2019 / 20 Season Charity Attendance Prediction Competition Thread
I have been long promising this just like last year......
Seems a good day to launch this, on the weekend of a new era. Besides the thread for last season was launched in November.
Just as on the @DevC organised thread for score prediction there will be a signed shirt for the winner. This season it will be a charity competition.
The idea is the same as last year. We might finish above where we finished last season and did I mention that there will be a signed shirt for the winner.
The attendance prediction threads we have been creating each week combine into a season long event on this thread. All predictions made so far on those spreadsheets are incorporated, although I have yet to add in the Shrewsbury predictions
The rules are the same as last year - Your closest ten attendance predictions count at the end of the season. There could be as many as 50 chances to predict - 44 league games + Reading in the League Cup and at least the 1st round of the FA Cup this year. There is a possibility that we partake in the playoffs.
The best 10 predictions count and I will again use the average of those best ten, so the smaller this average is the better you have been at predicting and the higher up the table you will be.
In any game if you make a closer prediction than your 10th best your average will improve and you may leap or inch up the table. As those who played last year will know, it is possible to have a run of form and turn the table upside down. Did I mention that the Club have confirmed that there will be a signed shirt for the winner.
I won't publish the best top best 10 prediction table until we arrive at game 20 - not everybody predicts every game so it has more meaning after 20 games. As previously mentioned the charity will be the clubs medical partner charity - Chiltern MS Centre - who help local people with multiple sclerosis with physical, practical and emotional support.
Using the link below you will need to alter the default amount from £20 to £10, please consider gift aiding to allow Chiltern MS Centre to claim back tax: https://www.chilternsmscentre.org/donate-page/
This year everyone is on trust to make a donation.
One final thing to demonstrate how the competition is shaping up - here is a table for the best 5 predictions which was up to date before the Shrewsbury game:
| Average of Best 5 Predictions | Forecaster |
|---|---|
| 59.8 | DevC |
| 63.2 | wwfcblue |
| 65 | Shev |
| 74.2 | railwaysteve |
| 76 | Ned_Ludd |
| 78 | NewburyWanderer |
| 82.6 | Manboobs |
| 83.8 | micra |
| 83.8 | ValleyWanderer |
| 89.6 | Aok84 |
| 89.6 | robin |
| 92.2 | BlueBoy |
| 92.2 | twizz |
| 93.4 | wendoverman |
| 96.4 | DJWYC |
| 103.4 | ForeverBlue |
| 107.6 | Cecil |
| 108 | thedieharder |
| 110.8 | YorkExile |
| 113.4 | bookertease |
| 150.2 | a40 |
| 150.6 | Pogo |
| 151 | NorsQuarters |
| 151 | onlooker |
| 166.2 | Commoner |
| 183 | mooneyman |
| 187.4 | WidmerWanderer |
| 188 | AlanB |
| 196.6 | eric_plant |
| 202 | OxfordBlue |
| 209.4 | Alexo |
| 236.8 | Glenatico |
| 290.6 | glos_wanderer |
| 297.8 | perfidious_albion |
| 503.2 | th100 |
| 619 | floyd |
This only includes those who have made 5 predictions and I promise that the presentation of the table will improve.
There are three people whose best prediction is just two away from the actual attendance. Nobody has bettered that yet. The current three predicting at Championship level are:
@shev - the Bolton home game
@Twizz - the Reading League Cup thriller
@ValleyWanderer - the Gillingham away game
@micra - you are not rubbish.
To those in the relegation zone - if you forecast you stand a very good chance of improving the average.
To all - please look out for the Tranmere threads.
Comments
Top stuff Steve. Thanks for organising and all paid up.
Thanks @railwaysteve. I must have made a few decent predictions then!
I got into a hell of a state towards midnight last night when PayPal insisted that my stored password was invalid. I’ll resume hostilities later!
I'm in and paid.
