Twizz has got it right. I was trying to make the point that form fluctuates and although we had a bad patch over Christmas/January (mainly due to playing so many of the top teams in quick succession) we have improved recently. Momentum is a big factor in football and if we can beat Tranmere on Saturday, I believe we can go on a good run again even though we still have some very tough fixtures coming up.
I agree. I'm having a look at the fixtures we've got left, coupled with the players we've now got available, and I think we could be on the verge of something very special indeed.
Seasons are often about when you time your good runs and bad runs and I think we might look back on this one as having done it perfectly.
The clocks haven't gone back yet and we are safe from relegation. That by my yardstick is a good season. Anything else is a bonus. (Regardless of what happens from now to the end of the season, the first half of the season was an incredible achievement with credit to everyone concerned).
You gotta dream. To be fair all the teams around us have some very tough fixtures as well and I still think when you've got games in hand the pressure is to win them all. No room for mistakes, which is why (though I'm sad about the lack of a Cup run) I'm glad we've got points in the bag. All we can do is keeping adding to them by hook or by crook.
I think our remaining fixtures look pretty good on paper. Doncaster and Coventry away, Rotherham at home perhaps the toughest. The rest should be a walk in the park
I can see us winning 6 of the last 12 games with Fred and Smyth causing some real problems for the opposition. A target of 20 or so points out of the remaining 36 is well within our reach. Get Grimmer back. Reasons to be optimistic we can reach the playoffs. You only need to finish 6th. Playoffs are a lottery. Anything can happen. I think the next few weeks are going to be fun. Remember at the start of the season we were one of the favourites to be relegated. We never dreamed we’d be in this position. Let’s enjoy.
@LX1 said:
Not being positive or negative here just making a statistical observation..
When it is quoted that a team has won '8 of their last 10,' you can immediately deduce that they have also won '8 out of their last 11,' which doesn't sound quite as good.
Quite.
In the example of the 4 wins from 7, that's a pretty decent run. 4 from 8 wouldn't be too bad either.
But being 4 from 11, that's qetting midtable at utter best.
I don’t disagree with your argument Malone, but I was making a point about our most recent results and how form fluctuates. If you go back 15 or 20 games I’m sure the statistics would look even better, but that’s not a reflection of recent (I’ll resist the temptation to use capital letters) form.
@bookertease said:
The clocks haven't gone back yet and we are safe from relegation. That by my yardstick is a good season. Anything else is a bonus. (Regardless of what happens from now to the end of the season, the first half of the season was an incredible achievement with credit to everyone concerned).
Please don’t put your clocks back on 29 March @bookertease or you’ll miss all but the last 20 minutes of the Rotherham game (assuming you normally arrive at Adams Park at 2.30pm.
@glasshalffull said:
I don’t disagree with your argument Malone, but I was making a point about our most recent results and how form fluctuates. If you go back 15 or 20 games I’m sure the statistics would look even better, but that’s not a reflection of recent (I’ll resist the temptation to use capital letters) form.
Very true.
As someone else said, the only thing that really matters is the 32 game record so far. Which has given us an incredible opportunity over a now 12 game season
@bookertease said:
The clocks haven't gone back yet and we are safe from relegation. That by my yardstick is a good season. Anything else is a bonus. (Regardless of what happens from now to the end of the season, the first half of the season was an incredible achievement with credit to everyone concerned).
Please don’t put your clocks back on 29 March @bookertease or you’ll miss all but the last 20 minutes of the Rotherham game (assuming you normally arrive at Adams Park at 2.30pm.
He might see all the second half if Allsop is playing!
After today's games, of the three teams below us in the play-offs, Sunderland have the lowest PPG and are on course to finish with 73 points. The games in hand make it a bit more complicated, but that's a rough guide of what the cut-off for 6th might be. We're currently on course for 78.
@chairboyscentral said:
After today's games, of the three teams below us in the play-offs, Sunderland have the lowest PPG and are on course to finish with 73 points. The games in hand make it a bit more complicated, but that's a rough guide of what the cut-off for 6th might be. We're currently on course for 78.
Does that mean anything? Sunderland were awful for the first half of the season, their PPG for the last manager and the first 10 or so games with the current manager are surely nowhere near their PPG since.
Twists and turns aplenty still to come I'm sure, but that's the state of play at the moment. A number of other teams not out out play-off contention, but you'd have to say those five are the frontrunners.
All very lovely stats but surely as the games left get fewer the deviation from the average gets greater and these numbers mean absolutely nothing.
As in most seasons. One team will make a magic late run and another will fall away in spectacular fashion.
I still think we can win the league or finish 12th. Plenty to look forward to.
Obviously the numbers won't stay consistent, but it's about as good a guide as you can get at the moment. If be confident of 20 more points being enough for 6th.
The table will certainly be hugely interesting by the time we play our second next game on 14th March.
Loads of the games in hand will have been made up on us by then.
But we just have to stick to our job and build some momentum, as 4 away games in the next 5 is a tough ask!
If we can stay in the mixer over the next 6 games, the last 5 look as good a chance to push forward as we could hope for on paper!
Obviously plenty of time left for things to happen, but if we can keep our first team fit for the run in, I'm confident of play offs and still hopeful of grabbing an auto spot. Our record with both Charles and Fred in the side must be incredible.
