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2019 / 20 Season Charity Attendance Prediction Competition Thread

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  • After the Tranmere home triumph:

    Most of us overestimated the crowd, probably due to some sort of wind. @OxfordBlue nailed the forecast and in consequence leaps four places in the table. That sort of form could still result in the title.

    @DJWYC14 had another good week, moves up two places and is very close to 2nd and 3rd positions. Just outside the playoff slots @bookertease and @micra swop places.

    @Glenactico has another week with an improving average.

    11 games to go - not counting the playoffs - for which there would be threads - can anyone catch @DevC who remains the equivalent of 5 points clear.

    Doncaster away thread up soon.

    Happy predicting.

    New Position Name New Best 10 av New Best New 10th Best Change in Pos Change in Av
    1 @DevC 53.6 2 106 0 0
    2 @BlueBoy 71.1 3 125 0 0
    3 @wwfcblue 72.7 12 129 0 0
    4 @DJWYC 73.8 16 123 -2 13.6
    5 @NewburyWanderer 79.4 20 153 1 0
    6 @Shev 82.2 2 182 1 0
    7 @bookertease 87.9 10 177 -1 5.1
    8 @micra 89 1 247 1 0
    9 @ValleyWanderer 99.2 0 180 0 0
    10 @twizz 104.2 2 214 0 0
    11 @Aok84 104.4 7 222 0 0
    12 @onlooker 117.4 4 186 0 0
    13 @robin 124.9 7 205 0 0
    14 @Manboobs 126.8 10 239 0 0
    15 @ForeverBlue 136.4 9 228 0 0
    16 @a40 137.1 35 247 0 0
    17 @railwaysteve 146.1 13 443 0 0
    18 @YorkExile 146.8 22 269 0 0
    19 @Commoner 149.6 37 260 0 0
    20 @Ned_Ludd 156.4 4 359 0 0
    21 @OxfordBlue 159 7 338 -4 34.4
    22 @mooneyman 161.4 37 248 1 0
    23 @Cecil 168.7 32 273 1 0
    24 @NorsQuarters 183.9 54 298 1 0
    25 @thedieharder 186.2 14 329 1 0
    26 @WidmerWanderer 197.4 36 307 0 0
    27 @wendoverman 208.4 14 544 0 0
    28 @Glenatico 257.8 45 491 0 2.5
    29 @AlanB 317.6 140 711 0 0
    30 @Alexo 361.6 48 857 0 0
    31 @eric_plant 495.5 49 1007 0 0
  • After the Doncaster away game:

    Congratulations to @Pogo who made a tenth prediction and joins the table in 29th position.

    No change at the top of the table - @DevC was close, but the miss by 116 was just outside the previous 10th best of 106.

    On to the Burton game.

    New Position Name New Best 10 av New Best New 10th Best Change in Pos Change in Av
    1 @DevC 53.6 2 106 0 0
    2 @BlueBoy 71.1 3 125 0 0
    3 @wwfcblue 72.7 12 129 0 0
    4 @DJWYC 73.8 16 123 0 0
    5 @NewburyWanderer 79.4 20 153 0 0
    6 @Shev 82.2 2 182 0 0
    7 @bookertease 87.9 10 177 0 0
    8 @micra 89 1 247 0 0
    9 @ValleyWanderer 99.2 0 180 0 0
    10 @twizz 104.2 2 214 0 0
    11 @Aok84 104.4 7 222 0 0
    12 @onlooker 117.4 4 186 0 0
    13 @robin 124.9 7 205 0 0
    14 @Manboobs 126.8 10 239 0 0
    15 @ForeverBlue 136.4 9 228 0 0
    16 @a40 137.1 35 247 0 0
    17 @railwaysteve 146.1 13 443 0 0
    18 @YorkExile 146.8 22 269 0 0
    19 @Commoner 149.6 37 260 0 0
    20 @Ned_Ludd 156.4 4 359 0 0
    21 @OxfordBlue 159 7 338 0 0
    22 @mooneyman 161.4 37 248 0 0
    23 @Cecil 168.7 32 273 0 0
    24 @NorsQuarters 183.9 54 298 0 0
    25 @thedieharder 186.2 14 329 0 0
    26 @WidmerWanderer 197.4 36 307 0 0
    27 @wendoverman 208.4 14 544 0 0
    28 @Glenatico 257.8 45 491 0 0
    29 @Pogo 309.3 39 899 New Entry
    30 @AlanB 317.6 140 711 1 0
    31 @Alexo 361.6 48 857 1 0
    32 @eric_plant 495.5 49 1007 1 0
  • edited June 2020

    First post on this thread since Feb 29th!

    I did consider and research the possibility of carrying on the competition using viewing figures for the playoffs, but I couldn't find a way to be certain of getting accurate enough figures so this year's competition for predicting the attendance is declared officially over.

    @DevC is therefore declared the honourable winner and will receive one of the two signed shirts and official congratulations on here. @DevC's own competition - the score prediction competition - will continue until the end of the season which hopefully will be at Wembley. I am not sure if Wembley can be location for the presentation, or indeed if we will be able to organise a personal presentation in the forseeable future.

