should be able to do some catch up tomorrow.
After the game away to Burton Albion - Match 11:
Many congratulations to @DevC who retakes the top spot with a Burton game score of 63, the fourth best of that game is his 3rd best of the season so far.
The other three forecasters within one hundred - @Twizz, @our_frank and @BSE all moved up in the table. Congratulations to all three of them and a mention again for @Twizz whose score of six is now the 2nd best of the whole season so far.
The next four closest - those with scores in the 100 to 200 range - @LDF, myself, @micra and @Glenactico also all moved at least one place in the table. Congratulations to @Glenactico who was the only forecaster to climb 5 or more places [14th to 8th] by successfully discarding a previous 5th best score of 418 and replacing it with 163 for the Burton game.
Myself, @our_frank and @BSE now proudly have Burton Albion (a) as their personal best prediction .
Good luck and happy predicting to all for the game against the Orient.
After the home game against to Leyton Orient - Match 12:
Because most of us missed underestimated the actual attendance, most of the changes in the table are due to the 6th best prediction counting for the first time after the 12th game.
Many congratulations are due to @DevC for continuing to command top spot with only a marginal change in score with a 6th best score that was only a trifle worse than the 5th. Although @DevC had the second closest prediction of the Orient game [222] there were already at least six better scores he had predicted.
The same applied with @Commoner taking 2nd place, it was an already recorded 6th best score that did the work, rather than the quite tidy Orient game score of 303.
Similarly @Forest_Blue and @bookertease moved up to 3rd and 4th from 4th and 6th respectively.
Congratulations to @mooneyman - the best prediction of the season so far - missing by just 5 for the Northampton home game was never under threat at all this game due to far more Wycombe fans turning up than the vast majority of us expected.
The exception to this expectation was @Glenactico - Forecaster of the Week - who did predict the happy extra souls and did record a score that counted amongst the best six. Congratulations again on the 155 Orient score, now a 5th best personal score and the continued progress up the table from 8th to 6th.
@NewburyWanderer maintained 7th place.
@93Chairboy was dramatic faller this week - however the 396 '6th best score' that caused it is now a 'dark horse' advantage because of the dramatic effect it will have when is is discarded - all @93Chairboy's other 5 scores in this Leaderboard score are less than or close to 100. Indeed if his 396 '6th best score' is discarded next by a single digit score for the next game then top of the table beckons, depending of course on how fares everyone else in the top eight.
So, despite a reduction in the number of Forecasters iwth scores under one hundred, it is very tight at the top of the table.
Unsurprisingly nobody has Leyton Orient (a) as a new personal best prediction. Perhaps worth a mention that a Orient score is used and so appears twice elsewhere in the table - as the new 6th best score for myself and @our_frank.
After the Stockport Away SUrprise - Match 13:
Many congratulations indeed to @93Chairboy who returned from 8th place to the top spot - plus Forecaster of the Week and a new personal best so far this season.
@DevC and @Commoner kept their existing sub one hundred scores but each slipped one place.
Congratulations to @mooneyman who took 4th place by a very fine margin, there is just a two person gap to @Forest_Blue in 5th. The yellow highlighting in the 'Top Position' column indicates a new 'highest position reached this season so far'. @mooneyman still has the single best prediction in the season up to this point - missing by five for the Northampton at Adams Park match.
Congratulations go to @a40 and @PJS for making new personal best for the season predictions for this Stockport game.
Congratulations again to @PJS and also to @thecatwwfc and @our_frank whose continued improvement has brought them to their hightest positions in this table in this season to date.
Congratulations to @williwycombe whose score of 91 for the Stockport game resulted in a move five places up the table.
Looking forward 7th best scores count for the first time after the Wigan away game, so the darker the green in the 'Score to Beat' column the more likely you are to need a good prediction to maintain or improve your position.
Happy predicting for the Wigan game. Happy travelling for those that go. Good luck to the team.
After the Wigan Away Game - Match 14
Many congratulations to @93Chairboy for holding onto top spot and indeed opening up a bit of a lead. Can't be caught in a single match so it is currently a 3 point lead. It is only a 3 point lead - @DevC would be very close indeed with a perfect prediction next game.
Congratulations to @DevC, maintaining 2nd place and opening a bit of a gap to the chasing bunch - looks like about 2 points to me. Only @DevC and @93Chairboy have sub 100 scores at the moment.
