Back to the football, I wonder if the EFL might decide to use a variety of methods to establish the final positions, and say that if certain teams are promoted or relegated in all, or almost all of these, the they will be promoted or relegated (e.g. Bolton, Southend are rooted to the foot of League 1 under any PPG weighting, and quite frankly can have no complaints about being relegated).
Personally think that's unlikely, would look like pandering to try and not upset people rather than making a decision on what they actually see as the best way. There'd still be plenty of moaning as well
I still maintain the "weighted ppg" is pure nonsense, I can't believe it'll actually be remotely considered when it actually comes to it, if it is it'll just allow teams to work out which one factor suits them and put that forward.
@ReadingMarginalista@Username If I were EFL, I would do what ReadingMarginalista suggests, but as part of my defence strategy should it come to litigation, rather than as part of a publicly announced justification.
Just a thought to keep everyone happy - if they can play the playoffs but are struggling to choose between PPG and WPPG (and therefore between Portsmouth and Peterborough), is way out to play a preliminary round between these two, with winners joining us, oxford and fleetwood in playoffs.
@WanderingDays Well argued article, but I think that David Wheeler put it more pithily weeks ago, in saying that home and away is just one variable relating to unplayed games that might have a bearing and you could argue for any of the others. Better to judge on the basis of what has already happened.
There's no arguing with the Pompey article explanation though, it is possible to dismiss something that is damaging to you for genuine reasons, not just because it suits
Raw PPG is still predictive, but it's simple. To make away results worth more than home is absurd.
Here are another few tables which show just how high we've flown pretty much all season. Interesting that Peterborough have spent 12 weeks in the top three yet not once been top and only once even been 2nd.
For us it is yes! Objectively not so sure.
If they can play the playoffs that's probably the best solution, as I suggested above with a preliminary round for Pompey and Posh.
@DevC said:
For us it is yes! Objectively not so sure.
If they can play the playoffs that's probably the best solution, as I suggested above with a preliminary round for Pompey and Posh.
@chairboyscentral said:
Raw PPG is still predictive, but it's simple. To make away results worth more than home is absurd.
Here are another few tables which show just how high we've flown pretty much all season. Interesting that Peterborough have spent 12 weeks in the top three yet not once been top and only once even been 2nd.
How is a simple points per game calculation predictive? It ignores the unknown of the games to play and is based purely on what has happened?
@chairboyscentral said:
Raw PPG is still predictive, but it's simple. To make away results worth more than home is absurd.
Here are another few tables which show just how high we've flown pretty much all season. Interesting that Peterborough have spent 12 weeks in the top three yet not once been top and only once even been 2nd.
How is a simple points per game calculation predictive? It ignores the unknown of the games to play and is based purely on what has happened?
It assumes that teams are going to continue to pick up points at that rate.
@chairboyscentral said:
Raw PPG is still predictive, but it's simple. To make away results worth more than home is absurd.
Here are another few tables which show just how high we've flown pretty much all season. Interesting that Peterborough have spent 12 weeks in the top three yet not once been top and only once even been 2nd.
How is a simple points per game calculation predictive? It ignores the unknown of the games to play and is based purely on what has happened?
Basing a prediction on past events doesn’t mean it’s not predictive.
No solution is perfect or even very good. There is some logic to WPPG.
Being in a privileged position of professionally analysing data, and having plenty of "mathematicians" amongst friends / colleagues, it could be argued, but the conclusion would be that you're finding a method to fit a result.
PPG could be used as "predictive" if it was used to extrapolate how many points teams would get in full season.
That's not what is being proposed, it's accepting that the season is only 3/4 finished and analysing what has happened based on that. The final league table will be after 34/35 games, and how many points and PPG you achieved in an interrupted season , no prediction that it would be the same after 46
@Username said:
PPG could be used as "predictive" if it was used to extrapolate how many points teams would get in full season.
That's not what is being proposed, it's accepting that the season is only 3/4 finished and analysing what has happened based on that. The final league table will be after 34/35 games, and how many points and PPG you achieved in an interrupted season , no prediction that it would be the same after 46
Ah, I assumed they'd apply it to 44 games - although wouldn't that give more or less the same result?
It strikes me @username that PPG is a crude but simple clear way of predicting the remaining games and coming up with a final table.
WPPG corrects one level of distortion and makes a slightly more sophisticated attempt at predicting at the cost of being less simple.
You could argue that you correct for other factors, eg opposition league position, too increasing sophistication but reducing simplicity and beginning to base prediction on ever smaller data sets.
I am not convinced that there is a perfect way and that PPG is better or fairer than WPPG. Of course with my WWFC tinted glasses on of course PPG is better than WPPG unless they are planning playoffs in which case don’t much care either way.
@Username said:
PPG could be used as "predictive" if it was used to extrapolate how many points teams would get in full season.
That's not what is being proposed, it's accepting that the season is only 3/4 finished and analysing what has happened based on that. The final league table will be after 34/35 games, and how many points and PPG you achieved in an interrupted season , no prediction that it would be the same after 46
Ah, I assumed they'd apply it to 44 games - although wouldn't that give more or less the same result?
Not idea how they'd dress it up but surely it's just number of points gained divided by number of games played? No games played is needed then at all.
@Right_in_the_Middle said:
Not idea how they'd dress it up but surely it's just number of points gained divided by number of games played? No games played is needed then at all.
How would you divide by games played without needing games played?
@carrickblue said:
The Minister for the Union is a position created by Boris Johnson during his first ministry,to be held concurrently with his duties as Prime Minister. Johnson proposed the position during the 2019 Conservative Party leadership campaign.The office is intended to emphasise Johnson's commitment to strengthening the bond between the countries of the United Kingdom. He is the first Prime Minister to adopt the title.