For those who are taxpayers, may be just me but I nearly missed ticking the gift aid box in wordy bit in middle of page. Really worth ticking it though - worth an extra £2.50 to the charity at no cost to yourself.
I intend to have a pretty good effort at winning the signed shirt (think I remember reading somewhere that was the prize). If you feel it deserves to go to a better cause, pretty much your only option is to encourage as many people as possible to join............
Well done @railwaysteve for committing the time to organise this.
I gave up on PayPal when their page wouldn’t let me in to the alternative of paying by card. I phoned the centre and was put through to Laura who was very pleasant, helpful and appreciative but we both forgot to mention gift aid. I smiled at your description of the paragraph where gift aid was mentioned @DevC but thanks for reminding me. I’ll give Laura a ring.
Cue for a song, Dev?!
Whoops! Hearing going. It’s Lauren at the centre. Deals with fundraising.
I'm in and just paid no problem with PayPal.
I think I’ve changed my password too much recently and the password store doesn’t seem to have been updated. Only get problems when making donations. I buy stuff on Amazon occasionally and it’s never a problem.
Tranmere 1-3 Wycombe
nil nil
If it does go to a replay it would have to be played on the Wednesday as the England u20s are playing at Adams Park on the tuesday
Would also mean 3 consecutive games against Tranmere
Crikey. Bedford (mid ‘70s ?) all over again. Well, close.
This is not a score prediction thread!
The break has given me time to catch up:
Here how it stands at this moment. Congratulations to @wwfcblue - the leader at this time.
The chart is in the order of the 10 best predictions for each forecaster.
Anyone who hasn't made 10 forecasts yet doesn't yet appear in the table
The best column is each person closest prediction so far.
The 10th best column contains the score which is dropped out if it is bettered, so it gives an idea of how far you can improve.
A gentle reminder that it runs as a Charity competition this season.
For those who have yet to make a donation - using the link below you will need to alter the default amount from £20 to £10, please consider gift aiding to allow Chiltern MS Centre to claim back tax: https://www.chilternsmscentre.org/donate-page/
Please enjoy
After the Burton game:
Nobody was very close - several people made substantial improvements in their averages for their best ten, notably @Glenactico, @Wendoverman and @thedieharder; @Onlooker and @Commoner jumped up numbers of places.
Other updates should follow. System now in place.
After the rather annoying Oxford game:
A new leader with @DevC, who was the closest with the prediction for this game.
Lots of people did improve their average.
@Manboobs took the biggest leap up the table.
Happy predicting to all.
After the Pompey game:
@DevC has consolidated his position at the top of the table.
Significant moves up the table by @micra and @DJWYC14 .
Again, several averages improved.
Those who haven't predicted for a while - one good prediction makes a lot of difference.
After the Coventry home game:
Changes only for those who predicted a really big crowd. Significant gains in places for @twizz and @Commoner, @Glenactico continues to improve is average week on week.
Speaking for myself @railwaysteve, if you start out with some rubbish predictions it's easier to improve later in the season.
Donation made (better late than never I suppose).
My philosophy exactly. All I want is to have an average of under 100.
We have the updated table after the magnificent turnout for the Ipswich home game which was not widely predicted.
@Aok84, @Onlooker and @Commoner all made moves up the table after similar improvements in their best ten averages.
@NewburyWanderer improves the average, does not move up the table, but does become the 4th person to have a best ten average of 100 or less.
@DevC has a lead of roundabout 3 points, over a single game he can only just be caught by @wwfcblue, but there is a whole heap of players in the playoff positions all very close.
How does in feel to be Wycombe, @DevC ?
Here is the table updated for the Ipswich home game:
After the Sunderland game:
Only 4 people had a prediction within their personal best 10 and so improved their averages -
@Shev moved up three places and @YorkExile moved up 4 places in the table. @NorsQuarters and @OxfordBlue were the others to improve.
Rochdale at home next!
