I suppose the implication here is that we have had an "easier" fixture run as there are less top half teams, but the league is so tight (6 points between 6th and 16th) that I don't think that's a telling metric at this point in the season.
In our first 12 we've played Wrexham, Birmingham, Blackpool, Rotherham, Barnsley, Peterborough. All teams who would've considered themselves top 6 material when the season started.
Yes, we had the hardest possible start to the season. Imagine how it would be if we were to play those first two fixtures now. It was such an awful start that the small conspiracy part of my brain was asking "who programmed the fixture computer?"
We would have played Mansfield when their results had been poor and they seemed to go to some lengths to avoid the fixutre. If we pull off a miracle at Stockport on Tuesday they might be already be in the bottom half. Both those clubs illustrate how form can change during a season.
I think there is plenty evidence that we could win the fixture against Wrexham in a packed Adams Park in the middle of March and Birmingham away will be interesting..
Thank you @wwfcblue, the table does make interesting viewing - ourselves and Stockport have both played a limited number of games against top half teams and poor old Peterborough have shown a surprising consistency against top six teams.
The home game against Huddersfield will be a pointer. At the moment it does seem our trajectory has been one of steady improvement.
November games will perhaps tell us a fair bit. We undoubtedly have a strong squad but is it an automatic promotion squad, a play off squad or an upper middle squad. These five games may give us a better clue. Think I would take 7-8 points from the five games if offered now.
We can only play the fixtures as they fall. We may not be world beaters, but as long as we remain The Teams Around Us beaters, we should be okay come May. As others have pointed out, November will be an interesting month. Birmingham should still win the league, but there's a long way to go.
@wwfcblue - \i hope you don't think that my post was in any way a criticism of the table. I thought it presented the data clearly in an interesting way. It does of course show that our fine current record has been obtained playing sides which are currently in the bottom half of the table.
I am afraid I was rather clumsy making my points: -
Nobody is justified in using it as evidence that the fixture list has been kind to us.
Peterborough's form against top six sides has been surprisingly bad.
We have a lot to look forward to.
Thanks again. That does look a difficult set of fixtures for Stockport even if they are at home.
Amusingly I was reading the Forest forum after their recent 3-1 win over Leicester and the Foxes opposition views were clear that despite Forest's present run, and the victory, they are hardly world beaters, have been lucky and will be in the bottom half of the table by May.
The main thing is that we have given ourselves a platform to be in it at the end, even with a bad run or two.
It always makes me laugh when people (usually managers) say the league table does not matter till Xmas. If that was the case, we would have got promoted last season, as we were great after the new year! It was the pesky fact that ALL results matter which left us with too much to do.
All points count, and I am elated that we have so many on the board, no matter what happens from here.
I am the polar opposite of a mathematician having once got 2% in a maths exam at school for getting my name, form and date right, so I’m prepared to be corrected for my take on this. We are currently averaging 2.16 points per game and even if that average were to drop to 1.47 points per game it would still give us a final total of 76 points, almost certainly enough to claim a playoff place. All we’ve done so far is make an excellent start and give ourselves some wriggle room for the defeats that will inevitably happen, but it would take a major loss of form to not finish in the top six.
They, Birmingham, can still only win 3 points for a win the same as we can.
I don't see it as inevitable that they win the league by a huge gap. Yes they ought to win the league but the magnitude of the gap to second place is up to others. Ourselves included.
Winning the league is not just about the talent of the individuals in the squad. There are many sports teams who were packed with talent and underperformed. There are some who had less talent who over performed. Us under Gaz being a good example.
I’d say we are currently about as good as the sum of our parts and I think that’s good enough for top 6. Optimistically I think the squad under Blooms are going to become greater than the sum. That is more about what goes on off-field than a manager with some tactical genuis, although that helps and Blooms is no fool.
It’s about finding players with the right character, building mutual respect, becoming the manager who knows how to motivate different players differently. Getting the psychology of handling success and failure as a team right. Having the right facilities for training and coaches and back room staff that share the culture. Even a media team that the players want to talk to rather than it being a chore. Take a bow @bluntphil
I think we’re seeing a team that is very together on the pitch now. Just look at the collective joy when Kone scored that hat-trick. Look at the determination in the players when we go behind. You can feel it, a belief we will get back in the game. Our opponents can feel it too and it’s a huge advantage. All of this bodes very well for a great chance at promotion with this team.
And for the record I reluctantly gave up on Blooms after Orient away last year. I was wrong and am delighted to be so.
