The run in
In an idle moment yesterday afternoon (with no game to fret over) I thought I’d look up the remaining fixtures for our likely rivals for a play off place so here they are (I’ve ignored Rotherham, Wigan and MK as they surely have too many points to be caught by us).
PLYMOUTH (on 74pts)
Oxford (H), Burton (A), WW (A), Sunderland (H), Wigan (A), MK (H).
OXFORD (69pts)
Plymouth (A), Morecambe (H), Sunderland (H), Fleetwood (AJ, MK (H), Rotherham (A), Doncaster (H).
WEDNESDAY (69pts)
Wimbledon (H), Bolton (A), MK (A), Crewe (H), WW (A), Fleetwood (A), Pompey (H).
SUNDERLAND (67pts)
Gillingham (H), Oxford (A), Shrewsbury (H), Plymouth (A), Cambridge (H), Rotherham (H), Morecambe (Aj.
IPSWICH (64pts)
Cambridge (H), Shrewsbury (A), Rotherham (A), Wigan (H), Crewe (A), Charlton (H).
Lots of unpredictable results in this list and - as ever - it’s what we do that matters more than anything else.
Comments
@glasshalffull How many points do you reckon to get in the play-offs? I reckon we’ll finish with 78 points. It will be incredibly close.
A very difficult question! Last season 74pts was enough but I agree that more are likely to be required this time, maybe 78-80? Four wins and a couple of draws? Five wins….who knows? I think the old ‘take every game as it comes’ cliche is appropriate.
Looks a tough run in for Plymouth,Oxford and Sunderland. Possibly only 1 of those 3 will make the playoffs. 81 points for us I think. Wednesday look to have it a bit easier
My prediction- we finish 6th with Rotherham, Oxford and Wednesday joining us in the playoffs
Im going for:
4th Sheffield Wednesday - 83
5th Plymouth - 82
6th Oxford - 81
7th Wycombe - 80
8th Sunderland - 79
9th Ipswich - 75
If we get 78-80 points and don’t make the play offs with that (which is likely) we’ll be really unlucky as it’s a bit of a freak season for points.
Yes ‘normally’ 73 or 74 points should get into the playoffs I think? But this season 80+? And our goal difference counts against us. I think we need 81 points to be sure. The home game to Wednesday counts ‘double’.
Imagine if we get 43 points and don't stay up, and then the next season get 80 points and don't make the play offs!
Fans of certain rival clubs would say it is justice for our points tally the season before!
It's in our hands.
Us and Sheffield Wednesday will only have themselves to blame if we don't make it. Our run-ins on paper are a little more lightweight than the others.
Having said that, Gillingham and AFC Wimbledon will be fighting for their lives.
It's exciting and it's in our hands. If we don't make it, we will look back to our mid season blip and can't really complain.
It has been a very fun season no matter what happens, with an unusually high amount of quality goals.
I feel quite mellow about it - sneaking in still only gives us a 25% chance, and though that bad run killed us, we might have ended up 3rd or 4th anyway owing to the torrid pace of the others and had the same 25% chance.
It has simply been a beast of a division.
It's a very strong division and would be gutting if we don't make the playoffs having been top at Xmas. Even more so that I think we are better than Oxford and Plymouth. League table doesn't lie though. Gives us something to cheer about and I'm proud of our achievement either way.
A fellow member of the Wycombe Wanderers Friends Facebook Group suggested we could win five and draw two of our remaining fixtures, giving us sufficient points (83) to be pretty well guaranteed a playoff place. I wish I could share his optimism!
I think the best case scenario (or at least the most realistic) will feature a couple of draws and at least one defeat (and a defeat/defeats by Gillingham and/or Wimbledon followed by a win or draw against Wednesday is the kind of frustrating sequence that I think we need to be prepared for).
I sincerely hope that this gut feeling of mine proves wide of the mark and that we get the run of the green in the playoffs that we enjoyed a couple of years ago.
COYB indeed.
Eighth with a game in hand sounds familiar...?
But is the ‘R’ rate high enough to justify curtailing the season?
In the last five matches played by all clubs in League 1 the top ten clubs have lost just 6, and drawn 15 matches between them. With than level of consistency the run in is going to be incredibly hard for every one.
The worst record over that period is held by Rotherham (1w 2d 2l).