Many congratulations to @mooneyman, still with the closest prediction of the season so far and taking 3rd place by a whisker from @Commoner to reach a highest position so far this season - hence the yellow highlighting in the 'Top position' column.
Congratulations to @micra the greatest mover of the week - up from 27th to 22nd and also reaching a high spot so far.
In the same vein congratulations to @PJS and @a40 who also reached their best placing so far this season.
Congratulations to @NewburyWanderer; @wwfcblue; @PJS; myself; @silverfox: @Alexo; @Erroll_Sims and indeed @ShitcagoWWFC, we all have Wigan Athletic (a) as a new personal best prediction for the season.
It was a good week for forecasts.
Thanks to @manchesterchairboy Chat gpt has now made 5 predictions and is closing in on the number required for a Score. That number increases by one every other game until we reach 10 at the 20th game. If @manchesterchairboy continues to ask it the hard question Chat gpt will be a full competitor on the Leaderboard after the 17th game - Exeter away on 3rd Dec if we have no further postponements.
Damn - back to last...at least I can only move one direction
After the Lincoln Away Game - Match 15:
Two forecasters deserve many congratulations this week - @93Chairboy for building up a lead at the top which made it impossible to be caught in one game and also to @DevC for so nearly managing to achieve the impossible. @DevC was forecaster of the week for this match, missing the attendance at the LNER Stadium by just 4 - his own personal best for the season and now the closest forecast of the season so far made by anybody. Goal difference - (actually a total of just 8 people over the best seven predictions) separates the top two at the moment. However @93Chairboy does need a good score in the Mansfield game to avoid the current 8th best score counting and being a drag on the position
Congratulations to @Commoner and @NewburyWanderer in 3rd and 4th who have both regained sub 100 averages. @NewburyWanderer was the only forecaster this week to reach a personal best position in the table for the season.
Congratulations to @Manboobs and @mwite who both made substantial moves up the Leaderboard.
Catch up for the home game against Mansfield will happen soon - I am spending far too much time glued to other parts of the Gasroom!
After the Mansfield Home Game - Match 16:
Mamy congratulations to @DevC who regains the position at the top of the Leaderboard and now has a clean sweep with the best top ten average and the best individual prediction.
Congratulations to @NewburyWanderer, the reward for second closest in the Mansfield game was up to second on the Leaderboard,
Congratulations to @Commoner for holding onto 3rd place. Commiserations to @93Chairboy who was undone by that 378 prediction for the Lincoln game returning to count as the 8th highest - there is every chance of being competitive at the summit with other seven best predictions being 15, 28, 51, 57, 58, 114, and 115.
This variability in the Leaderboard drops out anyway when we reach 20 games as the Score becomes the average of the ten best predictions and stays that way for the rest of the season.
Congratulations to @mwite [23rd to 18th], @micra [25th to 19th] and @silverfox [30th to 25th] for big leaps up the table - @silverfox achieved this with a new personal best prediction.
Congratulations to @silverfox. @micra , @MindlessDrugHoover and @NewburyWanderer who are all on the up - reaching their highest positions in this season's table to date.
Also congratulations to @ShitcagoWWFC for a personal best prediction so far this season, not yet appearing in the table because not yet reaching the required number of predictions which is currently 8. Chat gpt is currently on7 and will appear in the table post Exeter game, if @manchesterchairboy can persaude it to make a guess. Currently its score for the 7 games is runninng at about 1000.
Exeter thread up soon.
After the Exeter Away Game - Match 17:
Two stories here, for a match when the home crowd was surprising low.
Firstly many congratulations to @LDF, Forecaster of the Week and big mover in the Leaderboard Table. Congratulations to @Twizz who also shifted upwards.
Many congratulations to @DevC holding fast in top position and congratulations to everyone else in the top half where nobody moved at all.
The other story is that thanks to @manchesterchairboy Chat gpt has joined the Leaderboard proper with an 8th prediction. So far the entity has missed the actual attendance by an average of 1,231 over those eight games.
The 9th best predictions will count towards everyone's score after the 18th game against Reading on Saturday, The green column shows each forecasters current 9th best score - the darker the green the bigger the impact could be.
Hapoy predicting to all.
