remaining games, my predictions
Firstly, if we take our current home and away points average, I believe we will finish on around 85 or 86 points. So here are my predictions for the remaining games to see if this could be realistically achieved by looking at who we have actually got left to play and what I think we will get from each game.
Southend Away - draw 1 point
Shrewsbury Home - draw 1 point
Accrington Stanley Home - win 3 points
Luton Away - loss 0 points
Daggenham & Redbridge Away - win 3 points
Oxford Home - win 3 points
Burton Albion Away - draw 1 point
Cheltenham Home - win 3 points
Exeter Home - win 3 points
Wimbledon Away - draw 1 point
Morecambe Home - win 3 points
Northampton Away - draw 1 point
Total points predicted - 23, add this to the 63 we have, so 86 in total. Lets hope we can achieve this, as I believe this will be enough to go up as one of the top 3.
Comments
86 points will be more enough.
If we finish on 86, either Southend, Luton or Bury have got to pick up 28 points out of a possible 36.
6 wins from our remaining 12 games should do it, as the 3 who are below us would then need to win 8....
I dont see why in the way we are playing at the minute we cant go and win at Southend
Points are always harder to acquire during the final third of the season. Those scrapping for survival are much harder to beat.
Having previously predicted 73 about 8 weeks back, I now think we will achieve 83 points. Not sure if that is enough for automatic or would put us in the play-offs. I would obviously welcome more but we will see.
The two loanees will help a lot and Pierre coming back with a clean slate is a massive boost. Fred is becoming more confident every game and I fail to remember when a young loanee had so much impact on our results.
It is certainly going to be squeaky bum time but what a pleasure it is worrying about promotion or play-offs instead of wondering if we will drop through the trap door to the Conference.
A great season what ever happens from here for me. COYB.
Remaining fixtures for the top 6:-
1.Shrewsbury
2. Burton
3. Wycombe
4. Luton
5. Bury
6. Southend
07-Mar 1.Cambridge (H) 2.Hartlepool (A) 3.Southend (A) 4.Morecambe (H) 5.Oxford (H) 6.Wycombe (H)
14-Mar Wycombe (A) Accrington (H) Shrewsbury (H) Portsmouth (A) Mansfield (A) Dagenham (A)
17-Mar Morecambe (A) Southend (H) Accrington (H) Newport (A) York (A) Burton (A)
21-Mar Oxford (H) Tranmere (A) Luton (A) Wycombe (H) Northampton (H) Cambridge (H)
28-Mar Portsmouth (A) Stevenage (H) Dagenham (A) Northampton (A) Southend (H) Bury (A)
03-Apr Dagenham (H) Plymouth (A) Oxford (H) Exeter (H) Cambridge (A) Mansfield (H)
06-Apr Mansfield (A) Wycombe (H) Burton (A) Tranmere (A) Morecambe (H) Hartlepool (A)
11-Apr Exeter (H) Luton (A) Cheltenham (H) Burton (H) Newport (A) Tranmere (H)
14-Apr Bury (A) Carlisle (H) Exeter (H) Dagenham (A) Shrewsbury (H) Newport (H)
18-Apr York (H) Morecambe (A) Wimbledon (A) Hartlepool (H) Portsmouth (A) Exeter (A)
25-Apr Cheltenham (A) Northampton (H) Morecambe (H) Southend (A) Wimbledon (H) Luton (H)
02-May Plymouth (H) Cambridge (A) Northampton (A) Stevenage (H) Tranmere (A) Morecambe (A)
are excel courses available in Bracknell?
I've got us squeezing into 3rd on 84 points, 1 point ahead of Bury somehow. Used this site - it's nothing like the original BBC predictor which appears to no longer exist but certainly does a job.
http://www.thefishy.co.uk/calc.php
so after, one correct result on my far on my predictions. Saturday is a massive game, we must not lose the game but Shrewsbury will think exactly the same, hence me predicting a draw. Lets hope Fred is free from his injury for the game
After Saturday's game I think we could do this, and when you look at the remaining fixtures our away support could be significant. I anticipate great turnouts for all the last five away games, as only relatively short hops to Luton, Dagenham, Wimbledon and Northampton, and what better way to spend a BH Monday than a trip to Burton.
Also we have only got to play three of the teams in the top ten, where as Luton and Burton have six, although Shrewsbury look to have the (on paper) easiest run in, which makes Saturday's victory even more important. COYB
Just had a quick browse at the historical table, there are correlations that might point towards a required total for play-offs and automatic spots. The lowest points total for an Auto place is 74, although that was a particularly low total and the general average is 79-80. Likewise for the playoffs you can sneak in on 63, but 70 should get the job done.