Comments
Twizz has got it right. I was trying to make the point that form fluctuates and although we had a bad patch over Christmas/January (mainly due to playing so many of the top teams in quick succession) we have improved recently. Momentum is a big factor in football and if we can beat Tranmere on Saturday, I believe we can go on a good run again even though we still have some very tough fixtures coming up.
I agree. I'm having a look at the fixtures we've got left, coupled with the players we've now got available, and I think we could be on the verge of something very special indeed.
Seasons are often about when you time your good runs and bad runs and I think we might look back on this one as having done it perfectly.
(still wish we'd play Stockdale in goal mind)
The clocks haven't gone back yet and we are safe from relegation. That by my yardstick is a good season. Anything else is a bonus. (Regardless of what happens from now to the end of the season, the first half of the season was an incredible achievement with credit to everyone concerned).
You gotta dream. To be fair all the teams around us have some very tough fixtures as well and I still think when you've got games in hand the pressure is to win them all. No room for mistakes, which is why (though I'm sad about the lack of a Cup run) I'm glad we've got points in the bag. All we can do is keeping adding to them by hook or by crook.
I think our remaining fixtures look pretty good on paper. Doncaster and Coventry away, Rotherham at home perhaps the toughest. The rest should be a walk in the park
If we go LWLWLWLWLWLW until the end of the season, we'll finish on 74 points - should be enough for the play-offs!
My money is on us finishing on 74 points, although not quite by form of WLWL.....
I can see us winning 6 of the last 12 games with Fred and Smyth causing some real problems for the opposition. A target of 20 or so points out of the remaining 36 is well within our reach. Get Grimmer back. Reasons to be optimistic we can reach the playoffs. You only need to finish 6th. Playoffs are a lottery. Anything can happen. I think the next few weeks are going to be fun. Remember at the start of the season we were one of the favourites to be relegated. We never dreamed we’d be in this position. Let’s enjoy.
Quite.
In the example of the 4 wins from 7, that's a pretty decent run. 4 from 8 wouldn't be too bad either.
But being 4 from 11, that's qetting midtable at utter best.
I don’t disagree with your argument Malone, but I was making a point about our most recent results and how form fluctuates. If you go back 15 or 20 games I’m sure the statistics would look even better, but that’s not a reflection of recent (I’ll resist the temptation to use capital letters) form.
Please don’t put your clocks back on 29 March @bookertease or you’ll miss all but the last 20 minutes of the Rotherham game (assuming you normally arrive at Adams Park at 2.30pm.
Spring forward Fall backwards.
Good point, well made! Thanks @micra. I did wonder why no one was at work when I got in on Monday 28 October last year...
Very true.
As someone else said, the only thing that really matters is the 32 game record so far. Which has given us an incredible opportunity over a now 12 game season
@micra said:
He might see all the second half if Allsop is playing!
After today's games, of the three teams below us in the play-offs, Sunderland have the lowest PPG and are on course to finish with 73 points. The games in hand make it a bit more complicated, but that's a rough guide of what the cut-off for 6th might be. We're currently on course for 78.
Does that mean anything? Sunderland were awful for the first half of the season, their PPG for the last manager and the first 10 or so games with the current manager are surely nowhere near their PPG since.
I'll have a look at the last 10
If nothing else, it means we'll have a good idea of where we stand in three weeks' time.
The fishy is always fun for a bit of predicting.
https://thefishy.co.uk/football-calculator.php
Last 10 games:
Sunderland - 2.5 PPG, projected total 87
Fleetwood - 1.9 PPG, 78
Pompey - 1.9 PPG, 77
Wycombe - 1.6 PPG, 76
Peterborough - 1.9 PPG, 75
Twists and turns aplenty still to come I'm sure, but that's the state of play at the moment. A number of other teams not out out play-off contention, but you'd have to say those five are the frontrunners.
All very lovely stats but surely as the games left get fewer the deviation from the average gets greater and these numbers mean absolutely nothing.
As in most seasons. One team will make a magic late run and another will fall away in spectacular fashion.
I still think we can win the league or finish 12th. Plenty to look forward to.
Righty's passive aggressive responses to everything chairboyscentral posts are getting a bit creepy aren't they?
Obviously the numbers won't stay consistent, but it's about as good a guide as you can get at the moment. If be confident of 20 more points being enough for 6th.
Perfect activity for a Sunday afternoon this...
Somehow I've ended up with
Portsmouth (seemingly out of nowhere)- 90
Coventry - 89
Sunderland - 87
Rotherham - 84
Peterborough - 81
Wycombe - 81
Oxford - 78
Fleetwood - 77
Ipswich - 75
Hope there's plenty of hotels in Wearside in May...
So it's going to the final day? ?
The table will certainly be hugely interesting by the time we play our second next game on 14th March.
Loads of the games in hand will have been made up on us by then.
But we just have to stick to our job and build some momentum, as 4 away games in the next 5 is a tough ask!
If we can stay in the mixer over the next 6 games, the last 5 look as good a chance to push forward as we could hope for on paper!
Obviously plenty of time left for things to happen, but if we can keep our first team fit for the run in, I'm confident of play offs and still hopeful of grabbing an auto spot. Our record with both Charles and Fred in the side must be incredible.
Played 6, won 4, drawn 2 with them both in the side
Didn't realise it was such a small sample, but still impressive.