It would be very disappointing if the death rate was still high. In the early days the lack of knowledge (and basic incompetence) meant that there was minimal protection against the virus for those most at risk. At this stage you would expect t that most people who do get it are likely to receive lower amounts of the virus (and therefore less potent?) and of the less vulnerable demographic.
Somewhere along the line we have to decide whether to live with it (and get as far back to normal as possible) or try and eliminate it completely.
At the moment I’m not sure the government knows what it wants to do.
But I am not expecting anyone to attend live matches much before Christmas at the earliest.
I think you will find that the majority of the most susceptible have already caught it and died. Those of us who are over 60, especially if in less than tip-top condition, are significantly more at risk than younger people and must continue to take precautions. Having said that the WHO reports growing numbers of serious cases amongst the under 30's presumably for the same reasons as medical staff i.e. excessive viral load due to regular exposure to the virus.
There is likely to be a spike once the weather cools down as will spend more time indoors often in places with poor ventilation; plus there is too little evidence as to whether children are potential super spreaders or not, sticking them in classrooms is pretty sure to lead to a second spike.
Outdoor venues on the other hand are much safer due to the volume of air and natural air currents diluting particulate spray.
The virus is not going away any time soon and whilst scientists have seen some minor mutations none of them, so far, have impacted it virulence. The only answer is herd immunity which is best achieved through a vaccination programme once one )or more) is approved.
You, of all people @DevC, know that quoting a single day statistic is dangerous.
Using your logic we are in an period of alarming increase in deaths from 8 reported on 9th to 21 reported on the 10th.
I know you're only fishing for an argument, I'm not joining in.
@DevC
Politically October is very likely to be a complete No No.
I do agree (in the main) with your other points. My company makes medical equipment used in hospital pharmacies so I get to talk to a lot of front line NHS staff. At the start of everything they were rushed off their feet. Quite a few have however told me recently that they are down to only a few cases in their hospitals with even less ventilated.
I think a big step forward in treating this horrid disease is the use of drugs that had been previously used to treat other issues.
Patients are not getting 'as ill' in the first place.
Again, like you, any death is a tragedy for all those involved I do however believe the vast (if not all - most days) majority of deaths are now with people with serious underlying health conditions.
Fingers crossed we don't see a second wave in the near future. It is the fear of that I believe that will seriously limit the return of mass gatherings - ie sports
I'm so confused by the numbers now. Didn't they suspend releasing the figures while they rethought their approach? As previous death figures included those who'd had COVID but later died of something unrelated? Either way, confirmed cases and deaths are fluctuating at the moment - even if it is at a relatively low level. Impossible to know for sure, though, without a proper test and trace system.
Schools going back will be a big thing. If the infection rate doesn't increase much from that it's a great step back to normality.
It's impossible to second guess the government and what their view will be in a month's time, let alone two.
We're told inside is more infectious than outside. Does Adams Park count as the former or latter? It's open aired, but you're sort of inside to some extent.
Is 2,000 people dotted around, largely remaining still for 90mins any more dangerous than 100s of people mingling in much smaller supermarkets etc?
Could we get away with it if everyone has a mask on? Maybe at least for the moving parts, and taken off when at your seat?
Who knows how this will go.
And while we could probably deal with 25% with our location, grounds that you really need to access by tube or train will be under a lot more strain.
Imagine if you're allowed say 1,000 fans in. How would you decide which of the 2,500 STH get to go in?
Years of holding a ticket?
Going to Carlisle?
Most involvement in limbs in a season?
Imagine if you're allowed say 1,000 fans in. How would you decide which of the 2,500 STH get to go in?
Years of holding a ticket?
Going to Carlisle?
Most involvement in limbs in a season?
Considering what else has opened, it seems mad that non-League clubs haven't been allowed to let fans back in - I mean very non-League, where you'd typically only have a couple of hundred in anyway.
Perhaps I didn’t explain political reasons as clearly as I should.
