Ainsworth "uncomfortable" with football returning... for at least a year?
Very interesting interview with Gareth Ainsworth in the Times this morning.
Here are the full quotes:
"I would be uncomfortable playing at a time when this pandemic is still going on. If on the same street you've got one house celebrating a football result and next door there's an ambulance outside... that just can't happen."
"I've got one player who lives with his grandmother. What situation are we putting that player in? And one player, for me, is enough to say let's not do it at the moment. One risk is a risk too many."
I fully agree with Gareth in all he says. But let's be clear, this pandemic will not be over until either a cure and/or a vaccine is mass produced - and that's not going to be for another 12 months at the very earliest. What Gareth is advocating must be the suspension of football till summer 2021. A bold step, with huge implications for the game, but one that may well be necessary.
Comments
I think you've taken a compassionate and well thought out view from Gareth and added your own view on what definition means the end of the pandemic. He's not saying what you have assumed.
It's not my own view, but that of pretty much all of the world's epidemiologists, virologists, immunologists and the politicians that are guided by science.
You may not like it but there we are.
People will be dying for the next year, at least. This does not get solved through testing, contact tracing and isolation - only managed to the best of our ability.
No matter how good the estimates are or who's making them, no one knows how long this is going to last. It might be another year, might be more, hopefully will be less. Anyway, football, like any other business, is going to have to get up and running again - not as soon as this summer, I wouldn't have thought, but much sooner than next summer.
@aloysius is always right
I think any ideas of trying to play a ‘normal’ 20/21 season is wishful thinking in the extreme. They are going to have to devise a format with a lot of flexibility built in or it’s doomed to failure from the start.
Think you might be taken in by social media algorithms showing you what they think are your views. There are a whole range of expert opinions out there and a whole range of timelines. That is why we don't really know.
The tricky decision is going to be when more people die from the effects of the lockdown than from the virus. I'm glad that's not mine to make
I think we can all agree that we won't be in a stadium to see a game for a heck of a long time.
While every comment on "mere" football needs some sort of asterisk disclaimer about not being important in the scheme of life (to avoid forum aggressor's ire), you have to feel sorry for players potentially losing chunks of their career like this.
I assume we won't be in the stands this year but hope I'm wrong!
@Right_in_the_Middle I don't rely on social media to tell me what to think. I'm privileged enough to have a job that involves me having direct conversations with the scientists you read and hear about in the news each day. I let them guide me, not those who decide on the narrative they want to hear and refuse to listen to anyone who might show it to be wrong.
@aloysius - Unless a vaccine is discovered this virus will keep returning year after year at differing intensities as the plague did many many moons ago.
Life cannot be put on hold indefinitely as a result of this nasty virus. There will come a point when the damage to our economy of total lockdown will outweigh the number of covid deaths. The almost impossible task of the Government is to identify when this point arrives. There is a limit to the amount of debt the country can accumulate. Go over that limit and we will economically become like a third world country and not have the money to fund other critical NH services such as cancer, cardiac, mental health, etc, resulting in many more deaths than covid.
We have to accept that deaths due to Covid will continue, as we have to accept annual deaths arising from flu (10,000) and other diseases. The key is determining what is an "acceptable" level in order to get back to some form of normality.
I don't believe your interpretation of Gareth's interview is totally correct. To not play football for a whole season would mean the end of numerous EFL clubs and probably most non league clubs. Players, coaches, support staff would all become unemployed. I see no reason why next season could not be played behind closed doors provided that this can be financed by broadcasting revenue, sponsorship and possibly Government help.
Spot on @mooneyman although I’m pretty sure that games will be played in front of some dpectators
Never knew the Gasroom had so many experts in virology
Atm @eric_plant, everyone seems to be an expert at everything. Cant believe world poverty, famine and lord knows what else hasnt already been sorted.
I'm in a similar position, the level of misunderstanding in the general population is astounding.
@mooneyman I don't disagree with the central point of your thesis - life will have to resume at some point (probably mid June when the govt's contact tracing programme has proven to be glitch-free, maybe as early as late May). But that life will be very different. We'll be doing less work in offices, socially distancing more, probably wearing facemasks when commuting. Sport will have to adapt as well.
I really can't see crowds being allowed into stadiums until a cure/vaccine is mass produced and no one thinks that can be done till early next year (and that's on the most optimistic timelines). Just imagine how it would work. Say we all have to have a contact tracing app on our phone. One person reports having the symptoms of coronavirus a day after attending a match. His phone shows him to have been within 2 meters of say 100 people at the match for 15 mins or more. So they all have to isolate, as do people they were next to for the match - and so on. And all their family members who they were in contact with after they got home. Suddenly you have thousands isolating for two weeks. Not to mention the risk of the virus spreading from city to city, town to town, with away fans following their team. I just can't think that it's logical to have crowds at sporting events until this is properly eradicated.
