24 / 25 Season Attendance Prediction Competition
I have been working on a couple of tweaks and the competition doesn't really make much sense until after the first few games so we will start with how it stood after 4 games - Blackpool Away:
After the Blackpool Away Game:
First of all many congratulations to @DevC who took the early lead when the table showed the best two predictions of the first four games. His "Score" column shows an average of just 17 for his best two predictions for the four games up to this point - at Wrexham, home to Birmingham, home to Rotherham and at Blackpool,
Congratulations to @wwfcblue, @DJWYC14 and @93Chairboy whose best two predictions so far averaged to less than 50. Mentions for @NewburyWanderer, @ryan_w_kirkby2 and @Commoner whose early averages are less than one hundred - my own personal target is to finish the season with a best ten average of less than one hundred.
Congratulations to @robin who currently has the single best prediction of the season so far with a score of 8 for the Wrexham game. The Best column shows everyone's closest prediction so far and the PB Match column shows which Match that was in, as it did last season.
There is an innovation in the Score to Beat column - the darker the green colour the bigger number is that has to be beaten by the next prediction to improve the score in the light and dard blue score column.
The Movement column is blank because this is the first table of the Season.
The Top pos column will show the highest position reached by each forecaster [credit for the idea to @DevC]. At the moment is the same as the Position column, but I guess that will change.
The Forecasts column just shows the number of games played / forecasts made.
The Northampton Match data is already in the spreadsheet and hopefully that update will be published before the Villa game.
Anyone who spots an error or typo please let me know - I had typos in a couple of the Gasroom names. The earlier I know the easier it is to put right.
The "Score" for the 5th game will be the average of each person's best two predictions. That will change to average of best three with the 6th game, and average of the best four at the 8th game and so on until the 20th game when it will be the average of each forecasters best ten prediction and then it will stay as best ten predictions until the end of the season - just the same as last year.
Happy Predicting.
Comments
After Game 5 - Northampton (a):
Many congratulations to @DevC who retains the top spot.
Congratulations to @wwfcblue, @DJWYC14 and @93Chairboy who retain 2nd, 3rd and 4th spots respectively.
Lots of us were close this game and so there is a lot of movement in the table.....
Congratulations to @ryan_w_kirkby2 and @Commoner who take 5th and 6th spots respectively.
Many congratulations to @mooneyman in 7th who does now have the closest prediction of the season so far - missing by just 5.
@mooneyman; @robin; @perfidious_albion;@Will_i_ams and @Mandown all moved up the table by 5 or more places - congratulations to them. All of these fine forecasters, except @Will_i_ams now have Northampton (a) as their best prediction, as do @ryan_w_kirkby2, @Commoner; @a40; @mwite and @williwycombe. Congratulations all round.
Early days but forecasters are in fine fettle already.
The Cambridge game will change the score from being the average of each person's best two predictions to their best 3 predictions, so expect more changes. Current 3rd best scores now appear in the partially green column.
After the Cambridge Home Game - Match 6:
Lots of movement in the table this week - a few close predictions and quite a few fairly close predictions - plus each person's third best prediction counting for the first time this season.
So many congratulations to @DevC for retaining top of the table spot, and what looks to me like roughly a two point lead.
A shout out to @mooneyman who slips one place but retains the kudos of the closest predictions so far this season.
Congratulations to @DJWYC14 who moves from third up to second and to @robin who moves up 5 places to take third. Congratulations in @Shev who was the only other forecaster to move up five or more places this match.
Congratulations to @micra, @thecatwwfc and @Shev who now all have Cambridge (h) as a personal best prediction.
Special message for @our_frank - only two predictions so far this year meant your score dropped out of the spreadsheet. Any prediction for the Bristol Rovers game will put it back again. The thread for that should be up soon.
Special message for @username123 - the 1844 in dark green is what is pulling down your score. If you get within 900 of the Bristol Rovers attendance it will knock at least 300 off your score. The dark green in this case indicates a 'dark horse' with lots of scope to leap up the table.
Happy predicting to all.
After the Bristol Rovers Away Game - Match 7:
Many congratulations to @DevC who maintains a sizeable lead at the top of the table.
Many congratulations to @Commoner, who moves up from 6th to 2nd with a personal best prediction for the best game. Here is an interesting early season effect - as the Barnsley game will the the 8th of the season the score will be based, everyone's 4th best prediction will count after that game. @Commoner has a better current best 4th prrediction by almost exactly the correct amount to make a dead heat possible between the leading two.