It’s interesting when people analyse this sort of data. We can only beat the team that is put in front of us and ultimately, if we have ambitions to win promotion (or the title itself), we will have to get results against most teams regardless of their position in the league (a few months in).
Birmingham fans were quite vocal about this on their forum, about how we are going to drop off because we had played the teams at the bottom. Perhaps they shouldn’t be so confident of picking up points against the teams currently scrapping at the bottom. We have been one of those teams on many occasions before and we have upset the odds on numerous occasions.
Come April / May, I’d rather be facing teams fighting for promotion than teams fighting for survival.
Agree @Gary how many times has the cliche been trotted out that if you want to progress 'these are the games you HAVE to win'...well we are winning them. The usual suspects would be exploding on here if we weren't...yet it seems actually winning them is really no indication if we are any good or not?
I suppose it's still possible that we could lose to Wrexham and Birmingham again and still have a chance of promotion.
Position in the table in November means very little when there are just 8 points separating 12 clubs from Wycombe in 2nd place to Peterborough in 18th. Teams in the bottom half this week can become teams in the top half in the space of seven days. We have gathered 26 points irrespective of who we have played and that’s all that matters.
I liked the Ainsworth approach when we were admittedly punching above our weight. The league table means nothing in November. The objective from the start should always be to get enough points on the board as early as possible to keep you in the league, and then see where you are and build on that.
Comments
I suppose the implication here is that we have had an "easier" fixture run as there are less top half teams, but the league is so tight (6 points between 6th and 16th) that I don't think that's a telling metric at this point in the season.
In our first 12 we've played Wrexham, Birmingham, Blackpool, Rotherham, Barnsley, Peterborough. All teams who would've considered themselves top 6 material when the season started.
Yes, we had the hardest possible start to the season. Imagine how it would be if we were to play those first two fixtures now. It was such an awful start that the small conspiracy part of my brain was asking "who programmed the fixture computer?"
We would have played Mansfield when their results had been poor and they seemed to go to some lengths to avoid the fixutre. If we pull off a miracle at Stockport on Tuesday they might be already be in the bottom half. Both those clubs illustrate how form can change during a season.
I think there is plenty evidence that we could win the fixture against Wrexham in a packed Adams Park in the middle of March and Birmingham away will be interesting..
Thank you @wwfcblue, the table does make interesting viewing - ourselves and Stockport have both played a limited number of games against top half teams and poor old Peterborough have shown a surprising consistency against top six teams.
The home game against Huddersfield will be a pointer. At the moment it does seem our trajectory has been one of steady improvement.
November games will perhaps tell us a fair bit. We undoubtedly have a strong squad but is it an automatic promotion squad, a play off squad or an upper middle squad. These five games may give us a better clue. Think I would take 7-8 points from the five games if offered now.
impressive graphic, would be a great Gassroom giveaway (or women’s team fund raiser) come the end of season - (whisper it ‘promo celebrations’)🤞
I'd imagine the Huddersfield game is highly likely to be postponed as it falls during the next international break.
Stockport have Reading, Wycombe, Bolton and Wrexham in the next four league games. All at home!
The table is only a snapshot and of course does not give an indication of form at the time of the game or league position at that time.
We can only play the fixtures as they fall. We may not be world beaters, but as long as we remain The Teams Around Us beaters, we should be okay come May. As others have pointed out, November will be an interesting month. Birmingham should still win the league, but there's a long way to go.
@wwfcblue - \i hope you don't think that my post was in any way a criticism of the table. I thought it presented the data clearly in an interesting way. It does of course show that our fine current record has been obtained playing sides which are currently in the bottom half of the table.
I am afraid I was rather clumsy making my points: -
Nobody is justified in using it as evidence that the fixture list has been kind to us.
Peterborough's form against top six sides has been surprisingly bad.
We have a lot to look forward to.
Thanks again. That does look a difficult set of fixtures for Stockport even if they are at home.
Not at all.
It would make interesting reading to have the positions when played and more data.
You can only beat what’s put in front of you.
No-one can say we've had an easy start after those first 3 games, Barnsley and Blackpool away and Peterborough in there too.
Most of that lot will be top 10 when it counts.
Amusingly I was reading the Forest forum after their recent 3-1 win over Leicester and the Foxes opposition views were clear that despite Forest's present run, and the victory, they are hardly world beaters, have been lucky and will be in the bottom half of the table by May.
I love football.
The main thing is that we have given ourselves a platform to be in it at the end, even with a bad run or two.
