Yes but no but. If you'd asked any of us to predict after game 24 last year how the rest of the season was going to go, I doubt any of us would have guessed it would go quite as terribly as in fact it did. I'm hoping that things will be much better this time round. There are objective reasons to suppose that it will, but my football fatalism will not allow me to express this as more than a hope. Expectations tend to get smacked around the head.
Ainsworths managerial record has been characterised by some massive unbeaten runs but also some long periods unable to win at all. The next bad run is hopefully a while off but it would be foolish to ignore it could happen.
I was surprised by only being 4th in the current form guide. We're not the only team on a run of form.
Yeovil is always a tough game for us, we have a dreadful record against them going back to our non league days. From memory we've only beaten them 3 times in the last 30 years and one of those I'm sure was in the Bob Lord Trophy!
Hard to say from a players point of view, but from a fan's point of view I always dread games against Yeovil, whilst I always feel confident when we're playing say Hartlepool, whom we generally seem to do well against.
There is every reason why historic results of matches between say Man United and Stoke may predict the future - but only because those results are influenced by the difference in resources between the two clubs.
For two roughly even matched clubs resource wise, historic results are surely irrelevant.
You may spin a fair coin ten times, and as it happens Heads has come up 7 times out of ten. What is the probability of heads coming up the next time, 70% because that is historic results?, less than 50% because there have been a lot of heads recently? or just a straight 50%?.
I agree Dev. I've never understood people who get hung up on these types of records.
It's not like the players are all die-hard Chairboys fans. I doubt they know (or indeed care) about the ins and outs of historic head-to-head information like this.
Thing is though there are some very real illogical trends in results between certain sides. Tomorrow's match up is one of them and plenty will be nervous of the back of it, myself included.
There will always be a few apparently surprising results in any random set of relationships - for example if you throw a coin ten times, you would expect 5 heads and 5 tails, right?
Err wrong, while that is the most likely outcome, there is a 75% chance you will get something else. There is approximately a 1 in 25 chance you will get a result as unlikely as 8 heads 2 tails. There are approximately 25 league teams in each division.
Comments
Is this the first time this season that our points position is better than last?
@OakwoodExile Yep.
@Vital Thanks. Let's hope it stays that way!
@OakwoodExile Well, last season we lost games 25 & 26 so there's a good chance of improving the margin over the next few weeks.
Given how poorly our season went from about mid January onwards last season I'd like to think the margin will grow significantly between now and may
Yes but no but. If you'd asked any of us to predict after game 24 last year how the rest of the season was going to go, I doubt any of us would have guessed it would go quite as terribly as in fact it did. I'm hoping that things will be much better this time round. There are objective reasons to suppose that it will, but my football fatalism will not allow me to express this as more than a hope. Expectations tend to get smacked around the head.
Indeed they do @OakwoodExile !
Ainsworths managerial record has been characterised by some massive unbeaten runs but also some long periods unable to win at all. The next bad run is hopefully a while off but it would be foolish to ignore it could happen.
I was surprised by only being 4th in the current form guide. We're not the only team on a run of form.
Yeovil is always a tough game for us, we have a dreadful record against them going back to our non league days. From memory we've only beaten them 3 times in the last 30 years and one of those I'm sure was in the Bob Lord Trophy!
Are past results against a certain club relevant to tomorrows match?
Yes. They are. Maybe not the last 30 years but history tells us each team has other sides they match up well or badly against over the years.
By luck rather than because of anything meaningful though.
Hard to say from a players point of view, but from a fan's point of view I always dread games against Yeovil, whilst I always feel confident when we're playing say Hartlepool, whom we generally seem to do well against.
I'm alike @Wycombe85, I dread the Yeovil fixtures. In my time watching, the majority of games are utterly dire and/or we get beat.
Agreed! Four defeats in that '86/'87 season and ever since then they've given me the "yips". I need a win tomorrow.
There is every reason why historic results of matches between say Man United and Stoke may predict the future - but only because those results are influenced by the difference in resources between the two clubs.
For two roughly even matched clubs resource wise, historic results are surely irrelevant.
You may spin a fair coin ten times, and as it happens Heads has come up 7 times out of ten. What is the probability of heads coming up the next time, 70% because that is historic results?, less than 50% because there have been a lot of heads recently? or just a straight 50%?.
I agree Dev. I've never understood people who get hung up on these types of records.
It's not like the players are all die-hard Chairboys fans. I doubt they know (or indeed care) about the ins and outs of historic head-to-head information like this.
Thing is though there are some very real illogical trends in results between certain sides. Tomorrow's match up is one of them and plenty will be nervous of the back of it, myself included.
More worried that Cup runs distract players and derail promotion push rather than bogey clubs meself.
There will always be a few apparently surprising results in any random set of relationships - for example if you throw a coin ten times, you would expect 5 heads and 5 tails, right?
Err wrong, while that is the most likely outcome, there is a 75% chance you will get something else. There is approximately a 1 in 25 chance you will get a result as unlikely as 8 heads 2 tails. There are approximately 25 league teams in each division.
During a drinking game, a group of us once correctly predicted the outcome of a coin toss 13 times in a row. The probability is less than 1 in 8000.
Fascinating I know!