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Nerdy league table analysis has us 2 points from safety

Ripped off from another football forum. The "projected safety" is, I believe, calculated from the points per game of the current bottom teams. It's current as of Saturday 13th.

99 - Absolute maximum points for the Champions
98
97
96
95 - Expected Champions total
94
93
92

91 - Projected Champions

90 - Projected Promotion

89
88 - Projected home advantage play offs
87 - Luton Town (need 3 points from 4 games for promotion and 4 points to be Champions; need 8 points to guarantee promotion whatever happens)
86
85
84
83
82 - Barnsley (need 8 points from 4 games for promotion)
81
80 - Sunderland, Portsmouth (need 10 points from 5 games for promotion)
79 - Charlton Athletic (need to win all of their games for promotion)
78
77
76
75
74

73 - Projected Play Offs

72
71
70
69 - Doncaster Rovers (need 4 points from 4 games for a play off place)
68
67
66
65
64 - Peterborough United
63
62
61 - Coventry City
60 - Burton Albion
59
58 - Blackpool
57

56 - Fleetwood Town; Projected Top Half

55
54
53 - Oxford United
52
51
50 - Shrewsbury Town

49 - Bristol Rovers, Projected Safety

48 - Gillingham, Accrington Stanley
47 - Wycombe Wanderers, Plymouth Argyle
46
45 - Scunthorpe United, Rochdale (need 4 points from 4 games for survival)
44 - AFC Wimbledon (need 5 points from 4 games for survival)
43 - Southend United (need 6 points from 4 games for survival)
42 - Walsall (need 7 points from 4 games for survival)
41
40
39 - Projected Bottom Club
38
37
36 - Bradford City

Comments

  • I’ve said for some time we needed 7 more points, 4 now after yesterday, to be safe.

    Whilst I wouldn’t bet against needing more than this we’d be incredibly unlucky to go down on 51 points.

    Fingers crossed whatever the total we can celebrate safety as soon as next Monday.

  • I think 4th from bottom will go down on 49 points

  • A week or so ago I thought it might be a record breaking relegation points total and we'd need 53 but looking at current form and remaining fixtures, just 3 more points should do it. Think Accrington might be in trouble with their run in.

  • edited April 14

    I still think it may take at least 51, owing to us playing three teams below us, and I know that at least Rochdale and Southend play each other. I would bite your hand off for four points from Rochdale and Walsall.

    That all being said, our goal difference will be an asset against everyone bar Southend. All of those agonizing one goal defeats at least ensured that!

  • 4 points from the next 2, seal it for certain against Wimbledon, and enjoy the Fleetwood game, in safety.

    That'd work well.

    👍 👎 ( 1 )
  • Not sure the Fleetwood game will be safe for Gareth if Barton is still in the dugout. Would suggest Bayo and El Abd come off early to act as minders for Gareth!

  • @mooneyman , Despite our Gaz being a real gent who always shows dignity in the way he conducts himself, he can certainly handle himself, and there's few guys you'd more want in your corner if it all kicked off.

  • On another note, having seen how that single win at the weekend bumped us up the league, imagine if just 1 or 2 of those 11/12 games beforehand had been wins! We'd have been so comfortable!!

    Still, let's see about a win Friday first.

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