And so if you have no crowds, football loses its business model. The Premier League can be sustained through broadcast and sponsorship revenue alone - probably - but the lower leagues? Again, think it through. Say Sky, BT and even terrestrial TV are allowed to broadcast as many games as they want - encouraged to, in fact, to keep that revenue flowing and to keep a bored population entertained through a dull autumn and winter. They will readily broadcast those matches - but we'll soon reach saturation point. How many will really tune in for Burnley vs Southampton when that week they're showing another 30 games live? And if people don't tune in for Burnley v Southampton, are they really going to for a Championship match? Or League One? I think clubs like ours will be stuck with iFollow. Putting aside questions of whether the technology will cope, how much revenue can they realistically charge for watching matches? Can they go much above the current £10? That's less than half what we most pay - and now it's one ticket per household rather than one per individual. Yes, we'll watch more away matches than at present - but revenue will still plummet.
You suggest the government might bail out football. Possible, but unlikely. Every sector of the economy is buggered at the moment and crying out for govt help. You can make a case politicians will listen to for why lower league clubs should be a special case - heart of the community etc, voters in each MP's constituency. But again, realpolitik kicks in. Our average crowd is 5500. Split among three or four constituencies, that won't make much of a dent to the majorities in safe seats. And that's replicated up and down the country. Besides, if people want football, the politicos will think, there's plenty of Premier League on the telly. We helped them restart, we did our bit. And look at AFC Wimbledon - clubs can bounce back from the worst. After a while.
This is why I'm a bit of an eeyore about all this. I really think clubs without very wealthy benefactors will struggle to survive if they try to restart too early, before conditions allow some semblance of normality to return. I think putting the Football League into cold storage for a year might have to be an option that's explored at some point soon. It would be incredibly difficult for players and would end many careers prematurely. It would be horrible for fans. But a scheme to furlough players and backroom staff for a year, part paid by the Premier League and part paid by the govt, might be the only way to save Football League clubs long term. We're not at that point yet, but I'll just leave the thought hovering. And hope that our friends in Oxford get this vaccine sorted sooner than anyone thinks possible to save us all.
Aloysius..what a welcome post. But that standard of posting is wasted on here methinks!!
Me too strangely enough and I'm not hearing the same assumptions you are making. There is a tipping points where virus deaths are lower than deaths caused by the consequences of lockdown and financial ruin. That is not a scientists call
There's several interlocking themes over the weeks going backwards and forwards hoping for some footy, When is anything possible? which half way measures are workable or desirable and how to make any changes equitable both financially and in terms of competition.
Waiting until everyone is healthy might be impossible for many clubs and yet the only option for some to entertain.
It does make sense that we are ready for any relaxation of the guidance, that the options are discussed at League level and the players are properly consulted. It won't be an easy decision.
Ireland's 'road map' of easing lockdwon restrictions might give some glimpse into how things could play out here, not that the two countries' respective crises can be directly compared. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52509390
We’re all experts on football on here (with about the same level of expertise) do I’m surprised you are so surprised
How many POTDs is one person allowed?
Very thought provoking @aloysius and I don’t entirely agree with @MBS. I am sure there are many on the Gasroom who, like me, dip into the news, the daily Press Briefings, Newsnight, sundry documentaries (especially the excellent Channel 4 two part documentary - Can Science Beat the Virus?) and anything involving the admirable Chris Mason.
But, even with all that, a lot of us probably lack the confidence to engage (on here) in the debate.
I have had an occasional look at the “What Should Happen to the Rest of This Season” thread but constant idle (and often totally unrealistic) speculation doesn’t exactly grab the attention. As one of the oldest Gasroomers I probably feel more sad than most about the future of ‘When Saturday Comes’ because there is a very real possibility that I (and others of similar vintage) may never experience being in a crowd of like-minded people enjoying live football again.
Dreamt the other night that I was at a game rubbing shoulders with other spectators and having a vague notion that something was not quite right. Odd things, dreams, but at least they do occasionally come true. Here’s hoping.
I'm sure you've got many more miles on the clock @micra and will be watching us live in the Championship, just look at Captain Tom. However, should you really be rubbing shoulders with fellow supporters in contravention of the two metre rule!
That's a really poignant post @micra. You really are a class act.
I feel as though a hopeful toast for Chairboys going forward should be "To seeing @micra at Adams Park!" I for one want to meet you, sir!
Thanks guys. To plagiarise our Vera, we will meet again.