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Fourth round draw

GA quoted as wanting a beatable team whereas 100% of pollsters want a huge away draw...

What about the gassroom?

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Comments

  • Beatable for me. Just a beggar having got this far only to go out to someone like Rochdale/Huddersfield/Barnsley away. Get them & practically no chance of extra TV revenue and not attractive enough to take 5000 up there.

  • Liverpool away please, especially if they play a weakened team like they have today.

  • Man utd away

  • I'd love Fulham away. Always a great trip to Craven Cottage and we'd take thousands up there. I'm with GA though, it would be nice to get a tie we have at least a vague chance of winning. A Championship side at home would be nice. I'd like us to avoid any side from our own division (Accrington, Plymouth if they get through) and Oxford, other than that I'm not too fussed.

  • Dumb question of the day but what's the deal on prize money now for the FA cup? Is it a share of gate receipts or a set prize £ amount for getting through?

  • Not keen on Accrington away or AFC but Sutton might be televised and winnable.

  • These are the teams still in it, listed by current league positions. If one assumes that the higher league teams will prevail (although I see that Plymouth have just taken Liverpool back to Home Park!), the statistics of us obtaining a plum draw away from home can be calculated.

    I would class the top 6 teams as a 'top' draw. The remainder of the premiership teams, plus a handful of others, such as Newcastle, Sheffield Wednesday, Leeds etc. would still represent a 'good' draw (although there are obviously large differences). That leaves 13 potential 'average' or 'poor' draws (I cannot be bother to predict the outcomes or to distinguish between them). There is, of course, a 50% chance of being drawn at home.

    Therefore the chances are as follows:-

    Top draw away ≈ 10%
    Top draw at home ≈10%
    Good draw away ≈ 20%
    Good draw at home ≈ 20%
    Others ≈ 40%

    1 Chelsea
    2 Liverpool
    3 Tottenham
    4 Man City
    5 Arsenal
    6 Man Utd
    10 Southampton
    12 Burnley
    14 Watford
    15 Leicester
    16 Middlesbrough
    17 Crystal Palace
    18 Sunderland
    20 Hull

    21 Brighton
    22 Newcastle
    24 Huddersfield
    25 Leeds
    26 Sheff Wed
    27 Derby
    28 Barnsley
    29 Norwich
    30 Fulham
    32 Aston Villa
    33 Birmingham
    34 Brentford
    35 Ipswich
    36 Wolves
    38 Bristol City
    42 Blackburn
    43 Wigan

    47 Bolton
    49 Rochdale
    50 Fleetwood
    53 Peterborough
    54 Millwall
    56 Oxford Utd
    57 Wimbledon

    70 Plymouth
    73 Wycombe
    77 Cambridge
    79 Blackpool
    88 Accrington
    93 Lincoln
    93+ Sutton

    For my money's worth, let's hope that the one in ten chance comes up of a plum team away. I would love a trip to a top 6 team, with the concomitant financial windfall for the club from crowd and TV revenue.

  • One of the top 6 (preferably away). Watford or Fulham away would be OK.

    Derby or Newcastle would not be too bad as we have an outside chance of winning and we've never played them before.

    Most of the league 1 teams would be dreadful draws, although Oxford or Millwall would be interesting enough.

    Otherwise, a home draw against Sutton (if the progress) or Lincoln (although that would doubtless be a very tough game indeed).

  • Scratch that, based on the disgraceful team Liverpool put out I hope they lose the replay to Plymouth and are no longer in the equation.

  • edited January 2017

    Top 6 team away, or the likes of Newcastle who would still probably sell out. If it's United, that'd guarantee a cool £1m from the gate alone. Then you'd get the guaranteed tv game, as United have had about 50 in a row now!

    Next best is probably the likes of Rochdale at home. The sort of game that gives you a chance

    Worst case is clearly your moderate league 1/champ team away from home.

  • Someone away (so less chance for the club to mess up ticket allocation) and not against teams that have to replay (although away to Norwich would be a good trip). Derby away would mean I could stay at the same B&B as when we won at Chesterfield so that would be good too.

  • A winnable home game or a big team away... Newcastle/ Birmingham wouldn't be bad

  • Arsenal or United away for the cash. Failing that a beatable team at home I guess.

    We seem to play Millwall a lot in cups.

  • @Doob , how do you men with the not having to replay comment? So, you wouldn't want Liverpool for instance?

    Failing the big game, or winnable game, at least getting someone we haven't played for ages/ever would keep interest going.

  • Wonder if we were paired with Chelsea, would Blackman be allowed to play? Also what would we do if Brown had left for Cheltenham as was widely reported?

  • Brown will surely play on Tuesday first. By which time we'll know the answers to those ones!

  • @Ozzie_the_Relaxed - here's a link to an article that sets out the prize fund split etc. http://www.totalsportek.com/money/fa-cup-prize-money/

  • @Malone I'd rather know who we're playing when the draw is made rather than wait for a replay, especially if it's a longish trip so I can make travel plans. As for Liverpool, I think I can live without travelling 200 miles to watch their youth team.

  • Yes, today's lineup does taint that idea a fair bit.

    But in age when even the likes of Bournemouth are making 11 changes, in facing a team higher than us, I dare say most teams Premier league/championship would do the same.

  • Hope it's away to someone. I think if we're at home we'll all be sick of the sight of Adams Park on a Saturday afternoon!

    Though I must admit I'd prefer a winnable game at this stage rather than a 'glamour' tie against the likes of Liverpool (youth).

    Ones I really wouldn't like would be the likes of Huddersfield, Rochdale, Millwall, Blackpool/Barnsley away.

    Wolves would be fun again

  • Anything except Brighton away. That would be a very difficult one to win, given their form this season, and a real pain to get to from my home in the East Midlands.

  • @bookertease I know what you mean about the run of Saturday home games. Perhaps we'll get Man U, home or away, that'll be on a Sunday as they play on the Thursday before.

  • I'll Never get sick of the sight of Adams park. Home draw,sell it out ,win , next round loads of money.

  • I have booked holiday for the Fifth round as I never really considered we'd get so far. So I'm rather selfishly hoping we draw one of the top 6 this round so I make sure I can see us up against one of the big boys.

  • Manchester United away please. Then Man City away in the fifth round.

  • And presumably Rochdale away in the quarters

  • Setting up a semi-final rematch with Liverpool.

  • You got a tag on Chris?

  • Our dreams of three Wembley appearances this season are still alive...
    (Actually I'd be very happy not to have to go through the playoffs again. Two would be fine)

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