Open football grounds and let’s say Fred Smith goes to the game, contracts the virus around that time and dies. The media could if they choose make life very difficult for the PM. If they can find a good back story (perhaps Fred was a decorated war hero or his wife had died in tragic circumstances and his children now orphaned) and the media may if they wish bring the PM down completely. The fact that Fred probably caught the virus at work is irrelevant as would be the fact that there was probably a better chance of being killed in a car crash on the way to the game than catching and dying from the virus.there is irrelevant. The media narrative is what matters not reality.
On the other hand the political downside of keeping grounds closed longer than necessary on a better safe than sorry basis is minimal.
Hence good political reason to keep grounds closed longer than science suggests.
Life is a risk. More or less everything we do carries a risk of death. We are mortal after all. If we wait for a vaccine we may wait for years or ever. If we wait for the virus to be eradicated that day may never come. I think the current death toll (whether eight or twenty one) suggests it may be time to accept the risk.
Imagine if you're allowed say 1,000 fans in. How would you decide which of the 2,500 STH get to go in?
Years of holding a ticket?
Going to Carlisle?
Most involvement in limbs in a season?
@chairboyscentral said:
Considering what else has opened, it seems mad that non-League clubs haven't been allowed to let fans back in - I mean very non-League, where you'd typically only have a couple of hundred in anyway.
Unless things go mad in a bad way this next 5 weeks, they could without doubt let a certain number into our games.
Even if that number is 500 - 125 dotted around in the 4 seating stands, that'd surely be better than nothing.
Even if there's next to no food/extras etc.
@chairboyscentral said: @Malone Is it worth the aggro of people screaming injustice when they can't get in, though?
Probably not in fairness.
There's already enough potential for all that if it really is just STH for months on end, or zero prospect of aways all season to anyone who isn't one.
The first qualifying round of the FA Cup is scheduled for 1st of September, the first day crowds were to be allowed.
It would be mad if 80 or so men were not allowed to spread themselves around the perimeter of a football pitch while 200 or so go o work the next morning inside in a factory a fraction of the size.
@chairboyscentral said:
I'm so confused by the numbers now. Didn't they suspend releasing the figures while they rethought their approach? As previous death figures included those who'd had COVID but later died of something unrelated? Either way, confirmed cases and deaths are fluctuating at the moment - even if it is at a relatively low level. Impossible to know for sure, though, without a proper test and trace system.
I know of someone who died a short while age, he couldn't get the cancer treatment he needed back in May/June. Realistically, the cancer overtook him but on his death cert he died of Covid. I really don't trust any figures related to that disease. It may as well be pick a number, double it, divide by 3 and add ten!
@chairboyscentral said: @Malone Is it worth the aggro of people screaming injustice when they can't get in, though?
I think you will discover a mob of emus hysterically complaining about certain unworthy individuals getting in the ground!
I don't think that chap will be back.
It may have been an incredible coincidence, but there was a chap on twitter making very similarly timed, very similar comments. I doubt he wants anyone going any deeper into that.
Everything crossed to be able to get back into AP. When I went down to,get a pic with the cup I realised how much I missed match day and all that goes with it. Maybe the beer tent will be open in the car park otherwise it'll be a four pack on the hill before the game......
@chairboyscentral said: @Malone Is it worth the aggro of people screaming injustice when they can't get in, though?
Prioritising based on when you bought your ST is literally exactly the policy the club set out. Nobody could possibly complain they weren't informed.
I purchased mine asap for that reason and I fully expect the club to admit the maximum number of people they're are permitted, even if that is very low initially.
And on the general issue of whether or not supporters should or shouldn't be permitted in October, I think it would be an unacceptable double standard to delay the return to stadia any longer.
Many restaurants and pubs are now busy, certainly Mon-Weds. Cinemas are operating again etc. Surely outdoor stadiums must be lower risk. It is also easy to ensure that ticket purchasers provide contact number, address etc. to facilitate contact tracing were any of them to test positive.
