Early Forecasting - League One Play Off Final
At the risk of typecasting myself forever, I suggest I start a Play Off Final prediction thread. The twist would be a reward for early predictions, dividing the number you miss the actual crowd by with the number of days before the game that you made the prediction.
An example: a prediction of Coventry to play Sunderland in front of 92,000 made 100 days before May 26th, could miss by 52,000 if it is actually us against Accrington for the third slot in the Championship, given an actual crowd of 40,000.
The first predictor's score would be 520 and would easily beat anyone who predicted 42,000 for the Wycombe v Accrington game the day before it happened.
Would gasroomers be up for this. If successful I could use it as a model for next season's FA cup game(s).
Small print rules would apply and would include having to name the two sides because I think that would be more fun.
Small prize for the closest prediction divided by the length of time it had been made. At least honourable mentions for those who predict the teams correctly. A different prize if anyone wins the attendance prediction and has the teams correct.
I'll start a thread if there is reasonable interest.
Comments
Charlton vs Luton
51654
Maybe
Barnsley v Charlton 53,689.
@bookertease and @Shev have started this off. I will run the spreadsheet so long as there are five predictions other than mine before the 100 day mark.
Just for fun I will go -
Wycombe v Luton 54,079
I reckon we would get 18,000 and Luton being such a big club would be bound to get double.
Luton v Barnsley 55,500, including Richie on his Grand Day Out, watching Barnsley get promoted.
Sunderland v Peterborough. 60,000.
Sunderland Charlton 54,279
Wycombe v Luton 60,042
Barnsley v Sunderland 60,000
Charlton v Peterboro' 51,780
Sunderland v Peterborough in front of 71,355
Portsmouth v Charlton watched by 66,800.
Luton vs Donny in front of 52,864
Sunderland v Peterborough, 70000
Wycombe v Doncaster 50001
Plymouth v Wycombe 52000
Now we are 112 days until the League One Playoff Final on May 26th.
Predictions so far in crowd order:
This game - your numerical distance from the correct crowd will be divided by the number of days before the game the prediction was made to give your final score.
Happy predicting.
Barnsley Sunderland 68,000
101 days until the League One Playoff Final on May 26th - a reminder for those who might be tempted to make a crowd prediction before the great divider slips below 100.
The aim of the game is to forecast the official attendance, and to say which two sides it will be between. There will be a small but relevant prize if anyone wins the competition and gets the sides right. There will also almost certainly be a number of honourable mentions for those who get both sides right
The winner will be person with the best score. The score which will count for each prediction will be the difference between the forecast attendance and the actual attendance divided by the number of days before the game the forecast was made.
An example:
@bookertease was the first to predict on 13th Jan - 133 days before the game - with 51654 (Charlton v Luton).
If the actual attendance is 52000, whichever teams are playing, the score for @bookertease will be (52000 - 51654) / 133 which would be a fraction over 2.6 . Anybody predicting the day before the game would doing very well if they were to beat that score.
I am sure that some of us would be pleased if the game was between Charlton and Luton .....
Regular Gasroomers will be able to tell that I have more time on my hands than usual. If this idea proves successful I might use it for our FA Cup game(s) attendance threads next year.
Happy predicting.
Pompey sunderland - 75000
Forgive me if I'm being monumentally stupid, but if you're dividing the attendance difference by the number of days before the game the prediction was made then you want to make your prediction 1 day before the game don't you?
Unless the lowest score wins
Lowest score wins.
Makes perfect sense
Can I still enter at this stage, with 89,000 please?
@OxfordBlue All entries welcome up to the day before the match. Do you want to say which teams will attract 89000. Us and Sunderland?
Haha. Sunderland and Portsmouth (for a second time this year) please.
Sunderland - Charlton 67,853
It is now 77 days to May 26th so @OxfordBlue has a prediction at 81 days and @ForeverBlue one at 78 days.
Sunderland v Portsmouth 83,250
Congrats to @Manboobs and @ForeverBlue, though I know getting the correct matchup does not guarantee the win. With Sunderland in the final, I have to think the crowd will be at the high end now, or above.