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Comparing us to recent bottom sides

Not to be defeatist (I still think a miracle is possible, if not probable), but I thought it would be interesting to see how we stack up against recent bottom clubs in the second tier, as far as goals for and against per game. I have put in their final points totals too.

Wycombe 20/21: 0.70 / 1.52
Hull 19/20: 1.23 / 1.89 45 points
Ipswich 18/19: 0.78 / 1.67 31 points
Sunderland 17/18: 1.13 / 1.74 37 points
Rotherham 16/17: 0.87 / 2.13 23 points
Bolton 15/16: 0.89 / 1.76 30 points
Blackpool 14/15: 0.78 / 1.98 26 points

A bit of a negative exercise, but it underlines just how much the problem has been with the attack. We are scoring less goals per game than every recent bottom club, but we have conceded less goals per game than every bottom club!

Based on form so far, we are on pace for 32 goals for, 70 against.

No bottom club has scored as few as 32 since the division went to 46 games in the early 90s.

No bottom club has conceded as few as 70 since Rotherham conceded 69 in 2004/05 (only scored 35)

I think we all expect to score more than 16 in the second half of the season (especially given the fact we did not score for the first several games), but for me these numbers underline just how much we need to get the attack on track.

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Comments

  • The positive is that you've more chance of staying up doing it our way round.

    Han will have that shield down. We've got to give him more time!

  • We scored four goals in our last game.

  • Funny thing is we’re not even the lowest scoring team in the Championship this season. Or second lowest. But we have conceded the most goals.

  • And not conceeding as many goals is the real key. It's not the most exciting part of the game but getting Stewart and Thompson back regularly is really important

  • It surprised me looking at the table last week to see we'd conceded the highest number of goals.

    We've rarely taken a hiding, mostly losing by a single goal, and kept a few clean sheets along the way. Strange league.

  • @LX1 said:
    The positive is that you've more chance of staying up doing it our way round.

    Han will have that shield down. We've got to give him more time!

    Forgive my ignorance. What does that second paragraph mean?

  • @micra said:

    @LX1 said:
    The positive is that you've more chance of staying up doing it our way round.

    Han will have that shield down. We've got to give him more time!

    Forgive my ignorance. What does that second paragraph mean?

    Star Wars reference, one presumes.

  • As I pointed out weeks ago, prompting ridicule from some posters, it’s our defensive record that is letting us down.
    I know it’s a statement of the obvious, but one goal is enough to win a game if you don’t concede.
    To give an extreme example, if you fail to score in every game but never concede, you would end up with 46 points and that would give you a chance of staying up.

  • So what would you do about it, @glasshalffull? New keeper? Which of JJ, Knight, Tafazolli, Stewart, Grimmer need replacing? Or how should they be coached to play differently?

  • Here you go @micra
    Lando Calrissian : [after seeing the Death Star is operational] Home One, this is Gold Leader.
    Admiral Ackbar : We saw it. All craft, prepare to retreat.
    Lando Calrissian : We won't get another chance at this, Admiral.
    Admiral Ackbar : We have no choice, General Calrissian! Our cruisers can't repel firepower of that magnitude!
    Lando Calrissian : Han will have that shield down. We've got to give him more time!

  • Its basic maths really, our style of play leads to the opposition having huge chunks of possession. Any championship side with that amount of the ball, would be disappointed if they didn't create a significant number of good chances. And at this level if you create enough good chances, you would normally expect to convert a percentage of the chances.
    I really don't think its our over worked defence that's the issue.

  • We have conceded the most goals in the league - but only by one goal
    We have not scored the least goals in the league - but only by one goal
    We have by far the worst goal difference

    Surely none of this is particularly surprising. We have (it would appear) by far the smallest budget in the division. That would tend to mean we can afford the worst collective group of players. We can and have tried to overcome that weakness with outstanding management and team spirit but it was always going to be an incredibly tough ask to finish anywhere but bottom this season.

    In truth we have done better than I feared. I remain proud of the team and the management and their achievements in being competitive in this vastly better league than any we have played in before. Who knows its still possible we could yet challenge to survive.

  • @aloysius said:
    So what would you do about it, @glasshalffull? New keeper? Which of JJ, Knight, Tafazolli, Stewart, Grimmer need replacing? Or how should they be coached to play differently?

    Defending well is the responsibility of the whole team, not just certain individuals. Under Gaz our defensive record has generally been very good, but we are now coming up against far superior players to those we have faced in recent seasons and that’s the main reason we have conceded so many goals.
    On Monday we face a manager who has never been afraid to β€˜park the bus’ but would that tactic sit well with the majority of our fans?

  • It's too simplistic to look at our defensive record for the whole season and draw a conclusion from that. We conceded 12 goals in the first 5 games (2.4 per game) followed by 23 in the next 18 (1.3 per game). We all know that we defended poorly in those early matches and we clearly tightened the defence from that point on. In the matches that have followed it's clearly our failure to score goals which is the greatest contributing factor to the position we're in.

  • @glasshalffull said:
    As I pointed out weeks ago, prompting ridicule from some posters, it’s our defensive record that is letting us down.
    I know it’s a statement of the obvious, but one goal is enough to win a game if you don’t concede.
    To give an extreme example, if you fail to score in every game but never concede, you would end up with 46 points and that would give you a chance of staying up.