After the Rochdale home game:
There were a number of good predictions this week and so some significant moves.
@wwfcblue closed in on @DevC at the top, now close enough to be considered as a point away with @BlueBoy a further 3 points back.
A special mention for at @bookertease, who was only 10 away with this week's prediction and whose average improvement by almost the maximum it could have done. Congratulation on reaching a sub 100 average and on jumping 4 places to 4th.
@NewburyWanderer and @Shev are close enough to be considered to be just behind @bookertease on goal difference.
It is close, think of it as the top 6 all within 6 points of the top of the table.
The following bunch are all close too, one of @micra's famous spot on predictions would take him to 3rd (so long as the prediction doesn't gather a following).
Everyone down as far as @Twizz is within reach of a sub 100 average in a single game.
A special mention for @OxfordBlue, who like myself, has been making an acquaintance with the southend of the table - a prediction that was as close as that of @bookertease has resulted in two places higher in the table. With the average held back by 3 predictions in the mid 300s, three straight wins like this week would result in a play-off place. The same applies to those around him in the table.
Good luck and happy predicting. The Posh thread will be up soon.
Top stuff Steve. Cheers
Confirmed: no change at all in the table after the P'boro away game.
May your accuracy be good for the Blackpool home game on Tuesday - that thread is now up.
After the Blackpool home win:
Lots of improvement in averages right through the table.
Instead of five forecasters with averages under one hundred, there are now nine, with @Shev, @DJWYC, @micra and @ValleyWanderer all joining that elite group.
If there is a repeat bunch finish for the franchise game, both @DJWYC and @micra stand a good chance of further progress with 10th best scores in the 200s.
@Wendoverman made a remarkable improvement in his ten game average reducing it by more than 20% in a single game.
@Glenactico was another who took a sizeable slice out of the average.
At the very top @DevC's very close prediction consolidated his position, and looks around 5 points clear. @wwfcblue had a rare off week and narrowly lost 2nd place to @BlueBoy who recorded the closest prediction of the week and a new best score of 3.
@Onlooker also recorded a new best score of 4.
@micra was the biggest mover and shaker in the table climbing 4 places into the playoffs.
Accurate predicting to all on the franchise thread. I am going to put some serious thought into this one which will guarantee being out by at least a thousand.
After the franchise away game:
No change in the top nine. @Twizz moves into 10th into a position just outside those with double digits averages. @a40 tightens up on those currently fighting for the playoff places.
At the top @DevC is the only one who can reach, within a single game, of the 'average of 50' barrier and is still the rough equivalent of 5 points clear.
@OxfordBlue continues to have a better 2nd half of the season.
I may just reach my own personal target of a best 10 average less than 100: it would take me two more predictions as good as mine for yesterday.
After the Bristol Rovers Home game - just 4 gainers:
The stylish performance of @NewburyWanderer means 3 places higher in the table and up to fourth. No change in the top three - @DevC still the rough equivalent of 5 points clear.
@robin also moves up a place.
@Glenactico had the biggest improvement in average of the day and the best 10 average goes below 300 and by a long way
@thedieharder scoring average goes below 200 for the first time.
Happy predicting on the Fleetwood home thread which should be up soon.
I think Dev has been using his famous spreadsheets to gain an advantage over us mere mortals!
After the Fleetwood home game:
All the same at the top, @NewburyWanderer remains in 8th place but closes the gap on those above.
@Alexo knocked getting on for 100 off his average in one go.
@thedieharder continues to improve the average on a week by week basis.
I had a good week and am now almost within reach of a sub 100 average in one week.
Happy predicting to all for the Bolton game.
After the Bolton game:
Absolutely no change!
@BlueBoy, @NewburyWanderer, @ForeverBlue and @Cecil were all close to improving their averages, but not quite close enough.
@DevC leads with a cushion which approximates to 5 points with 12 games to go, unless we take part in the playoffs!
The Tranmere home thread is open for predictions.