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EFL set to suspend season

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  • Meant to say though. I suspect it will not be too long before it is judged the right time to cancel big events.

  • Conclude this season from the beginning of August.
    Have a month break then start the next season.
    Cancel the transfer windows .
    Next season would probably finish later than normal, then have a shorter break before starting 21-22 season.

  • @DevC said:
    Meant to say though. I suspect it will not be too long before it is judged the right time to cancel big events.

    And right on cue...

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/uk-to-ban-mass-gatherings-in-coronavirus-u-turn

  • @DevC said:
    That simply isn’t true Brownie.

    I am no fan at all of Johnson but he is in my view doing the right thing following the advice of his MEDICAL experts.

    So the medical experts say, for example, no need to cancel all sports.

    The very next day a raft of news comes out about players and managers ill or isolating, and it's all called off.
    Surely that means it wasn't the right call from the experts to not take the step themselves?
    Unless we think all of the infections only came to light straight after?

  • No malone.
    The experts said it wasn’t the right time to ban mass gatherings for public safety reasons. They gave no advise on how to run football leagues.
    The football leagues cancelled because they couldn’t run a fair league due to lack of players.

    In this internet age we like to think we are all experts in everything. We are not. Experts in virus transmission know more about controlling virus transmission than you do.

  • The interesting issue is that it only appears to be ‘our’ experts in viral transmissions that have deduced our approach is the correct way to control transmission. The gist of the argument as I see it is that if they bring in more draconian measures early, we - the great British public - will get bored of it and go back to our disobedient, inconsiderate ways before we should.

    So at least I’m reassured that our experts understand the British people, if not necessarily the virus.

  • @DevC said:
    No malone.
    The experts said it wasn’t the right time to ban mass gatherings for public safety reasons. They gave no advise on how to run football leagues.
    The football leagues cancelled because they couldn’t run a fair league due to lack of players.

    In this internet age we like to think we are all experts in everything. We are not. Experts in virus transmission know more about controlling virus transmission than you do.

    Yesterday you told me postponements would have little to do with the health of the players and that the PM had confirned games will go ahead.

    Now you've retro fitted opposite views along with some stuff about no one being an expert. Did you believe that yesterday too?

    Personally I just want life to get back to normal and everyone to feel safe as soon as possible. I think everyone of us can help that whatever advice the Government gives.

  • No I didn’t. I didn’t have a clue what you were talking about. I don’t with this post either. Genuinely are you OK mate?

  • Plymouth could end up in L1 if the season is canceled but divisions want 24 teams. How strange would that be!

  • I dare say we will have more by August if it looks like we will be starting playing again soon.

    As of now we don’t know when we will be able to start playing again nor whether virus is considered likely to return next winter. Until we know more, hard to make plans.

    I fear the world may look rather different by August.

  • @Brownie said:

    @DevC said:
    What Johnson seems to be doing is following the medical advice even when politically safer not to.
    I am not his greatest fan but that is exactly what I would want him to.

    What Johnson is doing is making it clear that in the balance between protecting economic activity as much as possible and risking killing a few thousand older people, the UK has decided to err on the side of protecting economic activity.

    The goal seems not to be to minimise the rate of infection but rather to keep it within manageable bounds given that it cannot be controlled to the point of permanent eradication. It is the mitigation of all the relevant risks to the country - medical, social and economic, all of them closely interrelated - that has to be the aim. I see no reason to think that is not the basis for the advice on which the government is acting and advising.

  • @devc Ah, the old Argument from Authority eh? You know one of Johnson’s heroes is the major in Jaws for keeping the beaches open?

    https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2011/10/18/boris-reveals-his-political-hero-the-mayor-fr

    Hardly reassuring.

    I’ve spent the week watching family suffer with what is 99% likely to be this dreadful disease including my children and and a chronic asthmatic. I’m sat awake right now listening to my son cough and struggle to breathe.