    Talk about stating the bleeding obvious ( must be all your years in football !!) but let’s have some sense of realism. We have moved up in class and the way we play , with ALL matches , the opposition having far more of the ball, did you really think we wouldn’t concede goals. To say it’s our defensive record that is letting us down is disappointing and frankly disgraceful. The back 5 have in general had a good Championship so far. I would suggest the issues lie elsewhere. Creating and finishing chances.

  • I agree that we have improved defensively, but since November we have still conceded two goals in each of six games (Norwich, Forest, PNE, Barnsley, Coventry and Bristol City) and if you need to score three goals to win a game at this level you going to have problems.

  • @davecz is right we need to start winning games or we'll go down, start defending better or we'll go down, get some new players in or we'll go down and stop posting things that are just stating the bleeding obvious on the gasroom. Terrible stuff.

  • My spin is that, if the trend continues, we will get relegated with one of the best defences in recent years. As people have pointed out, defences win matches (you can spot people who grew up watching football in the 70s this way), so we should be in a really strong position next season

  • Some people are spending too much time comparing bottoms during this lockdown

  • @davecz said:

    @glasshalffull said:
    As I pointed out weeks ago, prompting ridicule from some posters, it’s our defensive record that is letting us down.
    I know it’s a statement of the obvious, but one goal is enough to win a game if you don’t concede.
    To give an extreme example, if you fail to score in every game but never concede, you would end up with 46 points and that would give you a chance of staying up.

    Talk about stating the bleeding obvious ( must be all your years in football !!) but let’s have some sense of realism. We have moved up in class and the way we play , with ALL matches , the opposition having far more of the ball, did you really think we wouldn’t concede goals. To say it’s our defensive record that is letting us down is disappointing and frankly disgraceful. The back 5 have in general had a good Championship so far. I would suggest the issues lie elsewhere. Creating and finishing chances.

    Why don’t you read posts more carefully before rushing to your keyboard? I said it was a statement of the obvious but some people won’t accept that a good defensive record will always compensate for a lack of goals.

    I also said that we have moved up in class and acknowledged that is why we are conceding so many goals. Why is it β€˜disgraceful β€˜ to refer to our defensive record as being the worst in the division when it is a fact?
    You think the problem lies elsewhere and I respect your opinion even though respect is something you rarely afford my opinions.

  • @LX1 said:
    Some people are spending too much time comparing bottoms during this lockdown

    Probably looking for rear of the year! Amanda Holden and Andy Murray winners in 2020.

  • @glasshalffull - it’s only in a subsequent post you refer to the fact about the move up in class. Your original made no reference and that was what I was responding to. With regard to your comment about respect, you clearly haven’t read some of my replies to your more recent posts when I was actually agreed with you!!πŸ˜€πŸ˜€

  • @davecz said:
    @glasshalffull - it’s only in a subsequent post you refer to the fact about the move up in class. Your original made no reference and that was what I was responding to. With regard to your comment about respect, you clearly haven’t read some of my replies to your more recent posts when I was actually agreed with you!!πŸ˜€πŸ˜€

    I'd say that omission comes under the category 'stating the bleeding obvious' if I'm honest and I for one don't need to have that explained to me every time.

  • @mooneyman said:

    @LX1 said:
    Some people are spending too much time comparing bottoms during this lockdown

    Probably looking for rear of the year! Amanda Holden and Andy Murray winners in 2020.

    I know I will get cyber abuse for this truthing but we need some new ones in now if we have a hope of competing for that Award. Ainsworth is obviously not taking it seriously.

  • Goalkeeper is the one position we didn't strengthen over the summer.

    It's not too late and it could make the difference between staying up and going down

  • In my eyes its creating and scoring goals that has been the problem.With the new additions and Iche fit we will certainly score more.

  • It was definitely simplistic to compare the whole season without the context of the first seven games, but it does show that we have been defending too well for a bottom club, but scoring anemically even for a bottom club.

    You can win conceding at that rate (basically 3 goals every 2 games), as in theory you could win a 2-1 and lose a 1-2 every other game. But to win enough scoring a little less than 3 every 4 games is extremely difficult. You would need a lot of 1-0s.

    The clearest comparison in the list is the Ipswich side of a couple of years back, with a slightly better goalscoring record and slightly worse defence. They ended up with 31 points, which is our pace.

  • I'd take a run of 1-0's at the moment. Hopefully we can cash in our bad luck from earlier in the season in to points. Not as bothered as others about comparing us to historic failures. We are a fantastic unique proposition and we'll finish in our highest ever position whatever.
    I'd love to stay up as I want to experience the Championship too. I think we can and if I'm honest probably will. We might need a points deduction or two to help us.

  • For me it ain't over until it's over @Right_in_the_Middle we have a Great Escape in us (and therefore another couple of teams to hate us forever) I feel.

  • @Wendoverman said:
    For me it ain't over until it's over @Right_in_the_Middle we have a Great Escape in us (and therefore another couple of teams to hate us forever) I feel.

    Me too. I am as excited as a person could possibly be with little prospect of seeing live football. We have a run of wins in us and I can't wait to see who our unexpected hero will be

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