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Stats Around Comebacks

edited December 2023 in Football

I am updating this from early last season, as it shows how our ability to comeback had gradually gone away even under GA, continuing under MB. We have gone from a team who pick up a lot of points from behind, to a team who pick up hardly any, but can't hold a lead either.

Points gained from losing v dropped from winning:

17/18: 20-12

Brilliant season all around, but we were especially good at rescuing lost causes.

18/19: 15-25

Despite this being a relegation battle season, we were actually ahead on points gained until that dreadful run starting around February, where we kept letting leads slip. Still, the 15 gained points from losing positions is very good for a relegation-threatened side.

19/20: 9-4

This one is the real surprise. I would have guessed more comebacks. There were only 34 games played that season before the playoffs, but it still means there were simply not a lot of comebacks in our games either way. We were basically taking the lead and holding on to it. The fact that we did not lose a single game in which we led, and only coughed up two leads for draws in 34 matches (Fleetwood and Blackpool) is quite brilliant, and reveals another legendary layer to that season.

21/22: 9-17

Despite coming 6th, we had a -8 differential, almost as high as the relegation battle season of 18/19. We also had several games where we were holding on 2-1 at the end despite taking a 2-0 lead and dominating, or rescuing a win from a coughed up lead (such as Taff's last gasp winner against Crewe in a game we dominated)

22/23: 8-20

The vast majority of this figure is under GA, as there were not many comebacks in either direction under MB, though a few.

So, the two pre-championship L1 seasons, with a relegation battle included and an inferior squad talent wise, we went 24-29 (which is excellent considering it is easier to drop points than gain them). The past two seasons, with 6th and 9th place finishes, we were 17-37. So far this season we are 2-7.

This is all to say that our "never-say-die mentality" went away more or less once we came back down from the Championship. It seems to coincide a lot more with Bayo's pomp than GA's, ultimately.


  • Bayo was unbelievable for us. It took three blokes to mark him. He was a cheat code.

  • Akinfenwa one of our greatest ever players in my book. Wanted him up top today when we were uselessly lumping it.

  • There were a few players saying die in GA's first full season as boss as I recall. Sadly for MB we can probably afford to sack him....just.

  • The big man had something that made you want to do the best you can. I’d have followed him over the top, up Everest, across the ocean on a rowing boat. In no small part because he is a thoroughly decent person. Legend is an overused word but not for him.

  • Eras can overlap at the same club, obviously, but there is definitely a clearly defined Bayo era, and it was glorious!

  • I think this also shows that the issue is not really "fight" - we clearly lost the fighting edge as Bayo's career wound down (and I would argue that Gape and Thompson were part of fantastic supporting cast for that tenacity, so it did not help that they both lost so much time to injuries in the last couple of years). We still managed to come 6th and 9th without any more fight or late heroics than the next club - less, in fact. I think the players are trying, but we have to do it with quality, tactics and unity. There will never be another Bayo.

  • Idk, the players look fed up at the moment

  • edited December 2023

    True, and losing will do that - I just don't think (and the stats bear it out to my mind) that we have been a tenacious, fighting team that can mount a stirring comeback since Bayo was in his pomp. I am not sure what the average is, but 19 points gained from losing positions and 44 lost from winning positions since we came back down from the Championship seems pitiful, especially given that we have generally had a quality squad during that time.

  • I'm just trying to work out which of the cliches is the problem.

    Manager lost the dressing room, or No Plan B.

  • Well they work together - no Plan B is the quickest way to lose the dressing room!

  • Further to this discussion, we have the worst goal differential after 80 minutes (-8) in the division, as well as conceding the most (11) after the 80th minute.

    On the positive side, we are in the green for the second half up to that point.

    I can't shake the feeling that we need some kind of Marcus Bean moment to shake us back into being a team that can perform late heroics.

  • that would take a complete change of approach

    all those late winners under Ainsworth were chaotic, and uncontrolled, and fuelled by pure emotion

    Last Saturday we were 2-0 and heading out of the FA cup with minutes to go and Ryan Taffazolli was strolling out of defence serenely before putting his foot on the ball, turning and knocking a lovely little sideways pass to Chris Forino

    sorry, need to to take a deep breath and count to ten. I've moved on from Saturday's post match anger and am looking forward to turning it around against Shrewsbury (such is the life of a football fan)

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