    @DevC is a well worthy winner this year, his position as the leader after 34 games was unassailable over a single game: he was the equivalent of 5 points clear at the top of the table going into the Burton game.

    His two greatest successes were also arguably two of the most important games in the season for the Club, for the Oxford away game on 21st Dec Dev's prediction of 10125 was just two off the actual attendance of 10127, the closest of the day and Dev's closest of the season, for the Doncaster away game, our last regular game of the season, Dev's prediction of 7648 was an absolute outlier, more than 400 greater than the next highest prediction, but only missed the actual attendance by 116. It is a measure of the consistency of Dev's prediction that this one didn't make his closest ten.

    Here is a list of those who made the top ten for their best ten predictions over the 34 games in the shortened but sweet season: (which coincidentally contains all those with averages under 100)

    Final Table

    Name Best 10 average
    Winner @DevC 53.6
    2nd @BlueBoy 71.1
    3rd @wwfcblue 72.7
    4th @DJWYC 73.8
    5th @NewburyWanderer 79.4
    6th @Shev 82.2
    7th @bookertease 87.9
    8th @micra 89
    9th @ValleyWanderer 99.2
    10th @twizz 104.2

    Although @DevC had a clear lead at the last game, honourable mentions go to all of those above, in football terms it was only goal difference that separated everyone between @BlueBoy in 2nd and @micra in 9th. Two of @micra's spot on predictions could have taken him to the top of the table, assuming @DevC wasn't equally on top of his game.

    The full final table is in my post of 29th Feb which immediately precedes this post.

    For those who value accuracy over consistency here is a table showing all those who came within single digits of the actual attendance over the whole season:

    Forecaster Best predicition Game
    @ValleyWanderer 0 Doncaster (h)
    @micra 1 Tranmere (a) - FA Cup
    @DevC 2 Oxford (a)
    @Shev 2 Bolton (h)
    @twizz 2 Reading (h) - League Cup
    @BlueBoy 3 Blackpool (h)
    @onlooker 4 Blackpool (h)
    @Ned_Ludd 4 Fleetwood (a)
    @Aok84 7 Rotherham (a)
    @robin 7 Gillingham (a)
    @OxfordBlue 7 Tranmere (h) - League!
    @perfidious_albion 7 Fleetwood (a)
    @ForeverBlue 9 Fleetwood (a)

    Fleetwood was our most successful ground - which I'm sure bodes well.

    @ValleyWanderer deserves a special mention for the only spot on prediction of the season. @Manboobs and @bookertease both had best predictions which were only out by ten, just missing out on the single digit roll of honour.

    There were only two people with two predictions within single digits of the actual attendance - @ValleyWanderer with a zero and a two and @micra with a one and a seven.

    I have enjoyed running the competition and hope you all have - reading or participating - too. Next season might be easier in some ways - I retired in the middle of the Time of the Coronavirus - if the circumstances improve enough for us to watch football live or we have a way of measuring who is watching in other ways.

    Take care all. Many congratulations to @DevC for his accuracy and foresight.
    Most improved goes to @BlueBoy, who was 20th in the competition last season. The best newcomer was @wwfcblue, who didn't compete last season and finished this season in third.
    Finally and thanks to @robin, who often posted the attendances on the thread after the game.

    Up the Blues. Here's to next season.

  • Thanks for organising this Steve. A huge amount of work but made the season even more fun. shame it terminated early.

    Hopefully you can be back next year and we’ll be trying to guess 20000 crowds at Aston Villa away rather than 2000 at Accrington.

  • @railwaysteve, we salute you Sir for your effort. Hopefully come September we'll be able to make our predictions for those watching WWFC in the Championship.

  • Well done @DevC, a worthy winner - and thanks to @railwaysteve as always!!!

  • Can I demand a weighted PPG rule & sue anyone who doesn't agree with me?

  • Great fun again. Thank you Sir Railway.

  • Thank you for your time and effort mate. It's been fun!

  • Really appreciate the sheer amount of effort you put into this @railwaysteve. Enjoy your retirement

  • Thanks for your efforts as always, @railwaysteve.

  • @EwanHoosaami said:
    Can I demand a weighted PPG rule & sue anyone who doesn't agree with me?

    I'm already on to my lawyers...they won't get away with this.

  • @Wendoverman said:

    @EwanHoosaami said:
    Can I demand a weighted PPG rule & sue anyone who doesn't agree with me?

    I'm already on to my lawyers...they won't get away with this.

    I can wholeheartedly recommend Messrs Ferguson, MacAnthony and Fry who specialise in claims involving shithosery and will guarantee suing the arse out of @railwaysteve!

  • Thank you for running this @railwaysteve, it was fun to participate and I've genuinely no idea how I managed such a piece of luck for the Doncaster game!

  • Thanks for all your efforts with this @railwaysteve it was great fun. Enjoy your retirement.

  • I echo all the words of appreciation for your efforts @railwaysteve. If spared (!) I will complete 25 years of retirement in October and I hope you enjoy yours as much as I’ve enjoyed mine.

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