It would have been quite an achievement for me to have sunk any lower @railwaysteve, but it's nice to receive the positive feedback!
Good to see that AI is still absolutely clueless
After the Reading Home Game - Match 18
Still playing catch up -
Many congratulations to @DevC for holding onto top spot.
Many congratulations to @wwfcblue for the large leap up the table [9th to 4th] and being the only forecaster to gain Reading (h) as a new personal best prediction as well as taking the title of Forecaster of the week for this game.
Ninth best predictions counted for the first time on this the 18th game of the season and most of the movement in the table was due to this. @Glenactico , @MFH_Blue and @Twizz were the only other forecasters whose Reading game forecast counted to improve a score.
In fact there is more positive feedback for @Twizz - the 655 score for the Reading game is a new personal 9th best and knocked roughly 100 off their previous 9th best score.
Finally please keep predicting @ShitcagoWWFC - at this stage you needed five more predictions to record a score and when you do I can almost guarantee that it will at least match that of Chat gpt - currently the average of your five predictions so far beats Chat gpt's average for their best five out of their nine so far.
For those that have been looking the outcomes for the Shrewsbury game are on their way and there were many more close predictions than there were in this game.
Good luck to all with predictions for the Bolton game.
After the Shrewsbury Away Game - Match 19
Many congratulations to @NewburyWanderer - the Forecaster of the Week for the Shrewsbury game - whose score of 18 was enough to pip at @DevC to the top spot. It's now goal difference at the very top, around a dozen souls between the two of them.
Congratulations to @DevC who retains the single closest prediction of the season so far.
Congratulations to @wwfcblue for taking 3rd place.
Congratulations to @mwite and @silverfox who took leaps up the table. There was no change in the 9 counting predictions this match so all the movement in the table iis due to good or otherwise predictions in the Shrewsbury game.
Congratulations go to @NewburyWanderer, @MindlessDrugHoover, @Onlooker and @MHF_Blue all with Shrewsbury as a new personal best prediction.
Congratulations also due to @PJS , @MindlessDrugHoover, @micra and @silverfox for reaching a highest position in the table so far this season.
Good luck to all with the Bolton game predictions - collectively we put on a good performance for the Shrewsbury match! Tenth best predictions will count for the first time and then the competition will continue to work off the best ten predictions for the rest of the season.
@railwaysteve @railwaybeth
Thanks again.
Hoping your journey down has not been too heavy.
After the Bolton Home Game - Match 20
Lots of close predictions this game.
First one correction to the Shrewsbury game Leaderboard - As I posted in the Shrewsbury game attendance prediction thread I made a transcription mistake with @perfidious_albion's prediction. His correct score was 138 for that game (not 305). It of course makes a change of one place upwards in the Overall Leaderboard for the Shrewsbury game Leaderboard with a proper score of should have been 188.56.
Apologies to @perfidious_albion and thanks for graciously pointing out the mistake. Apologies to @mwite who of course keeps the same score but would move down one place in the table.
If made the change on the master copy before I made the BoIton Game changes. I won't post an updated Shrewsbury game Leaderboad and I hope everybody is ok with that - please post if you are not! The Bolton game Leaderboard was made with that alteration already incorporated.
Now the Updated Table with that alteration and the Bolton game scores:
Many congratulations to @DevC retaking the top of the table with the 3rd best score of the Bolton match. Tenth best scores counted fo the first time and some movements in the table are due to that, but not this change.
A mention for @Shev, whose upturn in form, and 2nd best prediction of the week, resulted in a huge 30 point reduction in score but only a single place up the table.
Congratulations to @perfidious_albion - Forecaster of the Week and the single digit score of 8 is a new personal best. Congratulations are due to @Manboobs and @Shev and to Chat gpt who also made personal best predictions for the season so far.
Nobody moved up five or more places.
Three forecasters already have sub 100 scores and now will never lose that status this season, as it is now the ten best predictions which count on this leaderboard for the rest of the season. Congratulations to @DevC, @NewburyWanderer and @wwfcblue for reaching that milestone before Christmas. Its going to be a good season.
There are several places in the table that are very tight. @ryan_w_kirkby2 leads @a40 by just five predicted people total, @BSE leads @mwite @a40by a single predicted person (!) and @Manboobs leads @Onlooker by four predicted people
Please don't forget the Christmas fixtures - both threads have been started.