As you would expect the bigger the gap between 3rd and 7th, the higher the points needed for an auto place, and lower for a play-off. It's a bit rudimentary, but as of today, the necessary gap is only 6 points (necessary gap being the difference between the minimum points needed for 3rd and 7th), which is low. Typically you'd expect it to be nearer 8 or 9. This tells us this years vintage will probably find 79-80 points enough for an auto spot, but a higher than average 72-73 to secure a play-off. It means it could well be tight, but for my money, Wycombe could be promoted with 4 wins. As others have pointed out, we have at least 6 very "winnable" games, which will prove pivotal. Just my thoughts, others may have a different approach to this.
Incidentally whilst looking at this I noticed that you have a 50% chance of winning at Wembley if you finish 4th.
I think we may need to get a win at Northampton on the last day of the season to confirm automatic promotion. Nail biting I agree but a massive difference from our nail biting trip to Torquay.
Somehow Torquay wasn't nail biting at any stage for me, it was all over, it was a chance to say goodbye to league football on a sunny afternoon on the coast....only in the last 10 mins of the game (when the miracle seemed possible) did I start to worry. How expectations change, I now worry every time Marcus Bean gets near the ball (he rarely actually gets to the ball thankfully).
It would make for a more than interesting game at Northampton if we needed a win to confirm automatic promotion and they needed one to confirm a play-off place.
More interesting but not desirable. Let's have it all wrapped up by then.
Hear hear
I think that goal difference will become very important as we close out this season.
Taking a slightly pragmatic view of our points total prior to the Northampton game, I can see us getting twelve points more. I predict Bury will get 13 more points prior to their last game. That could mean we are three points ahead of them prior to the last fixture.
Right now our GD is 8 in our favour so could be very important if, as I predict, we are three points clear of Bury going into the final day.
v Luton - Draw
v Dag & Red - Win
v Oxford Utd - Win
v Burton - Loss
v Cheltenham - Win
v Exeter - win
v Wimbledon - Draw
v Morecambe - Win
V Northampton - Draw
This would give us 18 points and leave us on 86 points. I think this will be enough for Automatic, I cant see Bury picking up 22 points from 27 as they have some hard games remaining.
@WWFC_ You have us winning all four of our remaining home games.
Don't you think that's a tad optimistic when we've won only 8 of the first 19?
I'm hoping our away form holds up.
Slightly pragmatic set of results:
Luton L, Daggers W, Oxford D, Burton L, Cheltenham W, Exeter D, Wimbledon D, Morecambe W, Northampton L.
That's 12 points, taking us to 80 and historically that should earn automatic promotion. 3 wins & 3 draws or 4 wins should get us there.
Given we have only lost 5 games all season, we have a great chance.
Lots of the top teams are playing each other in around the play offs against the top 5. As well we know having two tough looking games at Luton and Burton.
Its going to be 3 from the top 5. Nobody else will get in.
particular fixtures to note are these two.
28/03 Southend v Bury
14/04 Shrewsbury v Bury
If we go to Northampton with 80 points as DJWYC suggets I shall be pleased but although in many years it would be enough I don't like Bury's form at the moment and I'm not convinced it will be enough this year. I reckon we will certainly need something from the last game.
At the end of the day its in our own hands. We can afford to loose 1 game and possibly draw one and still get promoted. Sadly after Tuesdays draw and the Burton's win I think the championship is probably gone, unless we can win at Burton! Confident we can get a result at Luton, but they will be trying to secure a play off place now. Bad dip of form for them has now ruled them out of the automatic hunt.
I'd hope we could afford to drop more than 5 points and still do it! That would put us on 90 points. 4 wins and three draws would give us 83 points, meaning Bury would need 20 points from their last 9 games to overtake us, which will hopefully be a stretch even with their present form.
@Wig_and_Pen Bury are scrapping 1-0 results. There last four home games they lost 1-0 to Oxford, Beat Luton 1-0, they beat Hartlepool 1-0 and drew with Exeter 1-1. Sounds a bit to familiar!
I'm hoping the pressure to take the title will start to tell on Burton. I was not expecting anything from the Shrews game, so everything is possible. Any positive result at Luton and Burton would improve morale and focus for the remaining games I reckon.
Totally with @DJWYC14 on this. Three of each (W,D,L) is entirely realistic. @WWFC_ is in cloud cuckoo land but he's almost certainly right in one respect - 86 points will be enough!
When did Bury draw with Exeter?
Of their last 7 games, they've won 6 and had the loss to Oxford.
HOME GAMES
Sat 07/02/15 LET Bury 1 - 1 Exeter City
Sat 21/02/15 LET Bury 1 - 0 Hartlepool United
Tue 03/03/15 LET Bury 1 - 0 Luton Town
Sat 07/03/15 LET Bury 0 - 1 Oxford United
Apologies @M3G, completely misread the HOME game bit.