It always makes me laugh when people (usually managers) say the league table does not matter till Xmas. If that was the case, we would have got promoted last season, as we were great after the new year! It was the pesky fact that ALL results matter which left us with too much to do.
All points count, and I am elated that we have so many on the board, no matter what happens from here.
Agree @Shev and I hate games in hand...as it's tempting to assume we'll win.
When we are on a trevor run every game could be the one we turn it around...on a good run every game could be the one that starts the decline.
If we get to January on a decent run and keep Morley and Humphries, I will be quietly confident.
What is the best unbeaten run at AP...? Didn't Peter Taylor have 16 or something?
Oh come on, we know games in hand really matter! PPG and all that, 😄.
I am the polar opposite of a mathematician having once got 2% in a maths exam at school for getting my name, form and date right, so I’m prepared to be corrected for my take on this. We are currently averaging 2.16 points per game and even if that average were to drop to 1.47 points per game it would still give us a final total of 76 points, almost certainly enough to claim a playoff place. All we’ve done so far is make an excellent start and give ourselves some wriggle room for the defeats that will inevitably happen, but it would take a major loss of form to not finish in the top six.
Birmingham should still win the league
Unless of course they re-appoint Wayne Rooney, in which case they could still get relegated.
They should, and most probably will .... but I sincerely hope they don't.
I hope they fall from grace and flat on their over indulgent faces after spending the obscene money they have. Its ridiculous.
Happy to be sat in second with only a feather between us after we spent wisely but conservatively.
If they don't win the league with an absolutely huge gap they are gunna look like a massive bunch of wallies
They, Birmingham, can still only win 3 points for a win the same as we can.
I don't see it as inevitable that they win the league by a huge gap. Yes they ought to win the league but the magnitude of the gap to second place is up to others. Ourselves included.
Winning the league is not just about the talent of the individuals in the squad. There are many sports teams who were packed with talent and underperformed. There are some who had less talent who over performed. Us under Gaz being a good example.
I’d say we are currently about as good as the sum of our parts and I think that’s good enough for top 6. Optimistically I think the squad under Blooms are going to become greater than the sum. That is more about what goes on off-field than a manager with some tactical genuis, although that helps and Blooms is no fool.
It’s about finding players with the right character, building mutual respect, becoming the manager who knows how to motivate different players differently. Getting the psychology of handling success and failure as a team right. Having the right facilities for training and coaches and back room staff that share the culture. Even a media team that the players want to talk to rather than it being a chore. Take a bow @bluntphil
I think we’re seeing a team that is very together on the pitch now. Just look at the collective joy when Kone scored that hat-trick. Look at the determination in the players when we go behind. You can feel it, a belief we will get back in the game. Our opponents can feel it too and it’s a huge advantage. All of this bodes very well for a great chance at promotion with this team.
And for the record I reluctantly gave up on Blooms after Orient away last year. I was wrong and am delighted to be so.
Good post.
I think a lot of us reluctantly gave up @Manboobs because we were willing it not to be so.
I think most of us are pleased to have been proved wrong.
It’s interesting when people analyse this sort of data. We can only beat the team that is put in front of us and ultimately, if we have ambitions to win promotion (or the title itself), we will have to get results against most teams regardless of their position in the league (a few months in).
Birmingham fans were quite vocal about this on their forum, about how we are going to drop off because we had played the teams at the bottom. Perhaps they shouldn’t be so confident of picking up points against the teams currently scrapping at the bottom. We have been one of those teams on many occasions before and we have upset the odds on numerous occasions.
Come April / May, I’d rather be facing teams fighting for promotion than teams fighting for survival.
Agree @Gary how many times has the cliche been trotted out that if you want to progress 'these are the games you HAVE to win'...well we are winning them. The usual suspects would be exploding on here if we weren't...yet it seems actually winning them is really no indication if we are any good or not?
I suppose it's still possible that we could lose to Wrexham and Birmingham again and still have a chance of promotion.
Birmingham have only beaten teams below them in the table.
Position in the table in November means very little when there are just 8 points separating 12 clubs from Wycombe in 2nd place to Peterborough in 18th. Teams in the bottom half this week can become teams in the top half in the space of seven days. We have gathered 26 points irrespective of who we have played and that’s all that matters.
I liked the Ainsworth approach when we were admittedly punching above our weight. The league table means nothing in November. The objective from the start should always be to get enough points on the board as early as possible to keep you in the league, and then see where you are and build on that.
8 wins to the magic 50 points