For context we’ve nearly always lost to the big teams in tournaments, Germany in the last euros was an amazing exception.
It’s true that the last three tournaments had favourable runs but we won games we expected to win (with loads of criticism). I actually think Southgate and Holland have done a very good job results wise but they don’t create entertaining football. We might play better football in future but could well lose games like the Denmark one today. Going back through the record below there are a few defeats that we should have won…
I totally agree in every way. We generally beat teams we should beat and then lose to the first true contender we face. Southgate has gone further for the most part because he has had easier draws.
For this tournament I think the true contenders are Germany, Spain, France and Portugal. I don't expect us to beat any of these. Italy in the QF (assuming they get at least a draw against Croatia) would be a little like Germany last time out - a big name, but not on top of their game. It would still be a great scalp just like Germany was, though.
I guess time will tell. On today’s performance we will be lucky to make a QF tie with Italy but I would take that and fancy us to beat them. But I thought we’d win the last euro final against them.
I've traded many major tournaments for major betting companies. It's easy to do an excel spreadsheet and let the computer do the work. I think you would be good at it. As an aside there are far superior statistical packages to excel, but fortunately inept organisations such as bet 365 have no knowledge or expertise (or desire).
Lottery win aside, you have to know when luck just kissed you hello and run with it. A lot of people don't grab the chance when it comes.
Look at me. One life changing piece of luck many years ago and here I am now posting loads of pictures with pithy little captions underneath on an obscure football forum 24/7.
Speaking of contenders on a holistic level, has anyone noticed how we have gone from usually getting knocked out by Germany or Argentina (5 times from 1970 to 1998) to Portugal in the 2000s (2004 and 2006) to Italy and France more recently (3 times since 2012).
Thankfully Italy and France won't be in our half of the....oh dear.
A stronger analysis would possibly identify that England have comfortably beaten Italy home and away in qualifying. More worryingly lost to France at the World Cup in a match England had the best of.
I recognise how you've let the cat out of the bag O'Shev
England are generally strong qualifiers, which feeds the hype machine. I would make the comparison to regular season bullies in American sports who then fall apart in the pressure of the playoffs.
I'll rephrase - I don't gamble, so I am also not strong at setting odds. It is not remotely an area of expertise. But if I can do it in the form of rankings, I would go with:
Comments
Albania (before watching this game): "Beat Spain and we are through! Our fate is in our own hands!"
Albania (watching this game): "How soon before a flight can you check in, out of interest?"
@Shev
For context we’ve nearly always lost to the big teams in tournaments, Germany in the last euros was an amazing exception.
It’s true that the last three tournaments had favourable runs but we won games we expected to win (with loads of criticism). I actually think Southgate and Holland have done a very good job results wise but they don’t create entertaining football. We might play better football in future but could well lose games like the Denmark one today. Going back through the record below there are a few defeats that we should have won…
2000
Group
2002
Brazil QF
2004
Portugal QF
2006
Portugal QF
2008
DNQ
2010
Germany RO16
2012
Italy QF
2014
Group
2016
Iceland RO16
2018
Croatia SF
2021
Italy F
2022
France QF
2024
???
Say the people who got lucky
I totally agree in every way. We generally beat teams we should beat and then lose to the first true contender we face. Southgate has gone further for the most part because he has had easier draws.
For this tournament I think the true contenders are Germany, Spain, France and Portugal. I don't expect us to beat any of these. Italy in the QF (assuming they get at least a draw against Croatia) would be a little like Germany last time out - a big name, but not on top of their game. It would still be a great scalp just like Germany was, though.
I guess time will tell. On today’s performance we will be lucky to make a QF tie with Italy but I would take that and fancy us to beat them. But I thought we’d win the last euro final against them.
I've traded many major tournaments for major betting companies. It's easy to do an excel spreadsheet and let the computer do the work. I think you would be good at it. As an aside there are far superior statistical packages to excel, but fortunately inept organisations such as bet 365 have no knowledge or expertise (or desire).
Lottery win aside, you have to know when luck just kissed you hello and run with it. A lot of people don't grab the chance when it comes.
Look at me. One life changing piece of luck many years ago and here I am now posting loads of pictures with pithy little captions underneath on an obscure football forum 24/7.
Living the dream.
@Kim_il_Swan you have won the lottery of life. And it's to your credit you recognise that
The Gasroom isn't obscure mind.
Just yesterday the Norman Chester centre of football research called it the best message board across the 91 Football League clubs.
As an academic institution I'm sure they welcome criticism. But the best evidence we have
Back on topic.
Still a France Germany final.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FV323hLLfnA&t=21s&pp=ygUad2V0IG15IHBhbnRzIGhhcnJ5IGVuZmllbGQ%3D
A large minority of the English population wet their pants after a draw against Denmark.
Speaking of contenders on a holistic level, has anyone noticed how we have gone from usually getting knocked out by Germany or Argentina (5 times from 1970 to 1998) to Portugal in the 2000s (2004 and 2006) to Italy and France more recently (3 times since 2012).
Thankfully Italy and France won't be in our half of the....oh dear.
Holistic......Shev lives in a blue state.
I love your posts @Shev
But you are starting to sound like someone who has just discovered football!
A stronger analysis would possibly identify that England have comfortably beaten Italy home and away in qualifying. More worryingly lost to France at the World Cup in a match England had the best of.
I recognise how you've let the cat out of the bag O'Shev
Nebulous answer to q1.
Q2. Will rephrase. What probability do you attach to it?
You know you've got someone on the ropes when they are bullet pointing 😉
4 points from two games ain’t bad.
As Meatloaf sang
A richer analysis would start in 1950 when we British nations deemed fit to enter the pesky European invented tournaments
There are some worse datasets such as the Athletic crew who think football was invented in 1992.
You really have to wonder what kind of people are behind that. Trumpian style eradication of history.
England are generally strong qualifiers, which feeds the hype machine. I would make the comparison to regular season bullies in American sports who then fall apart in the pressure of the playoffs.
I'll rephrase - I don't gamble, so I am also not strong at setting odds. It is not remotely an area of expertise. But if I can do it in the form of rankings, I would go with:
And I know I have made good points based upon critical thinking when someone continually plays the man rather than the ball. 😉
Respect your rankings
What have you based them on?
6. Reminds me of euro 2000. Asked the guy which platform for Waterloo. He tried to direct me me to London. I said no Waterloo.
He said yes! The union who repelled the French
Netherlands Belgium England and etcetera
There is an acid test in football.
We say Holland
When the Chinese spies are tapping you up remember.
If they they say Netherlands they are a spy
If they say Holland they are football
I hope you have a great time shev. Even though you have no idea what's happening. Sometimes ignorance is bliss!
Dressed in Red white and Blue.
It's two game willy
We all love him too
Two game willy
As strong in opinion
As he laps it up
Cos two game Willy has access from us