That isn't the issue. It would be interesting to know how many teams who drop out of the automatics into fourth at the end of the season go up via the play offs
final league position won't give you the whole picture though will it? For instance finishing 4th having been in the top 3 all season but then having a bad run and dropping out right at the end is a bit different from finishing 4th having been mid-table in february and going on a brilliant run and just missing out isn't it?
Fair enough. it is possible that the 11 of the 30 teams winning the playoffs from one place below autopromote all went on a run at the end of the season and none had just dropped out of auto places just before.
Just had a quick look for Fleetwood last year who won the playoffs from fourth. On this day last year they were three points out of auto promote in fourth , comfortably in the playoffs with 5 games to go. Presumably they were hoping for auto promote at that stage but just missed outin the last couple of games.
I really dont have time to do research on all though. Over to you!
If there's a point to be proved I'll do it when I get home tonight
But in the meantime anyone want to bet me £5 against the fact that a majority of the teams who have won the playoffs have been on a 'good run' rather than a bad one in the final 8 games of any given season?
I'm inclined to agree with @DevC that it's likely to be fairly random, with good form at the end of the 'regular' season not having a massive impact on playoff outcomes. But that's just speculation, based on no evidence whatsoever. And I'm certainly not prepared to go through the data!
I remember when we went up via the play offs in 94. We'd be up there all season, then a poor run in saw us drop to 4th and into a play off fixture V Carlisle, who's been mid table all season, but had a stunning late run to snatch 7th place in the final game. We ended up beating them comfortably over the 2 legs. I think sometimes the euphoria of getting into the play offs counts against the teams finishing 6th or 7th. For the teams who've been challenging at the top all season, as long as they can recover from the dissapointment of missing out on the top 3, they're often more focused and better equiped to deal with the play offs.
I am a bit of a sad creature and quite like stats, so I have done a little work on this!
Not entirely the question asked but the nearest approximation I can be arsed to work on.
So methodology: look at teams in the top 3 on 1 April in each of the three bottom divisions who then fell into the playoffs. How did they get on.
Well first the good news, of the 90 teams in the top 3 at 1 April, no less than 75 got auto promotion. In over half of the leagues the top 3 on 1/4 stayed there to the end.
And the big question, was there any noticeable effect good or bad on playoff performance????
Well of the 15 teams dropping out of the top3 , 3 got promotion, 4 reached but lost in the final 8 lost in the semi final. So on that measure at least think you have to conclude pretty random.
We have a surprising number of supporters who were regular attendees in their youth but have moved to other parts of the country as adults. A little outreach to these fans would help with the attendance (and the coffers).
I am a bit of a sad creature and quite like stats, so I have done a little work on this!
Not entirely the question asked but the nearest approximation I can be arsed to work on.
So methodology: look at teams in the top 3 on 1 April in each of the three bottom divisions who then fell into the playoffs. How did they get on.
Well first the good news, of the 90 teams in the top 3 at 1 April, no less than 75 got auto promotion. In over half of the leagues the top 3 on 1/4 stayed there to the end.
And the big question, was there any noticeable effect good or bad on playoff performance????
Well of the 15 teams dropping out of the top3 , 3 got promotion, 4 reached but lost in the final 8 lost in the semi final. So on that measure at least think you have to conclude pretty random.
Would you like to send me my £5 MR Attitude!
Hehe I applaud the research - I may do my own investigation later.
I would give you your £5 but 4 out of 15 teams is not exactly good form. It definitely shows you're more likely to win coming UP at the last minute.
Comments
Yes but those in 4th position could be teams who have recently climbed due to a good run of form.
Rather than teams that have spent the whole season in top 3 and then dropped on the last day.
Still think we will struggle psycologically Dev.
I am going with finishing third...beating Bury on goal difference.
That sounds familiar somehow...
Losing 2-1 to Northampton County on the last day?
gulp
That isn't the issue. It would be interesting to know how many teams who drop out of the automatics into fourth at the end of the season go up via the play offs
final league position won't give you the whole picture though will it? For instance finishing 4th having been in the top 3 all season but then having a bad run and dropping out right at the end is a bit different from finishing 4th having been mid-table in february and going on a brilliant run and just missing out isn't it?
Fair enough. it is possible that the 11 of the 30 teams winning the playoffs from one place below autopromote all went on a run at the end of the season and none had just dropped out of auto places just before.
You can get leagiue tables for every date on this site http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-two/2013-2014/table/2014-04-01
Just had a quick look for Fleetwood last year who won the playoffs from fourth. On this day last year they were three points out of auto promote in fourth , comfortably in the playoffs with 5 games to go. Presumably they were hoping for auto promote at that stage but just missed outin the last couple of games.
I really dont have time to do research on all though. Over to you!
I'm not the one trying to prove a point Dev old son
If there's a point to be proved I'll do it when I get home tonight
But in the meantime anyone want to bet me £5 against the fact that a majority of the teams who have won the playoffs have been on a 'good run' rather than a bad one in the final 8 games of any given season?
The majority of the teams in the play-offs will have been on a good run, so that would be a bad bet to take.
Perhaps @DevC would like to give it a go?
I'm inclined to agree with @DevC that it's likely to be fairly random, with good form at the end of the 'regular' season not having a massive impact on playoff outcomes. But that's just speculation, based on no evidence whatsoever. And I'm certainly not prepared to go through the data!
I remember when we went up via the play offs in 94. We'd be up there all season, then a poor run in saw us drop to 4th and into a play off fixture V Carlisle, who's been mid table all season, but had a stunning late run to snatch 7th place in the final game. We ended up beating them comfortably over the 2 legs. I think sometimes the euphoria of getting into the play offs counts against the teams finishing 6th or 7th. For the teams who've been challenging at the top all season, as long as they can recover from the dissapointment of missing out on the top 3, they're often more focused and better equiped to deal with the play offs.
I am a bit of a sad creature and quite like stats, so I have done a little work on this!
Not entirely the question asked but the nearest approximation I can be arsed to work on.
So methodology: look at teams in the top 3 on 1 April in each of the three bottom divisions who then fell into the playoffs. How did they get on.
Well first the good news, of the 90 teams in the top 3 at 1 April, no less than 75 got auto promotion. In over half of the leagues the top 3 on 1/4 stayed there to the end.
And the big question, was there any noticeable effect good or bad on playoff performance????
Cue drumroll............................................................
Well of the 15 teams dropping out of the top3 , 3 got promotion, 4 reached but lost in the final 8 lost in the semi final. So on that measure at least think you have to conclude pretty random.
Would you like to send me my £5 MR Attitude!
We have a surprising number of supporters who were regular attendees in their youth but have moved to other parts of the country as adults. A little outreach to these fans would help with the attendance (and the coffers).
If hazard a guess it's about 60%> @DevC said:
Hehe I applaud the research - I may do my own investigation later.
I would give you your £5 but 4 out of 15 teams is not exactly good form. It definitely shows you're more likely to win coming UP at the last minute.
4 out of 15 is better than 1 in 4, so it doesn't show that at all. It doesn't show much, as the sample size is too small.