Congratulations to @mooneyman for moving up to 5th place and for retaining the closest prediction so far for another week. Another strangeness that does occur more frequently early season is that @DJWYC14 in 3rd, @robin in 4th and @mooneyman in 5th are extremely close, each gap is only a single predicted person.
Congratulations to @bookertease; @MFH_Blue and @Glenactico who all moved up 5 or more places. For @Glenactico it was eleven places.
As welll as to @Commoner, congratulations to @Glenactico; @micra; @thecatwwfc; @silverfox: @our_frank: @Twizz and @Erroll_Sims who all have a newly minted personal best prediction badge for a memorial game away to Bristol Rovers.
Good luck to all with predicting the Barnsley away game for Tuesday night - either that or your current 4th best prediction will be added into the average for the next score on this thread, whichever is the closer
After the Barnsley Away Game - Match 8:
Apologies that this was not completed before the Crawley home game actually happened.
Now many congratulations to @Commoner who just takes the top spot from @DevC. All but five of us had scores of over 200 for this game. I had the 15th best prediction for this match and I had a score of over 500. Therefore for most of us the changes in the table were due to adding in an already existing 4th best score. This is what caused the change in the top two.
However congratulations are due to @bookertease and to Forecaster of the Week, @Forest_Blue - who had between them the two closest predictions of the week, both gained new personal best predictions and they climbed up 3rd and 4th places respectively. Both climbed 5 or more places up the table. @Forest_Blue now has the 2nd closest prediction of the season so far.
At this point the top four are really only seperated by goal difference. Roughly a point behind in 5th and 6th @93Chairboy and @mooneyman are themselves only seperated by a single predicted person, the closest margin possible without being tied.
Congratulations are due to @Shev whose score was just over 200 for this game and consequently he achieved a rise up the table of 5 places.
Congratulations also to @silverfox who achieved a new personal best with this match and moved up from 32nd to 28th.
Mentions for @Manboobs, @Glenactico, @PJS and @SmiroludyBlue who all had predictions in the top ten for the game, and moved up the table even though in the latter two cases their scores actually had small increases.
The outcomes from the Crawley game will be up as soon as possible, very likely tomorrow - it's @railwaybeth's birthday today!
Each person's score will still be made up of their best four predictions for that game. Early in the season and there were quite a few close scores so the table will continue to be volatile.
@username123 your entry is left in the table as you only need a single prediction to regain a score.
Thank you @railwaysteve
Happy Birthday @railwaybeth !
Indeed, Happy Birthday @railwaybeth
After the Crawley Home Game - Match 9:
Many congratulations to @Commoner for retaining top spot and to @DevC and @bookertease for retaining 2nd and 3rd places respectively.
Congratulations to @93Chairboy - up from 5th to 4th. Congratulations to @robin, furtherest mover of the week - up from 14th to 5th - due to a sub 100 score for the Crawley game and a big 4th best score to discard - 539 for the Rotherham home game. Only trouble it is that it is back now as the 5th best score and will count for the Peterborough game unless it can be tidied away again! Nobody else moved up more than 5 places.
However everyone in the top ten for the Crawley game - @Mandown; @mwite; @thecatwwfc (Joint Forecasters of the Week) and @93Chairboy; @williwycombe; @Onlooker; @SmiroludyBlue; @MindlessDrugHoover; @robin and @PJS who all had scores for that game roundabout a hundred or less - all moved up at least one place.
@mooneyman who was 11th in the Crawley game table with 139, did lose the one place, deserves a measure of congratulations for beating what was his 4th best game score - 154 for the Cambridge home game - and therefore improving his overall average. That quite tidy score of 154 now remains as a 5th best score and will work for him after the Peterborough game when 5th best scores count, unless of course it gets tidied away again. Congratulations again to @mooneyman who does have the closest prediction so far this season - just five away for the Northampton home gaem.
Congratulations to @James; @mwite; @Mandown; @SmiroludyBlue; @Onlooker; @williwycombe; @Twizz and myself who all now have Crawley (h) as a new personal best prediction for the season.
It has taken a little time to do the post for this week - there was a minor fault with the formula for producing each person's top position so far. I have checked the lot and revised the method and they should now be all correct and stay correct.
Good luck to all with the Peterborough game prediction. We will all be competing with "AI" in the form of ChatGPT - credit to @manchesterchairboy . My money is on the Gasroom!
Message for @username123 - I have kept your name in the main table as you have three predictions - you would need to predict the two or three of the next four games to have a score.
Message for @Will_i_ams - with 4 predictions, a forecast for the Peterborough game will retain a score.
Message for @James - good to see you predict again for the Crawley game, especially with a close prediction. I hope you carry on predicting, either occasionally or consistently.