Tracking Official Safety
Just because the rest of the league season may feel a little "on the beach", I thought I would show the bottom of the table with our minimum points total, and where everyone else's maximum is. Obviously some of these teams have to play each other, so they can't all hit their maximums, but for the sake of argument I will assume they all can, and update this after every round until we are official.
Official points to safety will shrink as we gain points or the 20th placed team drops them.
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It would actually be quite cool to go down with 61 points
They'd talk about it for years
Haha - it does make me wonder though, what would be the highest total that is mathematically possible to go down with? I suppose in theory 69 points, if everyone won half their games in a season?
The correct answer is that in theory you could be relegated with 78 points.
That sounds mad, what's the maths there @DevC ?
I would guess it's based on everyone beating everyone else at home (but losing away), except for the bottom 3 who lose all their games.
So (23 x 3) + (3 x 3)
24 teams in League One. Everybody wins all their 23 home games meaning everybody in on 69 points.
But three teams don't win any games at all meaning 21 teams are on 78 points (9 points from three away wins) and three are on 0 points.
One of the teams on 78 points has to join ther other three relegated teams.
It's Peterborough because of PPG or something.
If Reading were one of the three losing every game, how much in the negative could they end the season on?
Could finish like that or could be that all the auto promote teams and playoff teams get 81.
24 teams play 23 home games -552 games in total. There are no draws so 552 wins
3 lose all their games - nil wins - they get 0 points
15 teams win 26 games - (15*26)= 390 wins - they get 78 points
6 teams win 27 games (6*27) = 162 wins - they get 81 points
Total games played 552.
However if instead
3 lose all games - nil wins - they get 0 points
18 teams win 26 games - (18*26) - 468 wins - they get 78 pts
3 teams win 25 games and draw 3 (3*(25+3)) = 84 games - they get 78 points too
Total games played 552
God I'm sad.....
Actually thinking again that isn't right.
It would be impossible for three teams to each draw three games and all other teams not to draw any.
A and B could draw home and away and each draw at home to C but C can't find the third draw.
So
3 teams lose all their games - 0 points
18 teams win 26 games - (18*26) -468 wins - 78 pts each
2 teams win 25 games and draw 3 - (2**25+3) = 56 games - 78 pts
1 team scores a last minute VAR checked penalty and snatches the title with 26 games won and 2 draws - 28 games - 80 pts
552 games in total
Sadness personified
Sorry, but Peterborough lost all their games that season, so relegated anyway.
Or
three teams with 46 defeats
seventeen with 26-0-20 records - 78 points
three with 25-3-18 records - 78 points
one with 26-1-19 record - 79pts
I don't understand why I have no friends.....
Great posts!
The Gasroom: come for the football, stay for the mathematics.
Are you Rachel Riley in disguise?
Thanks all. I couldn't be bothered to work it out!
Why don't the three teams with 46 defeats never play each other?
😆
DevC currently headbutting a wall somewhere in the south-west of England
Ah feck @mooneyman should have explained that better.
The bottom three teams drew each of their games against each other leaving them with a season record of 0-4-42. They all failed Financial Fair Play however and suffered a Forestesque points deduction leaving them with zero points overall. The rest of the league was not affected.
I suppose with the reverse question (minimum points to get promoted) there is actually no answer precisely because of points deductions.
I'm glad you asked @Shev . Ignoring points deductions, I think I have the answer but will allow other sad bastards the chance to have a go first.
I always thought you'd have a spreadsheet for every situation. Great work.
I think it's 36 points:
Top 5 win all their matches against teams 6th - 24th.
6th - 24th draw all their games against each other = 36 points
6th wins play offs.
I think that's correct @counting_sheep. However, how would you sort out the play offs if teams 6th-24th all had identical goals for and goals against?
I guess like in international tournaments with disciplinary record and then coin toss.
If he has chosen his username well, I think @counting_sheep may be my sort of guy.
Of course @mooneyman (and I can't tell you how much pleasure this gives me after you identified my previous error.....), the teams in 6th to 24th wouldn't necessarily have the same GD - that depends on the margin of their defeats to the top 5 - and even ignoring that may have different goals scored depending on the scores in the draws (one team may have drawn every game 3-3 and another 0-0.
But I clearly said in my original post that ALL TEAMS HAD IDENTICAL GOALS FOR AND AGAINST. They all say drew every game 2-2 amongst themselves and all lost 3-0 in every game against the top 5.
I think that would mean every team would have a goal difference of 72 for and 102 against.
username checks out
I would have preferred a draw, but after Port Vale beat Burton our official number is down from 13 to 11.
I'm sure we could sort out a mathematical formula that denied Peterborough a play off place.
Almost the worst set of results we could have asked for today. We needed Barnsley, Bristol Rovers and Fleetwood to get results, and they all lost. Wigan taking two off Fleetwood is the only bright spot.
A very good day, aside from Barnsley again failing to take points off someone around us. The target is down to 7, but with our superior goal difference it is really 6 unless something dramatic were to happen. If Port Vale lose 1 and draw 2 and Burton lose 1 and draw 1, it would be official irrespective of what we do in our remaining 6.