You see players being subbed and having to sit 4-5 seats apart, when they've just been on a pitch in super close proximity to loads of players.
So there's plenty of bits that don't make sense.
Comments
I'll not chew you ovcer your misprint
Over not ovcer
It would be very disappointing if the death rate was still high. In the early days the lack of knowledge (and basic incompetence) meant that there was minimal protection against the virus for those most at risk. At this stage you would expect t that most people who do get it are likely to receive lower amounts of the virus (and therefore less potent?) and of the less vulnerable demographic.
Somewhere along the line we have to decide whether to live with it (and get as far back to normal as possible) or try and eliminate it completely.
At the moment I’m not sure the government knows what it wants to do.
But I am not expecting anyone to attend live matches much before Christmas at the earliest.
Are you saying, you feel Covid 19 is now a busted flush and the government might keep things closed in October for political reasons?
I think you will find that the majority of the most susceptible have already caught it and died. Those of us who are over 60, especially if in less than tip-top condition, are significantly more at risk than younger people and must continue to take precautions. Having said that the WHO reports growing numbers of serious cases amongst the under 30's presumably for the same reasons as medical staff i.e. excessive viral load due to regular exposure to the virus.
There is likely to be a spike once the weather cools down as will spend more time indoors often in places with poor ventilation; plus there is too little evidence as to whether children are potential super spreaders or not, sticking them in classrooms is pretty sure to lead to a second spike.
Outdoor venues on the other hand are much safer due to the volume of air and natural air currents diluting particulate spray.
The virus is not going away any time soon and whilst scientists have seen some minor mutations none of them, so far, have impacted it virulence. The only answer is herd immunity which is best achieved through a vaccination programme once one )or more) is approved.
You, of all people @DevC, know that quoting a single day statistic is dangerous.
Using your logic we are in an period of alarming increase in deaths from 8 reported on 9th to 21 reported on the 10th.
I know you're only fishing for an argument, I'm not joining in.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
@DevC
Politically October is very likely to be a complete No No.
I do agree (in the main) with your other points. My company makes medical equipment used in hospital pharmacies so I get to talk to a lot of front line NHS staff. At the start of everything they were rushed off their feet. Quite a few have however told me recently that they are down to only a few cases in their hospitals with even less ventilated.
I think a big step forward in treating this horrid disease is the use of drugs that had been previously used to treat other issues.
Patients are not getting 'as ill' in the first place.
Again, like you, any death is a tragedy for all those involved I do however believe the vast (if not all - most days) majority of deaths are now with people with serious underlying health conditions.
Fingers crossed we don't see a second wave in the near future. It is the fear of that I believe that will seriously limit the return of mass gatherings - ie sports
I'm so confused by the numbers now. Didn't they suspend releasing the figures while they rethought their approach? As previous death figures included those who'd had COVID but later died of something unrelated? Either way, confirmed cases and deaths are fluctuating at the moment - even if it is at a relatively low level. Impossible to know for sure, though, without a proper test and trace system.
This.
The only thing that the government will try to keep closed for political reasons is the Prime Minister's flies.
Schools going back will be a big thing. If the infection rate doesn't increase much from that it's a great step back to normality.
It's impossible to second guess the government and what their view will be in a month's time, let alone two.
We're told inside is more infectious than outside. Does Adams Park count as the former or latter? It's open aired, but you're sort of inside to some extent.
Is 2,000 people dotted around, largely remaining still for 90mins any more dangerous than 100s of people mingling in much smaller supermarkets etc?
Could we get away with it if everyone has a mask on? Maybe at least for the moving parts, and taken off when at your seat?
Who knows how this will go.
And while we could probably deal with 25% with our location, grounds that you really need to access by tube or train will be under a lot more strain.
Imagine if you're allowed say 1,000 fans in. How would you decide which of the 2,500 STH get to go in?
Years of holding a ticket?
Going to Carlisle?
