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Lies, Damn lies and .....

I know statistical analysis is becoming more popular. I have to say in honesty I find some of the ones presented to be a little contrived and perhaps need to be taken with a dash of sodium chloride. I came across one statistic though that I thought was interesting and thought i would share with you.

Our record this year (defining good rest as at least four sleeps since last game, poor rest as three or less - eg sat-tues)

Good rest

Home
win 13 draw 1 lose 0
Away
win 4 draw 2 lose 5
overall
win 17 draw 3 lose 5

Points per game 2.16 - title winning form

Poor rest

Home
win 0 draw 1 lose 2
Away
win 0 draw 4 lose 1
overall
win 0 draw 5 lose 3

Points per game 0.63 - relegation form

Good statisticians will warn against assuming correlation when in fact it is coincidental, but perhaps suggesting that while our first 11 are top quality we lack squad depth and/or our intense pressing playing style cannot be replicated without good rest.

Anyway I thought it was interesting.

By the way there are only two more "poor rest" games - Coventry away and Wimbeldon at home.

Comments

  • Interesting perspective. I guess the poor rest stats are slightly skewed given the Darius factor. Any idea on the good/poor rest stats for the opposition? Be interesting to know if we're significantly worse than any others.

  • Over the season by a remarkable coincidence for Tuesday night fixtures there have been precisely the same number of wins and defeats across lg1 as a whole.

    Amazingly this also applies to the entire history of league one.

  • This is an interesting statistic.

    I wonder if there any easy way to separate out games in which Charles played, and those in which he didn’t?

  • Hmm thinking about it more, the biggest cause might be that we had tough matches over the Christmas period.

  • There will probably be three more 'poor rest' games (strong possibility Shrewsbury gets moved for international call-ups).

  • edited February 2020

    @Chris said:
    This is an interesting statistic.

    I wonder if there any easy way to separate out games in which Charles played, and those in which he didn’t?

    https://www.soccerbase.com/teams/team.sd?team_id=2898&season_id=152&teamTabs=results If you go to 'Player Filter' at the top and choose Charles, it'll separate them for you.

  • Thanks!

  • @chairboyscentral said:
    There will probably be three more 'poor rest' games (strong possibility Shrewsbury gets moved for international call-ups).

    Is that likely? Can't find Grenada fixtures anywhere

  • Are their only internationals Grenadian? I assumed there'd be fixtures in that international break. Hopefully the game gets played, though, could do without any more backlog.

  • Grenadian players are always looking for the nutmeg

  • Shrewsbury played during the last two international breaks. No reason why they wouldn't this time. Grenada is a beautiful place to visit but its not the richest place. I doubt if their FA can afford to fly players back from Europe for friendlies on a regular basis.

  • edited February 2020

    They haven't played during two of the three international breaks this season - well, any of them, but in one they were due to play Bury.

  • My mistake. I looked up England matches to get international breaks and got Womens matches by mistake. Doh!

    Grenada were playing CONCACAF Nations league matches in the autumn. Pierre played at least some of the games. They did well and qualified from it to the Gold Cup. That's finished now. Their FA website doesn't list any matches for March.

    We'll see but I would expect we would be playing as scheduled.

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