Just seen it, so even though we were picking up form we stay at 8th. Rotherham were starting to struggle remain in second. They have based the results on our poor form over Christmas ignored our players that have returned from injury and form up to suspension and potential for every team to have a dip.
We weren't quite picking up form - the back-to-back wins v Bolton and Tranmere were our first since November and both v bottom 3 sides - although we were certainly showing glimmers and might have gone on to pick up form - with Fred back I was certainly confident of that! Plus the run-in looked favourable. But hey, we don't (shouldn't) need to worry about that now.
I read the BBC article and then clicked through to the Reading University piece.
The BBC says: "Using league form and historic records, they predict the number of goals a side will score in each given fixture and the percentage chance that a side will win that fixture. Those results are factored into the next week's set of fixtures and so on until the end of the season.
They repeat this model 10,000 times to get a percentage probability of where a club would have finished."
However, beyond this (and saying, with extraordinary irrelevance, that they used the techniques they apply to GDP forecasts), I'm still none the wiser as to what the factors in the analysis were other than "league form" (when?) and "historic records" (What records? When in history?).
If we could lean on historical probability of any kind to hand out prizes, bettors would be billionaires, one and all. I am just glad there were no past lockdowns to cause the following to be decided on the same terms:
FA Cup 1988: Liverpool awarded the trophy over Wimbledon, based on past performance
PL 2015-16: Arsenal awarded the title over Leicester, based on past performance
League Two 2017-18: Luton awarded the title over Accrington, based on past performance
@Shev said:
If we could lean on historical probability of any kind to hand out prizes, bettors would be billionaires, one and all. I am just glad there were no past lockdowns to cause the following to be decided on the same terms:
FA Cup 1988: Liverpool awarded the trophy over Wimbledon, based on past performance
PL 2015-16: Arsenal awarded the title over Leicester, based on past performance
League Two 2017-18: Luton awarded the title over Accrington, based on past performance
We could just save ourselves all the anguish week in week out, by just getting the tables predicted once a season based on wealth and "historical Level"
We'd probably sit around 10-12th in league 2 I expect.
Comments
Just seen it, so even though we were picking up form we stay at 8th. Rotherham were starting to struggle remain in second. They have based the results on our poor form over Christmas ignored our players that have returned from injury and form up to suspension and potential for every team to have a dip.
We weren't quite picking up form - the back-to-back wins v Bolton and Tranmere were our first since November and both v bottom 3 sides - although we were certainly showing glimmers and might have gone on to pick up form - with Fred back I was certainly confident of that! Plus the run-in looked favourable. But hey, we don't (shouldn't) need to worry about that now.
The Not The Top 20 podcast prediction also had us missing out on playoffs. Roll on PPG!
I read the BBC article and then clicked through to the Reading University piece.
The BBC says: "Using league form and historic records, they predict the number of goals a side will score in each given fixture and the percentage chance that a side will win that fixture. Those results are factored into the next week's set of fixtures and so on until the end of the season.
They repeat this model 10,000 times to get a percentage probability of where a club would have finished."
However, beyond this (and saying, with extraordinary irrelevance, that they used the techniques they apply to GDP forecasts), I'm still none the wiser as to what the factors in the analysis were other than "league form" (when?) and "historic records" (What records? When in history?).
Don't I deserve to know?
If we could lean on historical probability of any kind to hand out prizes, bettors would be billionaires, one and all. I am just glad there were no past lockdowns to cause the following to be decided on the same terms:
FA Cup 1988: Liverpool awarded the trophy over Wimbledon, based on past performance
PL 2015-16: Arsenal awarded the title over Leicester, based on past performance
League Two 2017-18: Luton awarded the title over Accrington, based on past performance
We could just save ourselves all the anguish week in week out, by just getting the tables predicted once a season based on wealth and "historical Level"
We'd probably sit around 10-12th in league 2 I expect.