    111 have required us to have hospital treatment twice. We are not in the highest risk brackets.

    It seem the numbers are an interesting academic exercise for some. It’s like you’re going to need direct impact to someone you care about to understand the horror of it. The psychological effects aren’t being considered but it’s going to leave deep scars on everyone. The idea that we want people to catch this soon on a mass scale for some kind of ‘herd immunity’ condemns 1,000s if not 10,000s of unnecessary deaths.

    I suspect the governments position will change rapidly in the next few days as the real numbers and spread become more apparent. Surely they just can’t ignore the advice from the real experts who’ve been dealing with this since the beginning.

    The WHO director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said all possible action should be taken: “Not testing alone. Not contact tracing alone. Not quarantine alone. Not social distancing alone. Do it all.”

    This thing needs all efforts to stop it now. Everything we’ve got. We are not prepared, not even close. Fuck football and fuck tribal politics, we’re way beyond those things being important.

  • Oh must be awful for you and your family @Lloyd2084. I really hope you all come through it all okay.

    I must apologise for my role in the debate. At the moment most of us who are unaffected are looking at the arguments with detached intellectual interest.

    I fear you may be right. Once the ‘horror’ of it becomes real to a significant section of the population the mood music may indeed change.

  • What are your grounds for wanting to rely on the advice of Boris's medical experts in preference to conflicting WHO advice. You do realise this is a pandemic Dev!

  • @bookertease said:
    Oh must be awful for you and your family @Lloyd2084. I really hope you all come through it all okay.

    I must apologise for my role in the debate. At the moment most of us who are unaffected are looking at the arguments with detached intellectual interest.

    I fear you may be right. Once the ‘horror’ of it becomes real to a significant section of the population the mood music may indeed change.

    Thanks and much appreciated. No need for apologies from anyone, I just want people to protect themselves and limit this thing as best we can.

  • I’m actually amazed that so many here think Johnson is saying what his experts are telling him to, as opposed to his experts saying what he tells them to. David Nutt and David Kelly might be able to tell you what governments think of experts telling the truth instead of telling us what they want us to hear.

    If you want to know what experts actually think, you need to listen to those who are not under threat of the government sacking or imprisoning them. Like, maybe the former director of public health Prof John Ashton.

  • I’ve done a little bit of digging but I just can’t seem to turn up any independent experts of anywhere near the standing of John Ashton who think the govt approach is sensible, just some swivel-eyed libertarian loons who don’t believe in the concept of society at all.

  • I've been thinking. We are all going to have lots of time to do that in the next few months. And I've decided I would like to win the next Grand National. I have never actually ridden a horse but hey this is the internet, my view is worth as much as anyone else's, especially those corrupt so called experts. Its obvious when you think about it.
    I am going to get my horse into the lead at the start then I am going to sit facing backwards so I can keep a close eye on my rivals and counter their moves. The horse can look forwards. Bloody obvious isnt it.

    All those so called experts who say that is not the way to do it are obviously wrong and self serving and corrupt into the bargain. Give me a moment and I'll find some minor expert of my own who once rode in a point to point but as he agrees with what him to believe , I will elevate him to the status of horse riding sage. If I don't get to ride in the next Grand national I will point to the 39 riders who lost clearly because they didn't follow my advice. And give me a moment and I'll work up some convoluted conspiracy theory to show why the establishment government are working to suppress my brilliant theory for personal financial gain - one no doubt will once have held shares in a forward sitting saddle company - that explains it.

    Face reality guys. Johnson has no idea how to contain a virus pandemic that threatens to kill large number of people. Nor do I. Nor do you. Nor does (presumably) any poster on this small football forum. nor does the general public. All of us (including Johnson - an otherwise in my view pretty terrible prime Minister) would like this virus to cause the least possible damage to us all.

    fortunately we do have really clever experts who have studied virus transmissions and social behavioural effects all their lives. We have appointed them to be our chief advisers as we believe they are simply the best people with the most knowledge we have. The day has finally come. A serious virus crisis has blown up. We ask the opinion of the experts we employed to advise us. They give us their considered opinion on how best to limit the number of deaths we will suffer - limit not eradicate mind).