Doesn’t seem to have done much on this front with his latest approach. A cynic might even think he’d be happy to see a split.
You don’t need to be a cynic to realise that Nicole Sturgeon wants a split and has been actively campaigning for one.
I never said that NS doesn't want to split from the UK, that much is pretty much known by everyone. My point was that BJ proclaimed himself to be "Minister for the Union" but is acting in a manner that has the potential to split any union by ignoring representation from the other three nations of the UK. The feeling from my friends over here in Northern Ireland is that BJ is generally ignoring the views from here and I would suggest that similar views in Scotland and Wales hold sway too.
Posh, Portsmouth, Fleetwood, Sunderland, Ipswich and our dear friends in Oxford releasing a joint statement the day before a private meeting is a good look...
Comments
Back to the football, I wonder if the EFL might decide to use a variety of methods to establish the final positions, and say that if certain teams are promoted or relegated in all, or almost all of these, the they will be promoted or relegated (e.g. Bolton, Southend are rooted to the foot of League 1 under any PPG weighting, and quite frankly can have no complaints about being relegated).
Personally think that's unlikely, would look like pandering to try and not upset people rather than making a decision on what they actually see as the best way. There'd still be plenty of moaning as well
I still maintain the "weighted ppg" is pure nonsense, I can't believe it'll actually be remotely considered when it actually comes to it, if it is it'll just allow teams to work out which one factor suits them and put that forward.
https://pompeynewsnow.wordpress.com/2020/05/14/why-direct-points-per-game-is-likely-to-trump-weighted-points-per-game-as-the-solution-across-the-english-professional-game/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Very interesting article here! And it looks good for us if this is correct
@ReadingMarginalista @Username If I were EFL, I would do what ReadingMarginalista suggests, but as part of my defence strategy should it come to litigation, rather than as part of a publicly announced justification.
A coincidence that this is a Portsmouth written article and that PPG benefits Portsmouth and WPPG doesn't?
Just a thought to keep everyone happy - if they can play the playoffs but are struggling to choose between PPG and WPPG (and therefore between Portsmouth and Peterborough), is way out to play a preliminary round between these two, with winners joining us, oxford and fleetwood in playoffs.
@WanderingDays Well argued article, but I think that David Wheeler put it more pithily weeks ago, in saying that home and away is just one variable relating to unplayed games that might have a bearing and you could argue for any of the others. Better to judge on the basis of what has already happened.
There's no arguing with the Pompey article explanation though, it is possible to dismiss something that is damaging to you for genuine reasons, not just because it suits
Raw PPG is still predictive, but it's simple. To make away results worth more than home is absurd.
Here are another few tables which show just how high we've flown pretty much all season. Interesting that Peterborough have spent 12 weeks in the top three yet not once been top and only once even been 2nd.
To be honest if looking objectively I am not sure it is absurd. Its a reasonable alternative to create a least worst solution.
The least worst solution is PPG without adding variables for the sake of it.
For us it is yes! Objectively not so sure.
If they can play the playoffs that's probably the best solution, as I suggested above with a preliminary round for Pompey and Posh.
Objectively/ statistically it IS inferior.
I think you could argue that @Username.
No solution is perfect or even very good. There is some logic to WPPG.
How is a simple points per game calculation predictive? It ignores the unknown of the games to play and is based purely on what has happened?
It assumes that teams are going to continue to pick up points at that rate.
Basing a prediction on past events doesn’t mean it’s not predictive.
Weighted PPG x number of sides of your ground that have stands + number of years since you were in non league.
Being in a privileged position of professionally analysing data, and having plenty of "mathematicians" amongst friends / colleagues, it could be argued, but the conclusion would be that you're finding a method to fit a result.
PPG could be used as "predictive" if it was used to extrapolate how many points teams would get in full season.
That's not what is being proposed, it's accepting that the season is only 3/4 finished and analysing what has happened based on that. The final league table will be after 34/35 games, and how many points and PPG you achieved in an interrupted season , no prediction that it would be the same after 46
I don't understand why people keep saying the the home/away PPG weights away wins higher than home wins
Could someone explain?
Ah, I assumed they'd apply it to 44 games - although wouldn't that give more or less the same result?
The French final league standings are on 27/28 matches played and then Ppg.
It would give exactly the same result, but it is a fairly key difference
A weighted PPG isn't going to happen (assuming the Premier League doesn't finish) as it would send West Ham down instead of Bournemouth.
It strikes me @username that PPG is a crude but simple clear way of predicting the remaining games and coming up with a final table.
WPPG corrects one level of distortion and makes a slightly more sophisticated attempt at predicting at the cost of being less simple.
You could argue that you correct for other factors, eg opposition league position, too increasing sophistication but reducing simplicity and beginning to base prediction on ever smaller data sets.
I am not convinced that there is a perfect way and that PPG is better or fairer than WPPG. Of course with my WWFC tinted glasses on of course PPG is better than WPPG unless they are planning playoffs in which case don’t much care either way.
Not idea how they'd dress it up but surely it's just number of points gained divided by number of games played? No games played is needed then at all.
How would you divide by games played without needing games played?
@glasshalffull
I never said that NS doesn't want to split from the UK, that much is pretty much known by everyone. My point was that BJ proclaimed himself to be "Minister for the Union" but is acting in a manner that has the potential to split any union by ignoring representation from the other three nations of the UK. The feeling from my friends over here in Northern Ireland is that BJ is generally ignoring the views from here and I would suggest that similar views in Scotland and Wales hold sway too.
I liked that northern Ireland minister who was shocked to find out there were religious divides in the province. Great stuff.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52670556
Posh, Portsmouth, Fleetwood, Sunderland, Ipswich and our dear friends in Oxford releasing a joint statement the day before a private meeting is a good look...