Most involvement in limbs in a season?
Who'd be a decision maker eh!
Think it's in order of purchasing your st
Considering what else has opened, it seems mad that non-League clubs haven't been allowed to let fans back in - I mean very non-League, where you'd typically only have a couple of hundred in anyway.
Perhaps I didn’t explain political reasons as clearly as I should.
Open football grounds and let’s say Fred Smith goes to the game, contracts the virus around that time and dies. The media could if they choose make life very difficult for the PM. If they can find a good back story (perhaps Fred was a decorated war hero or his wife had died in tragic circumstances and his children now orphaned) and the media may if they wish bring the PM down completely. The fact that Fred probably caught the virus at work is irrelevant as would be the fact that there was probably a better chance of being killed in a car crash on the way to the game than catching and dying from the virus.there is irrelevant. The media narrative is what matters not reality.
On the other hand the political downside of keeping grounds closed longer than necessary on a better safe than sorry basis is minimal.
Hence good political reason to keep grounds closed longer than science suggests.
Life is a risk. More or less everything we do carries a risk of death. We are mortal after all. If we wait for a vaccine we may wait for years or ever. If we wait for the virus to be eradicated that day may never come. I think the current death toll (whether eight or twenty one) suggests it may be time to accept the risk.
Yes, good point!
Unless things go mad in a bad way this next 5 weeks, they could without doubt let a certain number into our games.
Even if that number is 500 - 125 dotted around in the 4 seating stands, that'd surely be better than nothing.
Even if there's next to no food/extras etc.
Surely that'd be both safe, and practical?
@Malone Is it worth the aggro of people screaming injustice when they can't get in, though?
@Malone According to when you renewed your season ticket, i.e. first 1000, first 1500 etc.
Probably not in fairness.
There's already enough potential for all that if it really is just STH for months on end, or zero prospect of aways all season to anyone who isn't one.
The first qualifying round of the FA Cup is scheduled for 1st of September, the first day crowds were to be allowed.
It would be mad if 80 or so men were not allowed to spread themselves around the perimeter of a football pitch while 200 or so go o work the next morning inside in a factory a fraction of the size.
I know of someone who died a short while age, he couldn't get the cancer treatment he needed back in May/June. Realistically, the cancer overtook him but on his death cert he died of Covid. I really don't trust any figures related to that disease. It may as well be pick a number, double it, divide by 3 and add ten!
I think you will discover a mob of emus hysterically complaining about certain unworthy individuals getting in the ground!
I don't think that chap will be back.
It may have been an incredible coincidence, but there was a chap on twitter making very similarly timed, very similar comments. I doubt he wants anyone going any deeper into that.
Everything crossed to be able to get back into AP. When I went down to,get a pic with the cup I realised how much I missed match day and all that goes with it. Maybe the beer tent will be open in the car park otherwise it'll be a four pack on the hill before the game......
Dumb question but,do,we,have a clue when the fixtures will be out?
Im sure i read this coming Monday....
Hopefully next week according to this: https://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/efl-fixtures-release-transfer-window-4409307
Prioritising based on when you bought your ST is literally exactly the policy the club set out. Nobody could possibly complain they weren't informed.
I purchased mine asap for that reason and I fully expect the club to admit the maximum number of people they're are permitted, even if that is very low initially.
And on the general issue of whether or not supporters should or shouldn't be permitted in October, I think it would be an unacceptable double standard to delay the return to stadia any longer.
Many restaurants and pubs are now busy, certainly Mon-Weds. Cinemas are operating again etc. Surely outdoor stadiums must be lower risk. It is also easy to ensure that ticket purchasers provide contact number, address etc. to facilitate contact tracing were any of them to test positive.
There's absolutely no logic to it - especially at a grassroots level. They seem to be treating all levels of football as one and the same.
You see players being subbed and having to sit 4-5 seats apart, when they've just been on a pitch in super close proximity to loads of players.
So there's plenty of bits that don't make sense.