    We now have a choice - follow the advice of those experts who understand these things or follow the advice of Bob on the internet. There are no guarantees but seriously which one gives us the best chance of avoiding the highest number of people dieing?

  • Strictly speaking isn't it is the horse that wins the race, the jockey rides the winner?

  • Mind blowing @devc

    I think this is the single worst post I’ve seen on any subject on any website ever.

    Why don’t you drive up here for a cuppa and a handshake and let’s chat again in 7 days?

  • You haven't answered my question, which of course for you is par for the course. I will ask it again, WHY ARE YOU ADAMANT THAT WE SHOULD FOLLOW OUR OWN MEDICAL ADVISERS ADVICE REGARDLESS OF IT BEING CONTRARY TO W.H.O. GUIDANCE WHICH MOST OTHER COUNTRIES APPEAR TO BE FOLLOWING? This is a World problem not just a UK problem.

  • I was originally supportive of our governments approach @DevC and I think I see the logic of what they think they are trying to do. I am sure it is also well-meant by our various experts.

    However, the more that I look into it the more strange our experts informed approach seems.

    You seem to imply that we (as a species rather than country) have no idea how to contain a virus pandemic.

    This (lengthy) article is interesting (and I accept only one point of view):

    https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

    But the relevant part in this context is how the Asian countries have learnt (and mostly acted upon) the lessons from SARS.

    I’m not saying we are wrong with our plan to infect 70-80% of the population (which apparently is around the figure for ‘herd immunity’) but I am definitely coming round to the view that it is a pretty non-empathetic response.

  • Even the experts have different views on the best way to tackle this epidemic. That doesn’t mean we should continue the denigration of expertise, especially for the benefit of self-interested politicians. There isn’t a one size fits all solution as illustrated by the fact that the first confirmed case of the virus in Italy was just 24 hours before the UK. It’s clear the two countries are on different paths. I suspect it’s going to get worse but I don’t share the bleak predictions of @aloysius and @eric_plant

    In the meantime I shall adopt common sense which today involves watching Chippenham Town versus National League South leaders Wealdstone. I’m hoping not to miss any of the goals this time!

  • I’ve actually thumbed up a few of Dev’s posts on this subject, but that post really is plumbing the depths of your repertoire. You’re arguing against a case that literally nobody has made. Back to your old self.

  • I think this might be the last post I make on this subject.
    @Lloyd2084 I fully understand your despair at the moment and your desire for those in authority to “do something” to make it better. It will be hard for you to accept but I think you have to trust that the government are doing their best to minimise the impact of this virus. I really hope your family recovers.
    @bookertease your post while well intentioned illustrates the problem. You have done a bit of reading up in the last couple of days and now think you can double guess the medical experts. Do you honestly think they and their teams have not studied in detail prior outbreaks and factored that into their thinking.
    One final thought. Let us say Johnson had taken a different approach. His advisors had told him what to do.He ignored them for political reasons and it turned out the experts were right and thousands of people died as a result. Would that not have been a disgraceful thing to do.

  • @Malone said:

    @thedieharder said:
    My suggestion would be to pause it, finish it at a later date an then start the 2020-2021 in 2021, with a tight fixture schedule? Could work??

    Starting in 2021 and still expecting it to be finished by May would be one hell of a "tight" fixture list :)
    3-4 games a week?

    Unless you're meaning cutting loads of games out.

    One Tueday one Saturday??

  • Blimey this is a first, I'm actually agreeing with what DevC has to say.
    Strange days indeed...

  • @DevC I am not trying to second guess anyone. I am just looking with a relatively open mind (I hope) at the information out there. I haven't yet reached a (suitably uninformed) view on our governments approach but I think noting it as 'strange' in the context of the rest of the world is a reasonable statement

    The question that I find most interesting is why it appears our experts view is contrary to other experts view (which certainly appears to be the case). It may be that our experts are 'better' than the experts elsewhere but I think it is a legitimate question (as indeed is being asked in parliament) for the experts (and government) to better explain the science for their conclusions.

    For what its worth I think we are putting a lot more emphasis on the behavioural aspect (and as I tend to think the British people are probably the worst in the world for obeying authoritarian dictate we probably have to more than others).

    We do also seem alone in thinking (at least publically) that it is desirable for the majority of the population to contract the virus. Again we could very well be right (and perhaps just being more open and realistic than other countries) but its a brave position to have taken if we come out of this worse than other countries. Saying, which they are in effect, that the cost of this approach is likely to be about 250,000 deaths to the virus also appears a little heartless.

    It doesn't mean that I disagree with what we are doing, just that I find it strange and (from a current position of reasonable health) interesting. I think if I was in an at risk group I may have a different opinion.

  • Let us say Johnson had taken a different approach. His advisors had told him what to do.He ignored them for political reasons and it turned out the experts were right and thousands of people died as a result. Would that not have been a disgraceful thing to do.

    Genuine question @DevC, what makes you think this isn’t exactly what he’s doing? All the available evidence points to this scenario being exactly what our government is doing. When every single available expert (apart from the one whose job currently depends on them saying what the government wants them to say), is telling us the strategy is a terrible decision. From previous holders of that very position, to the World Health Organization, to the public health advisors of every other country, especially countries who are a month or two ahead of us in the outbreak curve - everyone is saying we’re making a potentially catastrophic error. So, why do you have so much trust in one expert, and total disdain for every other expert in the world? What about the ex director of the WHO? Is he an expert?

    Side question, we also now know that the nudge unit (now officially known as the Behavioural Insights Team) had a large hand in drafting Johnson’s statements. Why do you think that might be?

  • While I am loathe to second-guess anyone, I'm led to believe the reason why we're taking a different path from the rest of the world is because the UK has decided to treat this as a medium term pandemic rather than a short term crisis. Given a vaccine won't be available until after next winter, the measures taken by other countries to isolate individuals will have to be effect for a very long time indeed to work. Cutting out infections now is fine - and the hope is that the virus will not be as dangerous in the summer - but come next winter it will be just as lethal and much more widespread.

    By going for the herd-immunity alternative, the UK is accepting that people will get coronavirus but front loading it so it mostly goes to the young and healthy, while trying to keep those who are more vulnerable isolated. That does two things: flattens out any spike in emergency treatment, so keeping hospitals from collapsing under the strain. And building up natural immunity in enough people so that when next winter comes, the disease struggles to spread.

    The best article I've read on this explaining the science is in today's Times - I strongly recommend signing up for the free trial or going out to buy a paper if you don't already subscribe. To be effective 60% of the population has to build up immunity (that's if each person with covid-19 infects 2.5 others, the current expectation). It's a risky strategy with many downsides but I can see why the government have opted for it over the alternatives.

    So why is the WHO not recommending this for other countries? Well - others don't have as comprehensive or as sophisticated a healthcare system as the UK, so won't be able to cope with the massive rate of infections we're encouraging here. The WHO has to set policy for the world but this isn't really a one-size-fits-all situation. The downside to Britain going it alone is that we become potentially lethal to the rest of the world should travel restrictions be lifted before a vaccine is created. Hence why there's so much disquiet at the way we're operating on the world stage.

    Sorry if this makes me 'no fun at parties'. But this virus will have major implications long after the end of the football season. Hopefully a few more people on here are beginning to see this then perhaps they were prepared to yesterday.

    Here's the article btw: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-how-herd-instincts-can-help-to-limit-the-damage-kb6wpcbhd

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